Snow Ice Warning for Ireland 29 Jan to 03 Feb 2019 *See Mod Note in OP *

derekon

munsterlegend wrote: »

Met Eireann covering all options with rain,sleet and snow for the week ahead. Going to be interesting but not expecting too much of the white stuff.

Expect nothing as that's likely what you will get!!

D

JanuarySnowstor

06z gfs is very dry run for Wednesday

prosaic

Benbulben in Sligo has light dusting to about 300 or 400 m

JanuarySnowstor

The met in UK have warnings out so only matter of time before Met Eireann issue something

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

The met in UK have warnings out so only matter of time before Met Eireann issue something

They are much more favoured than us though.

Meteorite58

A lot of uncertainty with exact forecasts due to the complex nature of disturbances transiting the country at times and the very deep areas of LP towards Thurs but looking through the ECM I would interpret it as being a cold week with hard frosts, wintry showers and spells of longer precipitation ,windy along coasts at times, considerable windchill at times. Wet snow on high ground, possible spells of more persistent snow towards later Tues, weds, Thurs. Probably falls of wintry precipitation on lower levels, how long it stays on the ground depends at what time of day, but probably not cold enough to accumulate except for higher elevations. Later Weds / Thurs big uncertainty but charts showing a possibility of a substantial dumping of snow .

Kermit.de.frog

There is a clear difference between the GFS and ECM for Tuesday which is only 48 hours out in terms of how far north precipitation gets across the country on Tuesday morning.

Both would bring some snowfall early Tuesday morning to southern parts but how far north that extends is an open question at the moment. Snow showers already in to the northwest of the country overnight Monday and probably accumulations there by morning. These extending to other areas later in the day.

Looks like a feast or famine week for snow with the feast often taking place within a kilometer of the famine.

Graces7

prosaic wrote: »

Benbulben in Sligo has light dusting to about 300 or 400 m

Nothing out here yet but the sky is snow coloured and heavy. Looks imminent; west mayo.offshore paradise

and if it comes in these temps it will stay.

Graces7

Meteorite58 wrote: »

A lot of uncertainty with exact forecasts due to the complex nature of disturbances transiting the country at times and the very deep areas of LP towards Thurs but looking through the ECM I would interpret it as being a cold week with hard frosts, wintry showers and spells of longer precipitation ,windy along coasts at times, considerable windchill at times. Wet snow on high ground, possible spells of more persistent snow towards later Tues, weds, Thurs. Probably falls of wintry precipitation on lower levels, how long it stays on the ground depends at what time of day, but probably not cold enough to accumulate except for higher elevations. Later Weds / Thurs big uncertainty but charts showing a possibility of a substantial dumping of snow .

sounds as it looks here... snow skies

Kermit.de.frog

There is a chance of some sleet and snow tonight in the early hours of the morning in the midlands and east. It's marginal and not a particularly active front but 100+ meters of elevation will assist.

squarecircles

not much mention of any significant/disruptive snowfall regarding tuesday/thursday,if any in mt forecast this morning.



TUESDAY ... Cloudy with sunny intervals. Winds could be fairly moderate unless a storm passing just to the south of Ireland goes a bit off track and spreads its strong winds inland. Rather cold, with scattered wintry showers[/B], some snow on hills. Lows near -2 C and highs near 5 C.

WEDNESDAY ... Windy and raw with mixed sleety falls of rain, wet snow or hail, in blustery east to northeast winds, temperatures steady near 4 or 5 C but colder on higher ground especially after any snow accumulates.

THURSDAY ... Windy, cold, some further sleet or snow, then partial clearing for parts of the north and west, more frequent wintry showers in east and south. Temperatures remaining steady around 4 or 5 C.

FRIDAY ... Brighter intervals and cold with a strong northeast wind at times, risk of snow near east coast in streamers. Lows near -3 C and highs near 3 C.

SATURDAY ... Sunny intervals, cold. Lows near -4 C and highs near 4 C.

FURTHER OUTLOOK ... This cold, unsettled pattern will continue for the first half of February, it appears, with similar trends, a few days of cloudy, windy and showery weather with some risk of snow or sleet, and a few days of brighter cold weather, and perhaps one or two more brief intrusions of milder air masses. Temperatures will be generally about 1 to 2 degrees below average but not so cold that we can guarantee significant snowfalls, away from higher slopes. You would have to think that if this pattern locks in for weeks, sooner or later everything will align and snow will happen at lower elevations.

glightning

Snow flakes falling outside here at the minute in Ballinderry, Co.Antrim. Just a very light and short shower with medium sized flakes blowing around. Seemed to be entirely of snow rather than any rain or sleet.

Gonzo

GFS has snow risk reduced in eastern areas on Tuesday. Showers look well scattered in eastern coastal counties. If that low pressure tracks a bit further north, maybe some eastern areas could get a fall of snow. Wednesday looks dry too. Thursday and Friday have alot of precipitation but looks incredibly marginal.

GFS ensemble run also showing increasing confidence in a return to mild conditions after February 6th with above average temperatures.

esposito

Gonzo wrote: »

GFS ensemble run also showing increasing confidence in a return to mild conditions after February 6th with above average temperatures.

You had to ruin it didn't you:pac:

Wouldn't take that as gospel with all the chopping and changing in the models lately anyway

Gonzo

esposito wrote: »

You had to ruin it didn't you:pac:

Wouldn't take that as gospel with all the chopping and changing in the models lately anyway

There is definitely no guarantee the return to mild will happen after the 6th. Currently there is signs of that, if it shows consistently over the next week then it will become more certain. The 'return' to mild is still 10 days away, way out in FI.

derekon

Gonzo wrote: »

GFS has snow risk reduced in eastern areas on Tuesday. Showers look well scattered in eastern coastal counties. If that low pressure tracks a bit further north, maybe some eastern areas could get a fall of snow. Wednesday looks dry too. Thursday and Friday have alot of precipitation but looks incredibly marginal.

GFS ensemble run also showing increasing confidence in a return to mild conditions after February 6th with above average temperatures.

Just cold rain for Leinster this week I would think. Bear that in mind and you won't be disappointed. Dublin gets close on NOTHING from cold westerlies. As for bitter easterlies? Dublin is probably the best place in the country for those. Think Airport closed, M50 snowbound, utter chaos.....

D

Gonzo

derekon wrote: »

Just cold rain for Leinster this week I would think. Bear that in mind and you won't be disappointed. Dublin gets close on NOTHING from cold westerlies. As for bitter easterlies? Dublin is probably the best place in the country for those. Think Airport closed, M50 snowbound, utter chaos.....

D

I'm expecting a mostly dry week here till about Thursday, but I could be proven wrong. We will need luck with those low pressures for decent precipitation in eastern coastal counties this week.

Gaoth Laidir

Here I go again, but I wouldn't be too confident in the GFS parallel model's handling of cold outbreaks no more than I would the original's. Yesterday's 18Z run for 850 hPa geopotential and temperature at Castor Bay at 00Z last night (so just 6 hours ahead) forecasted around 1250 m and a temperature of below -7 °C. The actual radiosonde data http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/sounding?region=europe&TYPE=TEXT%3ALIST&YEAR=2019&MONTH=01&FROM=2700&TO=2700&STNM=03918
show the geopotential to be about right (1251 m) but the temperature was only -5.3 °C, about 2 degrees warmer than forecast.

This is what I harp on and on about. If it can't get it right just 6 hours ahead then how can anyone put any stock on the charts for the rest of the week? As Gonzo posted yesterday, the 12Z precip map for 00Z showed snow over much of the country, but of course that didn't materialise. The GFS forecast sounding contradicted the precip map and showed snow only above a few hundred metres. So those precip charts are nonsense, it would seem.

derekon

Gonzo wrote: »

I'm expecting a mostly dry week here till about Thursday, but I could be proven wrong. We will need luck with those low pressures for decent precipitation in eastern coastal counties this week.

In other words if you live near the east coast, don't be going around telling relatives and friends it will be snowing this week or you'll likely have egg on your face!!!

D

SleetAndSnow

How are we looking down here in Cork City/ the south in general? Im getting confused by all the runs, one minute they show us buried and the next they show us dry and under sleet! If the channel low was a bit further north I assume we would have a bit more precip.

Graces7

Longing for just enough snow to build a snowman.. getting too old to put it off much longer! west mayo offshore paradise

sryanbruen

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Im getting confused by all the runs, one minute they show us buried and the next they show us dry and under sleet!

Some have been enjoying the rollercoaster, I most certainly have not. Been a nightmare for forecasting in the past month. Really want to get off.

UsedToWait

sryanbruen wrote: »

Some have been enjoying the rollercoaster, I most certainly have not. Been a nightmare for forecasting in the past month. Really want to get off.

Eh, you could just take a break from it?

emo72

sryanbruen wrote: »

Some have been enjoying the rollercoaster, I most certainly have not. Been a nightmare for forecasting in the past month. Really want to get off.

Is this a hobby for you? Don't let it rule you. Walk away

Graces7

sryanbruen wrote: »

Some have been enjoying the rollercoaster, I most certainly have not. Been a nightmare for forecasting in the past month. Really want to get off.

(((HUGS)))

Take a break; it has been a long winter... go somewhere... sunny ! Blessings and peace and thankyou for all you do.

SeaBreezes

sryanbruen wrote: »

Some have been enjoying the rollercoaster, I most certainly have not. Been a nightmare for forecasting in the past month. Really want to get off.

I know!! Emotionally drained :-) and I'm only a spectator! For you and the serious weather heads it must be exhausting!

But as Graces said thank ye all! Wouldn't be anything to watch without ye..

Snowbiee21

sryanbruen wrote: »

Some have been enjoying the rollercoaster, I most certainly have not. Been a nightmare for forecasting in the past month. Really want to get off.

Yes it has been a pain , but things don’t happen easy around this little island, to get what we want we normally have to wait in vague

sryanbruen

Snowbiee21 wrote: »

Yes it has been a pain , but things don’t happen easy around this little island, to get what we want we normally have to wait in vague

It's not what I want (I could care less about that), it's at least reasonable confidence in forecasting.

Anyway, getting off topic....

DOCARCH

On topic....

Light graupel shower now in Dublin 16.

Edit: Just light rain now...started as graupel.

Kermit.de.frog

The snow is coming, everybody remain calm

munsterlegend

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The snow is coming, everybody remain calm

Yes for the Galtees and Wicklow mountains!

Oh and Mountaintyman in Sligo!

highdef

North Kildare and the 3rd shower of the day has passed over. Latest one was the heaviest....nothing spectacular but it was a mix of sleet and graupel.

In other news, there's more precip moving into western areas than I was expecting.

Snowbiee21

highdef wrote: »

North Kildare and the 3rd shower of the day has passed over. Latest one was the heaviest....nothing spectacular but it was a mix of sleet and graupel.

In other news, there's more precip moving into western areas than I was expecting.

I’ve noticed that , quite a bit alright

Graces7

highdef wrote: »

North Kildare and the 3rd shower of the day has passed over. Latest one was the heaviest....nothing spectacular but it was a mix of sleet and graupel.

In other news, there's more precip moving into western areas than I was expecting.

on which positive note I am closing down to try to catch up on last night's missed sleep. I expect to be enabled to build a large SNOWPERSON when it gets light tomorrow

OK?

OK!!!!

Sleep well snow-watchers..! You deserve it..

Kermit.de.frog

highdef wrote: »

North Kildare and the 3rd shower of the day has passed over. Latest one was the heaviest....nothing spectacular but it was a mix of sleet and graupel.

In other news, there's more precip moving into western areas than I was expecting.

As I posted earlier that will weaken as it crosses the country but by first light tomorrow could be some sleet and snow in that for the midlands and east but should be light enough...

highdef

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

As I posted earlier that will weaken as it crosses the country but by first light tomorrow could be some sleet and snow in that for the midlands and east but should be light enough...

Yeah, not expecting any accumulations from it. I'll be up early in the morning so will see anything that is falling from the sky.

pnpweirdo

Im in the centre of that weather front moving in from the west and there has been barely a dip of rain out of it.

JCX BXC

pnpweirdo wrote: »

Im in the centre of that weather front moving in from the west and there has been barely a dip of rain out of it.

Dirty day in West Clare.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: As suggested updated Thread title to include Thurs 31st .

Meteorite58

Well ICON certainly displaying a big wintry / snow event for Thurs on the current run. I'm not saying it is going to happen , just showing what it is modelling atm.

A very deep LP , 974 hPa crossing the country slowly whilst pivoting and carrying plenty of moisture. 850 hPa Temps about -4 or -5C . Low Temps from 1 to 4C generally, falling back to freezing early in the night. If this happen would expect heavy wet snow, sleet in some areas and rain also.

Again just to show what the model is displaying.

ECM 12Z rolling out now.

Drumpot

What is it about the east coast of Meath (right on water) where we always seem to miss the worst of wind and snow? There can be all sorts of stuff going on around us but it’s like there’s some magic coat around our area!

I suppose I shouldn’t complain but just curious!

Gonzo

looks like Thursday will be rain or sleet for most of Meath and Dublin. I'd say it will be very similar to the event on 11th December 2017. Best chances of lying snow would be about 40-50km inland from the Irish Sea. Thursday is still a while away so hopefully more upgrades before then.

sryanbruen

Drumpot wrote: »

What is it about the east coast of Meath (right on water) where we always seem to miss the worst of wind and snow? There can be all sorts of stuff going on around us but it’s like there’s some magic coat around our area!

I suppose I shouldn’t complain but just curious!

Onshore winds bringing in relatively milder air from the sea (sea is warmer than land in Winter) making it too mild for snow to fall.

Andrew00

We’re all gonner die

JCX BXC

The ICON suggesting such scenes is certainly increasing my confidence on a significant portion of the country seeing snow on Thursday. If only those charts were +24 hours!

An easterly wind too, keeping the wind offshore blessed!

RocketRaccoon

I'm sorry to be one of "those" but could someone simplify it for me regarding potential snow in Clare in the next few days?

Andrew00

“Extremely” cold according to met eireann with disruptive snow

JCX BXC

RocketRaccoon wrote: »

I'm sorry to be one of "those" but could someone simplify it for me regarding potential snow in Clare in the next few days?

Not really, we're still trying to figure it out ourselves!

A part which is very important is where in Clare you are, as the weather can be simultaneously completely different in Kilrush or Ennistymon as it is in Killaloe or Lisseycasey (a notorious spot for having different weather to nearby areas).

esposito

Andrew00 wrote: »

“Extremely” cold according to met eireann with disruptive snow

"Extremely cold" would mean bitter easterlies with sub zero daytime max temps
The upcoming cold spell is mainly from the Northwest with an Atlantic influence.
Wednesday night there looks to be a severe frost with lows of -4 to -6 C

Meteorite58

Andrew00 wrote: »

“Extremely” cold according to met eireann with disruptive snow

Mod Note: Where is Met Eireann saying Extremely cold with disruptive snow.