Strong Winds, Heavy Rain Wintry Weather : Sat 2nd to Mon 4th March 2019

john why

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Rain here now near Dublin Airport as the front is clearing in to the Irish sea now.

Looks like GL got it wrong again.

MidMan25

john why wrote: »

Looks like GL got it wrong again.

Kutebride

Well that was eventful drive on the M6 from Galway to Meath between 4-6pm. All good, arrived safely to destination.

Gaoth Laidir

The most horrible and worthless covering of wet slush I can remember here. I'd have much preferred if it had stayed raining as walking around now is just rotten with deep puddles of slush.

Loughc

sryanbruen wrote: »

Had some great crack in the park with sliding down the hills and snowball fights, was the most fun I had in a good while!

Well needed after that dreadful winter. Way to go Spring for delivering again this year!

Kermit.de.frog

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

The most horrible and worthless covering of wet slush I can remember here. I'd have much preferred if it had stayed raining as walking around now is just rotten with deep puddles of slush.

Ok grumpy

Amirani

Kutebride wrote: »

Well that was eventful drive on the M6 from Galway to Meath between 4-6pm. All good, arrived safely to destination.

M7 was nuts. Bailed off at Newbridge and went the back roads through Athgarvan back to N7.

Assetbacked

Wow, thanks Met Éireann for giving a warning twenty six minutes before it is due to happen, especially something like an ice warning! How could they not have issued this warning or predicted it earlier?

m17

Naas road 03/03/19

Gaoth Laidir

john why wrote: »

Looks like GL got it wrong again.

Yep, and what?

Kermit.de.frog

These situations are very marginal and difficult to predict for anyone.

Could easily have gone the other way today as it has done on a couple of these frontal occasions this winter.

sryanbruen

Loughc wrote: »

Well needed after that dreadful winter. Way to go Spring for delivering again this year!

I got my fix of snow in the mountains on 2 February so this was a huge bonus :P .

My third favourite snow event of the decade perhaps after late 2010 and Feb/Mar 2018.

The daffs certainly weren't happy.

https://twitter.com/SnowbieWx/status/1102289844036952070

irishrover99

john why wrote: »

Looks like GL got it wrong again.

I think that thread for parameters for guaranteed snow needs to be removed from the sticky thread section 😀.

john why

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

These situations are very marginal and difficult to predict for anyone.

Could easily have gone the other way today as it has done on a couple of these frontal occasions this winter.

In the frog we trust

Pwindedd

Well a 1 hr trip to Garristown and back just took 2 and a half - When I left it was raining.... And then Ninja snow ! Only got one pic when I could stop plus a few hairasing moments when I couldn't stop

MidMan25

Tough one to predict and can understand how people's opinions differed on potential. Important to respect other's predictions though.

SleetAndSnow

Can already see Ice on the cars here in Cork City. Gonna be a cold one.

Rebelbrowser

john why wrote: »

Looks like GL got it wrong again.

In fairness he doesn't get too many wrong all the same.

nacho libre

cnocbui wrote: »

I am officially declaring this a major snow incident.



50mm on the roof of the car

it's not proper snow, though:p Proper snow has to be dry and sourced from the north east to satisfy some posters:p
I had a feeling nature would throw up a surprise after the February's warmth

amadangomor

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

These situations are very marginal and difficult to predict for anyone.

Could easily have gone the other way today as it has done on a couple of these frontal occasions this winter.

Perhaps we need a potential threat/risk warning system, a range of outcomes to a forecast given with a worst case scenario included if extreme weather has a realistic chance of happening.

Are Met E afraid if they are not definite in their forecasts they will lose the public's confidence?

HighLine

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Not sure where this idea of snow is coming from. Certainly above 300-400 metres, but lower down it's more cold rain/maybe sleet. There's no cold to speak of and the northwesterly backedge airmass won't support the snow some are hoping for. No soundings showing anything close to low-level snow. I think Met Éireann were a little unclear when they mentioned snow above and should have said on mountains.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uqs1YXfdtGE

Mount Vesuvius

To be fair to GL, Met Eireann also initially gave snow above 300 metres, that was then changed to 200 metres and changed again. This was a tricky one. A nowcast.

Got loads of heavy snow fall myself, here near Kilcullen, kildare. Brought last year right back.

Villain

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Not sure where this idea of snow is coming from. Certainly above 300-400 metres, but lower down it's more cold rain/maybe sleet. There's no cold to speak of and the northwesterly backedge airmass won't support the snow some are hoping for. No soundings showing anything close to low-level snow. I think Met Éireann were a little unclear when they mentioned snow above and should have said on mountains.

The auld weather models do get it right it every so often

Kermit.de.frog

amadangomor wrote: »

Perhaps we need a potential threat/risk warning system, a range of outcomes to a forecast given with a worst case scenario included if extreme weather has a realistic chance of happening.

Are Met E afraid if they are not definite in their forecasts they will lose the public's confidence?

It's difficult because it's so marginal you can end up looking foolish.

I said last night the risk of snow was the biggest risk with the system but that's little more than a punt based on precarious model guidance.

That goes wrong as it could easily have and I look like a buffoon and GL gets it 100% right.

It's difficult to make a call because no one wants to be embarrassed.

Also ME are professional organisation with clients and you particularly don't want to look foolish when your livelihood depends on it!

Chris_5339762

Even the most optimistic/pessimistic of the weather models did not suggest heavy snow as early as it hit.

Dublin to Cork took me 4 1/2 hours this afternoon... left Dublin at 130pm, fine to the other side of the roadworks then deteriorated from the Curragh onwards. Crashes on the M8 meant they closed the road at the toll plaza at Portlaoise and only let traffic through when it was cleared. Then I couldn't get above 60 - 70kmh until after Cashel. One lane open with tracks to follow but that was about it.

Got south of Cashel and it turned to rain, back up to full speed again. Got down to Cork in the sun and there was a rainbow.

Gaoth Laidir

Villain wrote: »

The auld weather models do get it right it every so often

First thing this morning I checked a range of soundings for my location for this afternoon and the consensus was a snowline around 300 metres. Then I checked the 12Z as it was snowing here and this is what I got; a perfect wet snow sounding. The wbt of the lowest few hundred metres right along the 0-degree isotherm. So the models didn't get it that right at first, but still, I didn't expect it to could down quite as much. A degree here, a degree there, snow or rain, it's just not fair.

sicknotexi

Pity the snow stopped but I have to say it was fairly impressive snowfall for 3 hours. The heaviest snowfall I seen in daylight hours in a long time, including last years beast.

pad199207

Mount Vesuvius wrote: »

To be fair to GL, Met Eireann also initially gave snow above 300 metres, that was then changed to 200 metres and changed again. This was a tricky one. A nowcast.

Got loads of heavy snow fall myself, here near Kilcullen, kildare. Brought last year right back.

Yeah Kildare got the fair whack today.

Kermit.de.frog

In terms of the models and how they handled today - both ECM and Hirlam more or less spot on 48 hours in advance. Impressive handling of a setup that relied somewhat on evaporative cooling as well to cheat the other maybe slightly less than favorable atmospheric conditions. Not a notably cold air mass. So, yeah, impressive.

For Dubs you see the difference when the wind is offshore as opposed to onshore in these setups. On shore breeze and it's rain from start to finish.

Been done over so many times in this synoptic setup because the wind has not shifted off shore in time

guil

I had to drive from the Curragh to Newbridge this afternoon to collect one of the kids, it should usually take 20-30 mins round trip but took nearly 2 hours. Madness Ted.