Brexit discussion thread VII (Please read OP before posting)

demfad

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

The problem with that is if they lower their standards then they may not be able to export to the EU.

Indeed. This will have occurred to a lot of the people backing hard Brexit.

And this is why many of the ERG types have stated that they want to rip the EU down.

They are ideologically opposed to the EU. They view high standards for all and workers rights as just socialism stealing from their profits.

Christy42

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Seth Brundle wrote: »

So yes, there will be sales of chlorinated chicken and hormone laced beef in the UK soon...

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1096445982865145857

I can't wait for them to go now. The mask has slipped over the past two years and it's now obvious that the Tories and Trump will make perfect bedfellows.

The similarities between the Trump and Brexit campaign are pretty striking.

Healthcare will be so easy. This will be the easiest of all trade deals ever.

Those who disagree are the enemy of the people. Those who disagree are traitors.

An ability to dodge getting pinned down on any sort of specifics so to reduce what people can complain about.

Seeking out blame. It is all Democrats/EU fault that my utopia failed.

This deal seems to not be very much. Do the EU and US have much of a deal? If it is just maintaining standards that is just not sending goods the UK would send back anyway (unless an agreement was struck yo lower them).

ilovesmybrick

I wonder how the Spanish General election is going to impact upon this. I find it hard to see a sitting Spanish government approving an extension to article 50 without serious commitments from Westminster. It would be electoral suicide to even indicate that they would make concessions on Gibraltar after the Cattilan issues.

Leroy42

So clearly we at the point of who blinks first. Brexiteers, in fact the whole of the UK it would seem, are convinced that the EU will give concessions just before the end of March to avoid No Deal.

But what is the EU thinking? At this point that surely can't be thinking that the current deal, particularly with TM as PM, has any chance of passing.

So are they thinking that TM will rescind A50 rather than a No Deal? Because it seems to me that at this point even if they do offer concessions it is likely that it will be regarded as proof that the ERG etc are right and they will push for even more. So they will end up having to give almost everything, with the destabilising effect that will have across the rest of the EU.

Or do they simply accept No Deal as the only real outcome and wait for TM to move?

Tell me how

Leroy42 wrote: »

So clearly we at the point of who blinks first. Brexiteers, in fact the whole of the UK it would seem, are convinced that the EU will give concessions just before the end of March to avoid No Deal.

But what is the EU thinking? At this point that surely can't be thinking that the current deal, particularly with TM as PM, has any chance of passing.

So are they thinking that TM will rescind A50 rather than a No Deal? Because it seems to me that at this point even if they do offer concessions it is likely that it will be regarded as proof that the ERG etc are right and they will push for even more. So they will end up having to give almost everything, with the destabilising effect that will have across the rest of the EU.

Or do they simply accept No Deal as the only real outcome and wait for TM to move?

I think accepting No Deal is the way the EU are going to go.
If they don't, it really undermines their position in any other negotiations as they would be seen to ultimately give in to what the UK have been going on with.

The comments from senior EU people (Weyand, Tusk, Verhofstadt) would indicate to me that they are completely ticked off with the UK attitude moreso than their actual position.

If the EU do fold, the UK government/ministers/media are going to be literally unbearable.

Capt'n Midnight

ilovesmybrick wrote: »

I wonder how the Spanish General election is going to impact upon this. I find it hard to see a sitting Spanish government approving an extension to article 50 without serious commitments from Westminster. It would be electoral suicide to even indicate that they would make concessions on Gibraltar after the Cattilan issues.

There's even less votes in helping the British ex-pats.

edgecutter

Seth Brundle wrote: »

So yes, there will be sales of chlorinated chicken and hormone laced beef in the UK soon...

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1096445982865145857

The USA doesn't do free trade deals. They will do everything they can to protect certain sectors within the US economy while picking at the bones of Britain. Canada doesn't even have great trading arrangements with the US.

Seth Brundle

Tell us again how the German carmakers were to react to Brexit?

Porsche asks UK buyers to commit to 10% no-deal Brexit surcharge

downcow

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Tell us again how the German carmakers were to react to Brexit?

Porsche asks UK buyers to commit to 10% no-deal Brexit surcharge

"The car industry is particularly exposed to the risk of a no-deal Brexit, because its products attract relatively high tariffs"
If that is as bad as it gets for items that have 'high tariffs' then the worst case scenario isn't nearly as bad as some are leading us to believe

An Ciarraioch

SDP Nua appears less than inspiring in terms of the potential number and quality of its recruits - they'd be as well off actually joining the Lib Dems:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/15/uk-mps-intense-talks-setting-up-new-centrist-party-labour?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Seth Brundle

downcow wrote: »

"The car industry is particularly exposed to the risk of a no-deal Brexit, because its products attract relatively high tariffs"
If that is as bad as it gets for items that have 'high tariffs' then the worst case scenario isn't nearly as bad as some are leading us to believe

Tariffs can reach much higher than 10%. EU dairy tarrifs are almost 36%!
Coupled with higher unemployment and higher taxes to pay for it, will you be happy paying a lot more for goods just so you get to have a blue passport?

Capt'n Midnight

downcow wrote: »

"The car industry is particularly exposed to the risk of a no-deal Brexit, because its products attract relatively high tariffs"
If that is as bad as it gets for items that have 'high tariffs' then the worst case scenario isn't nearly as bad as some are leading us to believe

No one in the EU, Turkey , Japan or South Korea is going to buy a Vauxhall when they can get the identical Opel for 10% less.

fergiesfolly

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Tell us again how the German carmakers were to react to Brexit?

Porsche asks UK buyers to commit to 10% no-deal Brexit surcharge

It always seemed to me that luxury German car imports were an odd area for Brexiteers to attack.
People who can afford to pay 40-50 thousand +pounds for a car would hardly be likely to baulk at paying an extra 10% when the alternative is a Vauxhall or Nissan.

BluePlanet

fergiesfolly wrote: »

It always seemed to me that luxury German car imports were an odd area for Brexiteers to attack.
People who can afford to pay 40-50 thousand +pounds for a car would hardly be likely to baulk at paying an extra 10% when the alternative is a Vauxhall or Nissan.

I agree, it will make German cars more of a show of affluence in the UK.
They might sell less of them, but for a higher price.

First Up

A far bigger issue is disruption to the supply of components. The retail car market will look after itself but delays to JIT supplies will cripple the UK auto industry.

Harry Palmr

downcow wrote: »

"The car industry is particularly exposed to the risk of a no-deal Brexit, because its products attract relatively high tariffs"
If that is as bad as it gets for items that have 'high tariffs' then the worst case scenario isn't nearly as bad as some are leading us to believe

10% on a car is a massive wedge - Porsche might be able to expect customers to absorb the hike with little more than a shrug for a somewhat niche prestige marque but VW/Audi, BMW and Mercedes know it's enough to pose a significant threat to sales in the UK. While they are also seen as somewhat premium they've built their increased market share on affordable models competing with the likes of Ford, Vauxhall, Nissan, and these days the Koreans.

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

SDP Nua appears less than inspiring in terms of the potential number and quality of its recruits - they'd be as well off actually joining the Lib Dems:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/15/uk-mps-intense-talks-setting-up-new-centrist-party-labour?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

Exactly! When I read that story I wondered why the dissidents would want to try to form a party from scratch when they could probably find common cause within the Lib Dems. Sure there would be some tension and fear of a reverse takeover/merge (Labour/Democratic Left style) but it's far better that they gain some electoral gravity by all sitting under one well known name.

Sam Russell

fergiesfolly wrote: »

It always seemed to me that luxury German car imports were an odd area for Brexiteers to attack.
People who can afford to pay 40-50 thousand +pounds for a car would hardly be likely to baulk at paying an extra 10% when the alternative is a Vauxhall or Nissan.

If the new price rises by 10%, then so will the residue, so the actual cost of changing from a 3 year old car to a new car will not be the full 10% of the new car price, just 10% of the cost to upgrade. Not much more than some models rise due to inflation, fall in the pound, improved spec, etc.

Posh imported car sales will not suffer, but Nissan and Vauxhall cars are mainly exported (80%) and will suffer greatly. Reduced exports will mean job losses, and cost increases, and so falling profits or rising losses.

Ford have already said that they will pull out of the UK if no deal occurs.

Irishmale0399

Tick tock tick tock....they will all be driving Vauxhall, Jag and Landrover....

Harry Palmr

Sam Russell wrote: »

If the new price rises by 10%, then so will the residue, so the actual cost of changing from a 3 year old car to a new car will not be the full 10% of the new car price, just 10% of the cost to upgrade. Not much more than some models rise due to inflation, fall in the pound, improved spec, etc.

Posh imported car sales will not suffer, but Nissan and Vauxhall cars are mainly exported (80%) and will suffer greatly. Reduced exports will mean job losses, and cost increases, and so falling profits or rising losses.

Ford have already said that they will pull out of the UK if no deal occurs.

UK sales are 2.5 million units per year so one big company would be wise to stay! After all if imports cost more due to tariffs and weaker Sterling then buying British made cars must be a market.

downcow

Seth Brundle wrote: »

Tariffs can reach much higher than 10%. EU dairy tarrifs are almost 36%!

Yeah i understand that. but remainers only seem interested in quoting items with exceptionally high tariffs. I have heard the the average tariff across all items is between 2 & 3%. Can anyone confirm or deny this?

Sam Russell

Harry Palmr wrote: »

UK sales are 2.5 million units per year so one big company would be wise to stay! After all if imports cost more due to tariffs and weaker Sterling then buying British made cars must be a market.

Perhaps you might to have a chat with Ford, who have different ideas. RTE also carried the story.

But then what would they know?

Seth Brundle

Harry Palmr wrote: »

Sam Russell wrote: »

Ford have already said that they will pull out of the UK if no deal occurs.

UK sales are 2.5 million units per year so one big company would be wise to stay! After all if imports cost more due to tariffs and weaker Sterling then buying British made cars must be a market.

Ford will pull manufacturing out if the UK should they go for a hard Brexit (~13000 direct job losses).
They will still have their retail business in the UK.

downcow

Seth Brundle wrote: »

EU dairy tarrifs are almost 36%!

Its a little more complex than this. I understand 90% of NI milk goes south of the border to be processed in your factories and then 90% of the product is sold in the UK.
So will tariffs cancel themselves out or will factories move up to NI so product needs no tariffs?

Irishmale0399

How will Vauxhall, Jag and Landrover deal with cars produced in Europe (Germany, Austria, Czech Rep.)....surely those cars will have some sort of tax imposed on them also. Either the EU will stick an export levy on them or the UK will add the 10%...

downcow

Curious what the direction of peoples thinking is heading
A quick question. How certain are you that the EU will not modify the WA in any way to placate UK? I'd like two percentages ie one month ago and the other now

Mine

last month 50% Now 30%

Professor Moriarty

downcow wrote: »

Its a little more complex than this. I understand 90% of NI milk goes south of the border to be processed in your factories and then 90% of the product is sold in the UK.
So will tariffs cancel themselves out or will factories move up to NI so product needs no tariffs?

How long will it take to build those factories? Where will the capital to build them come from?

downcow

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

How long will it take to build those factories? Where will the capital come from?

I would have thought it was a no brainer for the company in the south to sell its factory at inflated rates to all the companies flooding into ROI post brexit and then buy one of the many empty factories up north at a knockdown price and convert it. Simples

RobMc59

Seth Brundle wrote: »

So yes, there will be sales of chlorinated chicken and hormone laced beef in the UK soon...

https://twitter.com/BBCWorld/status/1096445982865145857

That worrying but not as worrying as "did I eat any of that EU horsemeat that was sold as beef?"

Professor Moriarty

downcow wrote: »

I would have thought it was a no brainer for the company in the south to sell its factory at inflated rates to all the companies flooding into ROI post brexit and then buy one of the many empty factories up north at a knockdown price and convert it. Simples

Sure. Should take a week or two then sorted?

Inquitus

downcow wrote: »

Curious what the direction of peoples thinking is heading
A quick question. How certain are you that the EU will not modify the WA in any way to placate UK? I'd like two percentages ie one month ago and the other now

Mine

last month 50% Now 30%

Last month 90%, Now 95%