Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

Zubeneschamali

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Yes
Only 150 million outstanding. Afaik

Time for a new billion pound bribe, so.

Joe_ Public

I'm suspicious that Boris really wants to be PM at this particular juncture, maybe he'll think it's his one and only chance to get top job so he'll proceed on that basis, but new boss is on a hiding to nothing just as much as last boss and a part of me thinks he'll sabotage his leadership campaign by some means or other, fair or foul. Capable of doing it unwittingly too, it has to be said, even given the short time-frame involved.

Remember, leaving without a deal in place was voted down resoundingly 400-160 during the indicative voting process and Theresa May finally falling on her sword has changed nothing in any substantial way. Parliament can and will almost certainly revoke if threatened with a no deal and i dont see how there's anything Boris or anyone else who fancies the poisoned chalice of tory leadership can do to change that.

Water John

Boris wants to be PM more than anything else in the world. Always be wary of those who crave high office.

Tell me how

Water John wrote: »

Boris wants to be PM more than anything else in the world. Always be wary of those who crave high office.

Yes. But he ran away at the last opportunity when things looked more positive than they do now.
Maybe he might go for it based purely on the logic that it is hard to imagine that he gets a 3rd chance.

He is only 54. He could disappear for 4 or 5 years hoping that the dust has settled one way or another somewhat on Brexit and then make a run for it. That might coincide with Labour having had the reigns for a period and people looking for a change once again.

Water John

I think his personal life was in a bit of a wobble the last time. That caused him to pause.

brickster69

Water John wrote: »

Boris wants to be PM more than anything else in the world. Always be wary of those who crave high office.

Johnson messed it up big style when he voted for the WA. Same as Raab, Leadsom & co.

MrMusician18

Water John wrote: »

I think his personal life was in a bit of a wobble the last time. That caused him to pause.

Wobble?
His campaign was torpedoed by Gove. Gove split Johnson's base when he stabbed him in the back.

Joe_ Public

Tell me how wrote: »

Yes. But he ran away at the last opportunity when things looked more positive than they do now.
Maybe he might go for it based purely on the logic that it is hard to imagine that he gets a 3rd chance.

He is only 54. He could disappear for 4 or 5 years hoping that the dust has settled one way or another somewhat on Brexit and then make a run for it. That might coincide with Labour having had the reigns for a period and people looking for a change once again.

I'd be thinking somewhere along the same lines alright. His opening gambit today was to promise that they'd leave the EU on Oct 31 with or without a deal. That wouldn't even be within his power to deliver, even if he was to become PM. He has to win over his own party MPs before the party membership and i dont think he's going to do it like that. If i was a betting man i wouldn't be putting any of my hard earned on him to even make the last 2 at short odds.

Spanish Eyes

The front runner in these selection contests rarely reach the finish line.

Anyway despite his rep as a bumbling idiot, I reckon he is far smarter than anyone gives him credit for, and his buffoonery is designed to hide his potential. I doubt he will ever go for a crash out in the event that he is PM that is. He will inherit the poisoned chalice also, and why would it be any different for him than it was for May? Is the ERG behind him I wonder.

He may just throw everything in the air, and decide to revoke and start again under his Premiership. Dark Horse he is, despite his media portrayal.

Christy42

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The front runner in these selection contests rarely reach the finish line.

Anyway despite his rep as a bumbling idiot, I reckon he is far smarter than anyone gives him credit for, and his buffoonery is designed to hide his potential. I doubt he will ever go for a crash out in the event that he is PM that is. He will inherit the poisoned chalice also, and why would it be any different for him than it was for May? Is the ERG behind him I wonder.

He may just throw everything in the air, and decide to revoke and start again under his Premiership. Dark Horse he is, despite his media portrayal.

He is smart but May has painted the next pm into a corner. They know no deal will tank the country. Revoke/customs union will see the ravaged by the press they used to build themselves up. WA will see them fail as May did.

They have no other options.

MrMusician18

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The front runner in these selection contests rarely reach the finish line.

Anyway despite his rep as a bumbling idiot, I reckon he is far smarter than anyone gives him credit for, and his buffoonery is designed to hide his potential. I doubt he will ever go for a crash out in the event that he is PM that is. He will inherit the poisoned chalice also, and why would it be any different for him than it was for May? Is the ERG behind him I wonder.

He may just throw everything in the air, and decide to revoke and start again under his Premiership. Dark Horse he is, despite his media portrayal.

The buffoonery is for public consumption. One of the main reasons May made him foreign secretary was to keep him out of the way. All the foreign travel associated with that position meant he wasn't able to work the dinner party circuit to undermine her. If we recall, he was goading her into sacking him.

Spanish Eyes

Christy42 wrote: »

He is smart but May has painted the next pm into a corner. They know no deal will tank the country. Revoke/customs union will see the ravaged by the press they used to build themselves up. WA will see them fail as May did.

They have no other options.

The option is there to revoke and start again. Seems to be the only sensible thing to do, since as you say other options are unworkable now and will not get through Parliament anyway. The Border issue hasn't gone away either, so starting over is a definite option. The electorate/populace have been sold a pup, no information given on the implications of any decision, just soundbytes and one liners. It is pathetic.

The media will have a field day for sure if A50 is revoked, but I reckon most of the UK will breathe a sigh of relief, not least business and investment and everything in between. There is a dangerous vacuum out there now, and we know how much nature abhors that.

Spanish Eyes

MrMusician18 wrote: »

The buffoonery is for public consumption. One of the main reasons May made him foreign secretary was to keep him out of the way. All the foreign travel associated with that position meant he wasn't able to work the dinner party circuit to undermine her. If we recall, he was goading her into sacking him.

Playing politics like kids in a playground, but reported on with glee by the toxic and quite dangerous UK media. Was soon forgotten though in these days of instant news.Boris is still a buffoon but loved by everyone... NEXT!

If (and it's only if) he becomes PM, and I am not sure he really wants it right now, he will just inherit the clusterfk of the previous incumbent, so what are his choices? There are none really apart from revoke. Well I suppose he could try for concessions from EU, he could try for a ring fenced SM/CU for NI only (Arlene would love that, and the DUP is still required for C+S agreement), he could try for Norway + but that involved FOM. It is all just circular now leading back to the same thing. Nothing is working. And Johnson knows this.

I dunno, the situation is crazy alright.

Sam Russell

nice_guy80 wrote: »

Borris cannot even tuck in his shirt. How could you mak e him PM?

He is reputed to have difficulty keeping his trousers on.

WhiteMan32

With Corbyn (not surprisingly) calling on the next Conservative leader to trigger a UK General Election, what is the point unless Labour can come off the fence and clearly back either leaving or remaining in the EU. Perhaps when the results of yesterday's poll are revealed on Sunday evening - when both of the main UK parties are expected to suffer severe losses - that the main opposition party will finally do the right thing and fully back what the majority of its members have been calling for.

Sam Russell

The same options are still the same: WA (huge majority against it in the HoC); Crash out with no deal (large majority against it in the HoC); and Revoke (with or without a 2nd referendum).

The new PM has few options outside os a GE. A GE could well give Corbyn te keys to No. 10, so that will not be a preferred option.

A Dub in Glasgo

The speech from May was cringeworthy and the 'plaudits' from her 'admirers' are not far behind

https://twitter.com/ladyhaja/status/1131902729981501441?s=19

Zubeneschamali

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The media will have a field day for sure if A50 is revoked, but I reckon most of the UK will breathe a sigh of relief

The value of Sterling would go through the roof. Millions to be made.

Spanish Eyes

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

The value of Sterling would go through the roof. Millions to be made.

Probably what Farage wants anyway deep down, having reputedly made millions ahem, on the night of the referendum result. When was that again? Oh yes years ago now.

Then having cleaned up financially once more, he will be off again demanding a Real Brexit, will of the people, blah blah.

The Globe in Shakespeare's time had less drama than this. Honestly are they not mortified at their shenanigans. Obviously not, but that seems to be the way they are made, full of hubris and righteousness. Only to feather their own nests though. They don't give a damn about the people at all. AFAIS anyway.

Capt'n Midnight

L1011 wrote: »

Yes. But there's nobody that'd give one.

The SNP might for a guarantee on Independence.
After the first indyref, the deals done with the Lib Dems and the whole NI / Carson thing from 100 years ago, the promises of a referendum wouldn't be worth the paper it's on.

Enzokk

Twitter, or at least my feed, is interesting tonight. You have people commenting that you cannot but feel sorry for May crying as she announced she will be leaving her job as she is bad at it. The replies are, as expected, not great for May. But she did not shed a tear for the Windrush or the victims of Grenfell but she has tears for herself? No wonder she was able to be so friendly with Trump, two peas in a pod.

There are some comments how impressive it is that the Tories were able to self implode all by themselves without a proper opposition, the replies from the fateful (cult members?) is obviously how they have frustrated her on Brexit and made her lose her majority in Parliament. There is some magical whitewashing from both sides and rewriting going on at the moment. It is incredible to watch, it is like how Remain parties won massive amounts of council seats and the result was spun as somehow this is a message to get on with Brexit. We are going to be walked into a no-deal because there is no leadership in the UK and they are about to elect a goofy PM who will say what he needs to to become PM and will then be bound by that and the opposition who wants exactly that outcome, even if this is against the wishes of his party. The same members he said he would empower he is going to let them be hung out to dry because he wants to become PM and turn the UK into some socialist haven that will be able to function outside of the EU as they are the enemy.

What a time to be alive.

Zubeneschamali

Capt'n Midnight wrote: »

The SNP might for a guarantee on Independence.

Any party that helps the Tories (including Labour, as we can see in the Euros) will suffer the fate of the LibDems.

Except the DUP, they are the only party in Westminster who can prop up the Tories, because their voters do not care about Westminster, only about Sinn Fein, nationalists and Popery in general.

Capt'n Midnight

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The speech from May was cringeworthy and the 'plaudits' from her 'admirers' are not far behind

twitter.com/ladyhaja/status/1131902729981501441?s=19

Her legacy has to be judged by "You know what people call us? The nasty party!"

'A bloody difficult woman' with a bloody difficult job

As the longest serving Home Secretary in more than a hundred years, she rowed back on her party’s promise to reduce immigration.
...
she warned delegates at the Police Federation Conference in 2014: "If you do not change of your own accord, we will impose change upon you."

Police and Army numbers are low.

More of her legacy here Theresa May: Did she solve her seven burning injustices?
tl;dr version - No. Most got worse.

To the extent that
Poverty in the UK is 'systematic' and 'tragic', says UN special rapporteur

Capt'n Midnight

The infight for the Tory leadership won't change anything as Coveney put it
https://www.rte.ie/news/brexit/2019/0524/1051444-eu-brexit/

"This idea that a new prime minister will be a tougher negotiator and will put it up to the EU and get a much better deal for Britain? That's not how the EU works."

There's a lot of gaps in the HoC schedule over the summer so not that work will get done.

And there's the Tory Party Conference on 29th September – 2nd October 2019. With the current exit date at the end of the month.



Meanwhile over at UKIP Hookem quits as deputy UKIP leader to run for leadership
- I should clarify that's it's for the UKIP leadership.

funkey_monkey

Christy42 wrote: »

They have no other options.

Changing May's red lines opens possibilities.

Thargor

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Changing May's red lines opens possibilities.

The resulting sh1tstorm from the sight of a Boris PM signing up to anything that breaches those Red Lines would be something to see... Free movement? Accepting ECJ rulings? Contributing to the EU budget every year? Id love to watch him trying to spin that, pity Paxman retired.

reslfj

funkey_monkey wrote: »

Changing May's red lines opens possibilities.

Which possibilities ?

Lars

Tell me how

Interesting article in The Telegraph which on first glance indicates the BBC has been found guilty of being biased against Brexit.

he BBC will face sanctions and fines from its new regulator unless it ends its Brexit bias, a former Culture Secretary and architect of the Royal Charter has warned.

On paying closer attention it shows that this is the opinion of someone involved in Brexit.

John Whittingdale, a Conservative MP.....................

He warned that if the corporation's negative coverage persists MPs could "escalate" their complaints to Ofcom, which takes over regulation of the BBC in a fortnight.

Hard to see that this statement would not raise a concern about politics potentially directly interfering with the work of the press.

Mr Whittingdale, who drew up the new Royal Charter which enshrines the corporation's duty to be impartial, said: "My own impression is that the BBC is constantly looking for negatives and highlighting the challenges that arise from Brexit.

All of this is even more interesting given the view of many that the BBC (and certainly some of its staff) have been excessively pro-Brexit.

Rjd2

Tell me how wrote: »

Yes. But he ran away at the last opportunity when things looked more positive than they do now.
Maybe he might go for it based purely on the logic that it is hard to imagine that he gets a 3rd chance.

He is only 54. He could disappear for 4 or 5 years hoping that the dust has settled one way or another somewhat on Brexit and then make a run for it. That might coincide with Labour having had the reigns for a period and people looking for a change once again.

Its now or never for Johnson. In a few years its not impossible that someone more centre orientated like Cleverly, Mercer, Stewart may be more powerful then they are now. Heck someone younger could also pass him from the right of the party.

I don't see how he blows this tbh.

Could they just end the drama by letting all the most vocal Brexiteers take control of the British government? Watch them then discredit themselves out of existence. The hypocrisy will be spectacular. Better having them in power destroying the pull of their politics than being a permanent ideologically pure crowd of opportunists outside sniping for decades.

And from the utterances of leading ERG figures it is clear they're itching to throw the DUP under the bus (preferably a really big one), and end this nonsense of weakening the Englishness of Brexit in order to placate Unionists in NI. That would be a very positive development.