Brexit discussion thread VIII (Please read OP before posting)

ancapailldorcha

This is the eighth incarnation of our Brexit discussion thread.

As we are approaching the critical end of March 2019 period, please bear the following in mind before posting:

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blanch152

A good day for Ireland.

- Malthouse option killed.

- UK plans for no-deal Brexit exposed as foolish.

- No-deal Brexit voted down convincingly

- May's deal, soft Brexit and withdrawal of Article 50 still on the table

Duane Dibbley

Sardonicat wrote: »

With a hard border?

If there is no deal agreed on the 29th and EU countries press the eject button then yes there will need to be a border.

We have all known this for years

maccored

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

If there is no deal agreed on the 29th and EU countries press the eject button then yes there will need to be a border.

We have all known this for years

Feared it for years, more like. Who gives a toss about the GFA, eh?

briany

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

The EU has been looking after Ireland’s interests. We had along with 26 other EU states , nearly 3 years to prepare for Brexit. What makes you think Ireland will prepare during the extension I’d we were incompetent not to start preparing before.

Kicking the can down the road is not a solution.

If the UK don’t have a sound plan by the 29th then move on as an EU27.

Well, the other 26 can move on because they're relatively insulated. We, in Ireland, will actually have to deal with this proper frontier that has sprung up and has to be enforced, causing disruption to business and people and communities, and diminishing cross-community trust.

All I'm saying is, if nothing else, a few extra months to steel ourselves against that chaos, to bolster ongoing preparations, would be a good thing.

Not to forget that in the UK, May is beginning to say that Brexit is being lost due to the intractability of parliament, and cross-bench movements are coalescing to stop Brexit altogether. It might be annoying to have to listen to the UK bellyache for another two years, say, but that would be 2 years well spent if the UK stayed in the EU by the end of it.

Sardonicat

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

Sardonicat wrote: »

With a hard border?

If there is no deal agreed on the 29th and EU countries press the eject button then yes there will need to be a border.

We have all known this for years

We do know it. But why would anyone want it and the consequences that come with it?

Duane Dibbley

Sardonicat wrote: »

We do know it. But why would anyone want it and the consequences that come with it?

It’s a fact of leaving the EU and the Customs Union.The UK and EU knew this from day 1. Actions have consequences.

Duane Dibbley

briany wrote: »

Well, the other 26 can move on because they're relatively insulated. We, in Ireland, will actually have to deal with this proper frontier that has sprung up and has to be enforced, causing disruption to business and people and communities, and diminishing cross-community trust.

All I'm saying is, if nothing else, a few extra months to steel ourselves against that chaos, to bolster ongoing preparations, would be a good thing.

Not to forget that in the UK, May is beginning to say that Brexit is being lost due to the intractability of parliament, and cross-bench movements are coalescing to stop Brexit altogether. It might be annoying to have to listen to the UK bellyache for another two years, say, but that would be 2 years well spent if the UK stayed in the EU by the end of it.

I would agree that there should be some type of NoDeal implementation period after the 29th. We have had nearly 3 years to prepare and if we haven’t then that is the incompetence of our Govenment.

I don’t agree that an extension is agreed only to watch the UK going around in circles.

In that case, All pissed off EU countries can trigger A50s knowing there are no deadlines and keep threats to get what they want from Brussels.

Shelga

Voxpop on Newsnight, they’ve gone to the strongly Leave voting area of Port Talbot, what a surprise!

Sardonicat

Duane Dibbley wrote: »

Sardonicat wrote: »

We do know it. But why would anyone want it and the consequences that come with it?

It’s a fact of leaving the EU and the Customs Union.The UK and EU knew this from day 1. Actions have consequences.

I'm not disputing the facts. I'm fully aware of them. I'm wondering why ANYONE who lives anywhere on this island would want this to happen. Why should Ireland suffer the consequences of the UK's actions?

FrancieBrady

Sardonicat wrote: »

I'm not disputing the facts. I'm fully aware of them. I'm wondering why ANYONE who lives anywhere on this island would want this to happen. Why should Ireland suffer the consequences of the UK's actions?

We will suffer them anyway. The 'backstop mitigates the effects of Brexit (for NI too)
What else could we have done?

prawnsambo

Sardonicat wrote: »

We do know it. But why would anyone want it and the consequences that come with it?

Nobody wants it. The UK tried to hold it hostage in the negotiations but we and the EU saw that coming a mile off and set the sequencing so that the backstop had to be agreed before anything else. And they still kept trying up to this morning with their tariff announcements and 'open border' nonsense. Which Michael Gove managed to blow a hole in this afternoon by admitting that it 'might be' illegal.

Duane Dibbley

Sardonicat wrote: »

I'm not disputing the facts. I'm fully aware of them. I'm wondering why ANYONE who lives anywhere on this island would want this to happen. Why should Ireland suffer the consequences of the UK's actions?

I don’t think anyone wants it to happen but it’s a fact when one side is in the EU and One side is removed against there will. (NI voted remain)

It will be for NI to decide what they want to do if there is a no deal brexit.

Or the Republic to decide on EU membership in the event of a no deal.

Mr.Nice Guy

BBC love bringing on extremist commentators with no grasp of the details. Lionel Shriver on Newsnight now. Ruth Dudley Edwards on BBC Talkback earlier. Fury over facts. Ratings over reason.

Infini

blanch152 wrote: »

A good day for Ireland.

- Malthouse option killed.

- UK plans for no-deal Brexit exposed as foolish.

- No-deal Brexit voted down convincingly

- May's deal, soft Brexit and withdrawal of Article 50 still on the table

I'd be more accurate to say that no deal as a choice for parliment is dead but not a default crash no deal as of yet. It's the accidental crash out scenario if paralysis reigns.

The only options left are

Passing May's deal on a 3rd attempt but unlikely since its been defeated by significant margins and no further clarifications will be made. It's basically unpalatable at this stage and it doesnt regain any control.

Asking for an extention of A50 from Europe but this is also looking unlikely. They need a good reason for one to be granted and the EU have been clear enough: if they dont come up with a credible reason they wont allow it they'd rather be rid of them come March 29th than allow this farce to continue. They want a strait answer to be honest and its either leave, take the deal on the table at the last minute or just abandon this and they want an answer in 2 weeks or its the boot.

A complete climbdown on Brexit: Undeliverable, Unaffordable and Unworkable. They basically have to cancel by withdrawing A50 and admit defeat on the issue and go back to the people. The only ones pushing it are liar's, cheates and scammers it's not worth letting them destroy their country for a vainglorious project with no benefit.

To tell the Truth if they ever want a Brexit they can live with to be honest they need to basically lose Northern Ireland. That's the irony it's the fact they cant come to a workable arrangment and allowed THE party of headbangers into government that cost them as likely the agreement would have had a better chance of passing if NI was treated differently or if they even had a Border Poll.

branie2

Would a border be a disaster?

Strazdas

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

BBC love bringing on extremist commentators with no grasp of the details. Lionel Shriver on Newsnight now. Ruth Dudley Edwards on BBC Talkback earlier. Fury over facts. Ratings over reason.

Yes, I was watching her. Some American talking about Leave voters being "betrayed" and the likes and there is no such thing as a hard or soft Brexit. It's bizarre to watch a supposedly intelligent person coming out with this populist claptrap.

Necro

Is it wrong that I have an extremely morbid curiosity to see how a no deal Brexit would pan out? I can't help being fascinated by the lunacy of it all

Duane Dibbley

branie2 wrote: »

Would a border be a disaster?

People have different interpretations of what a border is.

Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, I was watching her. Some American talking about Leave voters being "betrayed" and the likes and there is no such thing as a hard or soft Brexit. It's bizarre to watch a supposedly intelligent person coming out with this populist claptrap.

I think what she said was the terms hard and soft didn’t exist during the campaign, there was only brexit and all the different nuances only arrived later. Nothing wrong with that surely. Thought it was an interesting discussion. All these people saying they’re not getting the brexit they were promised but what exactly is it anyway? Campbell was spot on, it never existed, a fantasy, a figment of people with dangerous imaginations.

Strazdas

branie2 wrote: »

Would a border be a disaster?

A border would be very unpopular if it was imposed on any two neighbouring regions in the EU and the extra dimension of NI nationalists being Irish citizens ramps it up even further.

Mr.Nice Guy

Strazdas wrote: »

Yes, I was watching her. Some American talking about Leave voters being "betrayed" and the likes and there is no such thing as a hard or soft Brexit. It's bizarre to watch a supposedly intelligent person coming out with this populist claptrap.

Yes, it was such a foolish point on her part. The reason there was no such talk was because Leavers deliberately ensured Brexit was all things to all people. No details were needed when vague fantasy and slogans could fill the gap. That was never going to last once fantasy collided with reality and they had to try to figure out how to put it into practice.

The Brexit-supporting Port Talbot chap typified the problem, blaming everyone from May to the Scottish Nationalists for ruining Brexit. The reporter concluded her piece saying people were angry their Brexit was being 'swept away'. It hasn't been swept away because it was never real enough to be swept away. It was a mirage and a con all along.

Sadly I don't think the penny will ever drop that their vision of Brexit could never have worked.

golfball37

Strazdas wrote: »

A border would be very unpopular if it was imposed on any two neighbouring regions in the EU and the extra dimension of NI nationalists being Irish citizens ramps it up even further.

But the uk will not be in the EU? Britain needs to get on with leaving as per default legal position on March 29th and we need to batten down the hatches and work smarter. Instead of blaming them for making a decision we couldn’t countenance perhaps ask why are we so in hoc and tied to the EUs fortunes?

BLIZZARD7

branie2 wrote: »

Would a border be a disaster?

A hard border, yes 100%. Reignition of paramilitary activity and a collapse of the GFA. An Economic nightmare for both the UK and Ireland too.

I don't think a softer border' is something easily achieved in reality , it would be unchartered territory.

Strazdas

Joe_ Public wrote: »

I think what she said was the terms hard and soft didn’t exist during the campaign, there was only brexit and all the different nuances only arrived later. Nothing wrong with that surely. Thought it was an interesting discussion. All these people saying they’re not getting the brexit they were promised but what exactly is it anyway? Campbell was spot on, it never existed, a fantasy, a figment of people with dangerous imaginations.

People voted to "leave the EU" but nobody can agree on what happens the day after. This is where it falls down.

It would be like you announcing you were quitting your job, selling your home and moving to Mali for good. "Moving to Mali to do what?" and you reply "I don't know, I just know I'm moving to Mali on March 29th".

Strazdas

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

Yes, it was such a foolish point on her part. The reason there was no such talk was because Leavers deliberately ensured Brexit was all things to all people. No details were needed when vague fantasy and slogans could fill the gap. That was never going to last once fantasy collided with reality and they had to try to figure out how to put it into practice.

The Brexit-supporting Port Talbot chap typified the problem, blaming everyone from May to the Scottish Nationalists for ruining Brexit. The reporter concluded her piece saying people were angry their Brexit was being 'swept away'. It hasn't been swept away because it was never real enough to be swept away. It was a mirage and a con all along.

Sadly I don't think the penny will ever drop that their vision of Brexit could never have worked.

Campbell puts his finger on it when he says people voted for a vague, abstract fantasy ie. something undeliverable.

Problem is not many people in Britain can admit this.

Interesting though to hear Emily M. hint at a potential Chilcott Inquiry into Brexit.

Joe_ Public

Strazdas wrote: »

People voted to "leave the EU" but nobody can agree on what happens the day after. This is where it falls down.

It would be like you announcing you were quitting your job, selling your home and moving to Mali for good. "Moving to Mali to do what?" and you reply "I don't know, I just know I'm moving to Mali on March 29th".

Yeah exactly, sure we know it was a vote never meant to be won in the first place, Boris sitting up late the night before writing his magnanimous but heroic losers speech, then having to cobble a new one together when the unthinkable came to pass. Whoever needed long term plans on that basis?

Strazdas

golfball37 wrote: »

But the uk will not be in the EU? Britain needs to get on with leaving as per default legal position on March 29th and we need to batten down the hatches and work smarter. Instead of blaming them for making a decision we couldn’t countenance perhaps ask why are we so in hoc and tied to the EUs fortunes?

If the UK leaving creates a potential problem at the Irish border and may be in breach of the GFA, it might suggest that Cameron's referendum should never even have been held - he may have put something to referendum that breaches a major peace agreement.

cryptocurrency

So article 62 of the Vienna Convention makes the withdrawal agreement worthless. If this is shown as the case you may see the ERG come on board knowing the WA is 500 pages of Andrex.

cryptocurrency

blanch152 wrote: »

A good day for Ireland.

- Malthouse option killed.

- UK plans for no-deal Brexit exposed as foolish.

- No-deal Brexit voted down convincingly

- May's deal, soft Brexit and withdrawal of Article 50 still on the table

This article 62 talk is a game changer...they are saying the ERG have their legal people all over it now.

BonnieSituation

cryptocurrency wrote: »

This article 62 talk is a game changer...they are saying the ERG have their legal people all over it now.

The finest legal minds in all of Christendom surely.

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I was busy earlier so it was a pleasure to read through the last thread "as live" but what are we going to do when this all finally ends?

Keep up the good work all! Including the mods. Tonight must have been a 'mare.