All Weather Winter Warmer

Mostly Harmless

As I have zero interest in the jumping game thought I would start a thread for my bets on the AW racing over the winter to keep myself entertained. Majority of bets will be at Dundalk and Southwell, some bets at other UK AW tracks.

Intend to post thoughts on day of race once I have got on myself - hopefully be around midday but could be later depending on other commitments. Zero guarantees of profit and if you do choose to follow then good luck to you, I'm not a pro but would *hope* to be making >5% ROI by end of thread (again no guarantees).

Will be providing reasoning for all bets, betting on a scale of 1pt to 3pts (incl. half fractions) and updating running totals/figures every Saturday.

Plan to do this until the flat season starts again next year. Kicking off tomorrow.

sdoc13

Mostly Harmless wrote:

Intend to post thoughts on day of race once I have got on myself - hopefully be around midday but could be later depending on other commitments. Zero guarantees of profit and if you do choose to follow then good luck to you, I'm not a pro but would *hope* to be making >5% ROI by end of thread (again no guarantees).

Mostly Harmless wrote:

Will be providing reasoning for all bets, betting on a scale of 1pt to 3pts (incl. half fractions) and updating running totals/figures every Saturday.

Mostly Harmless wrote:

Plan to do this until the flat season starts again next year. Kicking off tomorrow.

Best of luck with it.

redzerdrog

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

As I have zero interest in the jumping game thought I would start a thread for my bets on the AW racing over the winter to keep myself entertained. Majority of bets will be at Dundalk and Southwell, some bets at other UK AW tracks.

Intend to post thoughts on day of race once I have got on myself - hopefully be around midday but could be later depending on other commitments. Zero guarantees of profit and if you do choose to follow then good luck to you, I'm not a pro but would *hope* to be making >5% ROI by end of thread (again no guarantees).

Will be providing reasoning for all bets, betting on a scale of 1pt to 3pts (incl. half fractions) and updating running totals/figures every Saturday.

Plan to do this until the flat season starts again next year. Kicking off tomorrow.

Fir all your critisms if poor goat I am glad you are going to try back it up yourself. Will you be giving us your thoughts regarding implied edge as well ;-)

Mostly Harmless

redzerdrog wrote: »

Fir all your critisms if poor goat I am glad you are going to try back it up yourself. Will you be giving us your thoughts regarding implied edge as well ;-)

Nothing to prove but thanks for the comment

TheMilkyPirate

Good man MH, Never mind that jumps shite

kiers47

Cant beat a bit of Fundalk.
Best of luck MH.

Francie Barrett

Interested to know what's your angle on picking Southwell. Do you think the unique surface and kick back from front runners presents an opportunity that the market hasn't fully priced in?

Mostly Harmless

3.15 Southwell: Mime Dance (12/1 generally) 1pt EW
By Notnowcato who gets fair share of fibresand winners and is still unexposed on this surface having run here once (finishing close up second on penultimate start). Inconsistent and quirky but capable of winning off this mark. Blinkers + eyeshield reapplied and should be going close if in the mood.

Very busy this AM Dundalk bets coming later.

Mostly Harmless

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Interested to know what's your angle on picking Southwell. Do you think the unique surface and kick back from front runners presents an opportunity that the market hasn't fully priced in?

The unique surface is the key factor IMO, is a very specific test and favors horses with certain physical characteristics, lots of examples of otherwise mediocre animals hitting a rich vein of form when switched on to the fibresand, I would put a premium on anything with proven course form or US bred dirt pedigrees. Running style also more important than it would be at other tracks, very hard to make up ground there from off the pace and added disadvantage of getting a face full of sand as you mention.

Mostly Harmless

First one at Dundalk (3 to follow)

6.00 Dundalk: Paddytheirishman (11/1 365, BV, Ladbrokes) 2pts Win
Last three runs all respectable efforts at Dundalk, first two runs over 10f and then surprisingly had enough pace to run well over a 7f last time and would've been placed at least if not meeting bit of trouble in running in final furlong. Yet to win a race and not got too many gears but looks genuine enough. Mile round here could be the ideal trip based on evidence of those runs. Think it's vital that is allowed to make a prolonged challenge down the straight as does not do anything too quickly but should be running them down late on if all goes to plan. Fair few dodgepots in opposition and had this around the 7/1 mark.

Mostly Harmless

8.00 Dundalk: Lilys Prince (25/1 Paddy, BV, Boyles) 1pt EW
Bit of a risky one as looks to have become a bit of a pig these days and struggles to puts its head in front. Nevertheless, think that 6f round Dundalk are close to optimal conditions. Killian Leonard up for the first time and he is quite good on unwilling horses IMO so potential for some improvement there, few front runners in the line up so should go a good pace which will also certainly help. Not totally in love with the win part of the bet but over 6/1 to place seemed decent value and worth a small go.

Mostly Harmless

Bit late sorry

8.30 Dundalk: Archers Up (28/1 Paddy - paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
Finished midfield in big field Leopardstown handicap last time in race that looked to suit those held up probably not a bad effort on ground that was likely a tad too soft. Had been decent nick over hurdles prior to that and is 2/2 at Dundalk (albeit a claimer and a maiden for previous trainer), very tough race but could yet be underrated off 72 round here.

9.00 Dundalk: Effernock Fizz (25/1 Paddy - paying 4 places 1/5) 1.5pts EW
Been in notebook since getting a very soft ride in claimer behind Dubai Rainbow few starts back, had no hope whatsoever on most recent run when a mile out of the handicap but went off to fast and hugged the rail just to make sure. Only other run in handicap was reasonably promising when finishing 4th from the widest draw. In off its correct mark of 52 now and one of a few 3yos in line up that get a weight allowance and also gets jockeys 7lb claim, if she's got any semblance of ability then should really be getting involved. Small trainer but shrewd enough and knows how to get wins out of her horses, bit of money looks promising too.

Chesty08

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

First one at Dundalk (3 to follow)

6.00 Dundalk: Paddytheirishman (11/1 365, BV, Ladbrokes) 2pts Win
Last three runs all respectable efforts at Dundalk, first two runs over 10f and then surprisingly had enough pace to run well over a 7f last time and would've been placed at least if not meeting bit of trouble in running in final furlong. Yet to win a race and not got too many gears but looks genuine enough. Mile round here could be the ideal trip based on evidence of those runs. Think it's vital that is allowed to make a prolonged challenge down the straight as does not do anything too quickly but should be running them down late on if all goes to plan. Fair few dodgepots in opposition and had this around the 7/1 mark.

Agree with this one. Expecting a big run

Mostly Harmless

Total sh1te yesterday, nothing could land a blow and few that went off way bigger on exchange, we go on.

Was going to leave Wolves today but one now drifted out to point where cannot leave it...

7:45 Wolverhampton - Original Choice (4/1 Generally) 1pt Win
Been generally running well in some pretty good turf handicaps all year and nothing wrong with close 3rd on AW at Lingfield last time out. Was sent off a well backed 5/4 fav there and won on only other start on AW (7f at Wolverhampton). Been a lot of money about for Maratha which has resulted in my selection drifting out during day - cannot really see case for Maratha and had Original Choice priced up closer to its opening price at around 3/1 or therebouts.

DubInTheWest

Todays horse won well done. Been a long time since a winner tipped in the other thread so nice one. Miss the goats bets.

BumperD

[quote="DubInTheWest;108772967 Miss the goats bets.[/quote]

Despite him not having another bet until Dec 26th he’s punting like a lunatic on this forum daily ever since that statement so you can follow his delusions there

https://www.talkinghorses.co.uk/forum/showthread.php?16994-What-are-you-backing-Today/page950

ANDREWMUFC

A compulsive gambler perhaps?!?

Mostly Harmless

Original Choice gets things off the mark.

Staked 12.00
Returned 5.00
P/L -7.00
ROI -58.33%

Mostly Harmless

Was intending to back one at Wolves again today but early price boys have destroyed it so leaving it now.

Mostly Harmless

One today:
2:20 Lingfield: Corinthia Knight (3/1 Generally) 1pt Win
Looked to go a bit too fast in front when being run down over 6f in listed race at Lingfield last time after hitting a low of evens in running. That run came off back of a break so may not have been 100%, now drops back in trip (just as effective at 5f) and back into handicap company today. Does not need to lead to win but not a heap of pace in the race today so should be able to get prominent. Significant class edge over the rest of the field and the only 3yo in the line up, may still be improving but probably does not need to in order to win.

Mostly Harmless

God knows how that went off at 9/2

Slattsy

Well in!

kiers47

Nice 1 MH

Mostly Harmless

Ta, not quite in profit though. Should be one tomorrow hopefully.

akelly02

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Ta, not quite in profit though. Should be one tomorrow hopefully.

Draw put me off . Fair play

Mostly Harmless

Early start today and busy this morning so getting this up now before I forget:

11:30 Lingfield: Wilson (25/1 Paddy/Ladbrokes paying 1234 1/5) 1pt EW
Easy to put a line through most recent run when caught a few horses wide for most of the race and petrol tank quickly emptied at the business end. Had previously taken a step in the right direction when finishing 4th at Kempton and was some money around for it on both of those two runs. Not had too many opportunities for current yard and was rated as high as 83 for Cumani, runs off 64 today and should be getting competitive off that sort of mark if not a total corpse. Has shown enough pace to suggest that drop to 7f should not be a problem and does have the rail draw to help so expect them to try and make all again, 25/1 to win and 5/1 to finish in first 4 looked very big to me.

Cherry_Cola

BOOM! Nice one!

BumperD

Absolute belter MH

Mostly Harmless

Ta. Might quit now tbh.

BumperD

Lock thread :pac:

kiers47

3 winners on the trot. No pressure for the next one :pac:

The Mig

Some picking MH. Fair Play!

Mostly Harmless

Thanks all. Just good variance, please do not get accustomed to it and start having lumps on my picks.

Mostly Harmless

Probably have at least one bet at Chelmsford today

Mostly Harmless

8.30 Chelmsford: Dotted Swiss (11/1 365, Paddy) 1pt Win
Very weak in market on debut for Archie Watson at Wolverhampton last time but ran well enough to finish midfield despite missing the break from the inside stall, that run came on back of 2 month break so reasonable to expect her to strip fitter for that run (esp given weakness in market). Drop in trip looks to be in her favour and should be able to get to the head of affairs from a low draw. Won off 75 and 84 when trained by Hannon and runs off 75 today. Missed the bigger prices this morning but still some juice in the price at 10s and 11s for me.

9.00 Chelmsford: Tidals Baby (14/1 365, BV) 1pt Win
Certainly not 100% genuine and not won in a very very long time, but mark has come down a good bit on back of a few poor runs on turf which came in quick succession towards end of season. Back on AW now and in a typically low quality class 7 race off the lowest mark its ever run off. Trainer rarely sends them over to the UK for the fresh air and was placed off 57 and 58 on AW round this time last year. If its ever going to win another race then must be going very close today.

Mostly Harmless

Both slowly away yesterday and always struggling to get involved thereafter, Tidals Baby was very well backed later in the day, but I would not be in a hurry to be backing either of them again on that evidence.

Will be having a few bets at Dundalk and post them in due course.

Mostly Harmless

7:00 Dundalk: Amazing One (15/2 Ladbrokes, Hills, BV, Boyles, Coral) 2pt Win
Yet to win but looks to be getting the hang of things on recent starts and as with a lot of Holy Roman Emperor progeny looks to handle the surface at Dundalk well. Is now much better drawn than on three most recent starts at Dundalk and should be able to reverse form with a few of these on that basis. Not a lot of pace in the race and could feasibly get a soft lead with (the very much underrated) Ross Coakley a good judge of pace. Already shown enough to make me think can win this but has also only had 11 starts and much more scope for improvement than most of these. Thormand O'Mara hardly a master trainer but has had a few winners here in recent weeks and fancy this one to add to that tally.

Mostly Harmless

5.30 Dundalk: Laughton (12/1 Generally) 1pt Win
Encouraging start for new connections when finishing midfield over 7f last time, traveling strongly and meeting a bit of trouble in running before stamina became an issue and weakened close home. That trip was always going to be a bit too far on all known form but way in which traveled through race gives a lot of hope that can win races off this sort of mark round Dundalk and drop back in trip can only help. Lack of pace and tendency to be slowly away are obvious concerns but at 12/1 this is well accounted for in price.

Mostly Harmless

Probably the last one, will take another look at prices after lunch...

6.30 Dundalk: Chillala (40/1 Hills, BV Generally) 1pt EW
Been mostly campaigned in maidens and mostly had mountains to climb on the ratings since joining Fergal Birrane but has shown some glimmers of promise on more than one occasion. Now down to lowest mark ever and in a 0-65 handicap with the benefit of a low draw. Ran poorly on only other start here but was miles out of the handicap on that occasion, out of a Footstepsinthesand mare so would be hopeful that can handle the surface perfectly OK. Hard to know what to expect but opposition are largely out of form and well worth a punt at a big price.

irish_major

Great thread. Fantastic logic and write ups on all running tonight. Will be backing the three of them. GL

Mostly Harmless

No more bets, Captain Joy in 8pm race close to a bet but 12s looks about right with no idea whatsoever if fit after a break and could be a light of former years now anyway.

Mostly Harmless

Sickener with Amazing One getting nailed on the line after hitting 1/3 in running. Laughton ran a race to finish 4th and should be winning over winter. Who knows with Chillala, won't give up quite yet.

Staked 22.00
Returned 42.50
P/L 20.50
ROI 93.18%
*Corinthia Knight settled as 9/2 winner with guaranteed price.

STB.

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Sickener with Amazing One getting nailed on the line after hitting 1/3 in running. Laughton ran a race to finish 4th and should be winning over winter. Who knows with Chillala, won't give up quite yet.

Staked 22.00
Returned 42.50
P/L 20.50
ROI 93.18%
*Corinthia Knight settled as 9/2 winner with guaranteed price.

If it makes you feel any better, the only one that came up tonight in my Unlucky 15 was the one that beat yours! Slattery's claim made the difference. Amazing One will win next time out, but will be no price.

Some gamble landed on JJ's horse in the 6pm maiden, Gregorian Chant. 25s into 7's. Backed all day. Looks useful too, came from the back and nailed another well backed horse in JOB's Roger That (that'll skate up next day). Unfortunately the Aga Khan fav picked up a fatal injury in that race.

Kauto

STB. wrote: »

If it makes you feel any better, the only one that came up tonight in my Unlucky 15 was the one that beat yours! Slattery's claim made the difference. Amazing One will win next time out, but will be no price.

Some gamble landed on JJ's horse in the 6pm maiden, Gregorian Chant. 25s into 7's. Backed all day. Looks useful too, came from the back and nailed another well backed horse in JOB's Roger That (that'll skate up next day). Unfortunately the Aga Khan fav picked up a fatal injury in that race.

Job's horse wasn't well backed. Was a price before his other two came out but drifted from 2/1 out to 6 on the machine before the off. He is no use.

Winner looked good but then again he is trained by JJ Murphy so will probably never win again

Mostly Harmless

STB. wrote: »

If it makes you feel any better, the only one that came up tonight in my Unlucky 15 was the one that beat yours! Slattery's claim made the difference. Amazing One will win next time out, but will be no price.

Some gamble landed on JJ's horse in the 6pm maiden, Gregorian Chant. 25s into 7's. Backed all day. Looks useful too, came from the back and nailed another well backed horse in JOB's Roger That (that'll skate up next day). Unfortunately the Aga Khan fav picked up a fatal injury in that race.

I still have a headache from watching that finish tbh :eek:

Small bet at Wolverhampton this evening:

7.45 Wolverhampton: Winterlude (25/1 Paddy, BV, Hills) 0.5pt EW
Entitled to have needed run after lay off of over a year on most recent start at Chelmsford. Hard to know if old ability still remains after that big gap away from the track but traveled through the race strongly enough before weakening down the straight. Well up to winning off this mark if not gone at the game and has 2 places and 1 win from 3 starts over course and distance.

STB.

Kauto wrote: »

Job's horse wasn't well backed. Was a price before his other two came out but drifted from 2/1 out to 6 on the machine before the off. He is no use.

Winner looked good but then again he is trained by JJ Murphy so will probably never win again

One of O Brien's horses was pulled, the original tissue fav priced up at 11/4.

Roger That, the first reserve was 12/1, and was backed into 11/4 in the morning. His SP was 7/2. That wasn't just shortening of a price.

Murphy's horse blew the start, had to avoid the fav that broke down on the homeward bend to the straight and looks a decent sort.


https://www.irishracing.com/news?headline=Murphy-has--big-plans--for-his-Dundalk-debut-winner&prid=196373&prt=L

Cherry_Cola

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

I still have a headache from watching that finish tbh :eek:

Small bet at Wolverhampton this evening:

7.45 Wolverhampton: Winterlude (25/1 Paddy, BV, Hills) 0.5pt EW
Entitled to have needed run after lay off of over a year on most recent start at Chelmsford. Hard to know if old ability still remains after that big gap away from the track but traveled through the race strongly enough before weakening down the straight. Well up to winning off this mark if not gone at the game and has 2 places and 1 win from 3 starts over course and distance.

Non-runner now it seems.

Mostly Harmless

Bit late but one today:

3.30 Wolverhampton: Final Attack (7/1 Ladbrokes, Paddy, Boyles - paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
Ran well from a bad draw here last time, was poorly positioned early there but probably not a massive disadvantage given they possibly went too fast in front, but nevertheless has been ridden closer to the pace for both of career wins. Looks a bit of an improved performer in recent starts and Malune gets a good tune out of him (and is very good value for his claim). A marginally stronger race than previously but has much better draw and looks an EW bet to nothing on form of any of three most recent runs.

Mostly Harmless

3rd for a small profit

Mostly Harmless

Busy day on the fibresand today:

11.50 Southwell: Go Annie Go (25/1 Paddy, Ladbrokes paying 4 places 1/5) 0.5pt EW
Fairly big field for a nursery at Southwell but typically low on quality with a lot of apparently very low ability 2yos in the line-up. Go Annie Go showed some ability in sellers for previous yard, this is scarcely better than a seller and potential for improvement on first start on surface with some hope on breeding (Sire by Clodovil and out of an American bred mare). Obviously no superstar but one of few in line up that has at least confirmed that has sufficient ability to win races. Hugh Taylor has put up the favorite which now gives the market a nice shape for an EW bet.

1.20 Southwell: Epitaph (20/1 Generally) 1pt EW
Standing dish in these sorts of races round Southwell, not entirely genuine, does nothing in a hurry and tends to find at least one too good. Nevertheless, is now racing off lowest mark for a while, not had too many attempts at trips over 1m4f and Luke Morris in the saddle should help to make his mind up if he’s in with a shout down the straight. Few others with much clearer claims in there but Hugh Taylor has once again put up the fav so sets it up nicely for an EW bet and reckon this one could quite feasibly plod into a place at least.

1.50 Southwell: Sir Geoffrey (20/1 Paddy, Ladbrokes paying 4 places 1/5) 1pt EW
Reluctant to put this one up again but price is too big now. Has been very well backed on both of recent starts here since returning from a break, has only run to an average level on both occasions but just about enough promise to make me believe is still capable of winning a race like this. Apart from the top two in the market, the opposition look far from inspiring. Cannot afford to get too far behind early doors but fitness should now be assured, 20/1 is too big for me and worth a bet.

2.50 Southwell: Mr Coco Bean (9/2 BV) 2pt Win
Handles the surface very well and never run a bad race here. Finished 3rd on both of two most recent starts here and easy enough to find reasons for improvement, having got behind early on on first occasion and then racing wider than ideal last time. Was in good form at this time last year and application of first time cheekpieces an additional source of potential improvement. Main market rival, Earl Of Bunnacurry finished well behind my selection last time, that one did have excuses but think it has quite possibly reached the peak of its ability having gone up 11lbs for two previous wins and am struggling to see how it can reverse that form.

Mostly Harmless

Total sh1te from start to finish, oh well