Property Market 2020

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Shane Fleming RE wrote: »

Thanks for the heads up, most of my work is consulting so hope I can give a fair insight

There's a few agents here under alter ego's, highly recommended in such a firey biased thread.

Shane Fleming RE

Julissa Bitter Jeep wrote: »

There's a few agents here under alter ego's, highly recommended in such a firey biased thread.

God it must be bad. Will see how it goes

Hubertj

Shane Fleming RE wrote: »

IPPI software, which tracks listings and closing, while average price month to month can differ greatly depending on what actually sells that month. Averages in Dublin were Jan €450k, Feb €433k, Mar €436k, Apr €436k, May €405k

how come the price for may differs from the Daft.ie report?

brisan

tracesnim61 wrote: »

Seeking advice here:

Myself and OH are both in our late 50's and the plan to retire in two years time. Last night my husband mentioned that he is going to put our family home up for sale as soon as possible, his reason behind it is that we can get around 580k for it now and buy a 2 bed apartment in Dublin. He has his eye on certain 2 beds for around the 250k mark but is confident he will get it cheaper. Some of the proceeds of the sale will be for the purchasing of property in Portugal in a location we have frequently visited the past 15 years.

My husband works in Finance for his whole career and is usually good with this type of thing but i am worried he is acting a bit rash here and getting carried away. Our original plan was to sell the family home but this just seems so soon.

I am worried we will get a bad deal as he is usually not this quick to make such a big decision.

What do you think?

IF you are in total agreement with him then now is a good time to sell if it sells quick
He may have to wait a bit for prices to drop though.
I have no idea on property prices in Portugal.

Marius34

Shane Fleming RE wrote: »

IPPI software, which tracks listings and closing, while average price month to month can differ greatly depending on what actually sells that month. Averages in Dublin were Jan €450k, Feb €433k, Mar €436k, Apr €436k, May €405k

Those number obviously doesn't present the actual situation on sales, it's probably because it's done on the raw data from PPR? without filtering anomalies and etc. As well i see the number of total sales are off from the actual numbers.

I have my report created for studies some time ago, on 2 different formulas, that gives a much better picture of Sales, although not as good as CSO. But you can see that there are no real change in May, CSO will confirm this for May in 2 weeks.

https://datastudio.google.com/s/rk-PSHr2Qx4

Mic 1972

tracesnim61 wrote: »

Seeking advice here:

Myself and OH are both in our late 50's and the plan to retire in two years time. Last night my husband mentioned that he is going to put our family home up for sale as soon as possible, his reason behind it is that we can get around 580k for it now and buy a 2 bed apartment in Dublin. He has his eye on certain 2 beds for around the 250k mark but is confident he will get it cheaper. Some of the proceeds of the sale will be for the purchasing of property in Portugal in a location we have frequently visited the past 15 years.

My husband works in Finance for his whole career and is usually good with this type of thing but i am worried he is acting a bit rash here and getting carried away. Our original plan was to sell the family home but this just seems so soon.

I am worried we will get a bad deal as he is usually not this quick to make such a big decision.

What do you think?

a 2-bed apt in Dublin will be more expensive than 250K, unless you are going for a cheap location

GreeBo

tracesnim61 wrote: »

Seeking advice here:

Myself and OH are both in our late 50's and the plan to retire in two years time. Last night my husband mentioned that he is going to put our family home up for sale as soon as possible, his reason behind it is that we can get around 580k for it now and buy a 2 bed apartment in Dublin. He has his eye on certain 2 beds for around the 250k mark but is confident he will get it cheaper. Some of the proceeds of the sale will be for the purchasing of property in Portugal in a location we have frequently visited the past 15 years.

My husband works in Finance for his whole career and is usually good with this type of thing but i am worried he is acting a bit rash here and getting carried away. Our original plan was to sell the family home but this just seems so soon.

I am worried we will get a bad deal as he is usually not this quick to make such a big decision.

What do you think?

It could be genius or could be a disaster, selling the family home to try and make a quick buck on the property market doesnt seem like a sensible idea to me.

If it goes wrong and you are stuck in your 2 bed will you both be happy?
Whats your risk profile and do you own the house outright or still has a mortgage, and how much did you pay for it?
If you are selling your house at the top you are also buying the 2 bed at the top, something (for your husband) to consider.

Most people who got lucky in the past were renting after selling and so missed the dip altogether.

Mike3287

tracesnim61 wrote: »

Seeking advice here:

Myself and OH are both in our late 50's and the plan to retire in two years time. Last night my husband mentioned that he is going to put our family home up for sale as soon as possible, his reason behind it is that we can get around 580k for it now and buy a 2 bed apartment in Dublin. He has his eye on certain 2 beds for around the 250k mark but is confident he will get it cheaper. Some of the proceeds of the sale will be for the purchasing of property in Portugal in a location we have frequently visited the past 15 years.

My husband works in Finance for his whole career and is usually good with this type of thing but i am worried he is acting a bit rash here and getting carried away. Our original plan was to sell the family home but this just seems so soon.

I am worried we will get a bad deal as he is usually not this quick to make such a big decision.

What do you think?

Right to sell, not right to buy

Should rent it for a while and sit on cash

cnocbui

Mic 1972 wrote: »

a 2-bed apt in Dublin will be more expensive than 250K, unless you are going for a cheap location

I get the impression he's counting on a meaningful price drop later in a depressed market, after selling the home in a more buoyant one.

It's like selling shares now in the hope of buying back in later at a lower price. I haven't had great luck trying that.

TheSheriff

tracesnim61 wrote: »

Seeking advice here:

Myself and OH are both in our late 50's and the plan to retire in two years time. Last night my husband mentioned that he is going to put our family home up for sale as soon as possible, his reason behind it is that we can get around 580k for it now and buy a 2 bed apartment in Dublin. He has his eye on certain 2 beds for around the 250k mark but is confident he will get it cheaper. Some of the proceeds of the sale will be for the purchasing of property in Portugal in a location we have frequently visited the past 15 years.

My husband works in Finance for his whole career and is usually good with this type of thing but i am worried he is acting a bit rash here and getting carried away. Our original plan was to sell the family home but this just seems so soon.

I am worried we will get a bad deal as he is usually not this quick to make such a big decision.

What do you think?

Please don't take advice from anyone on here; we are all just random people on a forum.

Nearly everyone here has some type of bias and will tell you prices are going to crash or prices are going to stay the same depending on where they are in life.

What your husband is trying is to time the market; you should both be going into this with full knowledge of both the potential rewards and the potential risks. Only go ahead if you can accept the risks associated with this strategy.

cnocbui

Marius34 wrote: »

Those number obviously doesn't present the actual situation on sales, it's probably because it's done on the raw data from PPR? without filtering anomalies and etc. As well i see the number of total sales are off from the actual numbers.

I have my report created for studies some time ago, on 2 different formulas, that gives a much better picture of Sales, although not as good as CSO. But you can see that there are no real change in May, CSO will confirm this for May in 2 weeks.

https://datastudio.google.com/s/rk-PSHr2Qx4

I am astonished at the volume of sales in Dec. Very counter intuitive, assuming of course M12 is Dec.

tracesnim61

GreeBo wrote: »

It could be genius or could be a disaster, selling the family home to try and make a quick buck on the property market doesnt seem like a sensible idea to me.

If it goes wrong and you are stuck in your 2 bed will you both be happy?
Whats your risk profile and do you own the house outright or still has a mortgage, and how much did you pay for it?
If you are selling your house at the top you are also buying the 2 bed at the top, something (for your husband) to consider.

Most people who got lucky in the past were renting after selling and so missed the dip altogether.

The house was purchased in the 90's and was paid off 5 years ago, all of our children have left the house.

Our original plan was to sell the house, buy a 2 bed in Dublin and property in Portugal and spend the time between the two locations. My husband thinks we should put it up for 600k and take 580k then purchase the 2 bed for less than 250k. He has spotted a couple of 2 beds that have been on the market for greater than 6 months for 250k and is convinced he will get them cheaper but will pay 250k if needed. His main reasoning for selling now is he doesn't think we will get as much for our house within two years time.

We have family we can stay with for a couple of weeks/months while we are in the process of moving.

PommieBast

tracesnim61 wrote: »

He has spotted a couple of 2 beds that have been on the market for greater than 6 months for 250k and is convinced he will get them cheaper but will pay 250k if needed.

He's quite likley right, but something that has been stuck on the market that long is almost guaranteed to have "issues".

Bass Reeves

Mike3287 wrote: »

Right to sell, not right to buy

Should rent it for a while and sit on cash

In there case if they sell it may not be worth the risk waiting to buy. Rent will cost them 15k/ year. They do not intend to borrow more than likely. Cash in banks will be receiving interest. They would require a 20%+drop to make any sort of money on the wait part of the transaction.

However 250k dose not sound enough for a god two bedroom apartment in a decent location in Dublin. As well if you are at or near retirement age you need to look for a ground floor apartment which will add to the cost. Risk far out weights the rewards for sitting on the fence after selling.

cnocbui

PommieBast wrote: »

He's quite likley right, but something that has been stuck on the market that long is almost guaranteed to have "issues".

I had my last house on the market for about 14 months with next to no interest shown in that time and then as soon as someone put in a bid there was suddenly a 3 way bidding war and it went for above asking. But then it wasn't in Dublin so perhaps you are right.

Marius34

cnocbui wrote: »

I am astonished at the volume of sales in Dec. Very counter intuitive, assuming of course M12 is Dec.

Yes, M12 (Month 12) is for December.
If you filter by Type in dashboard, you'll see particular big difference for new builds, I assume most companies want to complete sale before the end of the year.
For December it's around 60% higher for New Builds, and around 20% higher for Second hand.

fliball123

wassie wrote: »

I beg to differ. Sure the causations may be different, but my experience of 3 recessions tells me the same thing happens.

People lose jobs and livelihoods are destroyed on a widespread scale.

Already this one is different

The job losses are faster here and will recover quicker
The banks are not an issue
People have less personal debt and more personal savings
People cannot emigrate like last time

These factors alone will mean this recession will be different

Bass Reeves

fliball123 wrote: »

Already this one is different

The job losses are faster here and will recover quicker
The banks are not an issue
People have less personal debt and more personal savings
People cannot emigrate like last time

These factors alone will mean this recession will be different

As well no overhang of properties sitting waiting to be sold

guyfawkes5

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

My SiL who bought an apartment in 2007 that is still in negative equity might not agree with you.

Fair enough, but from the context of analogies I was pretty clearly talking about property in the main.

One of the problems in this thread is that some people have overlearned from 2008. Property generally is meant to be a quite stable investment (a perception that filtered into the causes of the property crash). Cars are not an investment in any real terms. A new build house does not depreciate 30% the second someone buys it for example.

Villa05

Hubertj wrote:

so you have made my point - it isnt as simple as a lift and shift of policy. Any plan a government puts in place will take over 10 years to be properly implemented. It can't happen overnight. I do agree with your argument but i believe you are over simplifying it.

Would building a sizeable quota of affordable accomodation for workers that can be offered at rents significantly below market rate while still covering its costs. Do it for key low paid workers who kept things moving while most were in lock down

Achievable and would go a long way to solving overall supply issue

I'm struggling to find where the difficulty is? What problems do you forsee with such a plan

cnocbui

The US added 2.7 million jobs in May and now 4.8 million in June.

Walnut Salad

I am hearing a lot of commercial office space will come available in Dublin as companies reduce their required floor space. For example I hear Aviva are giving up 3 floors of their building near Stephens Green. You would have to think that some of that commercial space will be converted to apartments.

Hubertj

Villa05 wrote: »

Would building a sizeable quota of affordable accomodation for workers that can be offered at rents significantly below market rate while still covering its costs. Do it for key low paid workers who kept things moving while most were in lock down

Achievable and would go a long way to solving overall supply issue

I'm struggling to find where the difficulty is? What problems do you forsee with such a plan

the length of time it will take to develop and the inability of any government department to execute. Civil servants dont have the competence to deliver it. Procurement process would be a disaster likely making the units more expensive than private sector. There is no accountability so they dont care - look at childrens hospital. It is the right thing to do but if it is to be done correctly private sector has to be heaviliy involved from the start with out incompetent bureacrats meddling.
Although SF could bring in McFeely as a consultant. He has good form delivering large scale housing.

neutral guy

Walnut Salad wrote: »

I am hearing a lot of commercial office space will come available in Dublin as companies reduce their required floor space. For example I hear Aviva are giving up 3 floors of their building near Stephens Green. You would have to think that some of that commercial space will be converted to apartments.

Never ! The building does not meet civil regulations / converting this building/floors into apartments will be the same as converting trailer into skyscraper.I would say it will be easier knock this building down and build another one.

No worries about property demand.When builders will stop build the people will lose the jobs /when people will lose the jobs any bank will not give them mortgages.There was a thousands houses for sale for half price in 2008 and nobody had money buy them ! Because nobody had the jobs.

There will be more people living in caravans then people buying houses !

Top Dog

Nijmegen wrote: »

Here-ye-here-ye economic doomsayers... The tax figures for June have been released. Tax overall up 4% June vs last year (May was also up). Income tax down -20% in June (it was -7.7% in May) but still slightly ahead of 2019 year to date. VAT is also down -20% in June.

The big question now will be if it all starts to come back in July with the re-opening, ie many people who were furloughed are back at work earning a wage.

Funny recession when tax is growing year on year but July and August will be critical months for VAT and income tax to tell us what's going on in the real economy.

The big question for me is, where on earth is the tax coming from? If income tax and vat have dropped so considerably, what's making up for all that with more on top?

cnocbui

VAT from toilet roll sales, I'd say.

Shelga

I have an offer in on a house that needs work, but now I’m reconsidering waiting another 6 months. I’m already offering near the top of what I can afford, but I could see myself living there for 10+ years if necessary.

I’m living at home and not paying rent, so can afford to sit tight and just save, but I’m dying to get out.

I really don’t know what to do. What would people advise?

neutral guy

Shelga wrote: »

I have an offer in on a house that needs work, but now I’m reconsidering waiting another 6 months. I’m already offering near the top of what I can afford, but I could see myself living there for 10+ years if necessary.

I’m living at home and not paying rent, so can afford to sit tight and just save, but I’m dying to get out.

I really don’t know what to do. What would people advise?

Always do opposite what media says and never run behind the cattle of sheep.Once money comming regulary to your bank account that mean you on right place to be.If tou renting and save on it then continue it.If you bought house and have take loan for sofa because you have zero on your account then you on wrong place.Does not matter what you have the matter is how much you save every week.

Shane Fleming RE

Hubertj wrote: »

how come the price for may differs from the Daft.ie report?

Daft report is based on asking prices. not completed sales.

Shane Fleming RE

Marius34 wrote: »

Those number obviously doesn't present the actual situation on sales, it's probably because it's done on the raw data from PPR? without filtering anomalies and etc. As well i see the number of total sales are off from the actual numbers.

I have my report created for studies some time ago, on 2 different formulas, that gives a much better picture of Sales, although not as good as CSO. But you can see that there are no real change in May, CSO will confirm this for May in 2 weeks.

https://datastudio.google.com/s/rk-PSHr2Qx4

That is a really good report and data, fair play and thanks for sharing.

There is a new tool https://ippi.io/ agents can use which they claim to take info from 8/9 data points so not just the PPR. I have access to their updated version which is yet to be launched provides a lot of reporting tools on the sales market.