All Weather Winter Warmer

Mostly Harmless

Running late, here's the Dundalk bets:

5.00 Dundalk: Smart Stinger (8/1 Ladbrokes) 1.5pts EW
5.30 Dundalk: Mr Moondance (40/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
6.30 Dundalk: Silk Cravat (16/1 Generally) 1.5pts Win
7.00 Dundalk: Rock On Dandy (12/1 Generally) 1pt Win
8.00 Dundalk: Quite Subunctious (25/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
8.30 Dundalk: Tiernaur General (9/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW

Write ups to follow.

Mostly Harmless

5.00 Dundalk: Smart Stinger (8/1 Ladbrokes) 1.5pts EW
Always likely to find it tough going when 7lbs out of handicap on most recent start but still ran well enough anyway, back in the handicap proper today and reproduction of either previous two runs (when second to Alfredo Arcano and third behind Red All Star) would put her bang in the reckoning in this race. First try at minimum trip since maiden days but has looked to have more than enough pace for it on basis of runs over 6f. Lots of forward going sorts in line up so should get a nice tow round in 3rd or 4th on rail from stall 1 with Slattery's 7lb claim a handy bonus too. Thought should be more like somewhere round 5/1 or 11/2 and no reason why should not run big race and go very close.

Mostly Harmless

5.30 Dundalk: Mr Moondance (40/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
Small nibbles in the market early on last time in a similar race over 2f further than today. Could only manage a midfield finish there but did meet some trouble in running in the straight. Been mostly campaigned over jumps at a lowly level for current yard but has been holding form reasonably well in that sphere and best flat form (albeit a long time ago and for a different yard) was at around todays trip. Half to Rosenborg Rider who has some serious attitude issues but has won round Dundalk and looks one of few in field with potential to find some significant improvement on recent efforts.

Mostly Harmless

6.30 Dundalk: Silk Cravat (16/1 Generally) 1.5pts Win
Bit of a bridle horse who tends to find very little when push comes to shove but has been pretty consistent in runs at Dundalk. Good run last time when beaten less than two lengths in 4th in a similar race to today. Three that finished in front of him all reopposing today but gets a decent swing at weights with winner and that run came on back of break of few months so reasonable to expect some improvement in terms of fitness today. Billyfairplay dropping out of the line up reduces competition for lead and looks sure to be on or close to the pace from stall 4. Had it priced up at 10/1 or thereabouts.

Mostly Harmless

7.00 Dundalk: Rock On Dandy (12/1 Generally) 1pt Win
Reasonable effort on return to Dundalk after spell over jumps last time and looks fairly weighted off 76 on form at Dundalk during last winter. Last run was over 2m and although has won a race over that trip here, looks to stretch it's stamina a bit and think is at best when racing bit more prominently over todays trip and is 2/4 at Dundalk over the 1m4f trip. Open race in which many can be given a shout but thought this one was at least a couple of points too big and worth a small bet.

Mostly Harmless

8.00 Dundalk: Quite Subunctious (25/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
Was on Spanish Dawn when won impressively here on last run but no way in the world it should be shorter than 2/1 given that will have to be held up from a wide draw so have to oppose it with something. Not really sure what to oppose it with though to be honest. One I have landed on is Quite Subunctious, no idea if really wants the step up to 10f but has come down to a mark that really should be competitive off on sort of form that showed in maidens. Easy to put line through most recent run at Southwell when looking hopeless on surface and has assistance of Ben Coen. Worth a speculative punt at a big price in hope that stamina holds out.

Mostly Harmless

8.30 Dundalk: Tiernaur General (9/1 Paddy, Boyles paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
Outran odds of 66/1 when showing first glimmer of any ability on most recent run over 2f shorter than today. That was first run for over 2 years so reasonable to expect him to improve on that today provided can avoid the bounce factor. Stayed on well from an unpromisiing position in that race so todays extra distance should help too. Hard to know what to expect but if that sort of form can be reproduced then should be winning a race sooner rather than later off a basement mark and seems significant that Harry Rogers has persevered with the horse after such a long time off the course.

Shanee.

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

5.00 Dundalk: Smart Stinger (8/1 Ladbrokes) 1.5pts EW
Always likely to find it tough going when 7lbs out of handicap on most recent start but still ran well enough anyway, back in the handicap proper today and reproduction of either previous two runs (when second to Alfredo Arcano and third behind Red All Star) would put her bang in the reckoning in this race. First try at minimum trip since maiden days but has looked to have more than enough pace for it on basis of runs over 6f. Lots of forward going sorts in line up so should get a nice tow round in 3rd or 4th on rail from stall 1 with Slattery's 7lb claim a handy bonus too. Thought should be more like somewhere round 5/1 or 11/2 and no reason why should not run big race and go very close.

Ran well in 2nd. Touched 1.23 on betfair :eek:

Mostly Harmless

All downhill after Smart Stinger got nabbed close home. Quite Subunctious got close to landing the 4th place but rest all ran poorly really.

-7.3pts on the day

Totals
Staked 152.00
Returned 214.30
P/L 62.30
ROI 40.99%

Mostly Harmless

Will be leaving tomorrow well alone and unlikely to bother with Newcastle on Sunday either

NaiveMelodies

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

All downhill after Smart Stinger got nabbed close home. Quite Subunctious got close to landing the 4th place but rest all ran poorly really.

-7.3pts on the day

Totals
Staked 152.00
Returned 214.30
P/L 62.30
ROI 40.99%

QS back to a mile maybe? Ran pretty well but didn't look to see out the trip.

Mostly Harmless

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

QS back to a mile maybe? Ran pretty well but didn't look to see out the trip.

Would look the logical move yes. Clarke's horses are a complete mystery to me though.

NaiveMelodies

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Would look the logical move yes. Clarke's horses are a complete mystery to me though.

Absolutely , has a reasonable string of horses that seem to be well in but find it very hard to put faith in him.

Mostly Harmless

One today:
7.15 Wolverhampton: Navadir (8/1 365) 1.5pts Win

Write up to follow.

Mostly Harmless

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

7.15 Wolverhampton: Navadir (8/1 365) 1.5pts Win

Improved with every start in novice company and giving impression that would benefit from a longer trip. Was beaten a fair distance in third last time but front two are probably above average and unlikely to be meeting anything of that sort of calibre in a class 6 handicap round here. Fenjal looks very opposable at top of market on basis that best form has been at Southwell and looks a bit of a rogue anyway. Gets an extra furlong and a bit to race over today and although that may well still be bit short of ideal distance, no surprise to see marked improvement on handicap debut and 8s looked a bit too big to me.

Mostly Harmless

Contrary to previous post, am doing one other for today:
4.15 Wolverhampton: Castlerea Tess (33/1 Generally) 1pt EW
Recent form figures look poor enough on face of it but has had viable excuses for last three below par efforts, having been drawn wide on last two runs and nearly coming down leaving stalls on run before that. Back up in trip for first time in while today and is questionable if fully gets the 7f trip, but should at least be able to get in to the lead early over the trip in field without many other front runners and could well outrun big odds off lowest mark for some time if that is the case.

robbiezero

Johnny_Fontane wrote: »

and taceec....

won pretty nicely today.

Mostly Harmless

Navadir 2nd after looked to idle once hitting front, travelled like best horse in race but probably needs delivering bit later than was case today. Castlerea Tess never involved, will be other days for her once she refinds some sort of form.

-3.5pts on the day

Staked 155.50
Returned 214.30
P/L 58.80
ROI 37.81%

madmax72

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

One today:
7.15 Wolverhampton: Navadir (8/1 365) 1.5pts Win

Write up to follow.

Unlucky thought he ran a bit green

Mostly Harmless

madmax72 wrote: »

Unlucky thought he ran a bit green

Inexperience definitely not helped for sure, fact they have her in a hood since second start suggests probably got a few quirks too. Looks to have bit of ability based on todays effort though.

HarshOstrich

In the 5.15 Newcastle is dynamo Walt not a ridiculous price @ 28/1 he’s a hold up performer into stiff headwind tonight,finds loads for pressure and loads of pace on, I’m expecting a place at least.

Mostly Harmless

Far too many bets at Newcastle today:
4.45 Newcastle: Woodside Wonder (3/1 Generally) 2pts Win
5.15 Newcastle: Watchable (9/1 Generally) 1pt EW
6.15 Newcastle: Poppy In The Wind (11/2 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW

Will get round to doing write ups at some stage this afternoon.

Mostly Harmless

HarshOstrich wrote: »

In the 5.15 Newcastle is dynamo Walt not a ridiculous price @ 28/1 he’s a hold up performer into stiff headwind tonight,finds loads for pressure and loads of pace on, I’m expecting a place at least.

Can definitely see the angle at the price, mark possibly slightly on the high side but certainly bit overpriced at 28s/33s. Have bet Watchable now though so will be leaving it myself, hopefully one or the other obliges!

Cherry_Cola

I'm on Atletico in the 5.15.

2ndcoming

Ah Woodside Wonder, chanced upon his massive journey taken to Kempton the last day and stuck a fiver e/w on at 40s, the rest as they say is history
:) lovely flukey little spot.

Edit: I see he's had a couple outings already since that one...

Mostly Harmless

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

4.45 Newcastle: Woodside Wonder (3/1 Generally) 2pts Win

Beaten little more than a length in a muddling race at Lingfield last time out when running off the same mark as today. This is officially one class higher than that contest, but that is in name only as nothing as highly rated as Ishan Queen or K Club in opposition today, so could well have a bit of a class edge over this lot. Is just about the only one in line up without some sort of questions to answer and should not be too much pace on early which will also help. Happy to oppose three main market rivals as Mardle looked to improve markedly last time but is debatable if can reproduce that same level of form off stiffish opening mark of 80; Zip never won a race and is now running in toughest race to date, failed to get job done at Southwell last twice despite being bred to be best suited by the fibresand; Seductive Moment beat absolutely nothing last time, form before that looks weak and easy to oppose under penalty today.

Mostly Harmless

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

5.15 Newcastle: Watchable (9/1 Generally) 1pt EW

Rated a good bit higher a couple of years ago and has shown that fair amount of ability remains on recent efforts. Travelled like the winner at Southwell last time when out battled close home by Moonraker. Ran a cracking race on most recent start at Newcastle (three runs ago) in similar race to today to finish 2nd, beaten half a length in a race that clearly favored the hold up horses, meets the winner of that race on 3lb better terms today but is a much bigger price for some reason. Competitive race but thought should be at least a point or two shorter and going to be very hard to keep out of the frame on recent form.

Mostly Harmless

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

6.15 Newcastle: Poppy In The Wind (11/2 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW

Ran on well behind two of todays rivals on most recent run, crucially did not get a strong pace to aim at in that race, which is a prerequisite given her style of running. Much more pace in the line up today and a strong head wind to boot so really should be set up for a closer at the finish. Last time out was her most encouraging run for some time and is off a very workable mark on best of her form over last two years. (Was) some slightly bigger prices available but prefer the 11/10 to be in the first four as no guarantee that is going to get the gaps when needed – if she does then I think she could be very hard to beat if building on last run.

The Rooster

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Far too many bets at Newcastle today:
4.45 Newcastle: Woodside Wonder (3/1 Generally) 2pts Win
5.15 Newcastle: Watchable (9/1 Generally) 1pt EW
6.15 Newcastle: Poppy In The Wind (11/2 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW

Will get round to doing write ups at some stage this afternoon.

Without having looked at any other horse, I was already on Atletico at 10/1 (like Cherry Cola) in 5.15 just because of the jockey. Ignoring a 66/1 shot she was on recently, Katherine Begley has gone 1,2,1,1 and is still claiming 7.

My nap today is Another Angel 5/1 in the last. Beaten 5/4f last time when jockey left his run too late (still came home second). 1 pound lighter today and Cam Hardie won't make same mistake again (I hope ).

EDIT: Apologies, not the right thread for my selections. Won't happen again.

Mostly Harmless

The Rooster wrote: »

Without having looked at any other horse, I was already on Atletico at 10/1 (like Cherry Cola) in 5.15 just because of the jockey. Ignoring a 66/1 shot she was on recently, Katherine Begley has gone 1,2,1,1 and is still claiming 7.

My nap today is Another Angel 5/1 in the last. Beaten 5/4f last time when jockey left his run too late (still came home second). 1 pound lighter today and Cam Hardie won't make same mistake again (I hope ).

Her stats are very good but surely not sustainable, hard to know what Evans is playing at with Atletico, money suggests will be trying today but still above last AW winning mark when with Varian and got to be a possible that they are waiting for a more obvious opportunity off lower marks, not to say won't win but would not be for me. Liked Laubali in last for what it's worth but three bets is too many already at track I tend to not do very well at.