Strong Winds, Heavy Rain Wintry Weather : Sat 2nd to Mon 4th March 2019

Meteorite58

Worth keeping an eye on how this Depression develops on Saturday. The Models in general have been showing it track up off the NW coast but on latest runs they have been bringing it closer to the coast and showing some strong winds , the GFS not too dissimilar to the ECM at this stage showing a swathe of strong winds across much of the country for a number of hours , showing the strongest winds atm in the W.

More than likely warnings will be issued .








Most tellingly is that the ECM 12Z tracks the centre closer to the coast on the latest run with strong winds gusting 100 to 110 kph inland in places .

Will see how this pans out one way or the other.

M.T. Cranium

Some chance also for a second interval of strong winds in the southeast by late Sunday, this one could be rapidly developing just as it arrives in Munster. Less certain than Saturday's event.

Meteorite58

ECM 12Z keeping the depression much further off the NW on the latest run keeping the strongest winds on the coasts and not as strong inland as earlier runs.

Meteorite58

The other models getting more in line now. W, NW and N getting the strongest winds , looking like gusts of 110 to 120 kph on exposed coasts at this stage, up to about 100 kph in coastal areas and 80 to 90 more inland

Meteorite58

Center of the depression now much further away to the NW on the latest ECM 12Z keeping the strongest winds offshore. Blustery overland and windy on the coasts for a time but nothing too severe looking at this stage. Other models following suit, ARPEGE similar.

MeTheMan

Will this bring a lot of rain with it?

Meteorite58

SW and the W getting the most.

Villain

A dirty day ahead tomorrow, thankful the worst will stay out NorthWest, Sunday looks more interesting now, a surprise bit of white stuff maybe?

vickers209

Sundays system has been named as storm Freya by met uk
https://twitter.com/metoffice/status/1101418021820776448



http://https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-south-scotland-47415430

Mortelaro

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Some chance also for a second interval of strong winds in the southeast by late Sunday, this one could be rapidly developing just as it arrives in Munster. Less certain than Saturday's event.

Named storm Freya now by the UK met office
First I heard of it was the BBC forecast at 955am,so I was surprised that there was no discussion of it here
They actually had snow graphics on it for leinster and Scotland as well as strong winds but I presume the snow is sn error,I've not the time to look at detail now

uck51js9zml2yt

Fecking foreigners ruining our summer. Raining here in Killarney for a change.

Storm 10

I know its Sky but is ME not very slow in doing anything about this Storm

https://news.sky.com/story/danger-to-life-as-storm-freya-hits-uk-this-weekend-11651566

igCorcaigh

Storm 10 wrote: »

I know its Sky but is ME not very slow in doing anything about this Storm

https://news.sky.com/story/danger-to-life-as-storm-freya-hits-uk-this-weekend-11651566

"Danger to life", but only a yellow warning?

vickers209

igCorcaigh wrote: »

"Danger to life", but only a yellow warning?

She said: "At the moment, a Met Office yellow warning is in place for strong winds across southwest England, through Wales, the Midlands into northern England.

"This will be ugraded to an amber warning over the next 24 hours or so as forecasters pin down where the strongest winds will be.

"Gusts of 55 to 65mph are likely, with the potential of 70 to 80mph gusts for coastal parts of Devon and Cornwall, as we as Irish Sea coasts of Wales and northwest England.

Bsal

Storm Freya forecast to track over us on Sunday, looks like the south coast will get strong winds and rain

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wf2kDge34hI

Harry Palmr

Ladies and Gentlemen, stand down your trampolines!

Well there goes my gardening Sunday.

goat2

This has not been reported on lunchtime news weather forecast, would have expected it

Meteorite58

Blustery across the country tomorrow and very windy for a time along the W and NW.

All eyes then on to the rapidly deepening Low off the S of Ireland on Sunday. How strong will it get and will it track closer to the coast bringing strong winds inland . The most consistent models would appear to be the ECM, EURO 4 and ARPEGE with Sundays system. As we have seen in the past these rapidly developing Lows can change direction and increase or decrease in speed quite a bit than being modelled. Will see.













Status Yellow - Wind warning for Donegal, Galway and Mayo
South to southwest winds will reach mean speeds between 50 and 65 km/h at times, with gusts between 90 and 100km/h. Winds will be strongest along coasts.

Valid: Saturday 02 March 2019 08:00 to Sunday 03 March 2019 03:00

Issued: Friday 01 March 2019 19:00

Updated: Friday 01 March 2019 19:00

Meteorite58

Looking very wet on Sunday and models showing it turning wintry towards evening, probably sleety rain mix. Some big rainfal accumulations showing up now between here and early Monday. Might have to change the Thread Title again !


https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1101511890532995072

Meteorite58

Looking quite wintry Sun night now into Mon morning with lying snow possible if somewhat wet.

Meteorite58

I think it might be worth renaming the thread title as I reckon it could get very wet over the weekend leading to possible warnings and looks like we could get a bit of wintry precipitation Sunday night with a possible freeze in places so could lead to some dangerous driving conditions and possible warnings for Ice into Monday morning. The LP crossing the country on Sunday with the strongest winds off or along the S, SE and E coasts for now could increase and move inland depending on the track and it looks like it could be very wet on Sunday and could turn to sleet or snow later Sunday as the rainbands run into cold air.

A lot going on and a big change to our recent benign conditions so needing monitoring I reckon.

coillsaille

Interesting weekend ahead it seems. Really appreciate all the charts Meteorite58.

Meteorite58

WRF showing a dump of snow Sunday evening. What you reckon ?

Meteorite58

coillsaille wrote: »

Interesting weekend ahead it seems. Really appreciate all the charts Meteorite58.

Don't want to be overdoing it with the charts :rolleyes: but this is quickly evolving and just trying to catch up with it myself.

Meteorite58

EURO 4 Hi Res just goes out to 18.00 sun but showing Temps below freezing and snow accumulating by 18.00 over high ground.

850 hPa Temps

Meteorite58

Big rainfall accumulations from the EURO 4 by 18.00 Sunday

SleetAndSnow

I better tell my mother not to put the washing out on Sunday in Cork then..

km79

Depressing

Kermit.de.frog

The exact positioning of the precipitation zone is still open to question but a decent chance of snow fall close to the northern and western flanks.

Here is Hirlam's take but a good bit of variance between the models.





There is certainly a local flood risk as well.

Meteorite58

Latest ARPEGE 18Z









Sounding is close to Rockchapel Co. Cork at 18.00 Sunday local time. Freezing level 396m .

Meteorite58

At the moment the ARPEGE 18Z holding the strongest winds on Sunday off the coasts except for a brief rise in strong winds in the SE for an hour or two Sunday night.

km79

Yr.no is showing nearly an inch of rain from 12-6pm tomorrow at my location in east Galway
The charts above show it missing us by a good bit
Hope they come to fruition!

MidMan25

Another dismal morning in Cork. Roll on summer.

igCorcaigh

Windy gusts out there in the city.

SleetAndSnow

Gusts starting to pick up now in cork alright.

igCorcaigh

I haven't been keeping up much, but is this secondary low going to hit us in the south?

highdef

Interesting that BBC Weather and the Met Office are both showing a fair bit of snow for tomorrow in many parts of Ireland. ECMWF is also in agreement as is HIRLAM and Arpege, to some extent. And obviously the GFS parallel is up for a decent dumping

Seems like very strange output but there is cross model agreement so I guess it's something to keep an eye on.

Drumpot

Am I reading those Graphs correct? Worst of the wind should of passed Dublin by 4am Monday morning? I’m arriving on a flight into Dublin around 10am and hate even a bit of turbulence!!!

igCorcaigh

Drumpot wrote: »

Am I reading those Graphs correct? Worst of the wind should of passed Dublin by 4am Monday morning? I’m arriving on a flight into Dublin around 10am and hate even a bit of turbulence!!!

*have*

jk, idk

igCorcaigh

Windy here in Cork city centre

Itssoeasy

It's the definition of a wet Saturday here in cork. Rotten morning. Even my dog who normally can't wait for his walks on the weekend is taking a pass.

SleetAndSnow

gusting up to 42kts at cork airport atm. Heavy, cold rain as well.

Meteorite58

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Munster and Leinster
Heavy rain during Sunday will give accumulations of 25 to 35 mm.

Valid: Sunday 03 March 2019 06:00 to Sunday 03 March 2019 18:00

Issued: Saturday 02 March 2019 11:00

Updated: Saturday 02 March 2019 11:00



Met Eireann

Tomorrow
Sunday will be a cold and wet day for much of the country. Rain will develop along southern coasts then push northwards, and become widespread. The rain will turn heavy in the afternoon and possibly turn wintry later as well, with some snow over the hills and mountains. Light winds in the morning will become fresh to strong from a variable direction later as the centre of Storm Freya tracks eastwards over Munster. The strongest winds from Storm Freya will be off the south and east coast of the country. Temperatures of 6 to 8 degrees in the morning will fall to 1 to 5 degrees in the afternoon.

Meteorite58

https://twitter.com/MetEireann/status/1101809739640590336

Meteorite58

Some snow accumulation charts for tomorrow evening. HIRLAM not showing much nor ICON or the GFS. Looks like Hills and Mountains for sure. Looks like sleet and wet snow. Temps look like 0 to 1 to 2C where snow has fallen into Monday morning so some tricky roads possible Monday morning with snow accumulations on higher ground possibly slow to melt.

Meteorite58

The deepening storm tomorrow as it crosses Ireland keeping the strongest winds offshore but clipping along the S, SE and E coasts for a time.

Meteorite58

Tomorrow looks like a wicked day. Intriguing to see what snow falls , where and how much.

Meteorite58

Sat Pic midday.

Blustery morning here near Tralee gusting up around 60 to 70 km/h with 9.4mm of rain, Bar 997.4 hPa. Sky lighter now and stopped raining, breezy.

Oscar Bravo

Knock airport TAF forecasting sleet between midday and 6pm with a small chance of it turning to snow from 3pm to 6pm. Interesting day ahead

JCX BXC

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Knock airport TAF forecasting sleet between midday and 6pm with a small chance of it turning to snow from 3pm to 6pm. Interesting day ahead

Shannon has sleet between midday and 6pm and Cork has sleet between 5 and 6.

Meteorite58

Mace, Belmullet and Malin getting over 100 km/h a short time ago