Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

BonnieSituation

Bambi wrote: »

If only John Smith hadn't taken a banger of a heart attack up the side of a mountain etc. etc.

This! exactly this!

That being said, I'd take the SNP and potential Scottish Independence which is the thread that leads from the day that his death ushered in new labour and lost their way in Scotland.

But even as a kid I realised the significance of Smith's death!

An Ciarraioch

Interestingly, UK turnout appears to have been higher in Remain areas:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1131894704453427202

BonnieSituation

Leroy42 wrote: »

I think that many MP's might give their vote for him on the basis that that is the will of the people (or at least the membership). To deny him a shot at the election of a leader would not go down well with many Tory members.

This is where the lack of gumption or leadership keeps coming to the fore.

If you don't think it's in the interests of the party or country to have him as leader/PM then make sure you state that and vote accordingly.

Politicians are meant to be there to lead.

Pandering to the electorate is why they are where they are. Giving the Tory membership an option to pick as South Park so eloquently put it, "a douche or a turd sandwich", is not leading or sensible.

Sam Russell

I think May's mistake was to be the second Iron Lady, but thought it had something to do with laundry.

Cryptopagan

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interestingly, UK turnout appears to have been higher in Remain areas:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1131894704453427202

Wouldn’t it usually be higher in “Remain” areas anyhow?

j8wk2feszrnpao

73.6 Leave Vote in South Holland. Good to know, in case I ever come across Snake Oil or Magic Beans that I want to sell.

Leroy42

Really poor turnout figures in that list. Highest of 47%, down to 33%. If that turns out to be across the board then the people of the UK have given their verdict and we can have little sympathy for whatever befalls them from now on.

Enzokk

About that policy of yours, Mr Corbyn, how do you think it is going?

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1131902885766356992

I wonder if this election will be the one that shakes his brain trust or if they will do a May and double down on the path they have chosen?

Seth Brundle

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Interestingly, UK turnout appears to have been higher in Remain areas:

http://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1131894704453427202

Pretty poor turnout!

Zubeneschamali

VinLieger wrote: »

Didnt Macron put his foot down about no more extentions?

No, but he did burn a lot of good will yakking about it.

listermint

Rjd2 wrote: »

Nope. Its an incredibly authoritarian move that from Australia. If people don't want to vote no matter the reason, then leave them alone.

I don't think you know what authoritarian means.


This is gas

Zubeneschamali

FrancieBrady wrote: »

there is NO such thing as a vote for No Deal. to avoid that they have to vote for the Deal or to revoke Article 50.

Or just keep extending it forever.

CelticRambler

Akrasia wrote: »

Goebbels said it in the 1940s, Lie big and stick to it, and the people think that it must be the truth

Anteayer wrote: »

What's worrying me is the French opinion polls. Looks like Le Pen's group are going to have largest tranche of French seats. Although, French opinion polling can be somewhat difficult to read sometimes.

I think you're right to be worried and I'd be fairly confident that votes cast will reflect the opinion polls for two reasons: (1) like the Brits, the French are not used to a one-round, YES-your-vote-actually-matters, PR election and there are a hell of a lot of people who want to cast a "symbolic" protest vote without really meaning anything by it; and (2) seeing and hearing the manifestos of the majority of the parties, the French are being targeted with almost exactly the same combination of lies, terrorism and unicornism that Farage&Co. have been peddling for years. I have no doubt that the "&Co." part of that includes a lot of non-EU influence, and that it's not just the British Leavers who are happily sleepwalking towards a remake of that chapter of history that featured Goebbels and his mates.

Enzokk

martingriff wrote: »

Just wondering given that she has said she is leaving and has given a date why us the leadership race not starting until the 7th.

Not sure if this has been answered or not but Parliament is in recess at the moment so they will only return on the 4th June. During that time Trump is visiting and you have the 75th D-Day anniversary as well so I guess that is the only day that the Tories can start their own fighting about who should be leader. No rush, only Brexit to sort out though.

ILoveYourVibes

So boris jonson for pm now?

ancapailldorcha

Mod: I have created a new thread for discussion of mandatory voting.

L1011

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

So boris jonson for pm now?

May is still the PM. If she resigns the PM role before there's a new leader, it'll be David Lidington temporarily.

ambro25

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

So boris jonson for pm now?

Murphy's Law of unintended Brexit consequences.

People will say whatever they want about Brits: these guys are still taking on all comers in the self-deprecating humour stakes!

I wouldn't be as pessimistic as CelticRambler about the FR vote in the EU elections: all points fair and well-made, but the French electorate is demonstrably more politically-nuanced and -aware than its British equivalent, the recent confirmation of Marine Lepen's sanction for misuse of MEP expenses (repay €300k) has been all over the media this week painting her as the proverbial snout-in-trough, and recent information about the Dutch EU vote indicates a strong motion away from the harder right and Euroscepticism, all reminiscent of relatively recent voting in NL (last year? year before?) going very much against polling forecasts.

Seen today & lifted from elsewhere (from a reliable Dutch poster whom I know well):

Don't know if this was reported before in the thread - but just as awareness really for those who think the EU is falling apart and Nexit/Frexit/Grexit whatever else is on the horizon: In the Netherlands the two pro-Nexit/anti-EU parties PVV and FVD lost in the exit-polls, pro-EU parties gained seats. The protest-vote that was overwhelming in recent provincial elections had suggested that PVV/FVD were set for major gains, the opposite happened.

One analyst suggests that the key-reason is that PVV and in particular FVD were very clear protest signals and that it mobilised the pro-EU crowd to make sure a different noise was heard in the European elections. This was signified by the highest turnout for a European Election since 1989.

Another interesting element is that Frans Timmermans' party (PVDA (Dutch Labour)) all of a sudden saw a surge, this is most definitely linked to the fact that he campaigned for a pro-EU agenda in the Netherlands AND for a stronger federalisation.

I'd expect the same in FR this Sunday, after the dust settles.

Sam Russell

L1011 wrote: »

May is still the PM. If she resigns the PM role before there's a new leader, it'll be David Lidington temporarily.

Any new leader of the Tories will need a majority of the HoC to be PM.

L1011

Sam Russell wrote: »

Any new leader of the Tories need a majority of the HoC to be PM.

Well yes, there's that issue also. And it isn't guaranteed - DUP will likely want another bribe for starters.

Mezcita

Can a new PM ditch the DUP in favour of a new confidence and supply agreement with a different party?

L1011

Mezcita wrote: »

Can a new PM ditch the DUP in favour of a new confidence and supply agreement with a different party?

Yes. But there's nobody that'd give one.

trellheim

which was kind of my point re the confidence and supply . A new PM will have their numbers immediately tested and on the current arithmetic https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/


UNIONIST ( Con + DUP ) = 313 + 10 = 323.

LAB + SNP (246+35 ) = 281 + 11 Lib Dem + 11 Change UK = 303 , 10 independent = 313 + 4 welsh = 317 , 1 green - 318

So they absolutely need the DUP still ( Yes I know not all MPs will vote the party line but it balances out ) . SF's 7 would knock that number into 325 but I'm not getting into that here as without a strong majority for SOMETHING real its not going anywhere

Zubeneschamali

trellheim wrote: »

So they absolutely need the DUP still

Arlene made a very pointed comment about her billion pound bribe in her farewell statement about May:

In particular, I commend and thank the Prime Minister for her dutiful approach on national issues and her willingness to recognise Northern Ireland’s need for additional resources

That bribe will be the first order of business for the new leader.

Water John

Well Boris sets out his stall, leave in Oct, deal or no deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/24/boris-johnson-favourite-as-uk-to-have-new-pm-by-end-of-july

robinph

Water John wrote: »

Well Boris sets out his stall, leave in Oct, deal or no deal.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/may/24/boris-johnson-favourite-as-uk-to-have-new-pm-by-end-of-july

But he's still got to get parliament to agree to something, and that is no more likely with Boris than with May. He could refuse to go and ask the EU for an extension I guess, but wouldn't parliament then find a way round him if he was threatening that and there was enough "support" to ensure a crash out didn't happen.

Terence Rattigan

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Arlene made a very pointed comment about her billion pound bribe in her farewell statement about May:

In particular, I commend and thank the Prime Minister for her dutiful approach on national issues and her willingness to recognise Northern Ireland’s need for additional resources

That bribe will be the first order of business for the new leader.

Has much of that bribe been paid over so far?

nice_guy80

Borris cannot even tuck in his shirt. How could you mak e him PM?

nice_guy80

Terence Rattigan wrote: »

Has much of that bribe been paid over so far?

Yes
Only 150 million outstanding. Afaik

Zubeneschamali

robinph wrote: »

He could refuse to go and ask the EU for an extension I guess, but wouldn't parliament then find a way round him if he was threatening that

Watching how slowly and painfully Parliament navigated the maze last time, I'd say his best chance is to nod and smile at them and agree to ask for an extension and delay and delay and then at the last minute, lock the door and hide under the desk in #10.

EU gets no request for an extension, boom, Brexit by default.

Then come out and do a victory dance at the podium in Downing St for SKY News.