Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

Seth Brundle

downcow wrote: »

Curious what the direction of peoples thinking is heading
A quick question. How certain are you that the EU will not modify the WA in any way to placate UK? I'd like two percentages ie one month ago and the other now

Mine

last month 50% Now 30%

Aah I'm following the David Davis position!
Sure, hasn't he been right on Brexit so far?

Water John

downcow, that throw away comment about milk processing facilities, could be well ascribed to one of the ERG gurus.

Seth Brundle

RobMc59 wrote: »

That worrying but not as worrying as "did I eat any of that EU horsemeat that was sold as beef?"

You mean the companies that we're found to have illegally breached standards and punished? What has that got to do with reducing legal standards?

downcow

Seth Brundle wrote: »

So yes, there will be sales of chlorinated chicken

...and we are doubly screwed this side of the pond as we'll be washing it down with EU chlorinated water

RobMc59

Seth Brundle wrote: »

You mean the companies that we're found to have illegally breached standards and punished? What has that got to do with reducing legal standards?

That is why I say I prefer to stay in the EU but don't swallow everything they say-you buy a product and it's reasonable to think it's what you're told it is-the EU quality inspectors obviously weren't doing their jobs which brings the EU quality control into question.

Rain Ascending

Coming back to the mutual recognition agreement announced yesterday:

Christy42 wrote: »

This deal seems to not be very much. Do the EU and US have much of a deal? If it is just maintaining standards that is just not sending goods the UK would send back anyway (unless an agreement was struck yo lower them).

Rather than listening to Trump's take on it (hah!), go back to the original press announcement:

The agreement will maintain all relevant aspects of the current EU-US MRA when the EU-US agreement ceases to apply to the UK. It helps facilitate goods trade between the two nations and means UK exporters can continue to ensure goods are compliant with technical regulations before they depart the UK, saving businesses time, money and resources. American exporters to the UK benefit in the same way.
Total UK-US trade in sectors covered by the deal is worth up to £12.8 billion, based on recent average trade flows.

For example, two of the sectors involved are pharma and telecommunications equipment.

So, yes, it is a relatively important agreement. It replicates one of the US-EU agreements and I would guess a vital one if a no-deal Brexit happens.
However, it is unlikely to be trumpeted as such by Brexiteers, simply because it makes a lie out of the too-oft-used statement that "much trade is on WTO terms only". Several hundred of these agreements will lapse in a no-deal Brexit scenario, immediately worsening UK's trading position with not just the EU, but most of the world.

So what should be a good news story for advocates of Brexit just ties one of the common narratives into knots...

Sam Russell

downcow wrote: »

Curious what the direction of peoples thinking is heading
A quick question. How certain are you that the EU will not modify the WA in any way to placate UK? I'd like two percentages ie one month ago and the other now

Mine

last month 50% Now 30%

0% and 0%. It has always been 0% since the WA was signed by both parties.

The WA is final. The PD is final, just the final font and paper colour to settle on.

No changes the EU can make will allow the ERG and DUP to support the WA.

Bit cynical

prawnsambo wrote: »

I don't think you're correct there. The WA includes financial provisions, and afaik, they have to be approved by parliament.

However I wasn't saying that there would not need to be any votes but rather that the votes could be spread out with hopefully only a minority voting against each individual vote. The single vote brought about by Gina Miller's initiative (and amendment by Grieve) meant that both hard line Brexiteers and the various factions of Remainers combined forces to defeat the deal wanted by Ireland. This is not to say it would have been easy (the backstop being the greatest stumbling block) but possibly easier nonetheless than the single vote.

murphaph

downcow wrote: »

...and we are doubly screwed this side of the pond as we'll be washing it down with EU chlorinated water

You understand the chlorine itself is not the problem?

RobMc59

murphaph wrote: »

You understand the chlorine itself is not the problem?

Do you mean in water or to clean chicken?

Capt'n Midnight

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Brexitcast talking about Labour rebels forming a new party over the weekend. Pinch of salt at the moment as they are often wrong but keep an eye out.

Yesterday's vote. Tories 243 vs Labour 244.

67 Tories didn't vote which is more than SNP, Liberals , Plaid and Green.

So even if there were a new Labour party what would it achieve ?


Single seat constituencies mean safe seats , and that sucks because so many seats are gifts of the party which means MP have to follow the whip.

murphaph

RobMc59 wrote: »

That is why I say I prefer to stay in the EU but don't swallow everything they say-you buy a product and it's reasonable to think it's what you're told it is-the EU quality inspectors obviously weren't doing their jobs which brings the EU quality control into question.

Huh? This was not an accident it was a deliberate fraud by a middle man. The horse meat was legally produced sold by the abattoir as horse meat.

Random DNA testing by the FSAI uncovered the fraud.

ThePanjandrum

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the new price rises by 10%, then so will the residue, so the actual cost of changing from a 3 year old car to a new car will not be the full 10% of the new car price, just 10% of the cost to upgrade. Not much more than some models rise due to inflation, fall in the pound, improved spec, etc.

Posh imported car sales will not suffer, but Nissan and Vauxhall cars are mainly exported (80%) and will suffer greatly. Reduced exports will mean job losses, and cost increases, and so falling profits or rising losses.

Ford have already said that they will pull out of the UK if no deal occurs.

Ford don't manufacture cars in the UK anyway and they are looking to get out of Europe.

They would be building Transits here but the EU provided incentives to move production to Turkey.

Seth Brundle

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Ford don't manufacture cars in the UK anyway and they are looking to get out of Europe.

They would be building Transits here but the EU provided incentives to move production to Turkey.

They manufacture engines in Bridgend (petrol), Dagenham (diesel) and Halewood (transmissions). They also have an a large R&D facility in Dunton which employs over 3,000 engineers.

murphaph

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Ford don't manufacture cars in the UK anyway and they are looking to get out of Europe.

They would be building Transits here but the EU provided incentives to move production to Turkey.

What incentives?

CelticRambler

RobMc59 wrote: »

That is why I say I prefer to stay in the EU but don't swallow everything they say-you buy a product and it's reasonable to think it's what you're told it is-the EU quality inspectors obviously weren't doing their jobs which brings the EU quality control into question.

That's one way of looking at it. The other is that EU inspectors (Irish, as it happens) were doing their jobs perfectly by identifying unscrupulous practices that had been undertaken in another member state.

There will always be chancers in any given business sector, and they'll get away with things close to home because they know how the system works and friends in the system. But when you have control points spread across twenty-something different jurisdictions, each with its own motivation for upholding a harmonised standard, this kind of thing can more effectively be spotted and dealt at a relatively early stage.

lawred2

murphaph wrote: »

What incentives?

And to a non EU member?

RobMc59

murphaph wrote: »

Huh? This was not an accident it was a deliberate fraud by a middle man. The horse meat was legally produced sold by the abattoir as horse meat.

Random DNA testing by the FSAI uncovered the fraud.

Yes that's correct although I understood it was irish and British inspectors who discovered it which had been imported from the continent.

c.p.w.g.w

Jaguar have set up a facility in Shannon, its not open up tho. Seems it coincided with the closure of the plant in soulihull moor

ThePanjandrum

Sam Russell wrote: »

Perhaps you might to have a chat with Ford, who have different ideas. RTE also carried the story.

But then what would they know?

Is this the Ford that recently closed its transmission plant at Blanquefort in France and is getting rid of a quarter of the jobs at Ford-Saarlouis in Germany?

Of course, that must be because of Brexit too.

Inquitus

Seth Brundle wrote: »

They manufacture engines in Bridgend (petrol), Dagenham (diesel) and Halewood (transmissions). They also have an a large R&D facility in Dunton which employs over 3,000 engineers.

If the UK goes WTO, the parts they import from Europe will be hit by 4-5% Tariffs, so it will also increase the price of domestic cars as a knock on effect, although not to the same extent the 10% tariffs on imported EU cars.

funkey_monkey

Porsche have said there will be a 10% tariff on all cars into the UK after a no deal BREXIT, regardless of whether they were pre-ordered or not

Zerbini Blewitt

J Mysterio wrote: »

I suspect the people like Farage et all will be widely recognised as villians when this all implodes. Once the dust settles in the mad max wasteland, I anticipate Mueller style inquiries to get to the bottom of their dubious connections, their motives and activities. Both for the sake of justice and truth, but also to take the blame.

Andew Niel has been “joking” (cough, splutter…..) as many here will have seen; on his late night chat show the odd time for the last year or so, that the Brexiters (like himself) might be hung up from lampposts by the angry mob …… when their true deeds are exposed - the way Mussolini was (for the Mercer/Putin/Tory/anti-democratic brazen criminal coup that they’ve masterminded since 2015-Jun 2016).
Isn’t it wierd to see the odd chink of reality or honesty from even one Brexiter
(I suppose its self-confessing gallows humour)???

However, I don’t get their idea of whimsically throwing 5 million of their productive countrymen onto the permanent unemployment heap.
And then what?....they’re going to have to rely on the riot police units or military snatch squads to control the plebs (said as sarcasm.....as if a member of the aristocratic/billionaire 1%)!
So futuristic!?!!?
It all seems un peu Marie Antoinette??

Imreoir2

Inquitus wrote: »

If the UK goes WTO, the parts they import from Europe will be hit by 4-5% Tariffs, so it will also increase the price of domestic cars as a knock on effect, although not to the same extent the 10% tariffs on imported EU cars.

Of course that ignores the entire economic model for their factories being bust. The investment made in many of these factories was made on the basis that UK based production could be sold into the EU. That investment was not made to merely service the UK domestic market. That investment was not made in anticipation of tarrifs on parts and on any sales into the EU, nor was it made in the context of JIT being hugely disrupted.

It would be highly suspect to assume that factories that were not built to service the UK market can easily be switched to servicing that market alone. In the medium term it seems likely to me that the UK auto industry will wither and die under Brexit and the UK will largely be left paying tarrifs for cars manafactured in the EU, unless and untill a free trade agreement can be agreed.

ThePanjandrum

murphaph wrote: »

What incentives?

£80 million EIB loan to Ford to invest in its Turkish plant in 2012.

Shortly afterwards, Ford closed the Southampton plant - its last assembly plant in the UK - where it had made Transit vans for 40 years and moved production to the Turkish factory.

The EU was at the time trying to prepare Turkey for EU membership.

RobMc59

CelticRambler wrote: »

That's one way of looking at it. The other is that EU inspectors (Irish, as it happens) were doing their jobs perfectly by identifying unscrupulous practices that had been undertaken in another member state.

There will always be chancers in any given business sector, and they'll get away with things close to home because they know how the system works and friends in the system. But when you have control points spread across twenty-something different jurisdictions, each with its own motivation for upholding a harmonised standard, this kind of thing can more effectively be spotted and dealt at a relatively early stage.

That's a fair point-i admit the sound of chlorine washed chicken doesn't sound very appealing although as I understand it the EU doesn't actually have a problem with chicken washed this way.All the chicken I see here is British and Irish which is fine by me!:)

murphaph

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

£80 million EIB loan to Ford to invest in its Turkish plant in 2012.

Shortly afterwards, Ford closed the Southampton plant - its last assembly plant in the UK - where it had made Transit vans for 40 years and moved production to the Turkish factory.

The EU was at the time trying to prepare Turkey for EU membership.

Now that's not the full story is it?

The EIB also lent Ford £450m to develop green vehicles in the UK around the same time.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/infacts.org/eu-not-paying-uk-firms-outsource/amp/

CelticRambler

downcow wrote: »

Its a little more complex than this. I understand 90% of NI milk goes south of the border to be processed in your factories and then 90% of the product is sold in the UK.
So will tariffs cancel themselves out or will factories move up to NI so product needs no tariffs?

You're right - it's more complex than this (and not a little, either!) Milk is "seasonal", so NI milk is coming across the border to make up for a shortfall in RoI production from time to time. That's mainly for immediate consumption, i.e. as fresh milk. Much of Ireland's exported milk is for processing into something else, notably cheese, but also whey proteins and other ingredients for something else again. At the moment, there are UK factories making secondary ingredients that are sold back into Ireland and into other EU countries to eventually end up in a finished product on a supermarket shelf or a restaurant plate.

Will the tariffs cancel themselves out? No. As much as possible, Irish farmers will increase their output to compensate for the loss of NI milk. Exports to the UK may or may not be affected. On the one hand, the UK will be desperate for food, so our history as a reliable nearby source will make us a preferential supplier (and remember, the Brexiteers have told us that they're not putting up a border/not applying tariffs ...) On the otherhand, there will be less of a demand, seeing as the market for UK ingredients will be hammered: why would any EU manufacturer pay over the odds for British ingredients when they can get the same product cheaper from Ireland, France or Germany?

So we'll probably see Irish dairies expand their production of secondary ingredients, we'll see some British factories set up in Ireland, and the Irish agri-sector will continue to develop into continental markets.

Mr.Nice Guy

I really don't believe there will be much 'Bregret' from those that supported Brexit if things go pear-shaped. If we look at our own history, when we had tens of thousands of people emigrating and an economy that was in the doldrums, how many would have said that Irish independence was a mistake? On the contrary, they would have disregarded the economic aspects instead highlighting the benefits of independence, and would have blamed any hardship on the actions of the British. And whether we like it or not the majority of Brexit-supporters see Brexit as an independence movement and will defend it on similar grounds.

I think the number of Brexit supporters who feel they voted for the wrong option will be quite small simply because most people don't like to admit that they made a mistake. I see Brexit supporters falling largely into three categories:

1) 'I knew what I was voting for' Brexiteers - These people will insist that they knew all along there would be pain, but that they felt it was a price worth paying to 'take back control.'

2) 'It could have been easy' Brexiteers - These people will be adamant it really could have worked out smoothly if not for the fault of remainers who didn't believe in it enough, and an intransigent EU that was punishing the UK.

3) 'True Believer' Brexiteers - These people will be so deep in the cult of Brexit that they will refuse to accept there even is any pain. They will brand it fake news, remoaning. They will be the equivalent of the most ardent Trump supporters across the pond. Any attempt to point out hardship will be countered by a lament about why no one is pointing out the positives.

I suspect there will be a small percentage of mainly middle-class, upper-class Brexit supporters that will think they have erred on the wrong side of history, and we might have one or two high profile figures deliver a heartfelt 'I was wrong' newspaper article piece or new book, but to most Brexiteers this will simply be another 'traitor' to add to their long list. I believe, tragically, that working class communities who voted Brexit will cling to their conviction that they have done the right thing.

CelticRambler

ThePanjandrum wrote: »

Is this the Ford that recently closed its transmission plant at Blanquefort in France and is getting rid of a quarter of the jobs at Ford-Saarlouis in Germany?

Of course, that must be because of Brexit too.

Well there we have the essence of the Brexit problem: it is one almighty distraction from what is really going on in the world. Not just the UK, not just the EU, but everywhere. Traditional manufacturing jobs are simply being eradicated. Trump made a big thing about bringing blue-collar jobs back to America, mining and auto-manufacturing being the main ones. Guess what - every company concerned has cut jobs, not created them.

We've got the same carry-on here in France, with the gilet jaunes acting the eejit every weekend, demanding Macron turn the clock back to the 1970s. It's not going to happen, no matter how many national monuments are trashed in Paris, and no matter how many EU flags are burnt in Sunderland. All the Brexit referendum has achieved is to highlight the dysfunctional nature of British politics, and divert everyone's attention and energy away from constructive action to adapt Britain to life in the 21st century.