Property Market 2020

SozBbz

fret_wimp2 wrote: »

Makes sense, so a new build is not turnkey.
So which is more desirable, a completely new, new build, or one that was a new build a few years ago, has been lived in for 4-5 years and is technically now "turnkey"?
Or would this be considered no different to any other 2nd hand property be it 5 years old or 50 if they are both "turnkey"?

To me, turnkey is a property that doesnt require money to be spent on it in the short term - so it could be a new build if the builder has fitted out the place and all you have to do is move in your furniture. So it could be a newbuild, a relatively new build or equally it could be a Victorian era property. It doesnt matter how old it is, its about condition.

If someone has done all that can be done to a Victorian era property - retrofitted for energy efficiency including upgrading windows and loft insulation, damp proof course, modern decor, new kitchens and bathrooms..... then to me thats a turnkey property.

GreeBo

Ush1 wrote: »

There is no hyperbole, I did these commutes.

Saying during rush hour you can get from anywhere in Dublin on public transport to the city centre in under an hour is simply not true.

I didn't mention Rathmines etc...to talk about how quick they can get in, I'm pointing out that sitting on bus from Tallaght you will be at a standstill multiple points along the way for periods of time.

Lets be kind and say its an hour, thats an hour for a 6km journey, its hardly anything to write home about!

Bringing walking into it is also disingenuous, very few people can walk an hour to work everyday, what about creches, schools, weather, in any case its over an hour from Rathfarnham village to grafton st by foot, and Rathfarnham is by no means against the M50. Try doing it from Knocklyon for example.

SozBbz

Assetbacked wrote: »

It's funny to note that there is a generation with no DIY abilities but at the same time it is perfectly understandable and, to be honest, expected considering the heavy restrictions on what changes can be made to a rental property. Even changing the curtains or couches in a rental needs landlord sign off! I'm not commenting on whether it should be possible to paint and refloor your rental, just observing that lacking DIY skills is perfectly normal in the modern day.

I agree that theres a lack of skills and I'd also say that theres an expectation for immediate gratification. My parents generation would have bought houses and done them up room at a time. A lot of people my age won't live with a less than ideal house and make incremental improvements.

I'm guilty of it myself - changing a bulb and a fuse is about my limit, and I wish I was more capable.
When I first moved out on my own I couldn't even cook. I've recified that, self taught but I'm now quite a good cook. I would struggle with the confidence to attempt a lot of DIY jobs though.

We need some changes in education I feel - some sort of hybrid home economics/basic diy course thats compulsory for all students.
- cooking and nutrition (less focus on making fairy cakes)
- repair of clothes and household items (again, i don't think everyone needs to be able to knit a wolly jumper, but basic repair skills would be useful)
- budgeting and financial education

Maybe if people understood the above better, they wouldnt be so averse to taking on a project.

Assetbacked

GreeBo wrote: »

Lets be kind and say its an hour, thats an hour for a 6km journey, its hardly anything to write home about!

It's a reason to not compare Dublin to NY and London, as I was trying to do!

GreeBo

SozBbz wrote: »

I agree that theres a lack of skills and I'd also say that theres an expectation for immediate gratification. My parents generation would have bought houses and done them up room at a time. A lot of people my age won't live with a less than ideal house and make incremental improvements.

I'm guilty of it myself - changing a bulb and a fuse is about my limit, and I wish I was more capable.
When I first moved out on my own I couldn't even cook. I've recified that, self taught but I'm now quite a good cook. I would struggle with the confidence to attempt a lot of DIY jobs though.

We need some changes in education I feel - some sort of hybrid home economics/basic diy course thats compulsory for all students.
- cooking and nutrition (less focus on making fairy cakes)
- repair of clothes and household items (again, i don't think everyone needs to be able to knit a wolly jumper, but basic repair skills would be useful)
- budgeting and financial education

Maybe if people understood the above better, they wouldnt be so averse to taking on a project.

I was going to post the same regarding expectation. It seems more people these days turn their nose up at a property that would need painting or new carpets even, nevermine something that would require "actual" work like new kitchens/windows etc.

Its great for people like me as I can buy structurally sound but "dirty" houses for cheap, but its not sustainable and means that lots of houses that would be great first time buyer/fixer-uppers get taken by investors rather than owners.

Buying something that needs work, even if you are not doing it yourself is the tried and tested way to get on the property ladder but seems to have died off.

Assetbacked

GreeBo wrote: »

Lets be kind and say its an hour, thats an hour for a 6km journey, its hardly anything to write home about!

It's a reason to not compare Dublin to NY and London, as I was trying to do!

GreeBo

Assetbacked wrote: »

It's a reason to not compare Dublin to NY and London, as I was trying to do!

But if it already takes an hour to travel 6KM with "estate" density housing, moving to higher densities just wont work.
If you live near/on a luas it will be more difficult to get on, if you dont then your bus is even more packed.

Heaven forbid you live in Tallaght and want to get to Sandyford for example, a journey of 10KM, other than making your own way by foot, car or bike you are screwed.

Even from Rathfarnham its impossible and its 5KM.

Ush1

GreeBo wrote: »

But if it already takes an hour to travel 6KM with "estate" density housing, moving to higher densities just wont work.
If you live near/on a luas it will be more difficult to get on, if you dont then your bus is even more packed.

Heaven forbid you live in Tallaght and want to get to Sandyford for example, a journey of 10KM, other than making your own way by foot, car or bike you are screwed.

Even from Rathfarnham its impossible and its 5KM.

I did Tallaght to Blackrock, that's another fun one. M50 on to the dreaded N11.

Public transport in Dublin is slow and infrequent, Bus Connects is long overdue. Taking private transport is normally equally frustrating.

Assetbacked

GreeBo wrote: »

But if it already takes an hour to travel 6KM with "estate" density housing, moving to higher densities just wont work.
If you live near/on a luas it will be more difficult to get on, if you dont then your bus is even more packed.

Heaven forbid you live in Tallaght and want to get to Sandyford for example, a journey of 10KM, other than making your own way by foot, car or bike you are screwed.

Even from Rathfarnham its impossible and its 5KM.

Tallaght isn't even inside the M50 so again, tangent. Now you're talking about going Tallaght to Sandyford, which goes completely off track again!

But engaging with that point, to drive from Tallaght to Sandyford in rush hour traffic, does that take more than an hour?

I don't understand what you are getting at here; I am talking about higher density in the city centre combined with lower density 3-5 storey apartment blocks in the suburbs to ensure we get the number of rentals we need and try to significantly reduce the cost of renting. The current situation involves young, flexible workers working in the city centre yet renting out in Dundrum, Castleknock, Blackrock etc. and as a result taking up houses and apartments which should be more for families who want to be settled. Look at the state of public transport as a result of the current situation.

If you have walked around the suburbs, you do see small scale apartment blocks of maximum five storeys and they most certainly do not ruin the character of the area. It is how German towns and cities look; and aids ensuring that there is plenty of rental supply which of course assists with keeping rents low.

Amirani

The Belly wrote: »

As we move through the phases one element is becoming clear unemployment is going to remain very high across all sectors of the economy.

I don't think that's becoming clear at all.

Bass Reeves

stinger31 wrote: »

This is exactly the situation that myself and the OH are in. We're selling and cashing in now. otherwise we'll be kicking ourselves. We've spoken to EA ,parents and in fact all our close friends (some are doing the same). The opinion is the same with every single person agreeing that huge reductions are on the way. So we're going with it and if we get near our asking we'll be happy.

I personally see the sh1t hitting the fan in the next few month and want out now.

You are working on the assumption that it's double or quits. What I mean by this that you intend to sell now at or near present prices and you consider that you will be able to by at a lower price in 1-3 years time.

Alot of people are making assumptions based on 2008-2014. There are differences first there was a huge artificial overhand in 2008 from two sources investors and builder not pre selling.Along with job losses this exasperated the slump in house prices in 2008.

This time there are not the same issues with overhangs. What you are depending on is repossessions and government build housing to collapse prices.

While you are lucky you will not renting in the shirt term how long can you live with your parents. If you were paying rent the double or quits senario would not be completely in play. I think 20% drop is unlikely 5-15% possible but the probability is that any drop will be sub 10%.

Based on this when selling your property at present if the only offer is 10% below market will you accept

brisan

LJ12345 wrote: »

The IT/Sherry Fitz overview on the market at the moment. It won’t be to everyone’s liking but the market is currently steady.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/construction/housing-crisis-set-to-worsen-as-sellers-delay-bringing-homes-to-market-1.4293559?mode=amp

Leading EA says market is steady
No surprise there
IT owns MyHome.ie
So no surprise there either

brisan

ebayissues wrote: »

As reported by the Journal, AIB have reversed their decision not to lend to those on WSS.

Bunch of cowards.

If you read the full article they will now accept applications for mortgages from those on covid payments
They will however continue to stress test those applications as normal
Accepting applications and approving those applications are 2 different things

El Gato De Negocios

We went to see a property about 4 weeks ago in Knocklyon. 4 bed semi, decent enough size, garden was small enough. House was grand but the current occupants had started some renovations but not completed them (adding an ensuite iirc and a partial garage conversion). Was a grand house, far from spectacular imo. It was guiding at €595 and when we went to see it the highest offer was €565. Went sale agreed the other day for €616. It was only bought by the current owners in May of last year for €595.

Bass Reeves

Statutory Ape wrote: »

We went to see a property about 4 weeks ago in Knocklyon. 4 bed semi, decent enough size, garden was small enough. House was grand but the current occupants had started some renovations but not completed them (adding an ensuite iirc and a partial garage conversion). Was a grand house, far from spectacular imo. It was guiding at €595 and when we went to see it the highest offer was €565. Went sale agreed the other day for €616. It was only bought by the current owners in May of last year for €595.

Ya 25% drop I can see it clearly now. Dublin market has been more or less static for 15 months pre COVID. This indicates that it's still more or less static. That the price range property and the state(unfinished renovation) where you should see imminent pressure points while one swallow dose not make a summer, it also indicates that winter is not here yet.

Too many game of thrones fans ''winter is comming''. But while we all know winter is coming it hard to predict it's arrival and even harder to predict the winter/weather we will get

GreeBo

Assetbacked wrote: »

Tallaght isn't even inside the M50 so again, tangent. Now you're talking about going Tallaght to Sandyford, which goes completely off track again!

Apologies, I meant Knocklyon.
its only off track if you are willing to assume that everyone works in the city centre and ignore the thousands of people who work in places like Sandyford. Maybe you dont know the area, but its effectively an IT hub these days.

Assetbacked wrote: »

But engaging with that point, to drive from Tallaght to Sandyford in rush hour traffic, does that take more than an hour?

It frequently can yes, but if you get your way and add more people by increasing the housing density its not going to reduce times!
[/quote]

Assetbacked wrote: »

I don't understand what you are getting at here; I am talking about higher density in the city centre combined with lower density 3-5 storey apartment blocks in the suburbs to ensure we get the number of rentals we need and try to significantly reduce the cost of renting. The current situation involves young, flexible workers working in the city centre yet renting out in Dundrum, Castleknock, Blackrock etc. and as a result taking up houses and apartments which should be more for families who want to be settled. Look at the state of public transport as a result of the current situation.

I have no issues with high density in the city centre, or in fact in specific locations, such as sandyford, but putting 3-5 storey apartments in random suburbs doesnt help anything. There are several around stocking lane, rathfarnham, dundrum and they are a knightmare to get anywhere from unless you happen to be near a luas at both your starting point and your destination, which few are.

Assetbacked wrote: »

If you have walked around the suburbs, you do see small scale apartment blocks of maximum five storeys and they most certainly do not ruin the character of the area. It is how German towns and cities look; and aids ensuring that there is plenty of rental supply which of course assists with keeping rents low.

Its nothing to do with ruining the character of the area, its about doing it without supporting infrastructure.

lastusername

Statutory Ape wrote: »

We went to see a property about 4 weeks ago in Knocklyon. 4 bed semi, decent enough size, garden was small enough. House was grand but the current occupants had started some renovations but not completed them (adding an ensuite iirc and a partial garage conversion). Was a grand house, far from spectacular imo. It was guiding at €595 and when we went to see it the highest offer was €565. Went sale agreed the other day for €616. It was only bought by the current owners in May of last year for €595.

€616 for a 4 bed with a small garden in Knocklyon?! :eek: Wonder why they are moving so soon too.

tracesnim61

Seeking advice here:

Myself and OH are both in our late 50's and the plan to retire in two years time. Last night my husband mentioned that he is going to put our family home up for sale as soon as possible, his reason behind it is that we can get around 580k for it now and buy a 2 bed apartment in Dublin. He has his eye on certain 2 beds for around the 250k mark but is confident he will get it cheaper. Some of the proceeds of the sale will be for the purchasing of property in Portugal in a location we have frequently visited the past 15 years.

My husband works in Finance for his whole career and is usually good with this type of thing but i am worried he is acting a bit rash here and getting carried away. Our original plan was to sell the family home but this just seems so soon.

I am worried we will get a bad deal as he is usually not this quick to make such a big decision.

What do you think?

JimmyVik

tracesnim61 wrote: »

Seeking advice here:

Myself and OH are both in our late 50's and the plan to retire in two years time. Last night my husband mentioned that he is going to put our family home up for sale as soon as possible, his reason behind it is that we can get around 580k for it now and buy a 2 bed apartment in Dublin. He has his eye on certain 2 beds for around the 250k mark but is confident he will get it cheaper. Some of the proceeds of the sale will be for the purchasing of property in Portugal in a location we have frequently visited the past 15 years.

My husband works in Finance for his whole career and is usually good with this type of thing but i am worried he is acting a bit rash here and getting carried away. Our original plan was to sell the family home but this just seems so soon.

I am worried we will get a bad deal as he is usually not this quick to make such a big decision.

What do you think?

I assume its your decision too. If it makes you uncomfortable tell him. If you both arent 100% into the idea then dont do it.

brisan

SozBbz wrote: »

Higher end property is always harder to predict anyway, because the pool of potential buyers is smaller, and they're unlikely to be buying their first homes so there is often less urgency.

I agree, I think turkey property sub 500k is going to get really problematic. New builds will trickle off (unless the state steps in, which they might to make it worth builders whille despite the other risks in the market) so buyers will be left with the 3 D's (Divorceing, Desperate and Dead - and the third category especially are not known for leaving behind turn key property.)

You forgot landlords leaving the rental market

Nijmegen

Here-ye-here-ye economic doomsayers... The tax figures for June have been released. Tax overall up 4% June vs last year (May was also up). Income tax down -20% in June (it was -7.7% in May) but still slightly ahead of 2019 year to date. VAT is also down -20% in June.

The big question now will be if it all starts to come back in July with the re-opening, ie many people who were furloughed are back at work earning a wage.

Funny recession when tax is growing year on year but July and August will be critical months for VAT and income tax to tell us what's going on in the real economy.

Shane Fleming RE

I work in the property markets and have done for the last 16 years. Mostly work by providing advice and not so much on the sales side. So I do advise clients when to buy and sell. While I am actively trying to find properties for clients. I am sure the market must fall. The limited supply will slow down the fall but can see a dip happing later in 2020.
I have seen that DAFT has published reports on asking prices are rising in May but when you look at the completed sales prices, the average completed sale price in Jan 2020 in Dublin was €450k, that fell to €405k in May 2020. That is a 9% drop. While only just over 500 properties completed in May compared to approx 1500 in Jan which will impact the market.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

typical irish response - people not willing to take personal responsibility for their actions and they part they played in the last crash/recession etc. WE are world class at it. You keep piping on about different housing models working so well in other countries. Other countries are societally and culturally different to Ireland so it is not as easy to just lift and shift policy. That applies to all policy and not just housing.

I'm all for accountability and personal responsibility, the problem is the balance.
People at the top design a system that enriches them at considerable cost to wider society. When that system crashes we must all pull together to bail out the "wealth creators" because we are apparently doomed if these people go under

You might notice the eroding of the middle classes over the last few decades, far more pronounced in the US and UK . Why is this happening? Continued cycles of boom bust is leading to the gap between rich and poor widening.

With regard to your 2nd point, I put forward multiple solutions, yes of course they need work to be successful.

Do you think Ireland 20/30 years ago was ready for a gay Taoiseach of Indian descent, a landslide victory on marriage and abortion referenda. I feel we are much more culturally adaptable than you think

Cultural an societal reasons are a lazy persons answer to not tackling major issues with common sense, logical, workable solutions

Markitron

Shane Fleming RE wrote: »

I work in the property markets and have done for the last 16 years. Mostly work by providing advice and not so much on the sales side. So I do advise clients when to buy and sell. While I am actively trying to find properties for clients. I am sure the market must fall. The limited supply will slow down the fall but can see a dip happing later in 2020.
I have seen that DAFT has published reports on asking prices are rising in May but when you look at the completed sales prices, the average completed sale price in Jan 2020 in Dublin was €450k, that fell to €405k in May 2020. That is a 9% drop. While only just over 500 properties completed in May compared to approx 1500 in Jan which will impact the market.

Welcome. Just as a heads up, there was an estate agent that posted here not too long ago that ended up taking some unfair abuse and leaving. I think it is nice to have the perspective of someone in the industry, but don't take it personally if others don't.

El Gato De Negocios

lastusername wrote: »

€616 for a 4 bed with a small garden in Knocklyon?! :eek: Wonder why they are moving so soon too.

EA told us they were an English couple that had decided to move back to UK. We happened to meet the female half of the couple outside the house and she was certainly not English so your guess is as good as mine.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

I'm all for accountability and personal responsibility, the problem is the balance.
People at the top design a system that enriches them at considerable cost to wider society. When that system crashes we must all pull together to bail out the "wealth creators" because we are apparently doomed if these people go under

You might notice the eroding of the middle classes over the last few decades, far more pronounced in the US and UK . Why is this happening? Continued cycles of boom bust is leading to the gap between rich and poor widening.

With regard to your 2nd point, I put forward multiple solutions, yes of course they need work to be successful.

Do you think Ireland 20/30 years ago was ready for a gay Taoiseach of Indian descent, a landslide victory on marriage and abortion referenda. I feel we are much more culturally adaptable than you think

Cultural an societal reasons are a lazy persons answer to not tackling major issues with common sense, logical, workable solutions

so you have made my point - it isnt as simple as a lift and shift of policy. Any plan a government puts in place will take over 10 years to be properly implemented. It can't happen overnight. I do agree with your argument but i believe you are over simplifying it.

Marius34

Shane Fleming RE wrote: »

I work in the property markets and have done for the last 16 years. Mostly work by providing advice and not so much on the sales side. So I do advise clients when to buy and sell. While I am actively trying to find properties for clients. I am sure the market must fall. The limited supply will slow down the fall but can see a dip happing later in 2020.
I have seen that DAFT has published reports on asking prices are rising in May but when you look at the completed sales prices, the average completed sale price in Jan 2020 in Dublin was €450k, that fell to €405k in May 2020. That is a 9% drop. While only just over 500 properties completed in May compared to approx 1500 in Jan which will impact the market.

Those numbers makes no sense to me. Not sure where you got it.
There were no significant change in sale price in May, and for the past 2 years.

Shane Fleming RE

Fall by 5% by December 2020 and 10% by the end of 2021

Shane Fleming RE

IPPI software, which tracks listings and closing, while average price month to month can differ greatly depending on what actually sells that month. Averages in Dublin were Jan €450k, Feb €433k, Mar €436k, Apr €436k, May €405k

Shane Fleming RE

Markitron wrote: »

Welcome. Just as a heads up, there was an estate agent that posted here not too long ago that ended up taking some unfair abuse and leaving. I think it is nice to have the perspective of someone in the industry, but don't take it personally if others don't.

Thanks for the heads up, most of my work is consulting so hope I can give a fair insight