Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie

Scottish independence

19899101103104117

Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 2,393 ✭✭✭Grassey


    If the mindset holds as the demographic ages then surely its only a matter of when...




    Redfield & Wilton Strategies carried out the poll on November 26-27, days after the UK Supreme Court ruled another independence referendum cannot be held without Westminster’s consent.


    Support for independence was higher than a comparable poll on 18 September last year, when 44% of respondents said they would vote Yes while 47% said they would vote No.


    The latest poll, of 1,000 Scottish voters, also found 46% said they would support a referendum on Scottish independence being held in the next year, while 43% would oppose one, 9% said they would neither support nor oppose the prospect, and 2% said they did not know.



    New Scotland Poll ICYMI: Independence support grows. Here are details on YES lead by age group:


    16-24: 64%

    25-34: 61%

    35-44: 55%

    45-54: 51%

    55-64: 53%

    65+: 39%



  • Registered Users Posts: 45,535 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    The numbers for the younger demographics make it a case of 'if' and not 'when' independence happens. If Starmer came out strongly against Brexit, that might be enough to shift the numbers to hold things off in the short-term; but, as things stand now, England's politics makes Scottish independence inevitable.

    'It is better to walk alone in the right direction than follow the herd walking in the wrong direction.'



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,593 ✭✭✭eire4


    The numbers look good there especially under 35 but also when you look at all the ages only 65 and older does not have a majority in support of independence. Personally I think brexit was the nail in the coffin so to speak in terms of the UK. Just a matter of when now really.



  • Registered Users Posts: 45,535 ✭✭✭✭Mr.Nice Guy


    I see Ian Blackford has resigned as the SNP's Westminster leader. Stephen Flynn the favourite to replace him - I must admit I don't know anything about him.

    'It is better to walk alone in the right direction than follow the herd walking in the wrong direction.'



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,737 ✭✭✭satguy


    So poor old Ian Blackford has resigned as the SNP's Westminster leader.

    I can feel his pain, it is a thankless job.. The Tory Party wanted Brexit so bad, they lied to the people and their Queen.

    With that said, there was a vote,, and it was to stay in the UK..

    With that said.. Brexit and the Tory Party did pull Scotland out of the EU,, So, Now the question is " Does that invalidate that last Scottish independence vote. ??????

    For me the answer is YES ,, and in the next year or so we should see another Scottish independence Referendum,, The outcome of which is binding for the next hundred years or so.. If it is again a NO



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users Posts: 25,907 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    There seems to be this weird notion in the UK that a referendum is some kind of Harry Potter incantation that will magically produce a settled and enduring consensus where none existed before.

    In mature democracies we do not generally labour under this delusion.

    A referendum is just one more decision-making tool in the toolbox of democracy. A decision made by referendum is as susceptible of further democratic review as any other decision — why would it be, unless you think of a referendum not as a tool of democracy but as a tool for terminating democracy?

    If the political, economic, etc circumstances that influenced a particular decision change, there is absolutely no reason not to revisit the decision. The fact that the decision was taken by referendum is certainly not such a reason.



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,935 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    100% agree Peregrinus

    The amount of times unionists have said the 2014 referendum settled it and you have no right to even consider another referendum is unreal. They would gladly take Scotland being annihilated as long as Scotland was not an independent cou ntry





  • I presume if/when the SNP win a referendum, the case will then be settled forever?



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,991 ✭✭✭ambro25


    No more ‘forever’ than “that” 2016 referendum, or Ireland’s own 1922 ‘referendum’ (-after a fashion) 😉

    Never is a long time and, ironically enough, it’s always absolutists like unionists who forget that first…when it suits.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,861 ✭✭✭Christy42


    It depends if there is significant will to rerun the referendum. Obviously this would dependent on the UK taking them back as well. However I would suspect that unless there is a massive collapse after an independence referendum that a party with unionism as its main aim would not be winning election after election like the SNP in Scotland are doing currently.


    Obviously the matter is not currently settled given the SNP keep winning elections while campaigning for an independent Scotland.


    It is the way of these things that the vote for no change tends to have those that don't care as much so if enough people vote for change it leaves the opposition in a massive minority as their numbers were boosted by those who don't care as much or just go for the status quo and they no longer match the status quo. The exception being Brexit which was a disaster and took a long time to actually enact anything resembling the initial promise of leaving the EU that those following the status quo didn't switch over.



  • Advertisement


  • Unionists are absolutists? where on earth did you drag that one from? Surely if nationalists believe that a yes vote settles the question for ever, then they are absolutists as well? Suggest a referendum in Ireland on rejoining the UK and watch the nationalists throw around phrases such as traitor, or more likely in our case "If you don't like it, then **** and live somewhere else".

    I can however, understand the SNP's impatience. The call for Independence is about the only thing they are managing not to completely **** up at the moment, so resorting to good old fashioned nationalism is their best option to getting re-elected. It is an ideal distraction from failing education standards, a health care system so near collapse they are considering a two tier system and the hundreds of millions wasted in dodgy ferry and steel deals.

    Even the UN are criticising them now, such is their rush to introduce more populist laws.





  • if yes wins by 2 - 3% then there will be significant will to re run the referendum, whatever the outcome.



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,861 ✭✭✭Christy42


    I doubt it. Check out the divorce referendum here. Took two runs and barely passed at all. Barely a word about it afterwards. People saw the world didn't collapse and didn't care enough to fight for a new one.


    I am sure that some will try and push for a re run but I would expect it to be a vocal minority. I would add that if it is more than that I would support a re run.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,991 ✭✭✭ambro25


    Anyone who believes that a referendum could ever settle a democratic or political question ‘forever’ is an absolutist.

    They’re a tool in the box of democratic consultative processes, mandatory or not according to legislative circumstances, with outcomes binding or not likewise according to legislative circumstances. And they can be used as frequently, or infrequently, as due process or political opportunities dictate. Nothing more, and nothing less.

    There’s no need to float the strawman-esque notion of an Irish referendum to “rejoin the UK”, when there is precisely zero political appetite for it anywhere, and still less of that under the current stats and figures demonstrating the dividend of Ireland’s EU membership vindicating the earlier democratic choices about same.

    I don’t particularly follow or support the SNP, so that diatribe about “failing education standards, a health care system so near collapse they are considering a two tier system and the hundreds of millions wasted in dodgy ferry and steel deals” is quite wasted on me I’m afraid. But objectively, looking at the southerly neighbour over the last few years…there’s a pot of a decidedly dark shade of grey, that wants a word with a kettle.



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,663 ✭✭✭serfboard


    Another example would be the abortion referendum. After it passed, Gerard Quinn, who would be on the oppposing side, conceeded that it would be a generation before the issue could/would be looked at again.





  • You mentioned Ireland's own 1922 referendum, I presume as you considered it a relevant point.

    Unlike your whataboutery, which isn't valid.



  • Registered Users Posts: 24,014 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Works for Sinn Fein and if it is by elections each individual area would not get voter fatigue.

    One problem for the SNP though that many NI parties have learned is that constant campaigning is a massive drain on cash.

    I wouldn't go that route if I was SNP because I think it suits their image to be grownups which are is short supply in Westminster.



  • Registered Users Posts: 5,991 ✭✭✭ambro25


    I took care to mention “after a fashion” (there was no referendum then, though there certainly was a democratic decision through a vote in June), which you seem to have missed: Ireland regained its sovereignty in 1922 through that vote, yet that did not stop it from re-pooling aspects of its sovereignty with the EU some decades later, did it?

    So, quid of ‘forever’.

    As for my ‘whattaboutery’, who put 50p in you, then? 🙄



  • Registered Users Posts: 16,935 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    No, if that is what the people want. The difference here is I see no problem reconsidering a decision made by the people. You appear not want the people to reconsider


    Meanwhile, in other news




  • Registered Users Posts: 25,907 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    No. The case is settled forever — or as near "forever" as any political question can be — when Scotland actually becomes independent.

    There are examples in history of successful independence referendums which did not proceed to deliver independence because, e.g., political circumstances changed and the support for independence dissipated before independence could be achieved. That could happen in Scotland.

    But I'm not aware of any historical instance in which a nation voted for independence, achieved independence, and later changed its mind and voluntarily went back into the larger state from which it had seceded. If Scotland does leave the UK it is very, very unlikely that it will ever rejoin.



  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,254 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Just think of the situation here in Ireland.

    I doubt that a vote to rejoin the UK (in the unlikely event such a vote was called) would get much more than 10%, if even that, because we like being who we are and see that best served by being independent - even if we make mistakes.

    Also, a vote to leave the EU would get very little more support than that - because we know that we like the EU. I think there is no single issue that would galvanise even a little traction to get a leave campaign going.

    I am sure that the Scottish would be the same if ever they get as far as voting to be independent.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 36,787 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I think the Irish electorate are cannier than they get credit for. Take the Peter Casey thing, for instance. They were happy to indulge him a bit and feed him some rope but when it came to crunch time, he got a mere fifth of the vote. It's one thing to entertain the nuclear option, another entirely to actually commit to it.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,254 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    That is one of the mistakes I referenced. Occasionally a nasty individual rises from the sewers and gets publicity and gets traction from the media and appears to get some level of popularity. But then we rise above populism and we choose the best choice - Michael D.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,720 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Looks like contextually, that 56% was arrived at when the Don't Knows were ignored: either way, the numbers tick, tick, tick upwards.




  • Registered Users Posts: 16,935 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo




  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,254 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    That is a very low number for Don't Know.

    More important is the 'Not voting'.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 36,787 CMod ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    The last result anyone wants is a narrow win for either side. Look at the rancour that still persists in the Brexit referendum with it's 51.9% vote for Leave.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 7,861 ✭✭✭Christy42


    I think it is more important to have a clear referendum and to enact what is promised. I would go as far as to suggest initial independence be mild but include the ability to gain more independence. If you see Ireland which initially remained within the commonwealth.


    For a referendum see Ireland's divorce referendum. It was run twice in quick succession and passed the 2nd time by an incredibly narrow margin (and if you see the map, many places were close to 50% but Dublin was the only place in the country that had more than 50% yes). And yet barely a word after it. Have a clear result from the referendum, enact it as promised. Don't promise 2nd votes or single markets and then pull back.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 35,720 CMod ✭✭✭✭pixelburp


    Yes, but unlike Brexit, there WILL have to be a clear, codified path out of the union involving years of negotiations. Easy to forget just how long a road post-Yes will be. It'd be impossible not to, and I've seen no evidence this independence movement is that irrational they'd wing it to the extent Brexit did.

    A narrow win might simply involve more functional concessions towards the "losing" unionist vote, I daresay the degree to which Yes might win would dictate the ... severity of independence. I just don't see the kind of acrimony at the heart of this movement at all compared with Brexit



  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,254 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    The most contentious topic in Ireland in the last 40 years was the abortion issue. 1983, the push for a referendum came out of nowhere and was pushed by FF as a away to get votes and into power.

    The wording was dreadful, but it was pushed from every pulpit in the land.

    Unleashing an issue was unwise in that it would bring abortion when there was no push for it. Hard cases caused the subject to be revisited three times, with looser rules each time.

    No politicians wanted to visit the subject because it was so divisive. Few even wanted it raised.

    However, the Citizen's Assembly was invented and came to the rescue. 99 represented citizens were selected to consider the subject, being informed by a series of experts of many different views. They voted on various aspects and their considerations were eventually put to the people. The vote was carried by almost the same proportion as the CA had i their vote on the matter.

    So, if Scotland wants to decide on independence, that is the methodology to follow. Expert advice, closely argued by interested citizens acting honestly for the common good.



Advertisement