Share Picks 2020

Bob Harris

Kilboor wrote: »

Bad news from NBRV, CRL issued due to inspection delay, glad I got out near my break even price.

I'd expect it to open down on Monday and bleed for a few days. Might pick up a few mid-week if that's the case.

iAcesHigh

daheff wrote: »

I'm in on this stock. I've been watching it for a few years and have to say it's a bizarre story. How do you misplace 2bn of your 2.2bn cash pile??? All the while having 2+bn of debt.

Revenue issues are also bizarre. These should be relatively easily proven during an audit.

KPMG had an investigation into the company and concluded there was no fraud, but notes they hadn't been given everything they requested.

Strange story all round.

They do seem to have a reasonable business model though...profitable, good margins etc.

Pure pint right now until loans/annual report/cash bals issues are resolved. IF they are, then can see this stock 100-200 quite quickly.....if not....could be a bank led sale....so probably nothing for shareholders.

Well, with CEO now gone and at least two Asian banks who supposedly held that money stating they don't have any relationship with this company, I feel this is even a bigger gamble then putting it all on one of the horses coming back to tracks. Honestly, I'm happy to be just an observer, especially since I was quite close to opening position 2 weeks ago...

Lex Luthor

Bob Harris wrote: »

I'd expect it to open down on Monday and bleed for a few days. Might pick up a few mid-week if that's the case.

same, I'll set a buy order in the 60's and see what happens, no harm in chancing it that low

Jim2007

daheff wrote: »

I'm in on this stock. I've been watching it for a few years and have to say it's a bizarre story. How do you misplace 2bn of your 2.2bn cash pile??? All the while having 2+bn of debt.

Revenue issues are also bizarre. These should be relatively easily proven during an audit.

KPMG had an investigation into the company and concluded there was no fraud, but notes they hadn't been given everything they requested.

Strange story all round.

They do seem to have a reasonable business model though...profitable, good margins etc.


Pure pint right now until loans/annual report/cash bals issues are resolved. IF they are, then can see this stock 100-200 quite quickly.....if not....could be a bank led sale....so probably nothing for shareholders.

Have you every done an audit, been involved in an investigation?

One of the basic things you do is verify the balance sheet items. You check all the documentation provided by the company and you verify the closing balance by independent confirmation directly from the third party.

Now you have just been told that the balances don't exist and not only that but the banks have no relationship with our client... so what the hell kind of documents has the client been presenting you with????

Now I have not read the KPMG report, but I have read a summary of it and to start with they were not asked to investigate fraud nor did the conclude that there was no fraud.

They were asked to review company's methods of accounting for third party business and they key thing to take away from it is that Wirecard treated these transactions as an extension of their own business, which is highly unusual and distorts the accounts.

On top of this the company actively tried to hinder the investigation, for example:

When KPMG requested minutes of quarterly meetings between the German company and its third-party business partners, Wirecard wrote that such minutes were not taken in 2016 and 2017. However, on April 23, Wirecard’s accountant EY handed over the minutes Wirecard had said did not exist.

So how you can conclude that they have "a reasonable business model though...profitable, good margins etc" is beyond me, since the accounts are very likely a fabrication.

RedRochey

Shedite27 wrote: »

I own PayPal. Also own Square and StoneCo. I love the simplicity of taking a cut from transactions. Money is dead, I have the same fiver in my wallet for 3 months now.

I reckon it continues to innovate and grow faster that Mastercard/Visa.

Is there an ETF built for this "war on cash" theme?

Bob24

Wirecard admitting that the 2 billions most likely don't exist: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-wirecard-accounts/wirecard-says-missing-2-1-billion-likely-did-not-exist-withdraws-forecasts-idUSKBN23T06V

Jim2007

Bob24 wrote: »

Wirecard admitting that the 2 billions most likely don't exist: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-wirecard-accounts/wirecard-says-missing-2-1-billion-likely-did-not-exist-withdraws-forecasts-idUSKBN23T06V

Well there is a shocker... not

Eventually all the fancy accounting washes out and it comes down to a simple matter of debits and credits. If you pump third Party business through the P&L, you are going to have to come up with a corresponding debit somewhere.

positron

So what happens now? Couple of bigwigs gets jail time, and wouldn't someone / some fund come up with the money for a chunk of the business, and then everything back to normal.. eventually?

Jim2007

positron wrote: »

So what happens now? Couple of bigwigs gets jail time, and wouldn't someone / some fund come up with the money for a chunk of the business, and then everything back to normal.. eventually?

Trying to find someone to plug a hole in a business where you have no idea what is real and what is not is a very big ask. If you were interested in acquiring any of the business you'd be better of to let it go and buy it of the liquidator, that way you'd have a better understand of what is there and avoid being on the hook for any undisclosed liabilities.

We will have to wait and see what happens on Friday.

Bob Harris

Added more FMCI on today's dip. There is another SPAC that looks interesting GRAF but they're only quoted on DeGiro in Frankfurt which puts me off a bit.

Lex Luthor

Lex Luthor wrote: »

same, I'll set a buy order in the 60's and see what happens, no harm in chancing it that low

had another quick scalp on NBRV today, set a buy order at 62c and it picked it up around midday, just sold off at 76c

Shedite27

Bob Harris wrote: »

Added more FMCI on today's dip. There is another SPAC that looks interesting GRAF but they're only quoted on DeGiro in Frankfurt which puts me off a bit.

Yeah after my successes with VTIQ (Nikola) and FMCI (Impossible Foods), I've opened some speculative positions on some other SPAC's.
OPES (Burger chain), sounds like I missed the big gains.
GPAQ - NFL Theme Park
FEAC - unknown target, but the company are mainly involved with sport-based listings, so there's a silly rumour that it'll UFC

They're small positions, not "investing" by any definition, somewhat more akin to lottery than anything, but seem to be a few quick gains in them.

Bob Harris

Shedite27 wrote: »

Yeah after my successes with VTIQ (Nikola) and FMCI (Impossible Foods), I've opened some speculative positions on some other SPAC's.
OPES (Burger chain), sounds like I missed the big gains.
GPAQ - NFL Theme Park
FEAC - unknown target, but the company are mainly involved with sport-based listings, so there's a silly rumour that it'll UFC

They're small positions, not "investing" by any definition, somewhat more akin to lottery than anything, but seem to be a few quick gains in them.

I was reading up on OPES and GPAQ - I wouldn't be too convinced by either. OPES has about 100 burger joints - I'm sure they'll grow this but they are just burger joints and I can't really see a USP. The other one, the NFL hall of fame theme park...800m investment..gonna need a lot of visitors to make it viable but they do like their NFL over there.

Kilboor

Lex Luthor wrote: »

had another quick scalp on NBRV today, set a buy order at 62c and it picked it up around midday, just sold off at 76c

Gem of a stock fair play. Think I'm done with it now.

I have two long term biotech stock picks.

$Anvs - Low cap, low volume, NYSE listed biotech approaching Parkinson's and Alzheimers differently to any other company so far. Genuinely interesting stuff.

Anyway animal studies have been positive so far and there's a number of catalysts over the next few months . Interim results of phase 2b trials on Alzheimers by year end, and dual results for Parkinson's and Alzheimers in Quarter 1 next year.

Enough cash to get them to next year so no dilutions. Warrants at 6 dollars.

$MIST - Cash laden biotech that has had a difficult year with a drug trial failing to meet its primary endpoint. Share price has taken quite the tumble but cash is always king for me and they're continuing with trialling for variations of the treatment. I'd be happy to take a gamble on it.

Again these are relatively long term holds compared to what I usually alert on here

Lex Luthor

Kilboor wrote: »

Gem of a stock fair play. Think I'm done with it now.

I have two long term biotech stock picks.

$Anvs - Low cap, low volume, NYSE listed biotech approaching Parkinson's and Alzheimers differently to any other company so far. Genuinely interesting stuff.

Anyway animal studies have been positive so far and there's a number of catalysts over the next few months . Interim results of phase 2b trials on Alzheimers by year end, and dual results for Parkinson's and Alzheimers in Quarter 1 next year.

Enough cash to get them to next year so no dilutions. Warrants at 6 dollars.

$MIST - Cash laden biotech that has had a difficult year with a drug trial failing to meet its primary endpoint. Share price has taken quite the tumble but cash is always king for me and they're continuing with trialling for variations of the treatment. I'd be happy to take a gamble on it.

Again these are relatively long term holds compared to what I usually alert on here

ya same here, I've had 3 goes at it and all worked out, time to stop being greedy and move on

must have a look at those 2 you mentioned

Taylor365

Taylor365 wrote: »

Took some profits on NDVA and AMD @ 245 and 45 respectively.

Made a list of 26 companies and a price I'll jump in at.

Going to review balance sheets and see how leveraged they are and decide whats a gamble and what will easily survive.

Pfff what a bum. This guy missed out on some serious gains! :pac:

ExMachina1000

Are you talking about regular stocks or cfds

in2dark

Lex Luthor wrote: »

had another quick scalp on NBRV today, set a buy order at 62c and it picked it up around midday, just sold off at 76c

today's low is 66cents how did you buy it at 62?

Kilboor

in2dark wrote: »

today's low is 66cents how did you buy it at 62?

All depends on the chart you're looking at, if you look at a candles model in 5 minute ticks it should show the lowest low.

No idea what it was myself.

in2dark

Kilboor wrote: »

All depends on the chart you're looking at, if you look at a candles model in 5 minute ticks it should show the lowest low.

No idea what it was myself.

No need for charts:

google:
Open0.68
High0.82
Low0.66
Mkt cap111.48M

and on yahoo:
Day's Range 0.6600 - 0.8200

Valhallapt

Any hot takes on Lufthansa? It looks like the current bailout proposals are in real danger of collapsing. I can't see the German government letting it go to the wall, will they improve the bailout conditions??? which might see a good jump is share price.

hottipper

Kilboor wrote: »

Kirkland's was my next go to but it's after increasing 75% after hours on store re opening news.

Still incredibly undervalued in my opinion even at those prices.

Solid tip kilboor out of the trade now thanks again

Kilboor

hottipper wrote: »

Solid tip kilboor out of the trade now thanks again

You're welcome! :cool:

omerin

Ktov up almost 35% today and 10% in after hours

Thargor

Thargor wrote: »

Anyone taking a punt on Wirecard? Id say its easy money tbh.

iAcesHigh wrote: »

easy money to lose money? It's pure gamble as it can obv jump up like Hertz did, but if fraud is proven it's going straight down to 0...

See? Easy money just as I predicted, you just had to short it as it dropped another 40-50% as I implied in my post :pac:

bfa1509

Too many day traders in this thread!

This is the perfect time for someone like me who wants a company built like a tank to put a nice chunk of savings into and leave it for 5 years without having to worry about it. I already have J&J from a good starting point in March. I'm thinking an oil stock like Exxon Mobil is a sure bet for the long term? I got some nice gains from NextEra Energy, KO and Merit Medical before the virus so thinking of getting back into these. Also had Disney in mind too. Surely everything is a bargain now if you are going long?

Any other picks for us slow coaches?

Kilboor

bfa1509 wrote: »

Too many day traders in this thread!

This is the perfect time for someone like me who wants a company built like a tank to put a nice chunk of savings into and leave it for 5 years without having to worry about it. I already have J&J from a good starting point in March. I'm thinking an oil stock like Exxon Mobil is a sure bet for the long term? I got some nice gains from NextEra Energy, KO and Merit Medical before the virus so thinking of getting back into these. Also had Disney in mind too. Surely everything is a bargain now if you are going long?

Any other picks for us slow coaches?

JPMorgan
Coca-Cola and/or Pepsi

Bob24

bfa1509 wrote: »

Too many day traders in this thread!

This is the perfect time for someone like me who wants a company built like a tank to put a nice chunk of savings into and leave it for 5 years without having to worry about it. I already have J&J from a good starting point in March. I'm thinking an oil stock like Exxon Mobil is a sure bet for the long term? I got some nice gains from NextEra Energy, KO and Merit Medical before the virus so thinking of getting back into these. Also had Disney in mind too. Surely everything is a bargain now if you are going long?

Any other picks for us slow coaches?

Any reason it has to be US based?

If the main criteria is to pick a super safe stock, what comes to my mind is Nestlé.

bfa1509

Bob24 wrote: »

Any reason it has to be US based?

If the main criteria is to pick a super safe stock, what comes to my mind is Nestlé.

No reason other than these stocks having better worldwide growth potential/market reach.

Probably would be a better idea sticking to European/London stocks at the moment until the dollar weakens a bit more (potentially).

Jim2007

bfa1509 wrote: »

Too many day traders in this thread!

This is the perfect time for someone like me who wants a company built like a tank to put a nice chunk of savings into and leave it for 5 years without having to worry about it. I already have J&J from a good starting point in March. I'm thinking an oil stock like Exxon Mobil is a sure bet for the long term? I got some nice gains from NextEra Energy, KO and Merit Medical before the virus so thinking of getting back into these. Also had Disney in mind too. Surely everything is a bargain now if you are going long?

Any other picks for us slow coaches?

Maybe do some homework on that... The gap opening up between the SP500 and the SP600, would suggest that all is not as it seems