Peter Casey to contest the European elections

Riskymove

Cryptopagan wrote: »

They won’t be.

recent tweets from count centre indicate he will actually be ahead of McHugh!

eagle eye

ohnonotgmail wrote:

my figures are based on an exit poll. and of course they COULD be wildy inaccurate but they're probably not.

Well it appears the exit polls results have been way out.

Cryptopagan

Riskymove wrote: »

recent tweets from count centre indicate he will actually be ahead of McHugh!

Link to them then.

Cryptopagan

It is interesting to see how difficult Casey supporters find it to reconcile themselves to reality. It’s clear Casey’s bid for a seat in Europe is an abject failure, but they continue to insist that the exit poll is wrong, the tallies are wrong, the latest from count centre is that he’s actually doing well. Certainly not reflecting on the result and wondering if it’s them who are out of touch with reality and not everyone else.

Riskymove

Cryptopagan wrote: »

Link to them then.

Here's one with his scribbled estimates based on examining the bundles

https://twitter.com/patmcgrath/status/1132990859430027271

is_that_so

eagle eye wrote: »

It's based on tallies. They could be wildly innacurate.

No this is based on actual votes. He seems to have 56K in FPVs, she has 50K.

eagle eye

Cryptopagan wrote:

It is interesting to see how difficult Casey supporters find it to reconcile themselves to reality. It’s clear Casey’s bid for a seat in Europe is an abject failure, but they continue to insist that the exit poll is wrong, the tallies are wrong, the latest from count centre is that he’s actually doing well. Certainly not reflecting on the result and wondering if it’s them who are out of touch with reality and not everyone else.

There is no result yet, when we get a result of the first count then we can talk more.
How on Earth do you know it's an abject failure before anyone in the count centre?
What do you consider an abject failure. Is finishing fifth an abject failure in your mind or a close call?

Cryptopagan

eagle eye wrote: »

There is no result yet, when we get a result of the first count then we can talk more.
How on Earth do you know it's an abject failure before anyone in the count centre?
What do you consider an abject failure. Is finishing fifth an abject failure in your mind or a close call?

That’s what exit poll indicated, and usually it’s accurate. If I’m wrong and he takes a seat or narrowly misses out, fair enough, it doesn’t change my view on him one bit. He’ll be an utterly useless MEP.

Riskymove

RTE News reporting same Casey 5th and McHugh 6th

I don't think he will win a seat though, difficult to see the transfers




RTE also saying Mick Wallace will be 3rd in South...again very different from exit poll

eagle eye

Cryptopagan wrote:

That’s what exit poll indicated, and usually it’s accurate. If I’m wrong and he takes a seat or narrowly misses out, fair enough, it doesn’t change my view on him one bit. He’ll be an utterly useless MEP.

I don't care what your view is on it and I don't care what he is like as an MEP either.
Just hearing that it's likely going to come down to the transfers from FF to decide the last three seats.

Loafing Oaf

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't care what your view is on it and I don't care what he is like as an MEP either.
Just hearing that it's likely going to come down to the transfers from FF to decide the last three seats.

If McHugh is in sixth surely her transfers will be at least as relevant as FF's. And I'll stick my neck out and predict they would favour Walsh over Casey...

ohnonotgmail

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

If McHugh is in sixth surely her transfers will be at least as relevant as FF's. And I'll stick my neck out and predict they would favour Walsh over Casey...

massively so. I dont see much commonality between the greens and casey.

is_that_so

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

If McHugh is in sixth surely her transfers will be at least as relevant as FF's. And I'll stick my neck out and predict they would favour Walsh over Casey...

The two FF will be eliminated before her and they will come to about 70K to be distributed.

yesnow

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

If McHugh is in sixth surely her transfers will be at least as relevant as FF's. And I'll stick my neck out and predict they would favour Walsh over Casey...

Only narrowly. I’d say they’ll both only get a handful of transfers from her. Her transfers will mainly go to Ming and Carthy, I think.

Cryptopagan

eagle eye wrote: »

I don't care what your view is on it and I don't care what he is like as an MEP either.

Thankfully, the vast majority of Irish voters do care what he’d be like, and don’t care about the “concerns” of his supporters.

Midlands NW Count.
Sorry for the all-caps, writing on my phone

ELECTORATE 1,224,888

POLL 616,555

INVALID 21, 628

VALID 594,927

4 SEATS
Q = 118,986

BRENNAN C/ SPBP 8,130
CARTHY M/ SF 77, 619
CASEY P/ IND 56,650
FLANAGAN LM/ IND 85,034
GREENE, P/ DDI 1, 352
HANNIGAN D/ LAB 12,378
HEALY EAMES F/ IND 15,991
MAHAPATRA D/ IND 2,450
MCGUINNESS M/ FG 134,630
MCHUGH S/ GP 51,019
MILLER J/ IND 1322
MULCAHY D/ IND 789
O'CONNOR O/ IND 3,132
O'DOWD M/ REN 6,897
RABBITTE A/ FF 30,220
SMYTH B/ FF 42,814
WALSH, M/ FG 64,500

yesnow

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Midlands NW Count.
Sorry for the all-caps, writing on my phone

ELECTORATE 1,224,888

POLL 616,555

INVALID 21, 628

VALID 594,927

4 SEATS
Q = 118,986

BRENNAN C/ SPBP 8,130
CARTHY M/ SF 77, 619
CASEY P/ IND 56,650
FLANAGAN LM/ IND 85,034
GREENE, P/ DDI 1, 352
HANNIGAN D/ LAB 12,378
HEALY EAMES F/ IND 15,991
MAHAPATRA D/ IND 2,450
MCGUINNESS M/ FG 134,630
MCHUGH S/ GP 51,019
MILLER J/ IND 1322
MULCAHY D/ IND 789
O'CONNOR O/ IND 3,132
O'DOWD M/ REN 6,897
RABBITTE A/ FF 30,220
SMYTH B/ FF 42,814
WALSH, M/ FG 64,500

Is this the official first count?

yesnow

yesnow wrote: »

Is this the official first count?

Yep, that's official.

Casey did better than expected, but it's Goodnight Venice.

ohnonotgmail

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Midlands NW Count.
Sorry for the all-caps, writing on my phone

ELECTORATE 1,224,888

POLL 616,555

INVALID 21, 628

VALID 594,927

4 SEATS
Q = 118,986

BRENNAN C/ SPBP 8,130
CARTHY M/ SF 77, 619
CASEY P/ IND 56,650
FLANAGAN LM/ IND 85,034
GREENE, P/ DDI 1, 352
HANNIGAN D/ LAB 12,378
HEALY EAMES F/ IND 15,991
MAHAPATRA D/ IND 2,450
MCGUINNESS M/ FG 134,630
MCHUGH S/ GP 51,019
MILLER J/ IND 1322
MULCAHY D/ IND 789
O'CONNOR O/ IND 3,132
O'DOWD M/ REN 6,897
RABBITTE A/ FF 30,220
SMYTH B/ FF 42,814
WALSH, M/ FG 64,500

Same but rearranged in order of votes received. I think casey will struggle to make up the 9000 vote gap.

MCGUINNESS M/ FG 134,630
FLANAGAN LM/ IND 85,034
CARTHY M/ SF 77, 619
WALSH, M/ FG 64,500
CASEY P/ IND 56,650
MCHUGH S/ GP 51,019
SMYTH B/ FF 42,814
RABBITTE A/ FF 30,220
HEALY EAMES F/ IND 15,991
HANNIGAN D/ LAB 12,378
BRENNAN C/ SPBP 8,130
O'DOWD M/ REN 6,897
O'CONNOR O/ IND 3,132
MAHAPATRA D/ IND 2,450
GREENE, P/ DDI 1, 352
MILLER J/ IND 1322
MULCAHY D/ IND 789

Geuze

Yes.


https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/results/?app=true#/european/midlands-north-west

Fan of Netflix

Incredible Casey outpolled Saoirse McHugh, the RTE exit poll was way off, they were lauding her and saying Ming would lose his seat. All media analysis reflected this as it was a done deal. Time for RTE to ditch their exit polls, their samples and margin of errors make it absurd.

Augme

Very hard to see anyone challenging the top 4 there.

ohnonotgmail

ohnonotgmail wrote: »

Same but rearranged in order of votes received. I think casey will struggle to make up the 9000 vote gap.

Looking at transfer opportunities, I've about as much chance of winning as Casey does (I'm obviously not a candidate!)

Labour and SPBP transfers will be interesting, Green candidate is unlikely to swing it, but still in with a shot. Casey's transfers may prove decisive. I wouldn't be surprised if Casey gets Carthy elected.

Fan of Netflix

I actually feel sorry for Saoirse McHugh, RTE were making on her a celebrity and asking her her plans in the parliament based on their nonsense exit poll. It's not really fair, she seems a very nice person.

ollkiller

A Tyrant Named Miltiades! wrote: »

Looking at transfer opportunities, I've about as much chance of winning as Casey does.

Labour and SPBP transfers will be interesting, Green candidate is unlikely to swing it, but still in with a shot. Casey's transfers may prove decisive. I wouldn't be surprised if Casey gets Carthy elected.

Aye will be close but after McGuinness surplus you have about 36000 votes in the lower echelons and a lot could go to the greens from there. Could get very interesting.

eagle eye

Exit polls was way, way off. Major embarrassment for RTE.
Looks like Walsh will get circa 8000 from McGuiness, interesting to see where the rest go.
Then the 30000 or so from the stragglers come into play before the Labour candidate.
If nobody is elected before the two FF'ers go out it's anybody's guess what way it will go.

Fan of Netflix

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

I actually feel sorry for Saoirse McHugh, RTE were making on her a celebrity and asking her her plans in the parliament based on their nonsense exit poll. It's not really fair, she seems a very nice person.

I know what you mean, but even if she falls short (she likely will), she deserves every compliment she's gotten from all quarters for her hard work, and for just being a good egg (organic, naturally).

Incredible result for a candidate who was unheard-of 10 days ago.

normanoffside

ollkiller wrote: »

Aye will be close but after McGuinness surplus you have about 36000 votes in the lower echelons and a lot could go to the greens from there. Could get very interesting.

I doubt it. Ming was tweeting 2nd preference tallies from the lower rung candidates yesterday and McHugh was transferring very poorly.

blinding

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

I actually feel sorry for Saoirse McHugh, RTE were making on her a celebrity and asking her her plans in the parliament based on their nonsense exit poll. It's not really fair, she seems a very nice person.

Rte are useless .

blinding

blinding wrote: »

Rte are useless .

RED C was the polling company. RTE just paid for the poll.

Polls aren't supposed to replace the real thing; they merely identify trends.

It's too early as yet to say how far-off the poll was, because the STV is factored into the calculation for the margin of error.