Scottish independence

Fr Tod Umptious

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119938161#Comment_119938161

The suggestion is that if the SNP secures more than 50% of the Scottish vote (somethign, SFAIK, they have never done yet) they will treat that as a mandate from the voters of Scotland to pursue Scottish independence.

It was actually bang on 50% (with 94.9% of the seats, thank you very much FPTP) in 2015, a post indyref but pre Brexit election.

Last time, 2019 in the height of all the parliamentary Brexit rancour the SNP got 45%.

And in 2017 it was 36%.

So 50+% plus is not a million miles off achieving.

All depends on how Westminster behaves I think, obviously the more of a s**tshow it is the better for SNP.

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119942984#Comment_119942984

Yes and no.

If you loathe the Tories you have to choose between voting SNP, who offer liberation from the Tory yoke via Scottish independence, and Labour, who offer liberation from the Tory yoke via not having a Tory government. It's a nuanced choice - the SNP version is more permanent and certain if you achieve it, but also more difficult to achieve, so you have to trade off those two considerations.

But the decision is simplified if your judgement is that Labour isn't going to win this election anyway; you are then more likely to vote SNP. Which suggests that, in a UK general election, the more credible Labour looks at the national level, the more the SNP vote could be squeezed.

This doesn't mean that Scottish Labour voters might not be supporters of independence. They might be keen supporters of independence, but independence might not be the only thing they hope for, and they may prefer the Labour government in the hand over the prospect of Scottish independence in the bush some distance away.

So, more than 50% is not unattainable for the SNP, but in the current climate I think it's a very challenging target.

Grassey

If the mindset holds as the demographic ages then surely its only a matter of when...

Redfield & Wilton Strategies carried out the poll on November 26-27, days after the UK Supreme Court ruled another independence referendum cannot be held without Westminster’s consent.

Support for independence was higher than a comparable poll on 18 September last year, when 44% of respondents said they would vote Yes while 47% said they would vote No.

The latest poll, of 1,000 Scottish voters, also found 46% said they would support a referendum on Scottish independence being held in the next year, while 43% would oppose one, 9% said they would neither support nor oppose the prospect, and 2% said they did not know.

New Scotland Poll ICYMI: Independence support grows. Here are details on YES lead by age group:

16-24: 64%

25-34: 61%

35-44: 55%

45-54: 51%

55-64: 53%

65+: 39%

Mr.Nice Guy

The numbers for the younger demographics make it a case of 'if' and not 'when' independence happens. If Starmer came out strongly against Brexit, that might be enough to shift the numbers to hold things off in the short-term; but, as things stand now, England's politics makes Scottish independence inevitable.

eire4

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119944747#Comment_119944747

The numbers look good there especially under 35 but also when you look at all the ages only 65 and older does not have a majority in support of independence. Personally I think brexit was the nail in the coffin so to speak in terms of the UK. Just a matter of when now really.

Mr.Nice Guy

I see Ian Blackford has resigned as the SNP's Westminster leader. Stephen Flynn the favourite to replace him - I must admit I don't know anything about him.

satguy

So poor old Ian Blackford has resigned as the SNP's Westminster leader.

I can feel his pain, it is a thankless job.. The Tory Party wanted Brexit so bad, they lied to the people and their Queen.

With that said, there was a vote,, and it was to stay in the UK..

With that said.. Brexit and the Tory Party did pull Scotland out of the EU,, So, Now the question is " Does that invalidate that last Scottish independence vote. ??????

For me the answer is YES ,, and in the next year or so we should see another Scottish independence Referendum,, The outcome of which is binding for the next hundred years or so.. If it is again a NO

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119946986#Comment_119946986

There seems to be this weird notion in the UK that a referendum is some kind of Harry Potter incantation that will magically produce a settled and enduring consensus where none existed before.

In mature democracies we do not generally labour under this delusion.

A referendum is just one more decision-making tool in the toolbox of democracy. A decision made by referendum is as susceptible of further democratic review as any other decision — why would it be, unless you think of a referendum not as a tool of democracy but as a tool for terminating democracy?

If the political, economic, etc circumstances that influenced a particular decision change, there is absolutely no reason not to revisit the decision. The fact that the decision was taken by referendum is certainly not such a reason.

A Dub in Glasgo

100% agree Peregrinus

The amount of times unionists have said the 2014 referendum settled it and you have no right to even consider another referendum is unreal. They would gladly take Scotland being annihilated as long as Scotland was not an independent cou ntry

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119950337#Comment_119950337

I presume if/when the SNP win a referendum, the case will then be settled forever?

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119962733#Comment_119962733

No more ‘forever’ than “that” 2016 referendum, or Ireland’s own 1922 ‘referendum’ (-after a fashion) 😉

Never is a long time and, ironically enough, it’s always absolutists like unionists who forget that first…when it suits.

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119962733#Comment_119962733

It depends if there is significant will to rerun the referendum. Obviously this would dependent on the UK taking them back as well. However I would suspect that unless there is a massive collapse after an independence referendum that a party with unionism as its main aim would not be winning election after election like the SNP in Scotland are doing currently.

Obviously the matter is not currently settled given the SNP keep winning elections while campaigning for an independent Scotland.

It is the way of these things that the vote for no change tends to have those that don't care as much so if enough people vote for change it leaves the opposition in a massive minority as their numbers were boosted by those who don't care as much or just go for the status quo and they no longer match the status quo. The exception being Brexit which was a disaster and took a long time to actually enact anything resembling the initial promise of leaving the EU that those following the status quo didn't switch over.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119962785#Comment_119962785

Unionists are absolutists? where on earth did you drag that one from? Surely if nationalists believe that a yes vote settles the question for ever, then they are absolutists as well? Suggest a referendum in Ireland on rejoining the UK and watch the nationalists throw around phrases such as traitor, or more likely in our case "If you don't like it, then **** and live somewhere else".

I can however, understand the SNP's impatience. The call for Independence is about the only thing they are managing not to completely **** up at the moment, so resorting to good old fashioned nationalism is their best option to getting re-elected. It is an ideal distraction from failing education standards, a health care system so near collapse they are considering a two tier system and the hundreds of millions wasted in dodgy ferry and steel deals.

Even the UN are criticising them now, such is their rush to introduce more populist laws.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119962884#Comment_119962884

if yes wins by 2 - 3% then there will be significant will to re run the referendum, whatever the outcome.

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119962913#Comment_119962913

I doubt it. Check out the divorce referendum here. Took two runs and barely passed at all. Barely a word about it afterwards. People saw the world didn't collapse and didn't care enough to fight for a new one.

I am sure that some will try and push for a re run but I would expect it to be a vocal minority. I would add that if it is more than that I would support a re run.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119962891#Comment_119962891

Anyone who believes that a referendum could ever settle a democratic or political question ‘forever’ is an absolutist.

They’re a tool in the box of democratic consultative processes, mandatory or not according to legislative circumstances, with outcomes binding or not likewise according to legislative circumstances. And they can be used as frequently, or infrequently, as due process or political opportunities dictate. Nothing more, and nothing less.

There’s no need to float the strawman-esque notion of an Irish referendum to “rejoin the UK”, when there is precisely zero political appetite for it anywhere, and still less of that under the current stats and figures demonstrating the dividend of Ireland’s EU membership vindicating the earlier democratic choices about same.

I don’t particularly follow or support the SNP, so that diatribe about “failing education standards, a health care system so near collapse they are considering a two tier system and the hundreds of millions wasted in dodgy ferry and steel deals” is quite wasted on me I’m afraid. But objectively, looking at the southerly neighbour over the last few years…there’s a pot of a decidedly dark shade of grey, that wants a word with a kettle.

serfboard

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119962940#Comment_119962940

Another example would be the abortion referendum. After it passed, Gerard Quinn, who would be on the oppposing side, conceeded that it would be a generation before the issue could/would be looked at again.

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119963375#Comment_119963375

You mentioned Ireland's own 1922 referendum, I presume as you considered it a relevant point.

Unlike your whataboutery, which isn't valid.

breezy1985

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119934426#Comment_119934426

Works for Sinn Fein and if it is by elections each individual area would not get voter fatigue.

One problem for the SNP though that many NI parties have learned is that constant campaigning is a massive drain on cash.

I wouldn't go that route if I was SNP because I think it suits their image to be grownups which are is short supply in Westminster.

ambro25

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119963420#Comment_119963420

I took care to mention “after a fashion” (there was no referendum then, though there certainly was a democratic decision through a vote in June), which you seem to have missed: Ireland regained its sovereignty in 1922 through that vote, yet that did not stop it from re-pooling aspects of its sovereignty with the EU some decades later, did it?

So, quid of ‘forever’.

As for my ‘whattaboutery’, who put 50p in you, then? 🙄

A Dub in Glasgo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119962733#Comment_119962733

No, if that is what the people want. The difference here is I see no problem reconsidering a decision made by the people. You appear not want the people to reconsider

Meanwhile, in other news

https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1600460691722346496

Peregrinus

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119962733#Comment_119962733

No. The case is settled forever — or as near "forever" as any political question can be — when Scotland actually becomes independent.

There are examples in history of successful independence referendums which did not proceed to deliver independence because, e.g., political circumstances changed and the support for independence dissipated before independence could be achieved. That could happen in Scotland.

But I'm not aware of any historical instance in which a nation voted for independence, achieved independence, and later changed its mind and voluntarily went back into the larger state from which it had seceded. If Scotland does leave the UK it is very, very unlikely that it will ever rejoin.

Sam Russell

Just think of the situation here in Ireland.

I doubt that a vote to rejoin the UK (in the unlikely event such a vote was called) would get much more than 10%, if even that, because we like being who we are and see that best served by being independent - even if we make mistakes.

Also, a vote to leave the EU would get very little more support than that - because we know that we like the EU. I think there is no single issue that would galvanise even a little traction to get a leave campaign going.

I am sure that the Scottish would be the same if ever they get as far as voting to be independent.

ancapailldorcha

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119970327#Comment_119970327

I think the Irish electorate are cannier than they get credit for. Take the Peter Casey thing, for instance. They were happy to indulge him a bit and feed him some rope but when it came to crunch time, he got a mere fifth of the vote. It's one thing to entertain the nuclear option, another entirely to actually commit to it.

Sam Russell

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119970373#Comment_119970373

That is one of the mistakes I referenced. Occasionally a nasty individual rises from the sewers and gets publicity and gets traction from the media and appears to get some level of popularity. But then we rise above populism and we choose the best choice - Michael D.

pixelburp

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119967886#Comment_119967886

Looks like contextually, that 56% was arrived at when the Don't Knows were ignored: either way, the numbers tick, tick, tick upwards.

https://www.thenational.scot/news/23175582.scottish-independence-support-56-ipsos-mori-poll-finds/

A Dub in Glasgo

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119970834#Comment_119970834

Including Don't Know

Yes: 53%

No: 42%

DK: 5%

Sam Russell

That is a very low number for Don't Know.

More important is the 'Not voting'.

ancapailldorcha

The last result anyone wants is a narrow win for either side. Look at the rancour that still persists in the Brexit referendum with it's 51.9% vote for Leave.

Christy42

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/119971121#Comment_119971121

I think it is more important to have a clear referendum and to enact what is promised. I would go as far as to suggest initial independence be mild but include the ability to gain more independence. If you see Ireland which initially remained within the commonwealth.

For a referendum see Ireland's divorce referendum. It was run twice in quick succession and passed the 2nd time by an incredibly narrow margin (and if you see the map, many places were close to 50% but Dublin was the only place in the country that had more than 50% yes). And yet barely a word after it. Have a clear result from the referendum, enact it as promised. Don't promise 2nd votes or single markets and then pull back.