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Scottish independence

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Comments

  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 84,932 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Capt'n Midnight


    The poverty is why is should be a separate region. And not repeat our mistake of lumping not as poor counties into the BMW regions to maximise short term EU grants which then dried up as the comparatively richer counties lifted the average up even though the poorer counties alone the border were still poor.

    By lumping it in with richer counties it won't qualify for state aid, which is the sort of slight of hand you'd expect from the Tories.

    It's something we may have to look at here in a UI with north east Antrim having different rules.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,619 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    However regions are set up, there will always be areas that are rich and others poor.

    Even within Dublin 4 - the richest area in Dublin, there are areas of poverty. Every city, ant town, have areas of poverty and areas of wealth. That is just he way it is. Each regi0nal authority has to deal with this as necessary - however there are divided.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 29,451 CMod ✭✭✭✭ pixelburp


    As much as I might agree with the concept, there's a degree of pointlessness to the discussion: there's more chance of me being elected PM than there is that the UK might properly federalist ala Germany. And unlike Germany, there's no resting feeling of self-determination and defined national identity in - say - Bavaria, as there is in Scotland. Just reforming the House of Lords feels like a fools errand, the introduction of PR a dream. Federalisatiom? No chance.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,619 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    Well, yes.

    The UK are unlikely to become a federation, but Scotland IS likely to be a separate independent state.

    Now whether it will be a republic or a monarchy is yet to be decided.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,524 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    Scotland has a natural border with England, and a huge difference in culture. Even the accent changes as the border is crossed.

    But that huge difference in culture was still not enough to get independence across the line in 2014, nor is it enough now to push polls above mid 50% range.

    There just doesn't seem to be enough people finding themselves culturally different enough to break away from the UK.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,619 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    The same techniques were used of fear uncertainty and doubt that undermined the well presented proposal of why Scotland could benefit from independence, by the idea the Scotland would be ejected from the EU and not allowed to use the GBP which was all nonsense. They got ejected from the EU by the English anyway, and allowed no say in the terms of the ejection from the EU. As for the GBP - well they had no power to stop them.

    The Scots just need to increase the level of emotion in their argument.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,493 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas


    Yes, lack of a written constitution was dependent on parliamentarians and Government being honest, decent and having integrity.

    It couldn't possibly cope with the Parliament being taken over by a bunch of liars and crooks with badness in their hearts aka the current English Tory Brexit Party.



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,524 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    The Scots just need to increase the level of emotion in their argument.

    But what if that emotion doesn't even exist ?

    It was different 100 years ago for Ireland, religion was a huge factor, and going back centuries we were always seen as uncultured savages.

    But no such factors exist in 2022 between Scotland and the rest of the UK.

    And also looking for independence to just go and join another "union", different and all as it maybe is hardly a recipe for success.



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,493 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas


    Scotland doesn't want to leave the UK simply to join the EU. It wants to be an independent state (the SNP is a nationalist party, not a 'let's join the EU' party).



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,524 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    One of the main drivers for this push for independence so soon after it was rejected in 2014 is Brexit and the fact that Scotland voted Remain.

    The problem for the SNP is that without rejoining the EU their modus operandi for independence is lacking substance.

    There is not the groundswell of nationalism and nationalist identity to get them over the line.

    The SNP are very much on for rejoining the EU.




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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,619 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    I think that the push for Scottish nationalism is that Scotland is different from England.

    Scotland is easily identified as Scottish as it has its own legal system, and it has a strong identity and a strong culture that is very different from English culture. The UK is basically England plus a few other places that do not matter to the powers that control the UK.

    As usual, the English Unionists try to drive the argument down a cul de sac and then claim that there is no way out. Or alternatively they produce strawmen that prove nothing but divert the argument into nothing to see. The UK is basically undemocratic because of the STV system that gives power to the two main parties, and that will not change anytime soon. Also with both Labour and Tories being adamant they will fight against Scottish independence with every sinew, using the law and every trick they can think of, the SNP need to keep at it.

    The plan to re-join the EU is not to join another oppressive union, but to gain another avenue that leaves to better opportunities, where the Scottish can achieve more in union with other like minded modern democracies. Study the origin of the EEC/EU project to inform yourself, while also remembering to origins of the British Empire, and the peace and serenity it brought to all the lands they captured, robbed their resources and enslaved the natives.

    The cry for the Scottish nationalists should be 'LET SCOLTAND DECIDE' for three words.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,082 ✭✭✭ eire4


    How about the SNP members of Parliament slowly one by one resign from parliament and force a long series of by elections with the SNP fighting each one on an Indy platform. This would keep the question firmly to the fore and in the age of social media could become a massive embarrassment for the UK government in refusing Scotland its independence referendum. Currently the SNP has 45 MP's so they could really drag this tactic out and make an absolute mockery of the UK's refusal to grant them a referendum.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,619 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    That would be a good strategy if they could guaranty winning every time. I think the electorate would lose focus very quickly, particularly if the Tories took punitive action against the tactic.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,580 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    I don't think so. I think it would look quite stroppy on their part and people would quickly get fed up of it. No point in voting for someone if they're just going to step down to play silly games.

    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 17,619 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Sam Russell


    Exactly what I was saying only expressed differently.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,580 CMod ✭✭✭✭ ancapailldorcha


    We sat again for an hour and a half discussing maps and figures and always getting back to that most damnable creation of the perverted ingenuity of man - the County of Tyrone.

    H. H. Asquith



  • Registered Users Posts: 14,493 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas


    Its raison d'etre is Scottish independence. The SNP was a strong political force 'whilst' Scotland was still in the EU - the EU aspect is almost a sideshow.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 84,932 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Capt'n Midnight


    Scotland could easily join the EFTA in the interim. That gets a lot of the EU benefits without having to accept all of the EU membership duties day one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,237 ✭✭✭ rock22


    Could it? Not too sure that other Norway would accept, especially if it was only as an interim measure to EU membership.

    What is extraordinary, to me at least, is that after the absolute UK political chaos of the past six years 45% of people in Scotland still want to remain in the UK.

    Before any thought of an independent Scotland joining anything, the politicians there need to determine why such a large number of Scots prefer aligning with a dis-functional UK rather than having independence.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 14,493 ✭✭✭✭ Strazdas


    'Scottish unionists' tend to be a rather odd bunch. Not entirely dissimilar to hardcore Tory voters south of the border and DUP voters to the west - right wing and conservative and in love with the British monarchy and so on (these would be the Scottish guys who voted for Brexit in 2016, despite it clearly being an English nationalist project).



  • Registered Users Posts: 13,524 ✭✭✭✭ Fr Tod Umptious


    It's kinda like the "Minimum alcohol pricing is nigh" thread over in AH

    When MUP came in in January 2022 we were all told

    "Just wait till people are back drinking after dry January and there will be a lot of anger about this"

    Then it was

    "Just wait till Paddy's Day ......."

    Then

    "Just wait till Easter...."

    Then

    "Just wait till summer and people want a slab of beer for a BBQ"

    But here we are almost a year in and there has been no public anger.

    It's the same with Scottish independence.

    Every misstep (and there have been many) has resulted in people telling us, "Just wait and see the next opinion poll and the support for independence soar up.."

    But it has never happened.

    It's stuck in the mid 50s.

    My own opinion is that the Scotts are far more British than people here like to think.



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,796 ✭✭✭✭ Peregrinus


    "Still stuck in the mid 50s", eh?

    Just before the Brexit referendum it was in the mid 30s. It has been on an upward trend ever since.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,082 ✭✭✭ eire4


    You might be right. I might be right. Who knows. But one thing is clear to accelerate their push for independence the SNP do need a bold strategy and so far IMHO I am not seeing that.



  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 29,451 CMod ✭✭✭✭ pixelburp


    Define "British" as an identity without making it sound like "English". Not being smart, am asking cos it's one of those identities that I've never seen a tangible, quantifiable explanation.

    Have you even seen a graph of trending support for Independence? You know full well it has been ticking up and up, especially since Brexit. Whether that translates into a Yes someday remains to be seen - manys a slip twixt cup and lip - but it'd be foolish to ignore the reality that the feeling for Scottish self-determination has never been stronger in the modern age. Holyrood was the crack in the ice.



  • Registered Users Posts: 6,082 ✭✭✭ eire4


    If the Tories took punitive action I think that would just play into the SNP's hands. But in any case that is my thought on what the SNP could do next to further their push for independence, purely an opinion. Personally IMHO it would create a real focus on the denial of the referendum by London and make a mockery of it. They could easily guarantee wins by going one by election at a time, making sure to go with their safest seats first. They do have 45 so I would think it would be quite some time before they would run into seats that would not be safe.



  • Registered Users Posts: 23,796 ✭✭✭✭ Peregrinus


    I don't think the SNP would do this, not least because voters generally don't like elections, and the idea of a rolling series of bye-elections would probably strike voters as especially unappealing.

    Plus, the obvious response from the Tories is to decline to stand in the bye-elections. This costs them nothing, since they are not going to win the bye-elections anyway; it ties in with a denunciation of the bye-elections as meaningless tokenism/grandstanding; and it would undermine any attempt by the SNP to present the bye-election results as a series of local plebiscites on the position of the Westminster government if the Westminster government doesn't have candidates in the bye-elections.

    Sturgeon's announced position is in fact to the treat the next UK general election, in Scotland, as a de facto referendum on independence. The suggestion is that if the SNP secures more than 50% of the Scottish vote (somethign, SFAIK, they have never done yet) they will treat that as a mandate from the voters of Scotland to pursue Scottish independence. She hasn't as yet said what the SNP will do to pursue independence, given that mandate, but so far the SNP has been firmly committed to lawful and constitutional means, and I think it would be a huge risk to move away from that.

    To be clear; I am not alluding here to the possibility that the SNP would seek independence by force - there is zero chance of that. But, given a democratic mandate, they could consider campaigns of non-cooperation with Westminster, disobedience, protest, etc - e.g. Scottish national and local government institutions refusing to co-operate with the exercise of Westminster authority in Scotland — Ghandian tactics, in short, designed to highlight the lack of democratic legitimacy of Westminster rule in Scotland. The SNP has always set its face against that and I think still will, even if they get the mandate they seek at the next election. But if they are not going to do that, what are they going to do? This, I think, will be the dominant issue at the SNP conference next year.)



  • Registered Users Posts: 4,179 ✭✭✭ maninasia


    Strange comparison. They don't need support to soar just to harden a solid base of independence supporters.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,237 ✭✭✭ rock22


    While there has been both low and high support I think the trend is 'steady' rather than significantly upward

    It actually fell after 2014 and only recovered that level of support in 2019.

    But my point was that, in light of a current dis-functional UK political establishment, that still 45% of people still seem to prefer the union to independence. I would have thought that any rational, politically aware person would do anything to get away from the toxic mess that is Westminster right now. If there isn't 'overwhelming' support for independence in the current circumstances, then it is very hard to see it growing further.

    @Peregrinus "But if they are not going to do that, what are they going to do? This, I think, will be the dominant issue at the SNP conference next year."

    I personally think that many Scots are too cautious and fear independence as a leap into the unknown. The SNP need to argue that the uncertainty is with the Union and Westminster rather than with independence, where Scottish people are free to make their own decisions. And they can do this with reference to the EU and brexit by showing that the very thing they feared in 2014, that an independent Scotland would be outside the EU, has come to pass against their wishes. What other bad decisions could be made for them in the future by a government in Westminster? The only way to ensure input into those decisions is to make decisions for Scotland and its' people in Scotland.

    Scottish ministers also need to canvass support abroad, especially in US. They cannot talk directly to the administration, but they can begin to canvass representatives with Scottish backgrounds in order to build up critical support there.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 6,082 ✭✭✭ eire4


    Agreed. I don't think what I suggested as a strategy is one the SNP would undertake it was simply my suggestion. What is clear though is they do need some sort of bold strategy to move the cause for an independence referendum along from where it is stuck currently with London refusing permission for a referendum and thus making it clear the UK is not a voluntary union but rather a forced one controlled by the English.



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