Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

LeinsterDub

dalyboy wrote: »

Can anyone explain how in the hell sterling is trading at 86 pence at the moment. Where is this confidence in a dying on it’s feet economy. Am I missing something as I would have forecast a parity (at least) scenario at this point in the ticking clock exit

None of the events of today are a shock the market has priced it in

Spanish Eyes

road_high wrote: »

Northern Ireland is a disaster since its inception. Any imaginary “country” based purely on a sectarian headcount is doomed to failure. It’ll never work, never did and with the demographic changes we are seeing it’s tottering on the brink. The election two years ago told the story, SF were within a hairs breath of DUP now.

I cannot see any dividend for either of them. Will still be tribal and so divisive.

But we are moving off topic.

L1011

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The "moderate voice" of Northern Unionists died when UUP died.

The UUP retains a bigger membership than the DUP surreally.

10000maniacs

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

The "moderate voice" of Northern Unionists died when UUP died.

I often wonder why that was?

Probabably similar to SDLP and SF.

There is no Assembly up there and no hope of any agreement either between the sides. Terrible tribalism.

Except I don't remember Ken Maginnis, Davie Trimble, John Taylor or Jeffrey Donaldson being especially more moderate than the DUP at the time of the GFA.

Akrasia

Havockk wrote: »

Need a WA though. No chance witout.

The EU will agree an extension for the purpose of holding a referendum and they will insist on the UK participation in the eu elections

Spanish Eyes

L1011 wrote: »

The UUP retains a bigger membership than the DUP surreally.

Perhaps, but membership does not equal votes either. What are the UUP membership afraid of I wonder?

joe40

Akrasia wrote: »

joe40 wrote: »

Or they just vote a third time and accepts May's.
A lot of the no vote are people trying to stop/ delay brexit. So if there is no extension I think they would take Mays deal rather than crash out. Apart from Erg and DUP would anyone serioussly allow no deal to happen.

The remainers always have the option of unilaterally withdrawing A50 at the last minute

It depends on the margin in tomorrows vote. If it's an overwhelming defeat for the No Deal option, then, if on the 29th of March there still isn't any extension on the table, then someone will just table a motion to withdraw Article 50 and if this is the last chance saloon, there will likely be a majority support for it

The margin for tomorrow will tell us how many nutters there are in the HOC who are prepared to scuttle the ship rather than remain in the EU (in any capacity)

I didn't realise that could happen. That is positive.
I understand the default is leaving with no deal on the 29th if things stay as they are but I'm still optmistic/hopeful that won't happen.
Apart from erg and DUP I don't think other MP no one wants no deal.
So even in the absence of an extension either article 50 will be revoked or Mays deal will pass with reluctant labour support. If it is the 28 th with no other option they can't allow no deal.

By the way a wee question here, could the uk government not simply get their own extension by revoking A50 at this stage. Could it not then be invoked again later. Obviously all good faith would evaporate and "no deal" would be unavoidable

FrancieBrady

10000maniacs wrote: »

Except I don't remember Ken Maginnis, Davie Trimble, John Taylor or Jeffrey Donaldson being especially more moderate than the DUP at the time of the GFA.

It's revisionist nonsense to suggest they were moderates. Trimble arm in arm with Paisley after Drumcree anyone?
They were very good at pretending to be moderates.

Shelga

I'm watching bits of one of the Brexit referendum debates from 2016- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0U4Iecc3Xr0

Currently watching Nigel Farage at 1:12:10 sarcastically saying "wouldn't it be terrible to be a country like Norway"- Norway who are in the single market.

I actually do think that the ones arguing Remain were as impassioned and fact-oriented as they could have been. 17.4 million people were just determined to stick their fingers in their ears.

diggerdigger

dalyboy wrote: »

Can anyone explain how in the hell sterling is trading at 86 pence at the moment. Where is this confidence in a dying on it’s feet economy. Am I missing something as I would have forecast a parity (at least) scenario at this point in the ticking clock exit

This particular chaos is priced in. For some time. But I would suspect that's wearing thin.

Hurrache

CelticRambler wrote: »

It really can! See Akrasia's post above.

I don't think so, several MEPs in Europe have already said first that there'll need to be a good justification for any extension, and secondly they don't want the UK, via its MEPs, having any influence on EU policies and budgets.

Gob****e Andrew Bridgen on Prime Time.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

I am for the dissolving of the Irish border and as much service harmonisation on the island as possible. But it would be a mistake to let (you get a TD for every 20,000-30,000) 22 DUP head melts into the Dail and holding the balance of power in government. I would also have concerns that it would harden voters in the South and we could end up with a much worse type of politics.

The only real way for a United Ireland to work out for the benefit of everyone is to have the Assembly up and running in tandem with the Dail.

Spanish Eyes

Two more days of farces to go.

Will the EU capitulate, yes all 27, and allow an extension, or will UK just crash out as expected?

My bet is for an extension. Much as I believe that is playing into the UK hands. They think the EU will give them anything they want, because EU need UK more than vice versa.

OMG. How much more breathing space is needed for a country that DOESN'T KNOW WHAT IT WANTS!

If that question was answered, there might be progress..

Hurrache

road_high wrote: »

There’ll be a nationalist majority in Stormont very soon hence the DUP reticence and non interest in power sharing

Sad thing is that these days the most outlandish thing about this statement is the assumption there'll be a Stormont assembly any time soon.

Harry Palmr

The EU should turf them out on a no deal basis. The billions they owe should be sent straight to Ireland as compensation.

diggerdigger

Shelga wrote: »

I'm watching bits of one of the Brexit referendum debates from 2016- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0U4Iecc3Xr0

Currently watching Nigel Farage at 1:12:10 sarcastically saying "wouldn't it be terrible to be a country like Norway"- Norway who are in the customs union.

I actually do think that the ones arguing Remain were as impassioned and fact-oriented as they could have been. 17.4 million people were just determined to stick their fingers in their ears.

Also, Norway are one of the richest, best managed nations on earth. They have all their thoughts together, managed, organised and planned. If if could think of a country to juxtapose with? Hmmmm...

J Mysterio

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

Even ERG proposing an extension until May 22nd:

http://twitter.com/SteveBakerHW/status/1105568607084441602?s=19

So nice that Baker signed for Mogg aswel.

zapitastas

PokeHerKing wrote: »

They'll be no different to sections of society angry at the current housing situation or the state of the HSE.

They certainly won't have a say in trade policy or national security and to think they will is up there with the dilusional type thinking of ERG/DUP.

Very naive view to take. It is a conflict that has rumbled on for hundreds of years at this stage. The removal of border infrastructure removed a major bone of contention. The reintroduction of which could agitate civil disobedience and disturbance not to mention the potential for a return to political violence. It doesn't take that many in an organisation to create absolute mayhem, with community backing it could spiral. Once the lid comes off it is very hard to get it back on

Roger_007

road_high wrote: »

Northern Ireland is a disaster since its inception. Any imaginary “country” based purely on a sectarian headcount is doomed to failure. It’ll never work, never did and with the demographic changes we are seeing it’s tottering on the brink. The election two years ago told the story, SF were within a hairs breath of DUP now.

I think that the point is not far off when all sides in Britain will be washing their hands of NI altogether. The ultra right will now see NI as an impediment to their ultimate dream of 'Great England', (rather than Great Britain), while the more moderate section of the political establishment see NI as a place full of irredeemably intransigent people who will never get on with each other. NIs days are numbered as 'just another part of Britain'.
It always sounds false when TM talks about "our precious union"; why does she feel the need to emphasise the 'precious' bit? As Shakespeare put it: "methinks the lady doth protest too much".

An Ciarraioch

The Spanish PM, Pedro Sanchez has written a piece in El País regretting the Commons vote, and even if you've just basic Spanish, it's fairly readable. Basically, it says the agreement is the only option on the table, before tracing the history of the referendum, and stating his full support for the GFA. Of course, with the Spanish GE in full swing, he makes a number of domestic analogies, so no prizes for guessing which parties are in the firing line when nostalgic nationalism, the advance of the extreme right, and the simplification of democracy are mentioned!

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/03/12/opinion/1552422443_582785.html

Imreoir2

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

I am for the dissolving of the Irish border and as much service harmonisation on the island as possible. But it would be a mistake to let (you get a TD for every 20,000-30,000) 22 DUP head melts into the Dail and holding the balance of power in government. I would also have concerns that it would harden voters in the South and we could end up with a much worse type of politics.

The only real way for a United Ireland to work out for the benefit of everyone is to have the Assembly up and running in tandem with the Dail.

It's possible to isolate a small rump of undesirables in a parliament, I believe a few EU countries treat their far right groupings as essentially untouchables and while they arguably hold the balance of power, neither the government nor the opposition will have anything to do with them so everything carries on as normal in spite of them.

Atlantic Dawn

Atlantic Dawn wrote: »

The tariffs she will announce tomorrow will be interesting.

Also measures specific to the border in the event of no deal being released. No doubt the timing of this a move by TM to take a swipe at the DUP.

FrancieBrady

Deleted User wrote: »

Also measures specific to the border in the event of no deal being released. No doubt the timing of this a move by TM to take a swipe at the DUP.

Have been released or being released tomorrow?

Hurrache

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Have been released or being released tomorrow?

Plan is overnight or the morning for tomorrow's debates.

Water John

TM did specifically mention measures in relation to NI would be published tomorrow along with tariffs.

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo

diggerdigger wrote: »

Also, Norway are one of the richest, best managed nations on earth. They have all their thoughts together, managed, organised and planned. If if could think of a country to juxtapose with? Hmmmm...

It has over US$1 trillion in assets, including 1.3% of global stocks and shares, making it the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund. In May 2018 it was worth about $195,000 per Norwegian citizen.

Government Pension Fund of Norway

They really know what their doing.

Frank Bullitt

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1105468031570984962

James O'Brien on fire.

Hurrache

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

It has over US$1 trillion in assets, including 1.3% of global stocks and shares, making it the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund. In May 2018 it was worth about $195,000 per Norwegian citizen.

Government Pension Fund of Norway

They really know what their doing.

Copious amounts of natural resources certainly do help though.

Harry Palmr

Tangatagamadda Chaddabinga Bonga Bungo wrote: »

It has over US$1 trillion in assets, including 1.3% of global stocks and shares, making it the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund. In May 2018 it was worth about $195,000 per Norwegian citizen.

Government Pension Fund of Norway

They really know what their doing.

They know what they have to do to survive the post carbon economy.

PokeHerKing

zapitastas wrote:

Very naive view to take. It is a conflict that has rumbled on for hundreds of years at this stage. The removal of border infrastructure removed a major bone of contention. The reintroduction of which could agitate civil disobedience and disturbance not to mention the potential for a return to political violence. It doesn't take that many in an organisation to create absolute mayhem, with community backing it could spiral. Once the lid comes off it is very hard to get it back on

No, it's naive in the extreme to think any Irish government would choose to put a customs border in the celtic sea for fear of violence from a small section of society.