Cheltenham 2020

IAMAMORON

FatRat wrote: »

What is the point of 6day Decs when undecideds can still remain undecided, like Honeysuckle staying in the mares and champion?

Is it so that it cost money to keep them in at this stage? Therefore incentivise trainers/owners to pull horses earlier? I don't see a point of it when final Decs happen a few days later anyway

Total bookies benefit if you ask me. One of the biggest issues as a punter is knowing where your fancy is actually going to turn up, head wrecking.

The worst is the handicaps.

Hold tight on a fancy at this point and let the market guide it's price, all sorts of crap to be written by the papers in the next few days and the mainstream money will be pouring in.

I can't see the value in backing BDD or Honeysuckle to beat the other in a race, they are both brilliant. Same odds as Spurs getting beaten up at Turf Moor on Saturday night or have a craic at United to beat city draw no bet @3/1.

Some of the races next week are total coin flips, better off just watching them. I can win 7 times the money backing 3rd favourites that I like in other races. Less hype more price.

FatRat

IAMAMORON wrote: »

Total bookies benefit if you ask me. One of the biggest issues as a punter is knowing where your fancy is actually going to turn up, head wrecking.

The worst is the handicaps.

Hold tight on a fancy at this point and let the market guide it's price, all sorts of crap to be written by the papers in the next few days and the mainstream money will be pouring in.

I can't see the value in backing BDD or Honeysuckle to beat the other in a race, they are both brilliant. Same odds as Spurs getting beaten up at Turf Moor on Saturday night or have a craic at United to beat city draw no bet @3/1.

Some of the races next week are total coin flips, better off just watching them. I can win 7 times the money backing 3rd favourites that I like in other races. Less hype more price.

Generally agree except for the example you used. I think if you can get BDD at evens or better you're getting good value even with Honeysuckle in the race, don't think it's a coin flip.

I think she is the only proper banker. I would have some reservations about all of the other short prices but not her.

Charlie George

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

I think Min will be backed off the boards and finally get his Cheltenham win.
APTs got more questions than answers for me at the moment.

Is there any chance min will be redirected to the champion chase, with uds retired there doesn't seem to be anything to make a strong pace for CPS who will need a good pace to burn off dds and altior.

akelly02

Charlie George wrote: »

Is there any chance min will be redirected to the champion chase, with uds retired there doesn't seem to be anything to make a strong pace for CPS who will need a good pace to burn off dds and altior.

about a 5% chance

PillarToPost

Genuinely don't think defi du seuil will fill the first 2 places

Plasandrunt

Charlie George wrote: »

Is there any chance min will be redirected to the champion chase, with uds retired there doesn't seem to be anything to make a strong pace for CPS who will need a good pace to burn off dds and altior.

Why would they turn down the chance of winning 2 grade 1s by rerouting one of the horses to act as pacesetter?

byronbay2

FatRat wrote: »

Generally agree except for the example you used. I think if you can get BDD at evens or better you're getting good value even with Honeysuckle in the race, don't think it's a coin flip.

I think she is the only proper banker. I would have some reservations about all of the other short prices but not her.

Couldn't agree more. Bar a fall (bitter memory!!) BDD looks absolutely bulletproof. Biggest bet of the year for me if Evens was available. Will probably get it for €10 or €20 from some of the bookies as special offers but will be happy to bet at 4/5 or better for decent money.

Slattsy

If people had to do a muggy double/treble what would it be? i'd go for:

Benie DD and Paisley Park &
the two above and Appreciate It.

mountgomery burns

Hard to see how evens is value when theres an Irish champion hurdler, multiple grade 1 winner who's unbeaten in opposition.

Even if you think BDD is the better horse, that looks short enough. On a line through Killultagh Vic/Penhill this year, there's nothing obvious here to separate them either. It's not Annie Power we're talking about

TheMilkyPirate

Slattsy wrote: »

If people had to do a muggy double/treble what would it be? i'd go for:

Benie DD and Paisley Park &
the two above and Appreciate It.

BDD Paisley park and Envoi Allen providing he goes ballymore

The Mig

Benie, Paisley, Envoi, Tiger

Croll

Slattsy wrote: »

If people had to do a muggy double/treble what would it be? i'd go for:

Benie DD and Paisley Park &
the two above and Appreciate It.

Tiger, APT and PP treble to win,

Each way treble Sporting John, APT and PP, 30-1 if they win and still profit if they just place

FatRat

mountgomery burns wrote: »

Hard to see how evens is value when theres an Irish champion hurdler, multiple grade 1 winner who's unbeaten in opposition.

Even if you think BDD is the better horse, that looks short enough. On a line through Killultagh Vic/Penhill this year, there's nothing obvious here to separate them either. It's not Annie Power we're talking about

Honeysuckle has never ran at Cheltenham and beat Petit muchoir all out by a length. Benie would have won by 10L last year if she stayed upright. Has won the race before and beat Frances unbeaten champion hurdler for the craic.

The festival has a knack for making horses who are unproven at this big stage short price favs. We all know the weight of festival and course form but sometimes seem to forget it in the betting. I'll stand by evens being a great price. Honeysuckle can come out and prove herself to me but I don't think it's 50/50 with the information we have.

Gavin "shels"

Muggy double would be Envoi Allen (Ballymore) & Appreciate It - 11/2!

carq

Dr. Bre wrote: »

It would be unbearable if he won tho

I literally stormed out of cheltenham what that happened last year.

IAMAMORON

Slattsy wrote: »

If people had to do a muggy double/treble what would it be? i'd go for:

Benie DD and Paisley Park &
the two above and Appreciate It.

I would do a "mares monster"

Honeysuckle, Colreavy and Lady Buttons @ 314/1 PP. Fiver ew.

Throw in Darling Daughter in the bumper for 5,354/1 accum/yankee.

Think big bitches.

RivetingRoger

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I would do a "mares monster"

Honeysuckle, Colreavy and Lady Buttons @ 314/1 PP. Fiver ew.

Throw in Darling Daughter in the bumper for 5,354/1 accum/yankee.

Think big bitches.

Couldn't put Paisley in any multiples till we know what Beni is doing
Thinking Envoi, Appreciate it, A plus Tard

The Mig

Very surprised if Benie goes Stayers

RivetingRoger

The Mig wrote: »

Very surprised if Benie goes Stayers

Me too but I am haunted by vautour going Ryanair

abarkie

1 Cheltenham banker that never ever lets you down is the racing post price increase

£3.50 from Monday I hear

Gamble landed 😀

akelly02

Santini wears cheekpieces in the gold cup

akelly02

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Couldn't put Paisley in any multiples till we know what Beni is doing
Thinking Envoi, Appreciate it, A plus Tard

benie is going mares

now you know

Slattsy

akelly02 wrote: »

Santini wears cheekpieces in the gold cup

Lovely - horses tend to improve for the application of head gear!!!! :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac:

Plasandrunt

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Me too but I am haunted by vautour going Ryanair

Haunted?

Having him and Limini running the same day was absolutely printing money.

akelly02

Slattsy wrote: »

Lovely - horses tend to improve for the application of head gear!!!! :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac:

just to keep him switched on and not get lazy i guess...he will need to be on the ball and not lose position or it could be game over pretty early.

BoldReason

akelly02 wrote: »

benie is going mares

now you know

Benie could still technically go to the stayers. Unlikely but its a possibility

Slattsy

GE says BOD aint going.

Croll

Slattsy wrote: »

GE says BOD aint going.

Cant imagine too many are dissapointed

RivetingRoger

Elliot saying very possible maybe likely Envoi switching to Supreme!
Ffffeeeeccckk

zimmermania

Would anyone agree that Shishkin is way too short in the opener on tuesday.