Property Market 2020

neutral guy

There will be SUPPLY only and no demand when people will dont have jobs ! Talking about Supply and demand dont forget talk about buying force ! I perfectly remember 2009 when nobody did not build and nobody did not buy !

bbari

neutral guy wrote: »

I dont see the difference pay the rent or waste money paying bank interest.

When you pay €1,000 rent, thats €1,000 "wasted".
When you pay €1,000 mortgage, €300 will be "wasted" to pay bank interest and the balance will be paid off the capital.

neutral guy

bbari wrote: »

When you pay €1,000 rent, thats €1,000 "wasted".
When you pay €1,000 mortgage, €300 will be "wasted" to pay bank interest and the balance will be paid off the capital.

I tell you simple thing.Taking mortgage now and selling your house later you will never get all your money back !
For example,my friend bought house for 220K in 2004.
He paid back to the bank about 300K
Today his house cost 200K.
And this is Fact !
Any property in Ireland did not brought to any house owner 30 per cent rise in price per last 15 years ! Unless property was bought in recession time.

The Belly

bbari wrote: »

When you pay €1,000 rent, thats €1,000 "wasted".
When you pay €1,000 mortgage, €300 will be "wasted" to pay bank interest and the balance will be paid off the capital.

Not entirely correct your forgetting a few others

Property maintenance cost
Property tax
Estate management fees
No flexibilty to move
Negative equity
Interest rate rises

bbari

neutral guy wrote: »

I tell you simple thing.Taking mortgage now and selling your house later you will never get all your money back !
For example,my friend bought house for 220K in 2004.
He paid back to the bank about 300K
Today his house cost 200K.
And this is Fact !
Any property in Ireland did not brought to any house owner 30 per cent rise in price per last 15 years ! Unless property was bought in recession time.

Looking at it that way, I agree with you.

ebayissues

neutral guy wrote: »

I tell you simple thing.Taking mortgage now and selling your house later you will never get all your money back !
For example,my friend bought house for 220K in 2004.
He paid back to the bank about 300K
Today his house cost 200K.
And this is Fact !
Any property in Ireland did not brought to any house owner 30 per cent rise in price per last 15 years ! Unless property was bought in recession time.

Well, you'll get some of your money back, however as for rent you'll get absolutely zero, big fat zero.

neutral guy

ebayissues wrote: »

however as for rent you'll get absolutely zero, big fat zero.

I will get part of my money paid for rent back buying house at cheaper price during the recession.

Bass Reeves

neutral guy wrote: »

There will be SUPPLY only and no demand when people will dont have jobs ! Talking about Supply and demand dont forget talk about buying force ! I perfectly remember 2009 when nobody did not build and nobody did not buy !

From about late 2006 on some developers were completing sites before selling houses. This was because banks were willing to find the full development and prices were riding so fast that it seemed a guarantee to make large profits. Banks were lending 110% mortgages to borrowers and 4-5 times wages were not uncommon.

When it started to slow down builders and banks exasperated it. Builders by trying to keep crews together and banks continued to lend to developers. On top of that lending rates went from 2-3% to 5%+

This time banks are not over lending to either developers or borrowers. Builders have no stock of completed houses. This slowdown should beore like 2002-2004 rather than 2008-2014

cute geoge

I see a glut of second hand houses after coming on the market in our local town with no drop in asking prices anyway .The government and all the other stake holder will all do there level best to prevent house prices dropping in price .The next 6 months will tell a lot

neutral guy

Bass Reeves wrote: »

From about late 2006 on some developers were completing sites before selling houses. This was because banks were willing to find the full development and prices were riding so fast that it seemed a guarantee to make large profits. Banks were lending 110% mortgages to borrowers and 4-5 times wages were not uncommon.

When it started to slow down builders and banks exasperated it. Builders by trying to keep crews together and banks continued to lend to developers. On top of that lending rates went from 2-3% to 5%+

This time banks are not over lending to either developers or borrowers. Builders have no stock of completed houses. This slowdown should beore like 2002-2004 rather than 2008-2014

This time lending cockoo funds and leverage investors from abroad what is a lot higher risk investors than local banks in Ireland.So for that reason I suppose the crisis on property market wll be bigger than in 2008.The next thing we forget another important thing as second hand property market which is play his important part of supply also.There will be plenty unemployed builders when recession will be started and bussines on second hand market will back to usual as per 2008 recession.I know the guys who was buying old houses for 30/40K in County Louth and after "some renovation" was selling them for 90/120K.I could buy 2 beds house in cetral part of Dundalk for 23K in 2010 ! Which now cost 95K ! When similar house in 2005 cost 145K !!!The people who has his own way in life and some cash in pocket will enjoy 2021 recession I think.

Dylan94

cute geoge wrote: »

I see a glut of second hand houses after coming on the market in our local town with no drop in asking prices anyway .The government and all the other stake holder will all do there level best to prevent house prices dropping in price .The next 6 months will tell a lot

I am seeing the same in the areas that I am looking at. Has been a sudden surge of houses, all with asking prices similar to what would be expected pre covid.

neutral guy

cute geoge wrote: »

I see a glut of second hand houses after coming on the market in our local town with no drop in asking prices anyway .The government and all the other stake holder will all do there level best to prevent house prices dropping in price .The next 6 months will tell a lot

I see them too,some of them 2 years for sale already.

neutral guy

By my own look the houses in Dublin is mad overpriced and there is huge buble.I could buy brand new 3 beds house at good location for 230K 60/70km from Dublin,the good brand new car for another 100K !!! And I will still have 200K left in my pocket !And believe me guys,with 200K left I will travel to work to Dublin in my great car with smile on my face !

0gac3yjefb5sv7

Can't see Dublin city prices falling much at all.

Most still going 10pc over asking.

Government won't build a thing in a recession so prices will stay the say or increase.

Geuze

neutral guy wrote: »

I tell you simple thing.Taking mortgage now and selling your house later you will never get all your money back !
For example,my friend bought house for 220K in 2004.
He paid back to the bank about 300K
Today his house cost 200K.
And this is Fact !
Any property in Ireland did not brought to any house owner 30 per cent rise in price per last 15 years ! Unless property was bought in recession time.

2004 = 220k

2020 = 200k

Yes, this is common.

2007 was the peak, so 2004 prices were high.

So a 20k capital loss if sold today.

Note that although interest was paid, the owner was housed, i.e. think of the interest payments as the price of housing.

Mic 1972

TheSheriff wrote: »

Starting to see alot more supply come on stream now in Dublin which is great to see. Not noticing any decrease in demand, which I think at our price point (400k-500k) is reflected in the CBs info that tax returns have been marginally impacted. Lockdown simply didn't impact the majority of those competing in this bracket.

Prices would be the same as pre Covid. No drastic increases. Harder to get viewings organised however. You can't just rock up out of nowhere for an open viewing anymore, which we regularly did.

We were at two viewings this morning and I can sadly report things are as competitive as ever. Strict time limits enforced for viewings. The next couple were waiting outside as we left.

Did someone say supply was trivial ??

Yep, the market is completely unaffected by Covid and economic crisis. It's strange but true

neutral guy

MattS1 wrote: »

Can't see Dublin city prices falling much at all.

Most still going 10pc over asking.

Government won't build a thing in a recession so prices will stay the say or increase.

When people will not have jobs / they will not pay rents and emigrating / when people will not pay rents and emigrating / the houses owners will have dealing with banks/when house owners will have dealing with banks /the government will have save the banks. Standard scenario with standard leverage investors houses on sale.Today in my town only 25 houses for rent,in 2009 there was about 290.There will be huge supply and no demand at all as last recession I think.

Australia calling :

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-04/australia-s-economic-slump-threatens-openness-to-immigration?srnd=premium-europe

Edit : The economy is dead already and we are alive just because government pay Covid payments and wage subsidies.I with horror waiting when payments will stopped and government will taking his money back trough the taxes .When people will have pay bigger taxes getting smaller wages or not getting wages at all that gona be more than serious .

ebayissues

Anyone buying in the 400K - 500K bracket would have good jobs and most likely be unaffected negatively by the covid pandemic.

Ush1

My brother went to view a house around the corner from mine that was up for 350k. First day of showings and bidding was already at 360k.

stayback

ebayissues wrote: »

Anyone buying in the 400K - 500K bracket would have good jobs and most likely be unaffected negatively by the covid pandemic.

That’s a very sweeping statement . I have a so called “good job” but have been on the COVID subsidy and my wife is on the COVID subsidy. We bought a house for 450k we are managing because we have savings but only for that we were fuc***. We will hopefully go back to pay without subsidy soon.
This pandemic has hit everyone bar some public servants.

cute geoge

stayback wrote: »

That’s a very sweeping statement . I have a so called “good job” but have been on the COVID subsidy and my wife is on the COVID subsidy. We bought a house for 450k we are managing because we have savings but only for that we were fuc***. We will hopefully go back to pay without subsidy soon.
This pandemic has hit everyone bar some public servants.

should that not read
The pandemic has hit everyone bar ALL public servants

stayback

cute geoge wrote: »

should that not read
The pandemic has hit everyone bar ALL public servants

Probably ...

Darc19

neutral guy wrote: »

By my own look the houses in Dublin is mad overpriced and there is huge buble.I could buy brand new 3 beds house at good location for 230K 60/70km from Dublin,the good brand new car for another 100K !!! And I will still have 200K left in my pocket !And believe me guys,with 200K left I will travel to work to Dublin in my great car with smile on my face !

And at 6pm after an hour in traffic and still not past Rathcoole, that smile will be gone.

And that's why people pay a premium for living in a city.

TheSheriff

stayback wrote: »

That’s a very sweeping statement . I have a so called “good job” but have been on the COVID subsidy and my wife is on the COVID subsidy. We bought a house for 450k we are managing because we have savings but only for that we were fuc***. We will hopefully go back to pay without subsidy soon.
This pandemic has hit everyone bar some public servants.

You've also made a sweeping statement re public servants.

Myself and other half are not public servants and have not been impacted by Covid other than having to stay inside.

Neither is anyone in our wider friend group/ family etc.

It's obviously industry dependent.

farmerval

Something that has been overlooked in the housing market is that in the last boom, which was the biggest construction boom ever in Ireland by a long long way was the role of tax incentives introduced by Fianna Fail.
I have no idea much in Dublin but in places like Waterford and Clonmel the huge glut of apartments all came from the various tax incentive schemes.
The funny thing is, all those properties are now occupied. Last week there was not one apartment for sale n Daft in Clonmel. Clonmel is a busy town with a really big industrial base, and yet there isn't one apartment for sale?
It would be massively distrusted but maybe the Gov needs to look again at tax incentives for building. The tax incentives if properly used might help move the market forward.
Housing is the Number 1 issue this Government is facing, all housing social and private. The last Government thought it was only social. The private market that supplied all the excess in the system to the social housing requirements through HAP etc has no capacity left.
Right now tax incentives to supply housing would be a lot more sensible than to film making or any other marginal enterprise.
Over the years we stayed in holiday accommodation that would never exist only for tax incentives. Without doubt that FF Government abused tax incentive schemes completely, every FF TD wanted to announce part of their local town as Section 23 or Section 50 or whatever other scheme. A properly focused set of schemes could make a big difference.

Smouse156

Shelga wrote: »

I have an offer in on a house that needs work, but now I’m reconsidering waiting another 6 months. I’m already offering near the top of what I can afford, but I could see myself living there for 10+ years if necessary.

I’m living at home and not paying rent, so can afford to sit tight and just save, but I’m dying to get out.

I really don’t know what to do. What would people advise?

In similar situation, WFH and no rent. Going to wait until next year and the overall picture is clearer

lastusername

I think anyone who thinks there will be big price drops is dreaming. The one big factor determining whether big drops will happen is simply affordability - whether people can afford the prices sellers want.

Yes, there is a widespread unemployment and the economy is being propped up, but many people still have significant savings and even more since lockdown. There is €180 billion on deposit in Irish banks. Many businesses are thriving due to the current crisis and many others are largely unaffected. Hundreds of thousands of people are still in jobs, with savings, still really wanting a home of their own.

That's still the competition when you want to buy a house which means I don't see any major drops. It's not like the last recession which was primarily the result of property speculation and reckless lending. It's the complete opposite this time, especially on the latter.

You can also combine all of the above with increased consumer sentiment as people get more confident about getting out and about and spending their money, helping to get the economy back up on its feet for more businesses. Developments on the Covid treatment and vaccine front will (hopefully) accelerate all this too.

Shelga

lastusername wrote: »

I think anyone who thinks there will be big price drops is dreaming. The one big factor determining whether big drops will happen is simply affordability - whether people can afford the prices sellers want.

Yes, there is a widespread unemployment and the economy is being propped up, but many people still have significant savings and even more since lockdown. There is €180 billion on deposit in Irish banks. Many businesses are thriving due to the current crisis and many others are largely unaffected. Hundreds of thousands of people are still in jobs, with savings, still really wanting a home of their own.

That's still the competition when you want to buy a house which means I don't see any major drops. It's not like the last recession which was primarily the result of property speculation and reckless lending. It's the complete opposite this time, especially on the latter.

You can also combine all of the above with increased consumer sentiment as people get more confident about getting out and about and spending their money, helping to get the economy back up on its feet for more businesses. Developments on the Covid treatment and vaccine front will (hopefully) accelerate all this too.

I agree with all you say, but also when the baseline predictions for the economy are a massive decline, how can that not have an impact on prices?

I am going back and forth on this every few hours to be honest!

JJJackal

stayback wrote: »

That’s a very sweeping statement . I have a so called “good job” but have been on the COVID subsidy and my wife is on the COVID subsidy. We bought a house for 450k we are managing because we have savings but only for that we were fuc***. We will hopefully go back to pay without subsidy soon.
This pandemic has hit everyone bar some public servants.

You could have asked for a mortgage break - so to say you were fuc*** would not be true.

JJJackal

neutral guy wrote: »

By my own look the houses in Dublin is mad overpriced and there is huge buble.I could buy brand new 3 beds house at good location for 230K 60/70km from Dublin,the good brand new car for another 100K !!! And I will still have 200K left in my pocket !And believe me guys,with 200K left I will travel to work to Dublin in my great car with smile on my face !

Of note for your 100,000 car (presumably you would be borrowing in this scenario), you will only likely be able to get a loan for 5 years (I cant imagine a bank giving you a 100,000 loan for a car). If at end you wanted to own it fully, your repayments would be over 2,000 a month and the cost of financing the loan ie interest would be north of 23,000...

Interestingly your car will only be worth, if your are lucky after 5 years, 30,000 to 40,000 - likely 15% depreciation at minimum per year - limited number of people who want to buy a 5 year old car for the same price as a new one. Your house outside Dublin will have increased a little in value at best in current climate. You will have spent an extra 2 hours a day commuting plus fuel plus parking. If you work 40 weeks a year ie 200 weeks or 1000 days over 5 years you will have spent an extra 2000 hours in your car!

Plus in 5 years your car has alot of miles on it and you could need to consider changing - lucky you have 200k left to buy another car!