ESB eCars pricing introduction

McGiver

ELM327 wrote: »

So a 47k model 3 is niche?
Disagree. Will be possibly the most sold EV this year.

How many % is 300 out of 10,000? :P
3% of all EVs in Ireland. 1.9% if I include PHEVs.
Seriously guys...

Only 15% of the market is 50kW+ capable. We'll see at the end of 2020. But I don't think 50kW+ capable will be majority by then.

McGiver

Marlow wrote: »

Erhh ?

Tesla sold 270 cars in Ireland last year. That is more than twice the amount of 2018.

Take into consideration, that Tesla only sell BEV and nothing else.

Or to put it in comparison: 3444 BEVs were sold in Ireland last year. Tesla is nearly 8% of that. That's not niche anymore.

/M

It's 3% of all BEVs, that's what I meant. Small blip in large scale of things.

ELM327

McGiver wrote: »

How many % is 300 out of 10,000? :P
3% of all EVs in Ireland. 1.9% if I include PHEVs.
Seriously guys...

Only 15% of the market is 50kW+ capable. We'll see at the end of 2020. But I don't think 50kW+ capable will be majority by then.

This time next year, the majority of the "fleet" will be >50kW capable.
The majority of new BEV sold are already 50kW capable.

McGiver

ELM327 wrote: »

That's the limit for CCS1, 200a.
Above 200a requires CCS2 and cooled cables.


(As an aside, this is why the triplets are limited to 80kW theoretical max)

Not necessarily. At least not according to this (from a DC charger provider):

The European Commission adopted the CCS type 2 charging cables as the standard for Europe in 2013, setting an important milestone in European fast-charging technology.

During charging, the CCS type 2 DC charging cables are locked into place electromechanically via a locking actuator integrated into the vehicle charging inlet. The charging cables comply with standard IEC 62196-3 and are VDE-certified.

Uncooled:

80 A / 1000 V DC (metric)
150 A / 1000 V DC (metric)
200 A / 1000 V DC (metric)

Cooled – High Power Charging:
400 A / 1000 V DC (metric)
500 A / 1000 V DC (metric)

ELM327

McGiver wrote: »

Not necessarily. At least not according to this (from a DC charger provider):

The link you have provided supports the CCS1 limit at 200a (which as a component of the protocol is clearly defined and not up for debate anyway).

I'm not sure what you were aiming at?

McGiver

ELM327 wrote: »

This time next year, the majority of the "fleet" will be >50kW capable.
The majority of new BEV sold are already 50kW capable.

Bet? I say, it won't or it will be a close to 50% at most :cool:

Leaf will sell well, I'd say they'll keep at least 30% of the market share. Zoe will sell too. I can't see 50kW+ cars to grow so quickly to offset a) existing fleet, b) imports and c) <50kW capable sales.

McGiver

liamog wrote: »

Ionity is usually 150kW equipment not 125kW.

Sorry, I said 125kW, my bad. According to Bosch EV app, Ionity shows as 135kW...

ELM327

McGiver wrote: »

Bet? I say, it won't or it will be a close to 50% at most :cool:

Leaf will sell well, I'd say they'll keep at least 30% of the market share. Zoe will sell too. I can't see 50kW+ cars to grow so quickly to offset a) existing fleet, b) imports and c) <50kW capable sales.

€10 charity bet?
Defined as

"I am saying end of the year stats to show as the BEV fleet (not including HEV/PHEV) will be 50% +1 or higher, capable of charging at >50kW."
If that condition is met, you must donate 10€ to a charity of my choosing.
If that condition is not met, I must donate 10€ to a charity of your choosing.
The donator shall provide proof online of said donation.

McGiver

ELM327 wrote: »

€10 charity bet?
Defined as

"I am saying end of the year stats to show as the BEV fleet (not including HEV/PHEV) will be 50% +1 or higher, capable of charging at >50kW."
If that condition is met, you must donate 10€ to a charity of my choosing.
If that condition is not met, I must donate 10€ to a charity of your choosing.
The donator shall provide proof online of said donation.

I'm in, I'll just expand it

"I am saying by 31 December 2020 stats to show as the BEV fleet (not including HEV/PHEV) will be 50% +1 or higher, capable of charging at >50kW."
If that condition is met, you must donate 10€ to a charity of my choosing.
If that condition is not met, I must donate 10€ to a charity of your choosing.
The donator shall provide proof online of said donation.

Marlow

McGiver wrote: »

It's 3% of all BEVs, that's what I meant. Small blip in large scale of things.

How do you arrive at 3% ? Nearly 8% of all BEVs sold in Ireland last year are Tesla. It's the third most sold BEV in Ireland. That's not niche. And they all are capable of charging at over 100kW.

liamog wrote: »

The CCS standard doesn't change by country. (well OK North America uses a different plug design, but you get my point)

Erh ? I think you're confused. You linked an article talking about upgrading to liquid cooled chargers, which was in relation to Denmark. Yet you said Norway and there was nothing about Norway in there.

/M

McGiver

Marlow wrote: »

How do you arrive at 3% ? Nearly 8% of all BEVs sold in Ireland last year are Tesla. It's the third most sold BEV in Ireland. That's not niche.

There are about 10k BEVs in Ireland at the moment.

Tesla M3,S & X sales in 19 & 18 are 270 combined.

I have no data on imports and pre 2018 S & X sales, but I estimate 300 Teslas total. Even if I assume it's 400 total then it's 4%.

Marlow

McGiver wrote: »

Zoe will sell too.

262 Zoe sold last year. That's all. And Renault sold less BEV overall than Tesla.

The only two things that sold over thousand units were Leaf and Kona EV.

Also .. you're mixing and matching figures there. Either go with last year only .. or go with all cars on the road (which you can't obtain figures for easy).

So 8% is the realistic figure atm. And an increase of sales by over 100% for Tesla year on year.

/M

liamog

Erh ? I think you're confused. You linked an article talking about upgrading to liquid cooled chargers, which was in relation to Denmark. Yet you said Norway and there was nothing about Norway in there.

/M

Does it really matter, the point is that Ionity had to upgrade the cables on some of their Tritium based chargers as the originals were only capable of 200A due to the lack of liquid-cooled cable.

Again, I feel like you don't understand that CCS is an international standard, and not country specific.

Marlow

McGiver wrote: »

I have no data on imports and pre 2018 S & X sales, but I estimate 300 Teslas total. Even if I assume it's 400 total then it's 4%.

270 Tesla sold in Ireland 2019
120 Tesla sold in Ireland 2018

That's 390 cars sold new directly from Tesla in 2019 and 2018 excluding imports.

You're totally underestimating figures there. It's over 400 in the country.

/M

Marlow

liamog wrote: »

Does it really matter

Yes. It matters. Because it's ignorant and incorrect.

liamog wrote: »

Again, I feel like you don't understand that CCS is an international standard, and not country specific.

At what point did I discuss the CCS standard ? Or state, that there was differences between countries ? I mean .. go back and read my post.

I didn't. I don't even know where you get that idea from.

/M

McGiver

Marlow wrote: »

270 Tesla sold in Ireland 2019
120 Tesla sold in Ireland 2018

That's 390 cars sold new directly from Tesla in 2019 and 2018 excluding imports.

You're totally underestimating figures there. It's over 400 in the country.

/M

Totally? Don't think it's more than 500 for sure. I said I'd estimated imports.

The key message is that it's a single digit %, whether it's 3 or 5% is irrelevant, that's within statistical margin of error.

Marlow

McGiver wrote: »

Totally? Don't think it's more than 500 for sure. I said I'd estimated imports.

The key message is that it's a single digit %, whether it's 3 or 5% is irrelevant, that's within statistical margin of error.

453 Tesla sold from new in Ireland from 2015 to 2019 so far. That excludes imports.

Lots of Teslas imported from the UK, as they weren't available here. Model S launched 2012, so there's 3 years before that, where you had to import them.

So if their sales increase, like they've done in previous years, year on year, it'll be double digit percentage marketshare this year. Either way, it's not what you'd call niche. Cars sold in sub 100 in that segment maybe. But this isn't one of them.

/M

liamog

Marlow wrote: »

Yes. It matters. Because it's ignorant and incorrect.

At what point did I discuss the CCS standard ? Or state, that there was differences between countries ? I mean .. go back and read my post.

I didn't. I don't even know where you get that idea from.

/M

Never attribute to malice, that which can be explained by incompetence.
Perhaps it was a simple mistake, based on the fact I was aware that Ionity had deployed chargers with non-liquid cooled cables and later replaced them. I know this because of Bjorn Nyland who did videos about it.

Here's the video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cH1gXGwVI9M&t=90s
I prefer to provide sources for info, instead of the random 'facts' most people like to provide.

I interpreted your different country statement as, it was irrelevant that another country needed liquid cooled cables, mis understanding explained.

Marlow

liamog wrote: »

I prefer to provide sources for info, instead of the random 'facts' most people like to provide.

Which is how it should be.

liamog wrote: »

I interpreted your different country statement as, it was irrelevant that another country needed liquid cooled cables, mis understanding explained.

Thanks.

/M

KCross

McGiver wrote: »

I'm in, I'll just expand it

"I am saying by 31 December 2020 stats to show as the BEV fleet (not including HEV/PHEV) will be 50% +1 or higher, capable of charging at >50kW."
If that condition is met, you must donate 10€ to a charity of my choosing.
If that condition is not met, I must donate 10€ to a charity of your choosing.
The donator shall provide proof online of said donation.

Ye will need to agree what the source of truth is for those stats as I'd say it could be a tight call!

beepbeep gives SIMI figures which are not sales figures but registrations.

government figures (from CSO) use cars taxed, so a better representation of sales and there is usually a few hundred in the difference between the two sources!

It will all hinge on Tesla Model 3 deliveries as there will only be a few hundred 1st edition ID.3's and the others (e208, Corsa-e, Mini etc) dont look like they will have big numbers this year either. Maybe KonaEV and eNiro will up their numbers.

Marlow

KCross wrote: »

beepbeep gives SIMI figures which are not sales figures but registrations.

I wasn't aware of that. So that includes imports then ? Over 450 Tesla S/X/3 in Ireland so. And Tesla Model 3 ranks the 5th most sold BEV last year. Tesla overall 3rd.

KCross wrote: »

It will all hinge on Tesla Model 3 deliveries as there will only be a few hundred 1st edition ID.3's and the others (e208, Corsa-e, Mini etc) dont look like they will have big numbers this year either. Maybe KonaEV and eNiro will up their numbers.

Kona EV was the same amount of registrations last year as Leafs. 1086 units. That's based on beepbeep.

/M

liamog

That's going to be hard to measure the Leaf 62 is capable of charging at higher than 50kW too, its just impossible to find a fast CHAdeMO charger.

ELM327

liamog wrote: »

That's going to be hard to measure the Leaf 62 is capable of charging at higher than 50kW too, its just impossible to find a fast CHAdeMO charger.

For the purposes of the wager above I would count all leafs as being maxed out at 45-50kW

Even if you find the rocking horse poop that is a >62.5kW chademo plug, the leaf will throttle it anyway

innrain

McGiver wrote: »

Bet? I say, it won't or it will be a close to 50% at most :cool:

Leaf will sell well, I'd say they'll keep at least 30% of the market share. Zoe will sell too. I can't see 50kW+ cars to grow so quickly to offset a) existing fleet, b) imports and c) &lt;50kW capable sales.

I think you're poised to loose the bet. Leaf is loosing market share even though it is on first place as units sold sharing the place with Kona.
In 2018 Leaf had 63.99 % of BEV while in 2019 it dropped to 31.53% . So it is very close to your predicted 30% for 2020 which will be an interesting year for the BEV in general.

Also, in 2019 50kW+ capable new cars sold are in total 1577, without counting Ioniq as strangely enough Ioniq new model dropped the charging speed and I don't know how manny 28kWh models were sold;


1577 /3444 gives 45.79%. So close...

McGiver

ELM327 wrote: »

For the purposes of the wager above I would count all leafs as being maxed out at 45-50kW

Even if you find the rocking horse poop that is a >62.5kW chademo plug, the leaf will throttle it anyway

Yep, I agree. L62 should be counted to the <50 kW bracket.

McGiver

Marlow wrote: »

I wasn't aware of that. So that includes imports then ? Over 450 Tesla S/X/3 in Ireland so.

For all years including 19?
So add M3s and we've Tesla numbers?
That would be 640. 6% then.

McGiver

McGiver wrote: »

Sorry, I said 125kW, my bad. According to Bosch EV app, Ionity shows as 135kW...

By the way, ZapMap shows Ionity as 350kW, but I'd trust Bosch app more with the 135kW. It's not 350kW capable as far as I know.
This is maybe for the Ionity thread.

unkel

McGiver wrote: »

By the way, ZapMap shows Ionity as 350kW, but I'd trust Bosch app more with the 135kW. It's not 350kW capable as far as I know.
This is maybe for the Ionity thread.

Anyone with a Tesla Model 3 that's reasonably empty (<50% SOC or so) will be able to quickly prove or disprove this. If it can take a good bit over 175kW, it means it's a 350kW charger

ELM327

unkel wrote: »

Anyone with a Tesla Model 3 that's reasonably empty (<50% SOC or so) will be able to quickly prove or disprove this. If it can take a good bit over 175kW, it means it's a 350kW charger

They can deliver max 190kW to model 3 due to 500a charger limitation.

unkel

Aye. Model 3 can take 666A :cool:

But even at just 190kW, it would prove the charger is a 350kW (liquid cooled cable) Ionity CCS2 charger