Cheltenham 2020

WicklowBravee · 07-03-2020 12:21am

How on earth is The Big Getaway 5/1?

FatRat · 07-03-2020 12:28am

WicklowBravee wrote: »

How on earth is The Big Getaway 5/1?

Pretty sure just because of his colours and it's Mullins.

I would say the same was the story for Lamarckise who was pulled from the mares novice today and was somehow 2nd favourite. Now the whole market is blue even though she had no chance anyway.

Speaking of the Mares novice, Floressa has the best form in that race and looks very good at 6 or 7s. Not the greatest race to be backing but I had a decent bet on.

Plasandrunt · 07-03-2020 2:13am

Over the minimum 2m trip i think Colreevy has the best form with victories over Abacadabras and Black Tears. Was unlucky lto getting bumped over the last and that was over 2m4, i think Minella Melody looks more of a stayer and will be tapped for toe over the shorter distance

FatRat · 07-03-2020 3:30am

Plasandrunt wrote: »

Over the minimum 2m trip i think Colreevy has the best form with victories over Abacadabras and Black Tears. Was unlucky lto getting bumped over the last and that was over 2m4, i think Minella Melody looks more of a stayer and will be tapped for toe over the shorter distance

Beat Abacadabras over flat though and 2 year old form on the flat Vs Black Tears is not really something I'd be putting much weight to. That race against minella melody was over 2m 2f not 2m4f and he was beaten fair and square if you ask me. A soft Cheltenham is a good bit more of a test than Fairyhouse on yielding so I think you're actually making a good point for Minella Melody to win rather than the other way around!

Minella melody should win on novice hurdle form but I am giving more weight to Floressa's most recent 3l behind finish to Lady Buttons, who I rate more highly than her opposition in this race. But sure look, it's a mares novice race afterall so would not be surprised to see a massive price cruise in.

Slattsy · 07-03-2020 10:15am

Minella Melody has the best form and i think regardless of trip she wins.

RivetingRoger · 07-03-2020 11:34am

Say Faugheen and Alahoo both pop up in the same race, the RSA for example, which one do ye think PT would ride lads?
As a faugheen fan, it wouldn't bother me one but if Patrick took the ride on Faugheen, but I wonder would PT fancy it first

IAMAMORON · 07-03-2020 11:42am

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Say Faugheen and Alahoo both pop up in the same race, the RSA for example, which one do ye think PT would ride lads?
As a faugheen fan, it wouldn't bother me one but if Patrick took the ride on Faugheen, but I wonder would PT fancy it first

All the stats say Allaho has no chance in the RSA. Only three 6 year old winners since 1978. All winners have contested a graded chase previously. All winners had run in at least 3 previous chases. His price is crazy all things considered. I also think that the Albert Bartlett is a fools gold for chasing form. All things considered his price of 9/2 is madness.

No winner over the age of 8 against Faugheen. But you're talking about Faugheen, he is different gravy.

RivetingRoger · 07-03-2020 12:09pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

All the stats say Allaho has no chance in the RSA. Only three 6 year old winners since 1978. All winners have contested a graded chase previously. All winners had run in at least 3 previous chases. His price is crazy all things considered. I also think that the Albert Bartlett is a fools gold for chasing form. All things considered his price of 9/2 is madness.

No winner over the age of 8 against Faugheen. But you're talking about Faugheen, he is different gravy.

Could as easily have used the Marsh as my example
Used the RSA as WPM seems to be pointing Alahoo at the RSA

lemush · 07-03-2020 12:21pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

I also think that the Albert Bartlett is a fools gold for chasing form.

Not in the RSA it's not, five winners in the last decade ran in the Bartlett.

IAMAMORON · 07-03-2020 12:47pm

lemush wrote: »

Not in the RSA it's not, five winners in the last decade ran in the Bartlett.

2 were pulled up.... I have had this argument already this week.

Boston's Angel was transformed as a chaser, pulled up in an Albert Bartlett.

Weapons Amnesty and Bob's Worth the only 2 chasers to follow up. Santini was placed, he didn't even win an RSA. O'Faolains boy was beaten 17 lengths in 4th.

Your looking at the stat upsides down imo, all things considered.

I think it is a bad race for picking decent chasers full stop, especially when you consider the amount of runners. You're bending stats, conversely you can say 5/10 winners did not run in the Albert Bartlett. Are you happy to take a 9/2 chance about that happening, especially considering he is only 6 and has only run in 2 chases? Not for me.

I get all the Allaho hype, how come no one is talking about Annamix for Easter?

lemush · 07-03-2020 12:59pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

2 were pulled up.... I have had this argument already this week.

Boston's Angel was transformed as a chaser, pulled up in an Albert Bartlett.

Weapons Amnesty and Bob's Worth the only 2 chasers to follow up. Santini was placed, he didn't even win an RSA. O'Faolains boy was beaten 17 lengths in 4th.

Your looking at the stat upsides down imo, all things considered.

I think it is a bad race for picking decent chasers full stop, especially when you consider the amount of runners. You're bending stats, conversely you can say 5/10 winners did not run in the Albert Bartlett. Are you happy to take a 9/2 chance about that happening, especially considering he is only 6 and has only run in 2 chases? Not for me.

I get all the Allaho hype, how come no one is talking about Annamix for Easter?

You've done your usual and skew the stats whichever suits you. I'm only wasting my own time.

IAMAMORON · 07-03-2020 1:13pm

lemush wrote: »

You've done your usual and skew the stats whichever suits you. I'm only wasting my own time.

Stats are there to be broken. But a price should reflect that. Allaho or Minella Indo are simply no value as a result, they have to beat each other for starters. Neither have run in a graded chase yet. Absolute madness their prices.

That does not mean either cannot win, but only one can. I would rather be on a 7or8 year old who has run in 3 chases and placed or better in a graded chase. All things considered Salsaretta has a better chance to win, she has more chasing experience for starters.

Why don't you save your money for Annamix?

RivetingRoger · 07-03-2020 2:51pm

Simon Claisse on ITV just now saying he expects day 1 to be on Soft, good to soft in places
Abacadabras not out of this yet lads

Slattsy · 07-03-2020 3:50pm

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Simon Claisse on ITV just now saying he expects day 1 to be on Soft, good to soft in places
Abacadabras not out of this yet lads

He is obliged by law to state good in the description. Pay no heed of it.

Plasandrunt · 07-03-2020 4:28pm

It's happening

RivetingRoger · 07-03-2020 4:41pm

I knew Gordon was on the pisstake at the Betfair preview when he consistently referred to the horse as Abrakebabra....
I mean, its his horse, he knows it's name!!
i'd say the Irish behind the scenes were howling laughing at him

After that you couldn't take a thing he said seriously

howareyakid · 07-03-2020 8:26pm

Looking at the Albert Bartlett and Ramses De Teillee interests me as an experienced horse who is proven over the distance. I feel that often, this race went to a horse with a similar profile but last year the younger, perhaps classier horses seemed to fare better. That would point to a Thyme Hill or a Latest Exhibition having maybe too much class for some of the more battle hardened stayers. I suppose the softer the ground the better for the likes of a Ramses De Teillee. Anyone have any opinions on the race?

krustydoyle · 08-03-2020 12:21pm

Altior lame according to the RP

abarkie · 08-03-2020 2:00pm

abarkie wrote: »

1 Cheltenham banker that never ever lets you down is the racing post price increase

£3.50 from Monday I hear

Gamble landed &#55357;&#56832;

Up 70p to £3.90 on a Saturday - milking the monopoly for all it is worth

IAMAMORON · 08-03-2020 3:08pm

abarkie wrote: »

Up 70p to £3.90 on a Saturday - milking the monopoly for all it is worth

So true. It wouldn't stop me reading it mind you.

I have been reading and watching lots of vlogs and interviews about professional punters ( I get notions sometimes ) on the interweb and you tube etc.

The most common denominator they all have is that they watch replays obsessively and the biggest thing being that make up their own handicap marks.

Now good luck managing that with all the fleecing and bolloxing that goes on over here, but you have to think that to get ahead of the bookies you need to be doing something similar? I mean the Racing Post are quite simply creating the morning prices?

I have simply not backed a fancy on the back of the horses picture being on the front page or being napped by someone like Tom Segal. You could have been looking to have an ew bet at 12's and then 3 pundits say they fancy it and by the time you try to get on the horse is 5's or 6's. Painful.

supremenovice · 08-03-2020 6:41pm

Hopefully David Mullins will get a few rides. AFAIK, he's never won at Cheltenham at all. He's too good to keep that record for much longer.

Motivator · 08-03-2020 6:54pm

supremenovice wrote: »

Hopefully David Mullins will get a few rides. AFAIK, he's never won at Cheltenham at all. He's too good to keep that record for much longer.

Neither has Danny. Danny has been beaten a short head on 5 occasions that spring to mind. He’s been desperately unlucky at the track. Gave some masterful rides there that are forgotten about because he didn’t win. If he has a ride in the bumper pay attention to it, he’s gone very close a few times over the last few years.

supremenovice · 08-03-2020 8:36pm

Motivator wrote: »

Neither has Danny. Danny has been beaten a short head on 5 occasions that spring to mind. He’s been desperately unlucky at the track. Gave some masterful rides there that are forgotten about because he didn’t win. If he has a ride in the bumper pay attention to it, he’s gone very close a few times over the last few years.

Two chances on Tuesday but big outsiders. I suppose he'll always be on outsiders though

Peintre Celebre · 08-03-2020 8:39pm

IAMAMORON wrote: »

So true. It wouldn't stop me reading it mind you.

I have been reading and watching lots of vlogs and interviews about professional punters ( I get notions sometimes ) on the interweb and you tube etc.

The most common denominator they all have is that they watch replays obsessively and the biggest thing being that make up their own handicap marks.

Now good luck managing that with all the fleecing and bolloxing that goes on over here, but you have to think that to get ahead of the bookies you need to be doing something similar? I mean the Racing Post are quite simply creating the morning prices?

I have simply not backed a fancy on the back of the horses picture being on the front page or being napped by someone like Tom Segal. You could have been looking to have an ew bet at 12's and then 3 pundits say they fancy it and by the time you try to get on the horse is 5's or 6's. Painful.

Most will not be making handicap marks. They may think one is ahead of a mark or portly handicapped. Plenty will use a formula for speed ratings or something similar.

Fwiw I think price is the single most important factor in backing a horse, but I'd never back one I think is badly handicapped either

howareyakid · 08-03-2020 9:04pm

As regards backing more than one horse in a race, it wouldn’t be for me. I’m sure there are times when it can be profitable with big fields, good each way terms etc. and I wouldn’t knock anyone on here for doing it. But I’d subscribe to the idea that the real fun is in nailing your colours to the mast with one selection.

NaiveMelodies · 08-03-2020 9:27pm

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Most will not be making handicap marks. They may think one is ahead of a mark or portly handicapped. Plenty will use a formula for speed ratings or something similar.

Fwiw I think price is the single most important factor in backing a horse, but I'd never back one I think is badly handicapped either

Any big fancy for the week PC?

IAMAMORON · 08-03-2020 9:42pm

howareyakid wrote: »

As regards backing more than one horse in a race, it wouldn’t be for me. I’m sure there are times when it can be profitable with big fields, good each way terms etc. and I wouldn’t knock anyone on here for doing it. But I’d subscribe to the idea that the real fun is in nailing your colours to the mast with one selection.

If I fancy 2 horsies I split my bet, there is nothing that will have you on your knees chewing the kitchen table quicker than leaving a winner in your wallet because you were too cheap to throw a few quid on a fancy. Bad for your mental state of mind. If your gut is telling you to back a horse do it.

Motivator · 08-03-2020 9:52pm

Peintre Celebre wrote: »

Most will not be making handicap marks. They may think one is ahead of a mark or portly handicapped. Plenty will use a formula for speed ratings or something similar.

Fwiw I think price is the single most important factor in backing a horse, but I'd never back one I think is badly handicapped either

All about the value. For example, I don’t see any value in the Supreme or the Champion Hurdle so I won’t have a bet. I do see value in Envoi Allen’s price so I’ll back him on the day. If I don’t see any value in a race I won’t have a bet.

The likes of Cheltenham are dangerous weeks for people because logic and discipline can go out the window as people get caught up in the hype of it and end up backing horses for the sake of it. I fell victim to it a few years ago and had a bet in every race, backed probably two winners over the week and I remember looking back on what I had been at a few weeks later and I couldn’t believe it. Some of the mad bets I had, things I’d never done before or did afterwards.

IAMAMORON · 08-03-2020 9:56pm

Motivator wrote: »

All about the value. For example, I don’t see any value in the Supreme or the Champion Hurdle so I won’t have a bet. I do see value in Envoi Allen’s price so I’ll back him on the day. If I don’t see any value in a race I won’t have a bet.

The likes of Cheltenham are dangerous weeks for people because logic and discipline can go out the window as people get caught up in the hype of it and end up backing horses for the sake of it. I fell victim to it a few years ago and had a bet in every race, backed probably two winners over the week and I remember looking back on what I had been at a few weeks later and I couldn’t believe it. Some of the mad bets I had, things I’d never done before or did afterwards.

I couldn't agree more, with 26 races you need to know when to keep the money in your wallet.

I try to keep it down to 3 or 4 big bets, in saying that if I fancy something and the price is right anything is possible. But anyone having a flat bet per race will need to be winning 1 or 2 races per day, not easy.

Whiplash85 · 08-03-2020 10:19pm

You dont want to be going through the Martin Pipe looking for a winner to save your week. All my cards are 90% played now and what will be will be. What is guaranteed though is that the one you got value on antepost and goes off short will invariably let you down and the one you had may not have had as high hopes for will come up Trumps.

Cheltenham 2020

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