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All Weather Winter Warmer

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    #332
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Kempton stuff:
    4.45 Kempton: Dawn Commando (28/1 Hills, Boyles) 1pt EW
    5.45 Kempton: Probability (9/4 365, Hills) 2pts Win
    6.45 Kempton: Family Fortunes (9/2 365, Hills) 2pts EW
    8.15 Kempton: Rail Dancer (7/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW

    Over 20pts on the table today, could get messy...


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    #333
    Andrew00
    Registered Users Posts: 2,484 ✭✭✭Andrew00


    Mostly Harmless wrote: »
    Kempton stuff:
    4.45 Kempton: Dawn Commando (28/1 Hills, Boyles) 1pt EW
    5.45 Kempton: Probability (9/4 365, Hills) 2pts Win
    6.45 Kempton: Family Fortunes (9/2 365, Hills) 2pts EW
    8.15 Kempton: Rail Dancer (7/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW

    Over 20pts on the table today, could get messy...

    I thought Probability was a good thing but he’s drifted from 5/4 out to 9/4


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    #334
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Andrew00 wrote: »
    I thought Probability was a good thing but he’s drifted from 5/4 out to 9/4
    Think mostly because Distant Mirage has been backed, wouldn't worry me.


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    #335
    CH3OH
    Registered Users Posts: 7,290 ✭✭✭CH3OH


    6.45 Kempton: Family Fortunes (9/2 365, Hills) 2pts EW

    Got me out of a hole SP 6/1

    Thanks


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    #336
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    CH3OH wrote: »
    6.45 Kempton: Family Fortunes (9/2 365, Hills) 2pts EW

    Got me out of a hole SP 6/1

    Thanks
    Got me out of a hole too.


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    #337
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Place from Big Country and win from Family Fortunes leaves things slightly up for day. Southwell tomorrow.

    +0.4pts

    Totals
    Staked 324.00
    Returned 455.17
    P/L 131.17
    ROI 40.48%


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    #338
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    1.00 Southwell: Dolly Dupree (11/1 Generally) 1pt EW
    1.35 Southwell: Pearl Acclaim (14/1 365) 1pt Win / Coiste Bodhar (33/1 365, Paddy) 0.5pts Win
    2.10 Southwell: Westfield Warrior (40/1 Generally) 0.5pts EW
    2.45 Southwell: Foolaad (4/1 Generally) 2pts Win
    3.20 Southwell: Incredible Dream (10/1 BV, Coral) 1.5pts Win
    3.50 Southwell: Luath (8/1 Ladbrokes, BV) 1.5pts Win / Going Native (16/1 Generally) 0.5pts Win


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    #339
    Kirk Van Houten
    Registered Users Posts: 780 ✭✭✭Kirk Van Houten


    Have you changed strategy MH? Previously it seemed to be a few big priced longshots where as the last few days it seems to be a lot more bets and more lower odds?
    Just a case of horses showing up on research or a deliberate move to stake more?
    Great tipping by the way.


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    #340
    NaiveMelodies
    Registered Users Posts: 3,172 ✭✭✭NaiveMelodies


    The more he backs, the more he wins! Haha fairplay lad


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    #341
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Kirk Van Houten wrote: »
    Have you changed strategy MH? Previously it seemed to be a few big priced longshots where as the last few days it seems to be a lot more bets and more lower odds?
    Just a case of horses showing up on research or a deliberate move to stake more?
    Great tipping by the way.
    No conscious decision to change anything, normally look at all the races at Southwell and Dundalk and have a bet in most of the handicaps, then the other UK stuff depends on how much time I have available, other than that just a case of a quite few tracker horses running recently.


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    #342
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    +5.20pts on the day

    Totals
    Staked 334.00
    Returned 470.37
    P/L 136.37
    ROI 40.83%


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    #343
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    3.00 Chelmsford: Gone With The Wind (14/1 365, Hills) 1pt EW
    3.30 Chelmsford: Knockout Blow (5/1 Paddy) 2pts EW
    6.25 Wolverhampton: Cuckoos Calling (10/1 Generally) 1pt EW


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    #344
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    All three went off bit shorter yesterday and all three unplaced.

    -8pts on the day

    Totals
    Staked 342.00
    Returned 470.37
    P/L 128.37
    ROI 37.54%

    Probably have one bet at Newcastle today.


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    #345
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    5.45 Newcastle: Katheefa (8/1 Generally) 1.5pts EW


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    #346
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Katheefa weakened very tamely in first time blinkers yesterday, was well backed on the show but not one I would be inclined to follow after that display.

    Totals
    Staked 345.00
    Returned 470.37
    P/L 125.37
    ROI 36.34%

    Two at Wolverhampton today and will post very soon.


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    #347
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    6.45 Wolverhampton: Mr Top Hat (7/1 365, BV) 1.5pts Win
    7.15 Wolverhampton: Sea Shack (10/1 Paddy) 3pts EW


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    #348
    Gavin "shels"
    Registered Users Posts: 17,963 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    Odds being hit on Sea Shack.


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    #349
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Gavin shels wrote: »
    Odds being hit on Sea Shack.
    Thought it should be more like a 9/2-5/1 chance myself.


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    #350
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Sea Shack went off 6/1 and ran a good race but no match for the short priced fav, who looks a transformed horse in last two runs. Mr Top Hat did not show much.

    +1.5pts on the day

    Totals
    Staked 352.50
    Returned 479.37
    P/L 126.87
    ROI 35.99%

    Unlikely to be much action for the foreseeable future, hopefully Dundalk goes ahead tomorrow.


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    #351
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    5.30 Dundalk: Connemera Queen (20/1 Ladbrokes paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
    6.00 Dundalk: Evasive Power (12/1 Genrally) 1pt Win
    6.30 Dundalk: Sevenleft (14/1 Generally) 1pt EW
    8.00 Dundalk: Sleepy Head (3/1 Generally) 2pts Win


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    #352
    TheMilkyPirate
    Registered Users Posts: 5,987 ✭✭✭TheMilkyPirate


    That sleepy head race is awful 3/1 looks decent.

    On another note I loved your write ups MH will they return? I appreciate the extra time and effort they take

    Evasive power NR


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    #353
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Just the place for Sevenleft. Sleepy Head continues to find ones to beat it and Connemera Queen presumably not trying particularly hard.

    -2.2pts for Friday

    Totals
    Staked 358.50
    Returned 483.17
    P/L 124.67
    ROI 34.78%


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    #354
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    TheMilkyPirate wrote: »
    On another note I loved your write ups MH will they return? I appreciate the extra time and effort they take
    Was finding it unsustainable time wise, can take over an hour on days where there are several bets and while I am not a pro by any means there is little value in my flagging up angles/edges for free


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    #355
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Back in action at Southwell today with bets in most races. Will be posting them once have them on.


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    #356
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Non runners have not helped things but here we go.

    2.00 Southwell: Sir Geoffrey (50/1 Generally) 0.5pts Win
    2.30 Southwell: Hidden Depths (10/3 BV, Coral) 1pt Win
    3.00 Southwell: Second Page (8/1 Generally) 2pts Win
    3.30 Southwell: Baron Run (13/2 BV, Coral) 1pt Win


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    #357
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Bit of an annoying day with Second Page and Baron Run both finishing 2nd, Second Page particularly annoying but that's the nature of the game, there will be other days.

    -4.5pts on the day

    Totals
    Staked 363.00
    Returned 483.17
    P/L 120.17
    ROI 33.10%


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    #358
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Nothing today


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    #359
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Morning all. Dundalk stuff:
    5.00 Dundalk: Ty Rock Brandy (20/1 BV paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
    6.30 Dundalk: Voyageofdiscovery (9/1 Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW
    7.00 Dundalk: Master Speaker (14/1 Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
    8.30 Dundalk: Yarraman (11/2 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 2pts EW


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    #360
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    And one rotten each way bet at Newcastle:
    5.15 Newcastle: Thorntoun Lady (25/1 365, BV) 1pt EW


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    #361
    Mostly Harmless
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,192 ✭✭✭Mostly Harmless


    Mostly Harmless wrote: »
    Morning all. Dundalk stuff:
    5.00 Dundalk: Ty Rock Brandy (20/1 BV paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
    6.30 Dundalk: Voyageofdiscovery (9/1 Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW
    7.00 Dundalk: Master Speaker (14/1 Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
    8.30 Dundalk: Yarraman (11/2 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 2pts EW


    Yarraman a NR


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