Brexit discussion thread IX (Please read OP before posting)

Enzokk

Joe_ Public wrote: »

It's a welcome move and an interesting one, but doesnt it still beg the question as to what happens when the EU's response is the WAB is not open for renegotiation. Why would its position on that alter just because a Lab government is in place?

You are right, the deal that Labour wants will be in the Political Declaration and in the talks after they have left. So they will be in a position where the deal they can get is on the table because the EU still needs to protect itself with the backstop, they still need to have citizen's rights sorted and the divorce payment will need to be settled. That is the WA.

The only difference being they could take the border down the Irish Sea in the backstop instead of an all UK Customs Union, but Labour already said they want a permanent CU with the EU. The more I think about this the crazier it seems from Labour. But it is movement in the right direction at least.

Nody

Joe_ Public wrote: »

It's a welcome move and an interesting one, but doesnt it still beg the question as to what happens when the EU's response is the WAB is not open for renegotiation. Why would its position on that alter just because a Lab government is in place?

Removed red lines; for example he'd sell NI off without second thought to it's own zone etc. Other areas could be interesting such as minimum standards but once again EU's rule is equal or better so would most likely work easier in general but that's a long long away at this stage that Corbyn will make it into government. Tory + Brexit party is a far more likely combination I'd guess.

Joe_ Public

Nody wrote: »

Removed red lines; for example he'd sell NI off without second thought to it's own zone etc. Other areas could be interesting such as minimum standards but once again EU's rule is equal or better so would most likely work easier in general but that's a long long away at this stage that Corbyn will make it into government. Tory + Brexit party is a far more likely combination I'd guess.

Yeah, dumping the DUP is an obvious way out alright, but still not straightforward i dont think. I still dont understand where they're going, win a GE, then renegotiate, then campaign against whatever deal they come up with. That seems to be the gist of what i'm reading above anyway, all looks a bit bonkers. Personally, i dont see the BP doing as well in election as polls or several commentators suggest they will. Depends on circumstances, of course, but i think its a lot easier to vote for them in EU election or as response to a poll than it will be in GE. Just my suspicion.

Sam Russell

Nody wrote: »

Removed red lines; for example he'd sell NI off without second thought to it's own zone etc. Other areas could be interesting such as minimum standards but once again EU's rule is equal or better so would most likely work easier in general but that's a long long away at this stage that Corbyn will make it into government. Tory + Brexit party is a far more likely combination I'd guess.

Are they not feeding in the same pool?

serfboard

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I still dont understand where they're going, win a GE, then renegotiate, then campaign against whatever deal they come up with. That seems to be the gist of what i'm reading above anyway, all looks a bit bonkers.

My reading of it is:

Campaign for a second referendum with a choice of Deal or Remain. If the Deal is a Labour Deal, campaign for the Deal, if the Deal is a Tory deal, campaign for Remain.

Enzokk

Nody wrote: »

Removed red lines; for example he'd sell NI off without second thought to it's own zone etc. Other areas could be interesting such as minimum standards but once again EU's rule is equal or better so would most likely work easier in general but that's a long long away at this stage that Corbyn will make it into government. Tory + Brexit party is a far more likely combination I'd guess.

But what difference will the red lines being removed make? Let's say Labour is in and gets a WA without the backstop because they want such a close relationship as to be BRINO. Then there is a collapse of government or new election while they are busy still with the trade negotiations, the Brexit Party gets in and they back out of the trade talks and close relationship.

Then there is a hard border on this island and the EU has no recourse or any protection, so May has basically (borrowing from Johnson here) spaffed all the goodwill the UK had away and the EU will know what deal could possibly be out there for a future government.

Capt'n Midnight

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Kate Hoey not to seek re-selection at the next election.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/08/pro-brexit-labour-mp-kate-hoey-to-stand-down-at-next-election

Ms Hoey said she would not run again after the 2015 election, but then stood when the 2017 snap-election was called.


This is a huge problem with single seat FPTP system in the UK where candidates can get parachuted in to safe seats.

Any idiot could get elected in half the seats in the UK as long as they were supported by the current MP's party.



Boris has a majority of about 7,000 in his seat so while it's unlikely it's possible that he could loose his seat. But as PM he could simply plant himself in the safest seat (like wot Farage did) and romp home.

Here thanks to there being three, four or five seats , voters get to pick which TD gets elected regardless of who the party tries to parachute in.

Joe_ Public

serfboard wrote: »

My reading of it is:

Campaign for a second referendum with a choice of Deal or Remain. If the Deal is a Labour Deal, campaign for the Deal, if the Deal is a Tory deal, campaign for Remain.

Yeah thats it, i missed the "CRUCIAL " line in one of the tweets. It still makes little sense to me, though. Still making it sound like they've no real conviction one way or the other on it. Like, they're going to get some super duper deal from the eu where the other crowd failed. Thats just fantasy talk, as much as anything coming from the tory side at the moment if you ask me.

fash

Enzokk wrote: »

You are right, the deal that Labour wants will be in the Political Declaration and in the talks after they have left. So they will be in a position where the deal they can get is on the table because the EU still needs to protect itself with the backstop, they still need to have citizen's rights sorted and the divorce payment will need to be settled. That is the WA.

The only difference being they could take the border down the Irish Sea in the backstop instead of an all UK Customs Union, but Labour already said they want a permanent CU with the EU. The more I think about this the crazier it seems from Labour. But it is movement in the right direction at least.

I could see the EU moving to the extent that a permanent CU was incorporated into a hybrid WA agreement - which Labour could sell as their agreement as different and better than May's. Nonsense of course- but there you go.

S.M.B.

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Kate Hoey not to seek re-selection at the next election.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jul/08/pro-brexit-labour-mp-kate-hoey-to-stand-down-at-next-election

Maybe I can actually vote for Labour so.

Nody

Sam Russell wrote: »

Are they not feeding in the same pool?

Partially but not 100%; basically they would take up most of right as well as Brexit party stealing Labour leavers.

woohoo!!!

Scathing criticism from Trump of the UK ambassador and Mays handling of Brexit. That's the US added to the list that the UK has pissed off including of course the EU, China and Japan. For once I agree with Trump, what a mess.

Water John

Listening to Dispatches you have a Scientologist bringing hard right youth politics, that helped Trump to the UK. The idiot uses the phrase ' change things for a thousand year'. Wonder where we heard that before?

KildareP

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Scathing criticism from Trump of the UK ambassador and Mays handling of Brexit. That's the US added to the list that the UK has pissed off including of course the EU, China and Japan. For once I agree with Trump, what a mess.

You'd almost feel sorry for the UK. Almost...

Beechwoodspark

Panorama on the topic of is Britain ready for no deal just started

reslfj

fash wrote: »

I could see the EU moving to the extent that a permanent CU was incorporated into a hybrid WA agreement - which Labour could sell as their agreement as different and better than May's. Nonsense of course- but there you go.

The WA is a done deal - it must be ratified as is or post 'No Deal' as it now is except for the transition periods.

The future deal will be a very slow negotiation as the UK doesn't even know - both Tory or Labour - what kind of deal they wants.

Both parties seem to be in desperate need for even a few people with any basic knowledge and understanding of trade and trade deals - not to mention any with real practical experience with negotiating trade deals.

Lars

reslfj

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Panorama on the topic of is Britain ready for no deal just started

Will this program be available on the internet (outside the UK too)?

Lars

Spanish Eyes

Do the unions support Corbyn though, that is the BIG question.

Beechwoodspark

reslfj wrote: »

Will this program be available on the internet (outside the UK too)?

Lars

Maybe YouTube.

Beechwoodspark

Anyone watching this?

NI border farmer whinging about his fears for his dairy business but also proudly saying leave leave leave.

Up to the politicians to sort it he says.

bilston

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Scathing criticism from Trump of the UK ambassador and Mays handling of Brexit. That's the US added to the list that the UK has pissed off including of course the EU, China and Japan. For once I agree with Trump, what a mess.

Not sure I agree with your conclusions here.

It seems to me that this is being orchestrated by allies of Trump in the UK so that Trump gets the man he wants as UK ambassador.

The UK ambassador was doing what every diplomat does. Trump didn't like what was being said about him so has taken a hissy fit.

Most politicians in the UK say the wrongdoing was the leak...that is except Brexit Party politicians..

Mr.Nice Guy

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Anyone watching this?

NI border farmer whinging about his fears for his dairy business but also proudly saying leave leave leave.

Up to the politicians to sort it he says.

Talk about shooting oneself in the foot. Doesn't sound like he accepts any responsibility. "They need to get off their backsides and do a deal".

Strazdas

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Anyone watching this?

NI border farmer whinging about his fears for his dairy business but also proudly saying leave leave leave.

Up to the politicians to sort it he says.

The decision should never have been handed over to total idiots like this. You may as well be asking him for his opinion on Euratom or Horizon 2020.

devnull

S.M.B. wrote: »

Maybe I can actually vote for Labour so.

Her statement says she will not stand for Labour again, it doesn't say she won't stand.....

woohoo!!!

bilston wrote: »

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Scathing criticism from Trump of the UK ambassador and Mays handling of Brexit. That's the US added to the list that the UK has pissed off including of course the EU, China and Japan. For once I agree with Trump, what a mess.

Not sure I agree with your conclusions here.

It seems to me that this is being orchestrated by allies of Trump in the UK so that Trump gets the man he wants as UK ambassador.

The UK ambassador was doing what every diplomat does. Trump didn't like what was being said about him so has taken a hissy fit.

Most politicians in the UK say the wrongdoing was the leak...that is except Brexit Party politicians..

The ambassador is doing precisely the job he's being paid to do, I attach no blame to him. The mess over Brexit is where I agree with Trump but for differing reasons to him. It's a new low for UK politics to leak the ambassadors comments and Trump is being Trump for blatantly seeking to oust an ambassador. The timing is no accident and it beggars belief that someone would seek to further humiliate the UK for their own political ends.

Water John

Opinion seems to be, possibly Brexiteers seeking to have one of their own installed in the job.

bilston

Water John wrote: »

Opinion seems to be, possibly Brexiteers seeking to have one of their own installed in the job.

Interesting to note who the two Foreign Secretaries were at the time that these cables were sent. Not that I'm saying it was either Johnson or Hunt...they aren't that stupid...but wasn't it reported last week that May didn't trust Johnson with some classified information when he was Foreign Secretary.

J Mysterio

According to the Guardian, the leak originates from Isabel Oakeshott.

Guardian wrote:

Isabel Oakeshott, the journalist who received the leak, is close to a number of pro-Brexit politicians and co-wrote an account of the EU referendum with Arron Banks, the leave-supporting donor, who is under investigation by the National Crime Agency over the sources of funding for the Leave.EU campaign.

However, Alan Duncan, a Foreign Office minister, told the Commons it was the government’s belief that the leak made its way to Oakeshott “from within” Whitehall, rather than being handed over by foreign agents. He said the Cabinet Office had begun its formal hunt for the mole among current senior politicians, aides and civil servants, but did not at this stage think it was right to involve the police.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jul/08/donald-trump-we-will-no-longer-deal-with-the-british-ambassador#img-1

That of course follows earlier leaks including that by Gavin Williamson, which cost him his job as defence secretary.

Isabel was just tweeting the other day about how Boris must deliver Brexit 'to save the Tory party'. Completely bizarre of course: it's the UK needs saving, from the Mad Max Wasteland.

https://twitter.com/IsabelOakeshott/status/1145351635830550528

Meanwhile, the 'UK has [already] fallen' according to "Tommy Robinson". He has been on Infowars pleading with Trump to 'look at his case', and give him asylum. You couldn't make it up. Genuinely, you could not make this crap up.

UK Independent wrote:

“I beg Donald Trump, I beg the American government, to look at my case,” he said on Monday. “I need evacuation from this country because dark forces are at work.”

“This is a direct appeal on behalf of my family – we love the United States, I have no future here [in Britain],” he added. “The country has fallen.”

Itssoeasy

Very interesting program on RTÉ Two no called brexit: behind closed doors where a camera crew follow around and get unique access to Guy Verhofstadt. Very interesting stuff so far.

Itssoeasy

Ah so according to a Tory MP the eu will be making Ireland suffer. The UK don’t want to impose a border and the EU will be the ones to impose the border. This documentary isn’t helping the UK look any better.