Gemma O'Doherty and her unicorns

Overheal

Yes delighted now thanks. If the description of the cudgel didn’t matter you wouldn’t have bothered to describe it surely?

recedite

banie01 wrote: »

Well surely the AfD sweeping the board in those State Elections is a sure sign of the deeply held and vociferous anti-immigrant stance.
Except, that's not what happened.
The AfD support dropped significantly versus their 2017 Bundestag election performance.
11% Vs 13.3% in 2017.

What elections are you talking about?
In 2017 AfD did very well and got their first seats in the Bundestag. 94 of them in fact.
The next election is not scheduled until 2021.


Maybe you're thinking of the recent European Parliament elections?
They won 11 seats, which is 4 more than they had before.

King Mob

recedite wrote: »

What elections are you talking about?
In 2017 AfD did very well and got their first seats in the Bundestag. 94 of them in fact.
The next election is not scheduled until 2021.


Maybe you're thinking of the recent European Parliament elections?
They won 11 seats, which is 4 more than they had before.

Red, you've missed a few posts there.

Do you have any studies that directly support your claims about open borders?

Stop moaning ffs

recedite wrote: »

Which reminds me, I asked a while ago where was the evidence that Gemma was anti-British?
Now you're going on a bigoted sectarian rant yourself. You just can't help yourself, can you?

As I suspected, the finger was being pointed in completely the wrong direction. The real haters are down at Google HQ today.

Gemma’s people today. Not Nazis at all.

https://twitter.com/soundmigration/status/1160205487574589441?s=21

0gac3yjefb5sv7

If her issue is with free speech, why doesn't she upload her videos to her own website? They won't be taken down from there.

It's the responsibility of a private company to allow you free speech? Nope.

King Mob

Pheonix10 wrote: »

If her issue is with free speech, why doesn't she upload her videos to her own website? They won't be taken down from there.
.

Less revenue and attention. More operating costs.

banie01

recedite wrote: »

What elections are you talking about?
In 2017 AfD did very well and got their first seats in the Bundestag. 94 of them in fact.
The next election is not scheduled until 2021.


Maybe you're thinking of the recent European Parliament elections?
They won 11 seats, which is 4 more than they had before.

The German state assembly elections.
Given your expertise regarding Germany and the fact I stated the "state elections", I didn't realise any further specificity was needed.

Timberrrrrrrr

banie01 wrote: »

The German state assembly elections.
Given your expertise regarding Germany and the fact I stated the "state elections", I didn't realise any further specificity was needed.

Use smaller words and crayons next tme

recedite

banie01 wrote: »

The German state assembly elections.
Given your expertise regarding Germany and the fact I stated the "state elections", I didn't realise any further specificity was needed.

Which state?
There will election in Brandenburg (Berlin) in 3 weeks time. AfD and the Greens are the two parties on the rise.
Germans are still very keen on the environment and the anti-nuclear war thing of course.
What they really need is an environmentally minded party that isn't also a looney left/open borders party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Brandenburg_state_election

Stephen15

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

I don't support open borders or islamic terrorism. You on the other hand support racist ideology that motivates white supremacist terrorists.

Do you support tougher border controls then?

Stop moaning ffs

Stephen15 wrote: »

Do you support tougher border controls then?

By 2050, four out of every ten people on the globe will be African.

Sleep well tonight

Annasopra

Stephen15 wrote: »

Do you support tougher border controls then?

They are fine at the moment

Timberrrrrrrr

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

By 2050, four out of every ten people on the globe will be African.

Sleep well tonight

And?

Do you see this as a bad thing?

Stop moaning ffs

Timberrrrrrrr wrote: »

And?

Do you see this as a bad thing?

God no. No feeling either way, just like seeing the cretins against immigration getting worked up

banie01

recedite wrote: »

Which state?
There will election in Brandenburg (Berlin) in 3 weeks time. AfD and the Greens are the two parties on the rise.
Germans are still very keen on the environment and the anti-nuclear war thing of course.
What they really need is an environmentally minded party that isn't also a looney left/open borders party.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Brandenburg_state_election

Recedite, below is a list of the local/state elections for Germany in May.

Germany, Baden-Württemberg municipal elections
Germany, Brandenburg municipal elections
Germany, Bremen state election
Germany, Hamburg municipal elections
Germany, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern municipal elections
Germany, Rhineland-Palatinate municipal elections
Germany, Saarland municipal elections
Germany, Saxony municipal elections
Germany, Saxony-Anhalt municipal elections
Germany, Thuringia municipal elections

I don't have a breakdown for AfD performance for each of those districts.

The EU election however gave the AfD a share of 11% of the vote at a national level(Vs 7.1% in 2014), this contrasts with their 13.3% share of the vote in the previous Bundestag Election of 2017.

While the AfD did increase their vote in the 2019 EU election Vis a vis their 2014 result, and by a margin of @45%, those gains are a decline from their 2017 Bundestag election peak of 13.3% and in any electoral arithmetic a drop of 20% is significant.

Brandenburg and the AfD performance there in next month's election will be quite interesting.
It does however need to be viewed with a couple of particular caveats.
1. Berlin is not part of the Brandenburg State legislature.
2. Brandenburg is the former East Germany's heartland and has suffered serious economic issues since the reunification, akin to the US Rust Belt, or the UKs industrial north.

The common theme rising in those areas in particular is an impetus by certain Identity politics peddlars to "Make them great again".

That is not a reason IMO to disregard the AfD's expected gains in Brandenburg next month, it does however place it in a particular context.

That context is best reviewed on a national scale in Germany and as such the AfD is currently in decline.

Stephen15

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

They are fine at the moment

No they are not. If they are fine at the moment then how come there have been crimes and terror attacks committed by immigrants in Europe?

Annasopra

Stephen15 wrote: »

No they are not. If they are fine at the moment then how come there have been crimes and terror attacks committed by immigrants in Europe?

Crime happens. Blaming immigrants for all crime and terror attacks in Europe is just literally ridiculous.

The vast majority of crime is comitted by natives. People like Gemma and her supporters want to basically dehumanise, demonise and basically hate everyone that isnt a white european christian and part of this racist ideology is about blaming all crime on immigrants. It's a pretty digusting barbaric ideology and we have seen the consequences in Utoya, Batley and Spen, Christchurch and El Paso.

Stephen15

Joeytheparrot wrote: »

Crime happens. Blaming immigrants for all crime and terror attacks in Europe is just literally ridiculous.

The vast majority of crime is comitted by natives. People like Gemma and her supporters want to basically dehumanise, demonise and basically hate everyone that isnt a white european christian and part of this racist ideology is about blaming all crime on immigrants. It's a pretty digusting barbaric ideology and we have seen the consequences in Utoya, Batley and Spen, Christchurch and El Paso.

You strike me as if your shrugging it off as if it wasn't an issue. I never blamed immigrants for all crime where did I say that? What is support is reduced crime one of the ways I believe this can be achieved is by a tougher immigration policy
for example better vetting of immigrants and they're criminal record before entering Ireland.

It also strikes that you only seem outraged by far right terror attacks which don't get me wrong are an absolute disgrace like all terror attacks but not outraged by Islamic terror attacks which have been far more plentiful in Europe in recent years. As for the recent mass shootings in the States I will say America obivously has a serious gun problem that needs to be sorted out somehow or other however this has been a problem since long before Trump ot any sort of online political activism.

I for one certainly do not support dehumanising or demonising non white Europeans what I do support is a country which is predominantly idigenous Irish and immigrants only allowed in where they can fill skill shortages in the labour market however I do not support unskilled immigration which is what we are getting.

AndrewJRenko

Pheonix10 wrote: »

If her issue is with free speech, why doesn't she upload her videos to her own website?

Follow the money. She wouldn't get any ad/click revenue from her own website, so she's really keen to make sure that her much despised YouTube keep on funding her.

Stephen15 wrote: »

No they are not. If they are fine at the moment then how come there have been crimes and terror attacks committed by immigrants in Europe?

For the same reasons as there have been crimes and terror attacks committed by non-immigrants in Europe.

Stop moaning ffs

Stephen15 wrote: »

You strike me as if your shrugging it off as if it wasn't an issue. I never blamed immigrants for all crime where did I say that? What is support is reduced crime one of the ways I believe this can be achieved is by a tougher immigration policy
for example better vetting of immigrants and they're criminal record before entering Ireland.

It also strikes that you only seem outraged by far right terror attacks which don't get me wrong are an absolute disgrace like all terror attacks but not outraged by Islamic terror attacks which have been far more plentiful in Europe in recent years. As for the recent mass shootings in the States I will say America obivously has a serious gun problem that needs to be sorted out somehow or other however this has been a problem since long before Trump ot any sort of online political activism.

I for one certainly do not support dehumanising or demonising non white Europeans what I do support is a country which is predominantly idigenous Irish and immigrants only allowed in where they can fill skill shortages in the labour market however I do not support unskilled immigration which is what we are getting.

Are the 400,0000 irish that emigrated to other countries since 2012 all skilled?

In their hole they are

Stephen15

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Are the 400,0000 irish that emigrated to other countries since 2012 all skilled?

In their hole they are

That's irelevant other countries are free not to let Irish people their country their rules. Also many of the Irish are skilled and I am firmly against the government policies which have forced Irish people to have to emigrate.

banie01

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Are the 400,0000 irish that emigrated to other countries since 2012 all skilled?

In their hole they are

It's ok tho, they were Ireland's gift to the world.
Hard working, white and Christian

recedite

banie01 wrote: »

Recedite, below is a list of the local/state elections for Germany in May.

Germany, Baden-Württemberg municipal elections
Germany, Brandenburg municipal elections
Germany, Bremen state election
Germany, Hamburg municipal elections
Germany, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern municipal elections
Germany, Rhineland-Palatinate municipal elections
Germany, Saarland municipal elections
Germany, Saxony municipal elections
Germany, Saxony-Anhalt municipal elections
Germany, Thuringia municipal elections

I don't have a breakdown for AfD performance for each of those districts.

Why am I not surprised.
So you now agree there is no actual day for German "state elections" then.

banie01 wrote: »

The EU election however gave the AfD a share of 11% of the vote at a national level(Vs 7.1% in 2014), this contrasts with their 13.3% share of the vote in the previous Bundestag Election of 2017.
While the AfD did increase their vote in the 2019 EU election Vis a vis their 2014 result, and by a margin of @45%, those gains are a decline from their 2017 Bundestag election peak of 13.3% and in any electoral arithmetic a drop of 20% is significant.

So as I suspected, you had heard something about their European Parliament elections, and got that mixed up with "state elections".
Its apples and oranges really, but lets compare them anyway.

Here again is what I said...

In 2017 AfD did very well and got their first seats in the Bundestag. 94 of them in fact.
The next election is not scheduled until 2021.
Maybe you're thinking of the recent European Parliament elections?
They won 11 seats, which is 4 more than they had before.

Both sets of stats are correct, but it shows how easy it is to cherry pick and manipulate stats to support a narrative. I'll stand by my original assertion that AfD made gains both times, when correctly compared to their previous results in the same elections.

banie01 wrote: »

Brandenburg and the AfD performance there in next month's election will be quite interesting.
It does however need to be viewed with a couple of particular caveats.
1. Berlin is not part of the Brandenburg State legislature.
2. Brandenburg is the former East Germany's heartland and has suffered serious economic issues since the reunification, akin to the US Rust Belt, or the UKs industrial north.

The common theme rising in those areas in particular is an impetus by certain Identity politics peddlars to "Make them great again".

That is not a reason IMO to disregard the AfD's expected gains in Brandenburg next month, it does however place it in a particular context.

That context is best reviewed on a national scale in Germany and as such the AfD is currently in decline.

Indeed it will be very interesting. I see you (along with everyone else) are expecting AfD to make further electoral gains.
And you are getting your excuses in early :pac:


I really can't see how you can justify your conclusion that AfD are "currently in decline", from any of the above.

But if that's what you want to believe, be my guest.

King Mob

recedite wrote: »

Why am I not surprised.

So that's a no on the study to support your beliefs then?

Cools.

banie01

recedite wrote: »

Why am I not surprised.
So you now agree there is no actual day for German "state elections" then.

Agree? With what? At no point did you say that?
The elections listed took place on the the 26th of May.

Whilst I don't have a breakdown for the district's listed, if you do?
Post it?
Let's discuss those numbers rather than the national number?

recedite wrote: »

So as I suspected, you had heard something about their European Parliament elections, and got that mixed up with "state elections".
Its apples and oranges really, but lets compare them anyway.

Suspected? When did you mention those suspicions?
Are you engaging in a little aftertiming?

It really isn't, it's a comparison of national electoral performance in mass elections 2 years apart.

To give a further overview, I did you the service of including the 2014 AfD EU numbers and even went to the trouble of laying out the gain for EU elections versus their drop in support overall in the 2 years subsequent to the Bundestag election.

recedite wrote: »

Here again is what I said...
Both sets of stats are correct, but it shows how easy it is to cherry pick and manipulate stats to support a narrative. I'll stand by my original assertion that AfD made gains both times, when correctly compared to their previous results in the same elections.

Thats your view, it's not how electoral polling or opinion polling works.
But don't let that impede your understanding of polling data or statistical comparison and validation.

recedite wrote: »

Indeed it will be very interesting. I see you (along with everyone else) are expecting AfD to make further electoral gains.
And you are getting your excuses in early :pac:


I really can't see how you can justify your conclusion that AfD are "currently in decline", from any of the above.

But if that's what you want to believe, be my guest.

I'm not getting any excuses in. The polling data would indicate that AfD will pull in @20% of the vote in Brandenburg.
I'm laying out the particular circumstances of the Brandenburg State elections and correcting the error of including Berlin in that.

I am also trying to at least give a broader context of the socio economic circumstances that are particular to Brandenburg and much of old east Germany, where funnily enough AfD support is at its highest.

To understand an issue, I believe you have to at least try and grasp the factors that are common to other areas experiencing similar issues and the motivation of the voters.
Their fears, their issues and the rhetoric driving debate.

Stop moaning ffs

Stephen15 wrote: »

That's irelevant other countries are free not to let Irish people their country their rules. Also many of the Irish are skilled and I am firmly against the government policies which have forced Irish people to have to emigrate.

Do you know how many of that 400,000 are currently in countries illegally?

The answer will shock you. But it’s ok cos they’re white though right?

King Mob

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Do you know how many of that 400,000 are currently in countries illegally?

The answer will shock you. But it’s ok cos they’re white though right?

That and Irish people never do crime or terrorism of course :pac:

Stephen15

Stop moaning ffs wrote: »

Do you know how many of that 400,000 are currently in countries illegally?

The answer will shock you. But it’s ok cos they’re white though right?

If the Irish are living abroad illegally then I would have no problem if they deported them back to here. Their country their rules they're our problem just like illegal immigrants living in Ireland are not our problem. I disagree with immigration and emigration as I believe people should be allowed to prosper in their homelands

King Mob

Stephen15 wrote: »

If the Irish are living abroad illegally then I would have no problem if they deported them back to here. Their country their rules they're our problem just like illegal immigrants living in Ireland are not our problem. I disagree with immigration and emigration as I believe people should be allowed to prosper in their homelands

So then how about people who are born in a different country from that of their parents or grandparents.
Where do you believe they should go?

Annasopra

Stephen15 wrote: »

You strike me as if your shrugging it off as if it wasn't an issue. I never blamed immigrants for all crime where did I say that? What is support is reduced crime one of the ways I believe this can be achieved is by a tougher immigration policy
for example better vetting of immigrants and they're criminal record before entering Ireland.

It also strikes that you only seem outraged by far right terror attacks which don't get me wrong are an absolute disgrace like all terror attacks but not outraged by Islamic terror attacks which have been far more plentiful in Europe in recent years. As for the recent mass shootings in the States I will say America obivously has a serious gun problem that needs to be sorted out somehow or other however this has been a problem since long before Trump ot any sort of online political activism.

I for one certainly do not support dehumanising or demonising non white Europeans what I do support is a country which is predominantly idigenous Irish and immigrants only allowed in where they can fill skill shortages in the labour market however I do not support unskilled immigration which is what we are getting.

You strike me as if you are shrugging off the dangers of far right racist ideology. You appear to be dismissing Utoya, Batley and Spen, Chrustchurch and El Paso as if there is no connection at all to the far right racist ideologies that you support. The facts are that the far right racist ideologies and conspirscy theories that you support and espouse are a massive danger to our society and you can't simply dismiss Utoya, Batley and Spen, Christchurch snd El Paso as "lone rangers" - they have direct connections to the ideologies you support and espouse.