Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Larbre34

Mr.Nice Guy wrote: »

That Paisley interview was something else. He dismissed Emily Maitlis' point that most people in NI disagree with his party's stance on Brexit by saying he doesn't believe "silly polls", that most of his constituents were for leave, and that "you and I know both know in NI polls are sectarian headcounts". Wow.

If that really is the case, he ought to be bricking it about a United Ireland before he loses the rest of his hair.

That interview should be replayed to every NI business, farmer, student, community worker and anyone with a private sector job.

Hurrache

blanch152 wrote: »

An honesty box wouldn't work at the border.

There are too many good republicans that would have an interest in avoiding the honesty box.

Yes, I was being incredibly sarcastic when I said it was going to work well.

Here's the story on the BBC
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-47544149

FrancieBrady

Hurrache wrote: »

Yes, I was being incredibly sarcastic when I said it was going to work well.

Smugglers of all creeds, being a class who never paid much attention to border infrastructure, were hardly the target market for 'honesty boxes'.

Roger_007

If I was an EU negotiator I would, at this stage, tell the Brits to just feck off, you're not getting any deal.

golfball37

Paisley was of course correct though. Nationalists voted remain and a large majority of unionists voted to leave. Opinion polls are a waste of time, the same polls said remain wouldn’t lose ffs. You might not like paisley but he was spot on earlier about the referendum in NI essentially being voted on sectarian head count. As all votes there are sadly

prawnsambo

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Smugglers of all creeds, being a class who never paid much attention to border infrastructure, were hardly the target market for 'honesty boxes'.

And unmanned border crossings between two separate customs jurisdictions are like knowing the Lotto numbers in advance for smugglers.

Headshot

Roger_007 wrote: »

If I was an EU negotiator I would, at this stage, tell the Brits to just feck off, you're not getting any deal.

You got to fell sorry for Tusk, Barnier and Juncker, they must of been at their wits end at this stage. Must be so frustrating and tiresome.

Those guys have done great work for the EU and from and Irish point of view what great friends they are

Spanish Eyes

I listen to Matthew Parris. I may be alone here, and some will not agree of course, but he is a rock of sense and is not sensational.

He does not think that UK will leave at all. He believes in purging extremists within the Tory party also, that means ERG to me.

Kind of like him. But I am sure I will be told otherwise.

Larbre34

Former Aussie PM Kevin Rudd, writing in the Guardian, has described suggestions by Brexiteers that the Commonwealth provides the opportunity to replace much of the trade that may be lost with the EU as "utter bollocks" and "the nuttiest of many nutty arguments" made by them. While Australia, NZ and Canada would explore any opportunities, their 65 million folk spread out on the far corners of the planet could scarcely compensate for 450 Million on the UK doorstep.

When reminded of India's billion people Rudd said, "good luck with that, they are the most bureaucratic, mercantilist and protectionist of the lot"

Trust an Aussie to provide unvarnished reality.

Professor Moriarty

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I listen to Matthew Parris. I may be alone here, and some will not agree of course, but he is a rock of sense and is not sensational.

He does not think that UK will leave at all. He believes in purging extremists within the Tory party also, that means ERG to me.

Kind of like him. But I am sure I will be told otherwise.

He's excellent.

prawnsambo

golfball37 wrote: »

Paisley was of course correct though. Nationalists voted remain and a large majority of unionists voted to leave. Opinion polls are a waste of time, the same polls said remain wouldn’t lose ffs. You might not like paisley but he was spot on earlier about the referendum in NI essentially being voted on sectarian head count. As all votes there are sadly

Pretty much all of this is untrue. The polls were showing the Leave side gaining coming up to polling day. It was very close and pretty much impossible to call as Boris Johnson found when he wrote two opposing articles the night before. And went with the wrong one. The Remain vote in NI was hardly on a sectarian basis. Business people were quite vocal about it. Famously, Farage told them it wasn't a business decision but a political one. Maybe in cities like Belfast, it could have split on sectarian lines, but after that, it was as mixed a bag as elsewhere. And polls since then have shown the same mixed bag. More unionists than nationalists think the DUP are following the right course, but it's a minority of around 30%.

FrancieBrady

prawnsambo wrote: »

And unmanned border crossings between two separate customs jurisdictions are like knowing the Lotto numbers in advance for smugglers.

I live on the border, it will be like the old days again. They will come from Galway Cork, Derry, Londonderry etc and all over to smuggle. It still happens as it is btw.

xper

golfball37 wrote: »

Paisley was of course correct though. Nationalists voted remain and a large majority of unionists voted to leave. Opinion polls are a waste of time, the same polls said remain wouldn’t lose ffs. You might not like paisley but he was spot on earlier about the referendum in NI essentially being voted on sectarian head count. As all votes there are sadly

So what if there is a strong correlation, that doesn't invalidate the vote outcome as Paisley implied.

Hurrache

xper wrote: »

So what if there is a strong correlation, that doesn't invalidate the vote outcome as Paisley implied.

The figures don't work. There's more portestants and yet more people voted Remain.

Charles Babbage

blanch152 wrote: »

Deleted post

Which creeds are not smugglers?

The figures don't work. There's more portestants and yet more people voted Remain.

A large proportion of Alliance type voters were remain and a significant number of UU types. Not all were Catholics, but they were mostly not in the DUP demographic.

MrMusician18

prawnsambo wrote: »

Pretty much all of this is untrue. The polls were showing the Leave side gaining coming up to polling day. It was very close and pretty much impossible to call as Boris Johnson found when he wrote two opposing articles the night before. And went with the wrong one. The Remain vote in NI was hardly on a sectarian basis. Business people were quite vocal about it. Famously, Farage told them it wasn't a business decision but a political one. Maybe in cities like Belfast, it could have split on sectarian lines, but after that, it was as mixed a bag as elsewhere. And polls since then have shown the same mixed bag. More unionists than nationalists think the DUP are following the right course, but it's a minority of around 30%.

A fair bit incorrect in that post. Johnson declared for leave while they were behind in the polls and had written two opposing articles for the Telegraph before he declared what side he was on, not the night of the vote.

The leave vote in NI was largely sectarian with largely only middle class unionists and nationalists voting remain with the rest voting to leave.

Hurrache

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Which creeds are not smugglers?






A large proportion of Alliance type voters were remain and a significant number of UU types. Not all were Catholics, but they were mostly not in the DUP demographic.

The argument was the vote was along secterian lines though which it wasn't in the way assembly elections etc are.

FrancieBrady

SNIP. No more condescending nonsense please.

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

The argument was the vote was along secterian lines though which it wasn't in the way assembly elections etc are.

It was - kind of. 85% of Catholics voted Remain whereas 40% of Protestants voted Remain. Similarly, 75% of DUP supporters voted Leave. Whereas 84% of SF supporters voted Remain.

Itssoeasy

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I listen to Matthew Parris. I may be alone here, and some will not agree of course, but he is a rock of sense and is not sensational.

He does not think that UK will leave at all. He believes in purging extremists within the Tory party also, that means ERG to me.

Kind of like him. But I am sure I will be told otherwise.

He was just on virgin media one there with Ivan and Matt and I don't think I've heard him speak and I was struck by how calm he seemed. There was no raising of the voice and he wasn't talking in absolutes.

Larbre34

Itssoeasy wrote: »

He was just on virgin media one there with Ivan and Matt and I don't think I've heard him speak and I was struck by how calm he seemed. There was no raising of the voice and he wasn't talking in absolutes.

How refreshing. He doesn't do twitter either. Old school.

Hurrache

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

It was - kind of. 85% of Catholics voted Remain whereas 40% of Protestants voted Remain. Similarly, 75% of DUP supporters voted Leave. Whereas 84% of SF supporters voted Remain.

40% voting remain is a pretty big percentage though for it to be a sectarian vote in the way Paisley meant. When you look at the population overall as opposed to splitting voters into categories based on who they vote for, it transcended religion as much as it could for the north.

Larbre34

And now its over to Brian Kennedy for his solutions to Brexit and Irish unity.

Ah why not, Ive heard nothing better from 100 talking heads tonight.....

Hurrache

Larbre34 wrote: »

And now its over to Brian Kennedy for his solutions to Brexit and Irish unity.

Ah why not, Ive heard nothing better from 100 talking heads tonight.....

Was this The Tonight Show?

Itssoeasy

Larbre34 wrote: »

And now its over to Brian Kennedy for his solutions to Brexit and Irish unity.

Ah why not, Ive heard nothing better from 100 talking heads tonight.....

Was Brian Kennedy a last minute replacement tonight ? He looked like he'd not long woken up.

Professor Moriarty

Hurrache wrote: »

40% voting remain is a pretty big percentage though for it to be a sectarian vote in the way Paisley meant. When you look at the population overall as opposed to splitting voters into categories based on who they vote for, it transcended religion as much as it could for the north.

It did indeed. Paisley was talking about North Antrim in the main.

Good loser

Larbre34 wrote: »

Former Aussie PM Kevin Rudd, writing in the Guardian, has described suggestions by Brexiteers that the Commonwealth provides the opportunity to replace much of the trade that may be lost with the EU as "utter bollocks" and "the nuttiest of many nutty arguments" made by them. While Australia, NZ and Canada would explore any opportunities, their 65 million folk spread out on the far corners of the planet could scarcely compensate for 450 Million on the UK doorstep.

When reminded of India's billion people Rudd said, "good luck with that, they are the most bureaucratic, mercantilist and protectionist of the lot"

Trust an Aussie to provide unvarnished reality.

That is/was a brilliant article. Very intelligent - particularly liked the broader geo political aspects he highlighted at the end.

Laois_Man

Itssoeasy wrote: »

Was Brian Kennedy a last minute replacement tonight ? He looked like he'd not long woken up.

Well he is in cancer treatment

Missed this bit though - I got bored with the tonight Show coz they were spending too long talking about the legality of the Strasbourg outcome and switched off - it's already out of date!

Can't believe commentators that seriously talking also about May going back to Brussels again looking for further concessions and/or assurances. Juncker, Barnier and Tusk won't entertain them! No chance!

Tell me how

Laois_Man wrote: »

Well he is in cancer treatment

Missed this bit though - I got bored with the tonight Show coz they were spending too long talking about the legibility of the Strasbourg outcome and switched off - it's already out of date!

Can't believe commentators that seriously talking also about May going back to Brussels again looking for further concessions and/or assurances. Juncker, Barnier and Tusk won't entertain them! No chance!

Katya Adler (I'm pretty sure it was her) was kinda saying earlier that, well, you know, the EU did bend yesterday sooooo....

Laois_Man

Tell me how wrote: »

Katya Adler (I'm pretty sure it was her) was kinda saying earlier that, well, you know, the EU did bend yesterday sooooo....

I never thought I'd have 10 times more respect for Sky News than I do the BBC!