Brexit discussion thread XI (Please read OP before posting)

Strazdas

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

I think watching Question Time is like engaging in a mild form of self-harm at this stage.

They have an odd view of democracy. They seem to think it would be profoundly undemocratic for the people to overrule the people.

Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

It's not even certain Corbyn could get a WA through parliament. The Labour Leave MPs could rebel and vote the deal down.

Yeah, all depends i guess on what kind of balance there will be, as we are merely discussing a hypothetical situation in which corbyn has pulled off an unlikely triumph! Fair few of those lexiters are stepping down after this parliament anyway, some more probably lose their seats to be presumably replaced by new mps in other more pro-remain areas. Start of a parliament life anyway, dont see why any mp would feel pressure notto back it.

bilston

Headshot wrote: »

I think this will damage the DUP so much in the eyes of NI Voters, it could be such a huge set back that they'd never be in power for along time again

God I would be over the moon

Lucidtalk have a poll out on Sunday about attitudes towards this deal in NI. It will be interesting to see what Unionism thinks. I haven't much support for it at all amongst Unionists. But as ever it may be down to a loud minority. However when even neutral political commentators such as Jon Tongue describe it as an even bigger shift towards a United Ireland than the Anglo Irish Agreement then I suspect that most Unionists will take a fair bit of persuading that this deal.is a good thing which if that's the case will surely just boost the DUP vote.

But again let's wait and see.

Capt'n Midnight

hotmail.com wrote: »

This isn't true.

They viewed their neighbours with scorn for having them got involved in two world wars. If it weren't for their cultural cousins, America, Britain was screwed. It wasn't Europe that saved Britain in the wars, it was America.

The US and UK fought from Norway to France and Germany and Italy and North Africa and Greece and Crete.

But 90% of German Army casualties were on the Eastern Front. The Russians had a bigger population, more space. The were more flexible they moved all the factories. Having US supplies helped. The Germans didn't capture Moscow. Napoleon did and still lost.

Brexit is such a mess I don't even know which analogy to use.

- comparing the Germans vs Soviet Union to UK vs EU. Fritz Todt knew the war was lost in 1941 and tried to get Hitler to make peace. Pressing on split and impoverished Germany in 1945. Except there won't be any Marshall Aid for the UK.

- the Russians are powerful and pulling strings on Brexit.

- the UK didn't win a major WWII land battle without US assistance after El Alamein. The one way traffic of patents and technology from the UK during and after WII ( penicillin, jet engine, radar ) show just how one way the "special relationship" is.

FrancieBrady

bilston wrote: »

Lucidtalk have a poll out on Sunday about attitudes towards this deal in NI. It will be interesting to see what Unionism thinks. I haven't much support for it at all amongst Unionists. But as ever it may be down to a loud minority. However when even neutral political commentators such as Jon Tongue describe it as an even bigger shift towards a United Ireland than the Anglo Irish Agreement then I suspect that most Unionists will take a fair bit of persuading that this deal.is a good thing which if that's the case will surely just boost the DUP vote.

But again let's wait and see.

I think the DUP vote will hold or strengthen until the real effects of Brexit kick in. The 'siege' mentality will be ramped up. UUP seem to be making no effort to offer a credible alternative, probably petrified of being seen to undermine the Union...which is kinda why they fell from grace to begin with.

devnull

hotmail.com wrote: »

Well I'm glad you admit you don't know what influence the campaigning had.

Nobody knows for sure exactly what effect it had but any breach of integrity into a contest casts into doubt the integrity of the result, which I illustrated in the example that I gave in my last post. Just as I cannot say it certainly results in leave winning, you cannot say that it certainly didn't, at the end of the day both of us are just airing our opinions.

Still however the one proven fact is that the side that cheated and broke the law won and that casts doubt on the integrity of the result and that cannot be undone as to how much it effected the result we will never know for sure, but it did to some degree and therefore there will always be a doubt there.

Now if we can actually discuss real matters concerning Brexit without mentioning personal circumstances and weird analogies.

You are the one who stated that I needed to find out about British people's attitude to Europe and when I illustrate that I know about these things and back my point up using a coherent argument and reasons for it, you're essentially telling me off for merely responding to your point? That's not debate, it's deflection.

Varta

GM228 wrote: »

Many saw through it, many didn't, but where have I given the notion I look down on those who were not wise enough to see through it?





It was more of a light hearted joke as I already stated, but where are these 100s of years of anti European feelings coming from, the leave side capitalized on Euroscepticism or Europhobia feelings which are a more modern and more specific phenomenon intrinsically linked to the EU.

William of Orange, Napolean, perhaps WW1 - surely those events are not considered to have created long lasting anti European feelings?

Didn't get the joke. Fair enough. It's difficult to pinpoint where the ainti-euro feelings come from, perhaps because it's difficult to understand in 2019. However, feelings last a long time in a nation's psyche. The French and the English have a long history. But I think it probably comes down to empire and empire rivalry. The Europeans have mostly shaken off their feelings of imperialism, whereas the British have yet to come to terms with it and to some extent still seem to view the Europeans as rivals. I suppose the reasons are obscure but the attitudes are obvious.

Topgear on Dave

Iv got to admire this young lady brexiteers confidence on question time talking about Nissan and car manufacturing.

The business is fast moving JIT manufacturing and cut throat.

Edit: Kate Andrews of the IEA

Joe_ Public

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The US and UK fought from Norway to France and Germany and Italy and North Africa and Greece and Crete.

But 90% of German Army casualties were on the Eastern Front. The Russians had a bigger population, more space. The were more flexible they moved all the factories. Having US supplies helped. The Germans didn't capture Moscow. Napoleon did and still lost.

Brexit is such a mess I don't even know which analogy to use.

- comparing the Germans vs Soviet Union to UK vs EU. Fritz Todt knew the war was lost in 1941 and tried to get Hitler to make peace. Pressing on split and impoverished Germany in 1945. Except there won't be any Marshall Aid for the UK.

- the Russians are powerful and pulling strings on Brexit.

- the UK didn't win a major WWII land battle without US assistance after El Alamein. The one way traffic of patents and technology from the UK during and after WII ( penicillin, jet engine, radar ) show just how one way the "special relationship" is.

It may or may not be relevant that the two most referenced military episodes in the context of brexit are Dunkirk and the dam busters, one that should have been a humiliating defeat (only germans curiously failed to turn the screw) and the other an overblowm operation that killed close to 20,000 civilians. I heard it said once that people who list the dam busters as their favourite film are very likely to be hard brexiteers while those who were actually in the dam busters, as in flew the mission, would - had they lived - be staunch remainers. Strong grain of truth in that i reckon.

Varta

Joe_ Public wrote: »

It may or may not be relevant that the two most referenced military episodes in the context of brexit are Dunkirk and the dam busters, one that should have been a humiliating defeat (only germans curiously failed to turn the screw) and the other an overblowm operation that killed close to 20,000 civilians. I heard it said once that people who list the dam busters as their favourite film are very likely to be hard brexiteers while those who were actually in the dam busters, as in flew the mission, would - had they lived - be staunch remainers. Strong grain of truth in that i reckon.

How can anyone know what way dead people would have voted?

Joe_ Public

Varta wrote: »

How can anyone know what way dead people would have voted?

Its just an extrapolation based on the pattern of war veterans who have been quite vocal in their opposition to brexit. A very common theme, for instance, at the 75th commemoration of the beach landings a few months back. I agree with it as a general point anyway, of course the specific truth or otherwise cant be known.

Junkyard Tom

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Edit: Kate Andrews of the IEA

She's literally paid to disseminate pro-capitalist propaganda and nobody ever says it to her. It'd be interesting to know who in the BBC makes the decision to have her on and what their justification is considering that the BBC is supposed to be a public service.

Shelga

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Iv got to admire this young lady brexiteers confidence on question time talking about Nissan and car manufacturing.

The business is fast moving JIT manufacturing and cut throat.

Edit: Kate Andrews of the IEA

Don’t you know that a dodgily-funded Tory mouthpiece knows more about running Nissan than the chairman of Nissan? That it was simply not all down to Brexit when he said they will have to pull out of the UK due to tariffs imposed by Brexit?

I don’t know why I watch it anymore either, I only find myself wishing bad things on the UK and that’s not a nice way to be. At this stage though, I will have less than zero sympathy if big car manufacturers pull out.

GM228

Well, according to Junker "bull****" was responsible for Brexit.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-brexit-news-latest-eu-juncker-referendum-campaign-a9169936.html%3famp

He has accused Johnson of telling lies during the referendum.

Junker wrote:

They were saying things, some of them – lying. Telling the people things which have nothing to do with our day by day reality

Junker wrote:

David Cameron asked me not to intervene in the referendum campaign because he said the European Commission is even less popular on the islands than on the continent ... That was a major mistake: I should have intervened, because nobody was denying, contesting the lies Boris Johnson and others were spreading around.

Longer video here:-

https://www.google.com/amp/s/metro.co.uk/2019/10/24/juncker-calls-boris-johnson-a-liar-in-fiery-speech-slating-brexit-bullsht-10979258/amp/

Junker wrote:

If for 46 years you are told day after day, and you are reading in your papers, that the place of the British is not really in Europe, but that they are there for economic and internal market reasons, and all the rest – it’s nonsense, bull****, as they are saying in the European parliament – don’t be surprised if voters are asked to give their impression, some of them, a small majority but nevertheless a clear majority, is voting like a majority of the British sovereign people is voting

lawred2

devnull wrote: »

The trouble is that if these things are not respected then you are on a slippery slope where anyone does whatever they like and it is in that kind of environment that would allow fascist dictators to flourish and history shows us that when they have the ability to do so, some truly awful actions have followed.

Unfortunately sometimes when people are used to the way things are for so long, they forget the lessons that their ancestors have learnt in the past, because they think that history will not repeat itself. These things are there for a reason and the reasons are to safeguard people against things that could be abused.

I think you're wrong there. Fascism is only something that happens in mainland Europe.

MrMusician18

No more than the Brits, I see we are still fighting the 2016 referendum here...

Letwin_Larry

MrMusician18 wrote: »

No more than the Brits, I see we are still fighting the 2016 referendum here...

i have to confess i am totally sick of Brexit. After 3 years of this $hite nothing is even close to being resolved.

the news gives us the same horse manure every night.

"this is going to be the most pivitol week, this is set to be the week, this week is about to be the most telling, this week's vote will show us, blah blah blah .... "

it's like playing golf in a bog.

Strazdas

MrMusician18 wrote: »

No more than the Brits, I see we are still fighting the 2016 referendum here...

Yes, but not so much the question of whether it is right or wrong for the UK to leave the EU.

Most Brexit critics believe the holding of the referendum and the referendum campaign was an utter shambles and those public figures defending the process as 100% legitimate are either liars or crooks.

Jamiekelly

Topgear on Dave wrote: »

Iv got to admire this young lady brexiteers confidence on question time talking about Nissan and car manufacturing.

The business is fast moving JIT manufacturing and cut throat.

Edit: Kate Andrews of the IEA

Good to know the right wing think tanks have a policy of transfers for employees looking to add another acronym to their CV's. Kate Andrews used to be a spokeswoman for the Taxpayers Alliance. She must have been a little uncomfortable when pundits regularly asked the TA to disclose their funding sources during any debates. Kind of hard to convince people your fighting for their rights as taxpayers when the Koch Brothers in the USA are your primary wage payers. The Institute of Economic Affairs is at least more up front about being a private lobby group and aren't hiding behind the "Taxpayers".

Taken from Wikipedia:
The IEA supports privatising the National Health Service (NHS); campaigns against controls on junk food; attacks trades unions; and defends zero-hour contracts, unpaid internships and tax havens.

Kate Andrews has also been on Sky News multiple times often criticising Ireland for being a tax haven and saying that privatizing certain parts of the NHS would only strenghten it in the long term :rolleyes:

fash

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It does not get any simpler than that. To me that means they leave all the institutions of the EU.
.

I entirely fail to see how this follows considering that the leave campaign was predicated on comparisons with Norway and Switzerland"s relationship with the EU, turning back the clock to the EEC, and saying "only a madman would think of leaving (any particular beneficial EU institution being discussed at that time)".
Frankly I don't believe it is possibly arguable that the vast majority of the UK did not vote to remain within the single market and customs union given that 48% most certainly did and a large amount of the others also intended to.

Tell me how

Jamiekelly wrote: »

Good to know the right wing think tanks have a policy of transfers for employees looking to add another acronym to their CV's. Kate Andrews used to be a spokeswoman for the Taxpayers Alliance. She must have been a little uncomfortable when pundits regularly asked the TA to disclose their funding sources during any debates. Kind of hard to convince people your fighting for their rights as taxpayers when the Koch Brothers in the USA are your primary wage payers. The Institute of Economic Affairs is at least more up front about being a private lobby group and aren't hiding behind the "Taxpayers".

Taken from Wikipedia:
The IEA supports privatising the National Health Service (NHS); campaigns against controls on junk food; attacks trades unions; and defends zero-hour contracts, unpaid internships and tax havens.

Kate Andrews has also been on Sky News multiple times often criticising Ireland for being a tax haven and saying that privatizing certain parts of the NHS would only strenghten it in the long term :rolleyes:

Kate is also a fan of not disclosing the source of the IEA's funding, although one of which has been revealed to be BP.
Here they are languishing within the Highly Opaque category.

This is where they rank in terms of transparency.

Zubeneschamali

Danzy wrote: »

How long can this stalemate go on?

25 years or so, given how long Norway was applying to join, or Sweden has taken to adopt the Euro.

murphaph

hotmail.com wrote: »

Modern Euro scepticism came about in the 1960s and 70s (pushed by the Left by and large at first) , but anti European attitudes started long before a notion of a European Union.

Then why did the electorate vote to join (stay in) the EEC in 1972? If the UK was anti Europe going back centuries as you contend, this would not have been the case. You're talking rubbish.

Zubeneschamali

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

There were people on this thread only a few days ago rubbishing the idea that there might be unrest if Brexit doesn't happen.

Hopefully that poll opens some eyes.

Ha ha! No.

The poll doesn't ask if pensioners are going to attack MPs or remainers, it just asks if they think violence would be a price worth paying for Brexit, consistent with Major Harumph Blimp types saying serve's 'em right.

And I think it is quite likely that peaceful Remain protestors will be attacked an injured at some point by Leave thugs, and if I were a UK citizen I would tell the pollsters that it would be worth it if the protests achieved a Remain result.

So there is really nothing in that poll that says any of the people polled would actually commit any violence at all.

Zubeneschamali

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Impossible to overestimate the strength of feeling if the result was overturned.

A lot of people would be very frustrated and angry.

Not only is it possible to overestimate it, it is routine. Indeed, you just did it. The frustrated and angry brigade will write to the Telegraph, not overthrow the Government.


If Brexit is stopped, things will simply go on as they are, unchanged. There will be no trigger for violence.


Now, if Brexit goes ahead, that will be different. Food shortages are exactly the sort of thing that triggers riots. Mass factory closures. Fuel rationing. Avoidable deaths in hospitals.

Zubeneschamali

Strazdas wrote: »

"We won, you lost, the decision is final and you can never vote on this again, so suck it up, you losers".

"Also, we don't like the result of the 2017 vote and demand an early election"

Kermit.de.frog

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Now, if Brexit goes ahead, that will be different. Food shortages are exactly the sort of thing that triggers riots. Mass factory closures. Fuel rationing. Avoidable deaths in hospitals.

All complete bs.

So you are saying the UK is trapped in the EU?

We are all trapped in the EU because if we leave these terrible things will happen to us?

The UK will leave. The EU will last a few years longer but I think ultimately it is a failed experiment.

We will go back to sovereignty over our affairs and the EU will be the much looser economic community we first joined. Transitioning from the euro will be difficult but Ireland is pretty well placed as is Germany. Other countries it will hit them a little harder but they'll survive. We all move on.

That is for the best - the alternative does not bear thinking about.

gmisk

dfx- wrote: »

What choice do Unionists have? UUP who are on the floor or DUP. Arlene could waste hundreds of millions of taxpayers money and Stormont collapse and still get a substantial number of votes.

Vote for the alliance?
It's what I would be doing in their position

Zubeneschamali

hotmail.com wrote: »

I'm commenting on the underlying anti European sentiment in Britain.

Since Britain is in Europe, I am not sure what anti-European sentiment would even mean.

Zubeneschamali

hotmail.com wrote: »

Oh dear god. Move on.

No. Someday there will be a sworn inquiry into this and folks will be named and shamed. Brexit will stick to them like Iraq sticks to Blair.