Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Water John

Lb base is not evenly split. AFAIK it's 3 or 4:1 in favour of Remain.
Problem is Corbyn sees being outside the EU as the only way he can fully implement he policies and ideology, eg renationalisation.

MrMusician18

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

To be fair the moment Corbyn arrived on the scene the British media to the last paper sent for him relentlessly and haven’t stopped since. The establishment in all its forms are determined to take him down mainly because his policies threaten they’re cushty set up and way things work.

And this was before brexit turned up.

And now they're scraping the bottom of the barrel, leaking "civil service concerns" about his health and capacity.

These people will stop at almost nothing to keep him out of No. 10.

If the Tories were going to comfortably return a majority of +40 seats then the two leadership candidates wouldn't be absolutely categorically ruling out an election.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

No, it's because most people don't agree with his political ideology. So they won't vote for him. And because he comes across as weak and incompetent.

In fairness, he did perform admirably in the 2017 TV debates. His ambiguity on Brexit is causing him problems with both camps of his support base. The Brexiters might flock to the prosaically-named Brexit party while enthusiastic remainers might vote Lib Dem or Green if they're particularly keen on climate change-focused Socialism.

Ultimately, Labour needs to show leadership to its voters. Incompetently pandering to it's two factions who want mutually exclusive things is an endeavour which will result only in failure. Showing leadership is easier said than done but with the Conservatives in such disarray and the Article 50 deadline looming, it needs to be done sooner rather than later.

J Mysterio

New Waterford - Rotterdam shipping route announced.
It runs Rotterdam - Liverpool - Waterford and then Waterford - Rotterdam direct.
Happy with the diversification of our options.

MrMusician18

Water John wrote: »

Lb base is not evenly split. AFAIK it's 3 or 4:1 in favour of Remain.
Problem is Corbyn sees being outside the EU as the only way he can fully implement he policies and ideology, eg renationalisation.

No, the political calculation was that the remainers would stay with Labour if they could stay on the fence, holding out the hope of backing remain sometime in the future. If labour backed leave then the 25% that keeps the marginals in seats would defect to UKIP/Brexit Party handing the seat to Con/Lib depending on the marginal. Labour clearly believed that for leave voters, leaving is the most serious issue of all and will desert the party over it, while remainers are softer.

What is happening now, as the crunch comes, is that the remain vote is hardening.

Professor Moriarty

MrMusician18 wrote: »

And now they're scraping the bottom of the barrel, leaking "civil service concerns" about his health and capacity.

These people will stop at almost nothing to keep him out of No. 10.

If the Tories were going to comfortably return a majority of +40 seats then the two leadership candidates wouldn't be absolutely categorically ruling out an election.

Well, the latest poll says as much. If Johnson thought that a snap election would get a 40 seat majority, he would go for it in the morning. I wouldn't discount this at all, especially as Corbyn and Labour are in disarray.

MrMusician18

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Well, the latest poll says as much. If Johnson thought that a snap election would get a 40 seat majority, he would go for it in the morning. I wouldn't discount this at all, especially as Corbyn and Labour are in disarray.

You said the Tories would get a 40 seat majority if there was an immediate election. So why are both candidates ruling out an election until 2022?

Why don't the candidates believe the polls?

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

In fairness, he did perform admirably in the 2017 TV debates. His ambiguity on Brexit is causing him problems with both camps of his support base. The Brexiters might flock to the prosaically-named Brexit party while enthusiastic remainers might vote Lib Dem or Green if they're particularly keen on climate change-focused Socialism.

Ultimately, Labour needs to show leadership to its voters. Incompetently pandering to it's two factions who want mutually exclusive things is an endeavour which will result only in failure. Showing leadership is easier said than done but with the Conservatives in such disarray and the Article 50 deadline looming, it needs to be done sooner rather than later.

He performed admirably in the debates because May literally didn't turn up. A party can't show leadership when its leader can't show leadership. Labour's approval rating is the worst since the crash in 2009 and this is in the context of a terrible Tory government. His approval rating has sank to 17%. How would Labour be doing under Starmer? Watson? Thornberry? Infinitely better is the answer.

Professor Moriarty

MrMusician18 wrote: »

You said the Tories would get a 40 seat majority if there was an immediate election. So why are both candidates ruling out an election until 2022?

Why don't the candidates believe the polls?

I'm sure they monitor the polls very closely and factor them into their thinking. You are also forgetting that they have yet to be elected as Tory leader - their campaigning is very much based on what Tory party members want until they are elected. If Johnson believes that he can get a majority with the 'Boris bounce' against a useless Corbyn, he will go for it immediately.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

He performed admirably in the debates because May literally didn't turn up. A party can't show leadership when its leader can't show leadership. Labour's approval rating is the worst since the crash in 2009 and this is in the context of a terrible Tory government. His approval rating has sank to 17%. How would Labour be doing under Starmer? Watson? Thornberry? Infinitely better is the answer.

That's just how TV debates work here now. We can add it to the list of things to thank Cameron for. Yeah, of course Starmer or Watson or Thornberry would be doing a better job but we've not got that situation unfortunately.

Professor Moriarty

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Well how exactly do you take a position on brexit when your base is pretty evenly split (last i was aware) between leave and remain? Probably covering his own behind by not alienating either side by taking a position (up until today anyways) and infuriated his entire party and base by not taking a position.
I hear nothing but conflicting reports about him. He’s actually a leaver/ now he’s advocating a second referendum. There’s always coverage about him and very little from him.

I totally agree with you. However leadership means taking positions and decisions. He does neither.

MrMusician18

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I'm sure they monitor the polls very closely and factor them into their thinking. You are also forgetting that they have yet to be elected as Tory leader - their campaigning is very much based on what Tory party members want until they are elected. If Johnson believes that he can get a majority with the 'Boris bounce' against a useless Corbyn, he will go for it immediately.

He had said he won't. He has told his MPs he won't and he had told his membership he won't. And they are polling at+40 seats at the moment. Since he is unequivocally not backing it, (not even being politically evasive) the logical conclusion is that he doesn't believe he can win a majority.

There won't be an election unless there is absolutely no other way out of the constitutional crisis they've put themselves in, because once Corbyn gets the mandated fair hearing in the media that the law requires, a lot of people find that they like what they hear.

Stop moaning ffs

Just to add, if he ever got to be PM, would nationalising everything be the worst thing in the world?
Britain began its journey to a broken unequal society when thatcher privatised everything and set the middle and poorer classes to drift off.
Taking it all back from private interests wouldn’t be a bad move I reckon

Professor Moriarty

MrMusician18 wrote: »

He had said he won't. He has told his MPs he won't and he had told his membership he won't. And they are polling at+40 seats at the moment. Since he is unequivocally not backing it, (not even being politically evasive) the logical conclusion is that he doesn't believe he can win a majority.

There won't be an election unless there is absolutely no other way out of the constitutional crisis they've put themselves in, because once Corbyn gets the mandated fair hearing in the media that the law requires, a lot of people find that they like what they hear.

Do you actually believe what Johnson says? I don't. I reiterate, he is presently campaigning to be elected as Tory leader PM so he's going to say whatever they want to hear. He will go for an election if/when it suits him.

Johnson, even though he is a liar, has charisma and is the master of one-liners That matters in debates. Corbyn debated against himself in the last election and still managed to lose. He is an honest man with integrity. Of that, there is no doubt. But his polices, his personality, his dithering and his dissembling are an anathema to the ordinary voter - which is why his approval ratings are consistently dire.

kunst nugget

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Just to add, if he ever got to be PM, would nationalising everything be the worst thing in the world?
Britain began its journey to a broken unequal society when thatcher privatised everything and set the middle and poorer classes to drift off.
Taking it all back from private interests wouldn’t be a bad move I reckon

Considering the UK finances were in such a state in the mid-seventies that they requested the largest loan ever from the IMF at the time and the strikes during the winter of discontent that nearly crippled the economy, I think people are looking at Pre-Thatcherite Britain with rose-tinted glasses.

Not trying to paint the woman as a saint here - she was a hateful bint.

Stop moaning ffs

kunst nugget wrote: »

Considering the UK finances were in such a state in the mid-seventies that they requested the largest loan ever from the IMF at the time and the strikes during the winter of discontent that nearly crippled the economy, I think people are looking at Pre-Thatcherite Britain with rose-tinted glasses.

Not trying to paint the woman as a saint here - she was a hateful bint.

I was just a kid during that time but ‘enemy of the people’ was my understanding of it even then. She was a piece of work and not a good one.

kunst nugget

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

I was just a kid during that time but ‘enemy of the people’ was my understanding of it even then. She was a piece of work and not a good one.

I was a kid at the time as well and often wondered why they didn't go for Kinnock instead of constantly voting back in that battle-axe but then I didn't have to live through the UK in the seventies.

Strazdas

Lackadaisical wrote: »

Well according to the London based financial media, we've accepted a border:

https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1148541590086049792?s=09

You can see exactly why the government didn't want to be too accomodating on this. The rhetoric is already moving towards a border is accepted and inevitable.

Lisa O'Carroll of the Guardian is disputing the Bloomberg story :

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1148569336979886085

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

I totally agree with you. However leadership means taking positions and decisions. He does neither.

Exactly. He needs to formulate a position for the party that can command some sort of broad support and then he needs to sell it. The incessant prevaricating is just going to cause them to haemhorrage support which may not necessarily return if the Lib Dems, Greens and the Brexit party are able to keep their new supporters which seems plausible given that they are not hobbled by the same problem. Their bases are largely homogeneous by comparison with the big two.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Exactly. He needs to formulate a position for the party that can command some sort of broad support and then he needs to sell it. The incessant prevaricating is just going to cause them to haemhorrage support which may not necessarily return if the Lib Dems, Greens and the Brexit party are able to keep their new supporters which seems plausible given that they are not hobbled by the same problem. Their bases are largely homogeneous by comparison with the big two.

Current polling trends indicate that the Brexit Party will gain little traction against a Johnson led Tory party in a GE. So Johnson will largely have the right to himself. As you say, the problem for Labour is that they are trying to be a broad church. That's fine in a two horse race as things have been for many decades but Brexit dominates now and has changed the political landscape.

Many soft Left voters and remainers will continue to drift away to the Lib Dems and the Greens. As will some MPs. As somebody posted earlier, it's much too late for Corbyn to salvage those votes. My problem with Corbyn is that his incompetence may well have opened the door to a Hard Brexit as the pro EU side is now split between Lab, Lib Dems and Greens.

ancapailldorcha

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Current polling trends indicate that the Brexit Party will gain little traction against a Johnson led Tory party in a GE. So Johnson will largely have the right to himself. As you say, the problem for Labour is that they are trying to be a broad church. That's fine in a two horse race as things have been for many decades but Brexit dominates now and has changed the political landscape.

Johnson's other problem is that Tory Whigs (once an oxymoron) are quite likely to defect to the Lib Dems. Johnson is toxic for a lot of people, especially younger Tories. If he's in better shape than Corbyn, the difference will be negligible.

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Many soft Left voters and remainers will continue to drift away to the Lib Dems and the Greens. As will some MPs. As somebody posted earlier, it's much too late for Corbyn to salvage those votes. My problem with Corbyn is that his incompetence may well have opened the door to a Hard Brexit as the pro EU side is now split between Lab, Lib Dems and Greens.

If Corbyn really pushes a second referendum with a hint of populism, he might have a chance. However, there's the very high likelihood that he'd alienate a lot of support this way. It's tricky but he needs to stop being silent because his base is divided and actually address the problem.

BluePlanet

Strazdas wrote: »

Lisa O'Carroll of the Guardian is disputing the Bloomberg story :

https://twitter.com/lisaocarroll/status/1148569336979886085

Maybe not in the contingency plan today, but it will have to be planned for in near future.

Zubeneschamali

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

To be fair the moment Corbyn arrived on the scene the British media to the last paper sent for him relentlessly and haven’t stopped since. The establishment in all its forms are determined to take him down mainly because his policies threaten they’re cushty set up and way things work.

10 of the last 13 PMs have attended Oxford. The top civil servants, editors at the newspapers, chiefs at the BBC, lawyers, on and on - the whole elite of the UK is run by old boys from Eton and Harrow, alumni of Oxford and Cambridge.


These people are always going to be relentlessly opposed to Corbyn, who is not at all the thing.

Stop moaning ffs

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

10 of the last 13 PMs have attended Oxford. The top civil servants, editors at the newspapers, chiefs at the BBC, lawyers, on and on - the whole elite of the UK is run by old boys from Eton and Harrow, alumni of Oxford and Cambridge.


These people are always going to be relentlessly opposed to Corbyn, who is not at all the thing.

When I first became aware of him I knew something stank cos even the guardian were knives out for him.

It reeks of old boy network for sure. Great term for it too well played.

Professor Moriarty

ancapailldorcha wrote: »

Johnson's other problem is that Tory Whigs (once an oxymoron) are quite likely to defect to the Lib Dems. Johnson is toxic for a lot of people, especially younger Tories. If he's in better shape than Corbyn, the difference will be negligible.

That's a good point. Tory Whigs (or maybe One Nation Tories), will have a choice to make. For instance, it is rumoured that if you want to be in Johnson's cabinet, you must sign a pledge to accept a No Deal Brexit. Assuming Johnson decides to placate the ERG, his rhetoric will alienate anywhere between 30-100 MPs. Some like Clarke and Grieve have made it clear they will place country before party in the event of a possible No Deal and I imagine they are the tip of the iceberg. Given that the government has a majority of 3 and are beholden to the DUP, this wing of the party wields significant power.

And whether it's right or wrong, politics on Britain has become more polarised and, crucially personalised. However it plays out, whether it's in the HoC or on TV, Johnson will hammer Corbyn in debates. Johnson does soundbites very well and people are increasingly swayed by simple one-liners and slogans.This matters. Research on why Leave won in 2016 identified the personalities of Johnson and Farage as being the decisive factor.

If Corbyn really pushes a second referendum with a hint of populism, he might have a chance. However, there's the very high likelihood that he'd alienate a lot of support this way. It's tricky but he needs to stop being silent because his base is divided and actually address the problem

I think that ship has sailed. People are tired of Corbyn. He doesn't inspire and he won't be able to get people back. In fact, his biggest problem will be to keep what support Labour has left. Labour needs a new pro EU centrist leader who is erudite, bright and charismatic. Everything Corbyn isn't.

Professor Moriarty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

10 of the last 13 PMs have attended Oxford. The top civil servants, editors at the newspapers, chiefs at the BBC, lawyers, on and on - the whole elite of the UK is run by old boys from Eton and Harrow, alumni of Oxford and Cambridge.


These people are always going to be relentlessly opposed to Corbyn, who is not at all the thing.

Coincidentally, today three Labour peers have resigned from Labour due to antisemitism.

Zubeneschamali

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Coincidentally, today three Labour peers have resigned from Labour due to antisemitism.

This is, of course, not a coincidence, it is nonsense on stilts whipped up by the very same elite opinion makers.


Corbyn is not an anti-semite, he is just less than 100% behind Israel and he supports the rights of the Palestinians.


The way most Irish people do.

Professor Moriarty

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

This is, of course, not a coincidence, it is nonsense on stilts whipped up by the very same elite opinion makers.


Corbyn is not an anti-semite, he is just less than 100% behind Israel and he supports the rights of the Palestinians.


The way most Irish people do.

Maybe. But the antisemitic buck stops with him. Right or wrong, perception is everything and Labour continues to be perceived and portrayed as antisemitic. This has been rumbling on for months and months and Corbyn hasn't fixed it.

Stop moaning ffs

I’ll get shot for this but the timing of the whole labour anti semitism thing is highly suspect and came when brexit negotiations were really fraught aka not going the way Britain expected.
None of the supposed anti semites have been named our right have they? Not that I’ve heard personally.
It’s always corbyns fault.

That stinks to high heaven.

trellheim

Getting back to direct effects of No-Deal

Strip out local food and veg and bakeries. What effect does a No-Deal have on Tesco and Marks and Spencer

its going to wreck their JIT among a bunch of other things