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Strong Winds, Heavy Rain Wintry Weather : Sat 2nd to Mon 4th March 2019

  • 27-02-2019 12:15am
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Worth keeping an eye on how this Depression develops on Saturday. The Models in general have been showing it track up off the NW coast but on latest runs they have been bringing it closer to the coast and showing some strong winds , the GFS not too dissimilar to the ECM at this stage showing a swathe of strong winds across much of the country for a number of hours , showing the strongest winds atm in the W.

    More than likely warnings will be issued .


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    Most tellingly is that the ECM 12Z tracks the centre closer to the coast on the latest run with strong winds gusting 100 to 110 kph inland in places .

    Will see how this pans out one way or the other.

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Comments

  • Registered Users Posts: 13,183 ✭✭✭✭ M.T. Cranium


    Some chance also for a second interval of strong winds in the southeast by late Sunday, this one could be rapidly developing just as it arrives in Munster. Less certain than Saturday's event.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    ECM 12Z keeping the depression much further off the NW on the latest run keeping the strongest winds on the coasts and not as strong inland as earlier runs.


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    The other models getting more in line now. W, NW and N getting the strongest winds , looking like gusts of 110 to 120 kph on exposed coasts at this stage, up to about 100 kph in coastal areas and 80 to 90 more inland

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Center of the depression now much further away to the NW on the latest ECM 12Z keeping the strongest winds offshore. Blustery overland and windy on the coasts for a time but nothing too severe looking at this stage. Other models following suit, ARPEGE similar.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 517 ✭✭✭ MeTheMan


    Will this bring a lot of rain with it?


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    SW and the W getting the most.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 15,847 ✭✭✭✭ Villain


    A dirty day ahead tomorrow, thankful the worst will stay out NorthWest, Sunday looks more interesting now, a surprise bit of white stuff maybe?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭ vickers209




  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,431 ✭✭✭ Mortelaro


    Some chance also for a second interval of strong winds in the southeast by late Sunday, this one could be rapidly developing just as it arrives in Munster. Less certain than Saturday's event.

    Named storm Freya now by the UK met office
    First I heard of it was the BBC forecast at 955am,so I was surprised that there was no discussion of it here
    They actually had snow graphics on it for leinster and Scotland as well as strong winds but I presume the snow is sn error,I've not the time to look at detail now


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,277 ✭✭✭✭ Erik Black Goth


    Fecking foreigners ruining our summer. Raining here in Killarney for a change.
    :(


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  • Registered Users Posts: 5,454 ✭✭✭ Storm 10


    I know its Sky but is ME not very slow in doing anything about this Storm

    https://news.sky.com/story/danger-to-life-as-storm-freya-hits-uk-this-weekend-11651566


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,666 ✭✭✭ igCorcaigh


    Storm 10 wrote: »
    I know its Sky but is ME not very slow in doing anything about this Storm

    https://news.sky.com/story/danger-to-life-as-storm-freya-hits-uk-this-weekend-11651566

    "Danger to life", but only a yellow warning?


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,379 ✭✭✭ vickers209


    igCorcaigh wrote: »
    "Danger to life", but only a yellow warning?

    She said: "At the moment, a Met Office yellow warning is in place for strong winds across southwest England, through Wales, the Midlands into northern England.

    "This will be ugraded to an amber warning over the next 24 hours or so as forecasters pin down where the strongest winds will be.

    "Gusts of 55 to 65mph are likely, with the potential of 70 to 80mph gusts for coastal parts of Devon and Cornwall, as we as Irish Sea coasts of Wales and northwest England.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭ Bsal


    Storm Freya forecast to track over us on Sunday, looks like the south coast will get strong winds and rain



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 40,086 ✭✭✭✭ Harry Palmr


    Ladies and Gentlemen, stand down your trampolines!

    Well there goes my gardening Sunday.


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,939 ✭✭✭ goat2


    This has not been reported on lunchtime news weather forecast, would have expected it


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Blustery across the country tomorrow and very windy for a time along the W and NW.

    All eyes then on to the rapidly deepening Low off the S of Ireland on Sunday. How strong will it get and will it track closer to the coast bringing strong winds inland . The most consistent models would appear to be the ECM, EURO 4 and ARPEGE with Sundays system. As we have seen in the past these rapidly developing Lows can change direction and increase or decrease in speed quite a bit than being modelled. Will see.


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    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Donegal, Galway and Mayo
    South to southwest winds will reach mean speeds between 50 and 65 km/h at times, with gusts between 90 and 100km/h. Winds will be strongest along coasts.

    Valid: Saturday 02 March 2019 08:00 to Sunday 03 March 2019 03:00

    Issued: Friday 01 March 2019 19:00

    Updated: Friday 01 March 2019 19:00






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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Looking very wet on Sunday and models showing it turning wintry towards evening, probably sleety rain mix. Some big rainfal accumulations showing up now between here and early Monday. Might have to change the Thread Title again !


    https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1101511890532995072


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Looking quite wintry Sun night now into Mon morning with lying snow possible if somewhat wet.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    I think it might be worth renaming the thread title as I reckon it could get very wet over the weekend leading to possible warnings and looks like we could get a bit of wintry precipitation Sunday night with a possible freeze in places so could lead to some dangerous driving conditions and possible warnings for Ice into Monday morning. The LP crossing the country on Sunday with the strongest winds off or along the S, SE and E coasts for now could increase and move inland depending on the track and it looks like it could be very wet on Sunday and could turn to sleet or snow later Sunday as the rainbands run into cold air.

    A lot going on and a big change to our recent benign conditions so needing monitoring I reckon.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 488 ✭✭ coillsaille


    Interesting weekend ahead it seems. Really appreciate all the charts Meteorite58.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    WRF showing a dump of snow Sunday evening. What you reckon ?


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Interesting weekend ahead it seems. Really appreciate all the charts Meteorite58.


    Don't want to be overdoing it with the charts :rolleyes: but this is quickly evolving and just trying to catch up with it myself.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    EURO 4 Hi Res just goes out to 18.00 sun but showing Temps below freezing and snow accumulating by 18.00 over high ground.

    850 hPa Temps


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Big rainfall accumulations from the EURO 4 by 18.00 Sunday

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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,306 ✭✭✭ SleetAndSnow


    I better tell my mother not to put the washing out on Sunday in Cork then.. :p


  • Registered Users Posts: 47,641 ✭✭✭✭ km79


    Depressing


  • Registered Users Posts: 21,794 ✭✭✭✭ Kermit.de.frog


    The exact positioning of the precipitation zone is still open to question but a decent chance of snow fall close to the northern and western flanks.

    Here is Hirlam's take but a good bit of variance between the models.

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    There is certainly a local flood risk as well.


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    Latest ARPEGE 18Z

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    Sounding is close to Rockchapel Co. Cork at 18.00 Sunday local time. Freezing level 396m .

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 10,453 Mod ✭✭✭✭ Meteorite58


    At the moment the ARPEGE 18Z holding the strongest winds on Sunday off the coasts except for a brief rise in strong winds in the SE for an hour or two Sunday night.

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