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Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

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  • Options
    #9512
    Anteayer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 886 ✭✭✭Anteayer


    I was just watching Beth Rigby (Sky News) analysis. She's predicting that the likelihood is a Brexiteer will take over and we are looking at a no deal Brexit and basically a mess by October.

    Her analysis is usually spot on when it comes to goings on at Westminster.


  • Options
    #9513
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,564 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    trellheim wrote: »
    OK here's my current angle : what happens to the confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP

    Nothing, it exists in name only. They have consistently voted against the government on Brexit.


  • Options
    #9514
    Dr. Bre
    Registered Users Posts: 7,597 ✭✭✭Dr. Bre


    Bring back John Major


  • Options
    #9515
    s3rtvdbwfj81ch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭s3rtvdbwfj81ch


    trellheim wrote: »
    OK here's my current angle : what happens to the confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP

    they've always said the deal is with the Tories, not TM


  • Options
    #9516
    Anteayer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 886 ✭✭✭Anteayer


    If also seems that most of the Tories see the extension as a sign of weakness in the EU's position - that they're unwilling to really pull the plug on a member, so they feel they've leverage to hammer the European position, particularly due to the change of commission.

    I think they're over estimating their leverage but it remains to be seen. Who knows what could happen at this stage.

    Until I see the make-up of the EP, it's very hard to predict how strong or weak the EU might be.


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    #9517
    LuckyLloyd
    Registered Users Posts: 36,261 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    This is what I see happening:

    - Johnson elected next PM
    - spends a couple of weeks making grand galvanising statements and talking tough about renegotiation / No Deal
    - calls an election in the hope he can beat Corbyn

    If Johnson wins that election, probably No Deal. If Corbyn wins, probably some sort of permanent Customs Union type exit.


  • Options
    #9518
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,911 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    trellheim wrote: »
    OK here's my current angle : what happens to the confidence and supply arrangement with the DUP


    Used until they arent useful and ultimately thrown aside under the guise that it was Maybot who signed the confidence and supply so the new leader isnt bound to it


  • Options
    #9519
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,911 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    Millie Delightful Molding wrote: »
    they've always said the deal is with the Tories, not TM


    But what do the tories and more importantly hardcore brexiteers think? Was the deal with May or the Party? My bet is the former.


  • Options
    #9520
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,564 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    This is what I see happening:

    - Johnson elected next PM
    - spends a couple of weeks making grand galvanising statements and talking tough about renegotiation / No Deal
    - calls an election in the hope he can beat Corbyn

    If Johnson wins that election, probably No Deal. If Corbyn wins, probably some sort of permanent Customs Union type exit.

    Can't see the Tories calling a GE. There is simply too much risk for them. Brexit Party, a resurgent Lib Dems, SNP in Scotland, a split Tory party. A massive gamble.

    If the EU elections are the disaster they are forecasted to be, then the only way out is to go full on Brexit and see if that can strip BP if their allure. But moving a GE when they haven't done anything makes no sense.


  • Options
    #9521
    Anteayer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 886 ✭✭✭Anteayer


    It's very hard to know. You could also end up with some ghastly love affair between Trump and Boris Johnson in a way that never emerged with May.

    If that happens, you could end up with a hell of a mess for the next couple of years.


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    #9522
    s3rtvdbwfj81ch
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,691 ✭✭✭s3rtvdbwfj81ch


    LuckyLloyd wrote: »
    This is what I see happening:

    - Johnson elected next PM

    so you reckon he'll make the 2 horse race?

    I have my doubts about that tbh


  • Options
    #9523
    ongarite
    Registered Users Posts: 8,226 ✭✭✭ongarite


    Anteayer wrote: »
    I was just watching Beth Rigby (Sky News) analysis. She's predicting that the likelihood is a Brexiteer will take over and we are looking at a no deal Brexit and basically a mess by October.

    Her analysis is usually spot on when it comes to goings on at Westminster.

    I fail to see how it will get through HoC?
    If every Tory+ DUP voters for a No Dealt Brexit, but that's not going to happen.
    There are enough Tories that would vote against it as seen weeks ago, going against the party whip in key votes.

    HoC is paralyzed by lack of options.
    Razor thin minority government afraid of a GE and enough opposition to Brexit to stop a crash out.


  • Options
    #9524
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,564 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    Millie Delightful Molding wrote: »
    so you reckon he'll make the 2 horse race?

    I have my doubts about that tbh

    I think that many MP's might give their vote for him on the basis that that is the will of the people (or at least the membership). To deny him a shot at the election of a leader would not go down well with many Tory members.


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    #9525
    Anteayer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 886 ✭✭✭Anteayer


    It could get through if they whip up enough hysterical jingoism. May was a dogmatic and technocratic leader. She certainly wasn't charismatic. If she's replaced by a cheerleader for Brexit, the dynamic could change very dramatically.

    It's where you could get into a complete mess very similar to Trump.


  • Options
    #9526
    20silkcut
    Registered Users Posts: 2,567 ✭✭✭20silkcut


    Anteayer wrote: »
    If also seems that most of the Tories see the extension as a sign of weakness in the EU's position - that they're unwilling to really pull the plug on a member, so they feel they've leverage to hammer the European position, particularly due to the change of commission.

    I think they're over estimating their leverage but it remains to be seen. Who knows what could happen at this stage.

    Until I see the make-up of the EP, it's very hard to predict how strong or weak the EU might be.


    Any compromise by the EU will destroy the EU project. Which is what the brexiteers want. They don’t just want to leave the EU they want to destroy it.
    If the EU start compromising then it’s every man for himself. Not going to happen. Most Europeans would rather a hard brexit than to see the EU fall apart.


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    #9527
    Anteayer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 886 ✭✭✭Anteayer


    Yeah that's quite possible. The EU is in a fairly precarious position at the moment. I still think there's a strong possibility that we end up with a different EU, possibly focused on the Eurozone with many of the former Eastern Bloc states and other Eurosceptics just left behind.

    I'm waiting until the makeup of the EP is clear before I would draw any conclusions about what's likely to happen.

    What's worrying me is the French opinion polls. Looks like Le Pen's group are going to have largest tranche of French seats. Although, French opinion polling can be somewhat difficult to read sometimes.


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    #9528
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,624 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    martingriff wrote: »
    In fairness to Cameron he said as an election promise he would have the referendum and was against leaving. He lived up to the promise and I respect him for leaving and let someone else to bring it forward as he did not want to leave.

    You never hold a referendum unless you need an answer to a question that needs to be resolved or you are looking to change the status quo. Cameron decided to hold a referendum and then campaign for the status quo when the status quo was crap for most people. He is the second worst PM at the moment in history who laid the foundations for the worst PM to take over and possibly even the second worst to follow her. Can anybody remember any accomplishments of his government?

    Roanmore wrote: »
    Add in Ed Miliband, Tim Farron and now Corbyn who has shown no Leadership on Brexit and you have an awful bunch of politicians.
    devnull wrote: »
    If only Ed's brother won the Labour leadership.....

    In hindsight Ed wasn't that bad. He got stitched up by the papers, what's new for Labour, and the same threat the Leave campaign used to win. Cameron pushed the line that a vote for Labour is a vote for the SNP as it looked like they would need to be in coalition with the SNP to govern. That same fear of having a foreigner, and let's be honest for some people the SNP is foreign, will have control over them scared them to vote for the Conservatives. Add in the absolute dimwitted idea of the Brexit referendum and the collapse of the Libdems, due to his policies, it was a perfect storm against Labour in the 2015 general election.

    You can see by the fact that some of his policies was borrowed by the current government to know he had the right idea. But the circumstances just seemed to conspire against him at the wrong time.
    Leroy42 wrote: »
    Nothing, it exists in name only. They have consistently voted against the government on Brexit.


    I don't believe Brexit was in the agreement for their votes though. They would vote with the government on finance bills but the rest was on a case by case basis if I recall.


  • Options
    #9529
    farmchoice
    Registered Users Posts: 1,026 ✭✭✭farmchoice


    lets assume Boris gets the job, or for that matter Gove, leadsom or Rabb.
    they are going to have to take a hard brexit position and they will campaign on the basis of re-negotiating the WA and in the process having all their cake and eating it too, or failing that no deal, a threat they assure us will bring the EU to heel so dont worry its cake and cake time.


    now they know this is BS and the EU knows its BS, remember they have stepped down all no deal planning and even if they take that as as their ultimate position they wont be in a position to re start it until at least the start of September far far too late in the day.

    add to that parliamentary arithmetic remains the same so it hardly matters what they agree or dont agree they wont get it passed.


    so what to do. Boris doesn't give a damn about brexit all he wants is to be PM. so initially he will be happy to use it to get to be leader of the tories, and then PM. he then needs to immediately get off the berxit hook and do it without an election or he will be one of the shortest lived PMs in recent history.

    here is what i think might happen.
    Boris wins tory leadership election, talks the talk, heads off to Brussels comes back with F.All but spins it as best he can. says he believes it is the only deal available for the UK (i predict he will quote Michael Collins, ''the freedom to achieve freedom). BUT he now believes as a democrat it is only fair that all the people have a say, he believed in the first referendum and he believes now in another due to the time lapse and the mess his predecessor PM May and labour made of the whole thing ( this makes no sense what so ever but sure no harm blame her/them for everything) and unlike his predecessor PM cameron he will stick around no matter what the result.
    this time next year a solid 4 years after the first vote a second referendum will go 58/42 remain. Boris says he will work to reform the EU from within, and honor the vote of the people as he did to the best of his ability first time around.


    unlike May he will have the backing of the Tory party grass roots and as he is just as big a charlatan as ress mogg, bravermann, bridgin and the rest he will be well able for them.
    plus boyos like that often only get one chance to put the knife in, after that they begin to be seen for what they are.
    Brexit goes back to being what it was before and Boris resigns after he calles the president of china the Kung foo panda or chop suey or something.



    whatever happens boris will not want to go down with the brexit ship and even he has the brains to see what happened to his two predecessors.
    no deal is easy to say now but only a zealot would actually think its a plausible solution and Boris believes in nothing only Boris and no deal would be the end of PM Boris in double quick time, even quicker than no brexit Boris.


  • Options
    #9530
    Anteayer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 886 ✭✭✭Anteayer


    Is there any politician in the UK who isn't "stitched up by the papers." Most of the time, what's said in the tabloids is of FAR more significance than what's said in parliament. They've an extremely unusual situation with a "fourth estate" that doesn't just comment and analyse but actually is a full blown political operator, often far more powerful than any UK political party.


  • Options
    #9531
    LuckyLloyd
    Registered Users Posts: 36,261 ✭✭✭✭LuckyLloyd


    Millie Delightful Molding wrote: »
    so you reckon he'll make the 2 horse race?

    I have my doubts about that tbh

    I do indeed. The MPs don't like him, but they understand where the membership are and they also fear Corbyn as an existential threat. I feel he has momentum behind him right now.


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    #9532
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,624 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    As for May leaving, good riddance. Ian Dunt points out in the below article the similarities of her entrance and exit.

    May ends her premiership as she started it: With the greatest lie of all
    Theresa May announced her resignation as prime minister in the same way she began her term: with the expression of political values she did precisely nothing to promote.

    It was a bookend speech, almost identical in its vision to the one she made when she first entered Downing Street. She spoke about the need to find "compromise" on Brexit. She said the referendum was a call for "profound change in our country". She outlined her supposed accomplishments in national finance, helping first-time buyers and the environment. She emphasised a "decent, moderate and patriotic Conservative government, on the common ground of British politics". And she called for a country that could "stand together".

    Not a single word of it was true. The two bookend speeches bore no resemblance at all to the content of her premiership.

    This speaks volumes, her speech at the outset of her time in charge was also littered with wonderful words about how she would make the country a better place for everyone, then she proceeded to do nothing to ensure this. She decided to end freedom movement with Brexit and almost everything that is happening is as a result of that now. That was not forced on her by anyone or the referendum result, that was her choice.

    Her treatment of the Windrush generation to the way she disparaged the opposition when she could, palm off the SNP as if they are nothing more than an irritating fly and the way they treated EU Citizens makes me feel nothing for her. For only the second time do I feel nothing for the personal feelings of a politician. The other time was when Thatcher passed away, I couldn't even muster a sympathetic feeling for her family and neither will I for May.

    As for the contenders, I think Nicola Sturgeon says it best when it comes to Boris Johnson,

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1131859880405610496

    Let us not forget, we have a deadline that is fast approaching again and we are again watching the UK waste our time and making things worse for us here as we depend on a good trading relationship with them.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1131879400721571842


  • Options
    #9533
    Nody
    Moderators, Category Moderators, Arts Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 18,279 CMod ✭✭✭✭Nody


    ongarite wrote: »
    I fail to see how it will get through HoC?
    If every Tory+ DUP voters for a No Dealt Brexit, but that's not going to happen.
    There are enough Tories that would vote against it as seen weeks ago, going against the party whip in key votes.

    HoC is paralyzed by lack of options.
    Razor thin minority government afraid of a GE and enough opposition to Brexit to stop a crash out.
    You have forgotten crash out is the default option; if HoC can't agree on what they actually want, and get the government & EU to agree to it, they will crash out. And that's the crux of the issue, there is no majority in HoC for what they want and only want they don't want (crash out); hence if there is no extension (unlikely to be approved as EU is ready for the crash out as far as possible) then they are out.


  • Options
    #9534
    Enzokk
    Registered Users Posts: 5,624 ✭✭✭Enzokk


    farmchoice wrote: »
    lets assume Boris gets the job, or for that matter Gove, leadsom or Rabb.
    they are going to have to take a hard brexit position and they will campaign on the basis of re-negotiating the WA and in the process having all their cake and eating it too, or failing that no deal, a threat they assure us will bring the EU to heel so dont worry its cake and cake time.


    now they know this is BS and the EU knows its BS, remember they have stepped down all no deal planning and even if they take that as as their ultimate position they wont be in a position to re start it until at least the start of September far far too late in the day.

    add to that parliamentary arithmetic remains the same so it hardly matters what they agree or dont agree they wont get it passed.


    so what to do. Boris doesn't give a damn about brexit all he wants is to be PM. so initially he will be happy to use it to get to be leader of the tories, and then PM. he then needs to immediately get off the berxit hook and do it without an election or he will be one of the shortest lived PMs in recent history.

    here is what i think might happen.
    Boris wins tory leadership election, talks the talk, heads off to Brussels comes back with F.All but spins it as best he can. says he believes it is the only deal available for the UK (i predict he will quote Michael Collins, ''the freedom to achieve freedom). BUT he now believes as a democrat it is only fair that all the people have a say, he believed in the first referendum and he believes now in another due to the time lapse and the mess his predecessor PM May and labour made of the whole thing ( this makes no sense what so ever but sure no harm blame her/them for everything) and unlike his predecessor PM cameron he will stick around no matter what the result.
    this time next year a solid 4 years after the first vote a second referendum will go 58/42 remain. Boris says he will work to reform the EU from within, and honor the vote of the people as he did to the best of his ability first time around.


    unlike May he will have the backing of the Tory party grass roots and as he is just as big a charlatan as ress mogg, bravermann, bridgin and the rest he will be well able for them.
    plus boyos like that often only get one chance to put the knife in, after that they begin to be seen for what they are.
    Brexit goes back to being what it was before and Boris resigns after he calles the president of china the Kung foo panda or chop suey or something.



    whatever happens boris will not want to go down with the brexit ship and even he has the brains to see what happened to his two predecessors.
    no deal is easy to say now but only a zealot would actually think its a plausible solution and Boris believes in nothing only Boris and no deal would be the end of PM Boris in double quick time, even quicker than no brexit Boris.


    Interesting, except the Tory Party members are vehemently in favour of no-deal so he will have to tread carefully if he doesn't want to upset those that made him PM. They will not be the more moderate, relatively, Conservative voters in a General Election.

    Anteayer wrote: »
    Is there any politician in the UK who isn't "stitched up by the papers." Most of the time, what's said in the tabloids is of FAR more significance than what's said in parliament. They've an extremely unusual situation with a "fourth estate" that doesn't just comment and analyse but actually is a full blown political operator, often far more powerful than any UK political party.


    That is true, but the photo of Milliband eating the bacon sandwich was a stitch up of epic proportions and that photo was on the front pages of the papers. That meant even if you didn't read the paper you saw the photo and it had the effect it was intended, to take away his credibility when you think of a leader.

    That is not to add the story about his father, who is dead already and cannot defend himself, hating the UK. How can you vote for someone who's father hated the country? What if he feels the same?


  • Options
    #9535
    Anteayer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 886 ✭✭✭Anteayer


    Well the likelihood is that you'll end up with a "tumble out" rather than an agressive crash out.

    Ultimately, the EU is governed by codified law and there's only much they can do to keep stretching those to allow this mess to go on and on. So eventually the UK will fall out through indecision.


  • Options
    #9536
    martingriff
    Registered Users Posts: 10,793 ✭✭✭✭martingriff


    Just wondering given that she has said she is leaving and has given a date why us the leadership race not starting until the 7th.


  • Options
    #9537
    Anteayer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 886 ✭✭✭Anteayer


    Enzokk wrote: »
    As for May leaving, good riddance. Ian Dunt points out in the below article the similarities of her entrance and exit.

    May ends her premiership as she started it: With the greatest lie of all



    This speaks volumes, her speech at the outset of her time in charge was also littered with wonderful words about how she would make the country a better place for everyone, then she proceeded to do nothing to ensure this. She decided to end freedom movement with Brexit and almost everything that is happening is as a result of that now. That was not forced on her by anyone or the referendum result, that was her choice.

    Her treatment of the Windrush generation to the way she disparaged the opposition when she could, palm off the SNP as if they are nothing more than an irritating fly and the way they treated EU Citizens makes me feel nothing for her. For only the second time do I feel nothing for the personal feelings of a politician. The other time was when Thatcher passed away, I couldn't even muster a sympathetic feeling for her family and neither will I for May.

    As for the contenders, I think Nicola Sturgeon says it best when it comes to Boris Johnson,

    https://twitter.com/NicolaSturgeon/status/1131859880405610496

    Let us not forget, we have a deadline that is fast approaching again and we are again watching the UK waste our time and making things worse for us here as we depend on a good trading relationship with them.

    https://twitter.com/PippaCrerar/status/1131879400721571842

    Actually with Thatcher, at least you could completely disagree with her and she had a firm position. I mean I find Thatcher's politics extremely obnoxious and I can clearly say that but as least you know where she stood and could make a decision not to support her.

    Thatcher was an extremely tough leader and I don't think she would have tolerated the kind of backstabbing that went on around May. Disloyal ministers or backbenchers were given severe handbaggings.

    With May it was a weird combination of dogma and indecision. She was trying to be all things to all people and spoke in rhetoric like "Brexit means Brexit" or 'The will of the people". Nobody knew what any of those statements meant, I don't think she even knew what they meant.

    Then you'd all the passive agressive policies like the Hostile Environment. That was utterly awful. You could also call it institutionalised xenophobia.


  • Options
    #9538
    brick tamland
    Registered Users Posts: 1,449 ✭✭✭brick tamland


    ongarite wrote: »
    I fail to see how it will get through HoC?
    If every Tory+ DUP voters for a No Dealt Brexit, but that's not going to happen.
    There are enough Tories that would vote against it as seen weeks ago, going against the party whip in key votes.

    HoC is paralyzed by lack of options.
    Razor thin minority government afraid of a GE and enough opposition to Brexit to stop a crash out.

    While I agree it wont pass, does it have to get thru the HOC though. Say Marcron gets his way and no more extensions are given and come October its The deal or crash out, neither would pass (still I imagine) and they could just crash out no matter what the HOC does


  • Options
    #9539
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 68,125 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    brick tamland wrote: »
    While I agree it wont pass, does it have to get thru the HOC though. Say Marcron gets his way and no more extensions are given and come October its The deal or crash out, neither would pass (still I imagine) and they could just crash out no matter what the HOC does


    there is NO such thing as a vote for No Deal.
    to avoid that they have to vote for the Deal or to revoke Article 50.


  • Options
    #9540
    Anteayer
    Closed Accounts Posts: 886 ✭✭✭Anteayer


    She's right on the quote that "compromise is not a dirty word".

    The UK is completely unwilling to accept that a 48:52 vote requires compromise, particularly when it's also extremely regionally fractured. They're ripping themselves apart on this issue.


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    #9541
    Leroy42
    Registered Users Posts: 15,564 ✭✭✭✭Leroy42


    She has no understanding of what compromise actually means. To her, based on the last few months, compromise means other people agreeing with your position even if they don't like it.

    As Ian Dunt points out, the moment she placed ending of FoM as the number one objective everything else was simply a result of that decision. And she didn't have to take that position, it was her decision. But she not only took it, she reveled in it. She was going to use EU citizens as bargaining chips. She allowed the sh1tshow of EU citizens being denied a vote in yesterdays elections.

    She tried to split the EU by individually meeting the various EU leaders, whilst at the same time not sticking to any of her agreements with them. If she was really about compromise then she would have sold the WA as such. Instead, not wanting to be seen to have compromised, she tried to persuade everyone that she had actually won, when in reality any sane person could she that she had compromised some areas in order to get a deal. This is normal but she couldn't bring her to say it and so ended up annoying those that wanted the unicorns and everyone else as they could see she was lying.


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