All Weather Winter Warmer

Mostly Harmless

Forgot the write up sorry. Bellick ridden much more prominently than been case in past, looked to be in with every chance at top of straight but faded towards finish, did not get the clearest of runs but was already in trouble before that and likely does not stay the trip.

-4pts on the day

Staked 181.00
Returned 243.30
P/L 62.30
ROI 34.42%

Will have a rattle at Southwell tomorrow

Theonly way

Hi MH.

Follow the AW with a passion .Thus my data and comments.

The southwell track :
Data + fav = 78% place
Best bias + adv= 5furlong drawn low.
Wind factor at that track because they use silica sand .I.e beach sand which shifts.

The jocks and others pay the guy who harrows that track.
Fact.

Theonly way

Distance: 1000m
draw Wins SR% PL PL% number
1 146 17.1 378 44.3 853
2 116 13.4 347 40 868
3 101 11.7 328 38 864
4 124 14.3 328 37.7 870
5 78 9.3 257 30.5 843
6 82 10 282 34.3 821
7 65 8.6 211 28.1 752

Theonly way

Chookie Dunedin .

Aurora1966

Theonly way wrote:

The jocks and others pay the guy who harrows that track. Fact.

Good news thanks for sharing.

Mostly Harmless

Don't want to be a bastard about this but I do want to keep this thread uncluttered and on track, so can everyone cop on and stop posting nonsense in here please.

Mostly Harmless

12.20 Southwell: Dolly Dupree(25/1 Ladbrokes, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW
Best run to date on fibresand debut last time out when staying on well over a furlong shorter than today. Poets Voice progeny tend to go well on the surface so happy enough to believe that there was no fluke about that improved effort and extra distance today an obvious additional positive. That last race was of an incredibly low standard and this is definitely a good bit tougher but is better off with Bawtry Lady (4th in that race and subsequently ran well) today and 25/1 looks big about a potentially improving filly that is unexposed on the surface.

Mostly Harmless

2.50 Southwell: Thunder Buddy (9/2 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 2pts EW
Bred to be suited by the fibresand and duly improved for switch to the surface on last two runs, including for todays jockey on penultimate start. Has been hit with a 5lb rise for win last time but did it in the style of a horse that still has a bit in hand. Today's race is of a very similar standard to the one it won last time and will be very hard to keep out of frame if reproducing that effort but still has fair bit of potential to improve on that anyway. Likely to have been a max bet at best early prices but missed some of that now but still the best bet of the day in my opinion and fully expect a very big run.

Mostly Harmless

1.55 Southwell: Mixboy (4/1 365, BV) 1pt Win
9 yo former NH bred horses are hardly the typical types for the fibresand but did run well on only previous start here. Has the right sort of running style for the surface and same connections have done well with the ones they have chosen to campaign on the fibresand in recent times. Two ahead of my selection in market both very impressive on recent wins but priced accordingly and thought 4s about the classiest horse in race with most potential to improve on surface represented small bit of value.

Mostly Harmless

1.25 Southwell: Something Lucky (11/1 Generally) 1pt Win
Decent record over C&D and drops back in class after finding class 3s bit too tough going on two recent starts. Previous run to that when beaten less than a length in same class as today would give him every chance here. Tends to get behind early so a smaller field today should help his chances, not one to be relying on by any means but 11s plenty big enough and worth a small bet.

Mostly Harmless

Not much went well today, Thunder Buddy got 4th to save the wipeout at least.

-5.2pts on the day.

Totals
Staked 190.00
Returned 247.10
P/L 57.10
ROI 30.05%

Theonly way

Fact +result
Fav placed 4 from 6 .= 66%

Not non sense.

Theonly way

Furthermore you may have a good chance tomorrow as wolver is not a place for fav backers in the place.

Wolver place favs = 56%

Good look al guessers.

Earendil

Theonly way wrote: »

Furthermore you may have a good chance tomorrow as wolver is not a place for fav backers in the place.

Wolver place favs = 56%

Good look al guessers.

That’s fair enough. Not being an arsehole here, but why not start your own thread. MH has stuck the neck out and done a P/L , and it’s going well for him. Let’s leave it to him.

Theonly way

Agree .
Thanks

Mostly Harmless

No bets tomorrow anyway.

Mostly Harmless

Today:
4.45: Little Miss Kodi (10/1 Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
5.15: Compton Prince (12/1 Generally) 1pt Win
7.45: Wilson (8/1 365) 1pt EW

Mostly Harmless

Little Miss Kodi managed to finish one out of the places like any good each way bet. Compton Prince did usual bastardry. Wilson found it all a bit tougher than race won lto. Nothing to cheer.

Totals
Staked 195.00
Returned 247.10
P/L 52.10
ROI 26.72%

ROI back to something more realistic now. Not sure will have time to do write ups much during next week or two but will continue to stick up the selections.

Mostly Harmless

6.00 Kempton: Rock Of Estonia (14/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
6.30 Kempton: Doc Sportello (7/1 365, BV) 2.5pts Win

CH3OH

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

6.00 Kempton: Rock Of Estonia (14/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
6.30 Kempton: Doc Sportello (7/1 365, BV) 2.5pts Win

Well done

10/1 sounds even better

DubInTheWest

Well done MH top notch stuff as always.

NaiveMelodies

Nice!

Thought you were unlucky with Kingscotes ride on the first one.

STB.

You've an eye for the A/W MH. Top drawer picking.


Your LTO's are going in as well. You were keen on Cashel this time last week and he was second at 16/1 that day. Won the opener at Kempton tonight easily. 4/1

Mostly Harmless

Thanks all, unbelievable SP really. I am on mobile today but will update figures once I get back - should be a new high point of P/L for the thread anyway.

Few interesting ones at Newcastle today, probably have a couple of bets.

Mostly Harmless

3.55 Newcastle: Brokopondo (28/1 Ladbrokes, Coral, Betfred) 1pt EW
4.25 Newcastle: Effernock Fizz (25/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 2pts EW
6.55 Newcastle: Another Angel (8/1 Generally) 1pt Win

jj mac

Another angel gets up. Top stuff MH

CH3OH

Thanks MH
NICE 8/1 winner

Mostly Harmless

+25.5pts yesterday
+2pts today

Totals
Staked 206.50
Returned 283.60
P/L 77.10
ROI 37.34%

Mostly Harmless

Not a whole lot I liked today.

6.30 Dundalk: Paddytheirishman (9/1 Coral paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
8.30 Dundalk: Togoville (20/1 Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW

Mostly Harmless

One at Kempton too.

4.10 Kempton: Knockout Blow (6/1 BV, Hills) 1.5pts EW