All Weather Winter Warmer

Mostly Harmless

Very late now I know but real life gets in the way sometimes. Just the one at Newcastle:

7.15 Newcastle: Novabridge (18/1 365, BV, Paddy) 1pt Win
Last four career wins been over C&D and getting back down to the sort of lowly mark it needs to be on to win a race these days. Ran well enough here last time when unable to get in front early doors, much better chance of leading this field and is nicely drawn to attack up the far side in stall one. Has run some of better races in last 24 months around this time of year and looked worth a small bet at the price.

Andrew00

STB. wrote: »

I hate Newcastle with a passion.


However, I thought Rey Loopy had a chance in the 6.15. 11/2.

Haslam doesn't have many A/W horses and a slightly better jockey on board this time and a 7lb turn around with the favourite on the last run for a length and a half. There are others I would be fearful of not least Smuggler's Creek who has drifted out to 9/1.


Going Well OP, BTW Chevalier let me down for a right touch on a lucky 31 (and side by side accum) the other day. Always one only myself to blame as I hadnt seen your post!

Well done

akelly02

Not one of your horses have I backed because the minute I start backing you will start losing , but fair play these are serious picks

Mostly Harmless

Secondo scraped into an arguably fortunate 3rd place. Minuty just out of places but I got the angle of opposing the fav correct there at least. Novabridge led everywhere but the line which was very annoying but you will have that, should have bet it EW in hindsight.

+3pts on the day

Totals
Staked 127.00
Returned 175.50
P/L 48.50
ROI 38.19%

Aurora1966

STB. wrote:

However, I thought Rey Loopy had a chance in the 6.15. 11/2.

Great shout on that, nice1.

STB.

Aurora1966 wrote: »

Great shout on that, nice1.

Ta.

Not going to hijack your thread Mostly Harmless, but will throw up the odd suggestion for you to consider.

Tomorrow. Take a look at the 3.40 at Meydan. Its the festival meeting. Darren Bunnions Hit the Bid is entered up in the 5F Handicap. He was a half length second last year (and no Ertijaal this year) and then went on to win at Meydan. He's had a similar preparation for this year, having won at Dundalk in October. Chris Hayes rides 11/4.

Marnane also sending one for this same race in Freescape (also won his last race at 6f at Dundalk). Freescape has decent form over a mile last year at Meydan, but I think this field will take him off his feet over 5.

Meydan 4.50. I nearly fell off my chair when I saw that Deauville was also running on the card and that he is running in a 1m1f Group 3. He is no longer in the Fitri Hay/Coolmore Colours nor trained by AOB, now with Fawzi Nass. This horse was within 3 lengths of both Roaring Lyon and Saxon Warrior in the Irish Champion Stakes (G1) last September at Leopardstown. He is 11/2. If he gets in front, they wont get by. Luke Morris the only puzzling factor as he is down to ride.

Andrew00

Meydan is way better than this National Hunt sh*te we’ve had to put up with so far. Dross this season is

Mostly Harmless

Don't follow Meydan at all, focus of thread was on UK/IRE AW racing to be honest.

TheMilkyPirate

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Underwhelming day yesterday, one today at Lingfield:

3.10 Lingfield: Baasha (10/1 Boyles, Betfred, BV, Hills) 1.5pt EW
Has been putting in improved efforts since having a wind operation but has also been getting some quite mediocre rides. Has traded a good bit shorter than SP in running on last few runs and think it's a matter of time until things fall right for him to get head in front. Would have been a bigger (probably max) bet but bit of concern with drop to a mile in a hands and heels race. However does seem to travel well enough through races without being hard ridden so probably not too much of an issue with hands and heels. Opposition do not win too many races (including the 7/4 fav) and if can get away with drop back in trip then fully expect this one to be fighting out the finish.

Out over 1m2f at Chelmsford today with Havlin up

Mostly Harmless

2.00 Southwell: Liamba (9/1 BV, Coral) 2pts EW
Ran well only previous start at course when going down by a neck and has only run good races in its three runs since then. Is up 9lbs compared to that previous run at Southwell but this is an easier race and is a half to a prolific fibresand winner so is easy to find reasons why should be up to going well again today. Short priced fav and presence of Point Zero (who refuses to win races) at a shorter price than my selection help set things up nicely for an EW punt. Only real reservation is the 78 day break and weakness in the market on early prices.

Mostly Harmless

2.35 Southwell: Razin Hell (9/2 Generally) 1.5pts Win
Came into this race wanting to be on Crosse Fire after good effort back from a break last in better race time but so did a few other people by the looks of things and price now looks spot on at around the 4/1 mark. Razin Hell is now a backable price at similar odds though. Southwell specialist with 7/8 wins coming at the course, ran poorly for the majority of 2018 but was campaigned away from Southwell in last 6 starts from March 2018 onwards, comes back here now in a class 5 off a mark of 65 when was previously contesting class 3s and 4s off marks in the 80s and surely must win this if can get back to anything like best form. Bit of a leap of faith required but 9/2 is plenty big enough in the circumstances.

STB.

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Don't follow Meydan at all, focus of thread was on UK/IRE AW racing to be honest.

Ah right so. Meydan another one of those foreign A/W, but English and Irish A/W and Turf horses and jockeys running there, today for the carnival.

The Marnane horse is half the price it was last night in the 4.50, so dont know what is going on there (settle for bay won the hunt cup) Would still fancy deauville in that race

Mostly Harmless

STB. wrote: »

Ah right so. Meydan another one of those foreign A/W, but English and Irish A/W and Turf horses and jockeys running there, today for the carnival.

The Marnane horse is half the price it was last night in the 3.40, so dont know what is going on there. Would still fancy hit the bid.

Cannot abide the dirt racing at all, know I like Southwell and its the nearest thing to it round this part of world but it's an awful spectacle to watch with a lot of races largely settled in the first furlong or two. Also the prospect of always going up against one or more Godolphin/Hamdan (or other UAE based owners/trainers) horses that suddenly improve two stone for the "desert air" does not make for a great betting medium.

Mostly Harmless

3.10 Southwell: Hammer Gun (13/2 365, Hills, BV) 1pt EW
Sent off a well backed 7/2 shot last time here over a furlong further, finishing 3rd behind two relatively unexposed ones. Nothing quite like those two in opposition today and is a pound lower back at 7f, the distance at which has had most success at round here. 6 wins and 3 places at the course so clearly handles the surface very well. The three ahead of my selection in market do command respect but they all like to be towards the head of affairs and think that could quite possibly set it up for Hammer Gun to pick them off down the staright. Arguably worth a bigger bet but slight concern about one coming out of the race and leaving only two places.

Mostly Harmless

3.45 Southwell: Sooqaan (9/1 Generally) 1pt Win
From previous run last time out (two days ago):

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

2.55 Southwell: Sooqaan (16/1 365) 1pt Win
Was a revelation on fibresand round this time last year, winning three in a short space of time. Not really recaptured that level of form since, but has fired a few warning shots that is coming back to something like best. Finishing second to Tagur, who reopposes today, on penultimate start and has big swing in weights with that one today. Bare figures suggest ran poorly last time out but was in the lead and on the bridle turning in and traded at odds on. Has developed a worrying tendency to find very little off the bridle so would make sense to lay off at a short price in running, but is proven on surface and looks to bee in decent nick and 16s looks plenty big enough on that basis alone.

Missed the break a bit from low draw on that occasion and got snookered behind horses on rail as a result. Needs to be prominent really and should have better chance of getting there from wider draw in lower class race today. Drop in trip a concern but way horse travels over a mile suggests should be fine and surely going to get his act together again sooner or later. Again would suggest laying stake back on betfair in running at short prices given tendency to find little off bridle.

Francie Barrett

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

3.10 Southwell: Hammer Gun (13/2 365, Hills, BV) 1pt EW
Sent off a well backed 7/2 shot last time here over a furlong further, finishing 3rd behind two relatively unexposed ones. Nothing quite like those two in opposition today and is a pound lower back at 7f, the distance at which has had most success at round here. 6 wins and 3 places at the course so clearly handles the surface very well. The three ahead of my selection in market do command respect but they all like to be towards the head of affairs and think that could quite possibly set it up for Hammer Gun to pick them off down the staright. Arguably worth a bigger bet but slight concern about one coming out of the race and leaving only two places.

The outside draw in the 8 runner field over the distance here can be an obstacle. Good luck though.

Mostly Harmless

And last one, had been waiting to see how much can get it to drift first, but have had to bet it now:
12.55 Southwell: Katie Gale (7/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 2.5pts EW
Back to something resembling form when 3rd of 7 in a considerably stronger race here last time, slightly shorter trip today will also help as has looked to not fully see it out over the extreme staying trips. Very rarely runs a bad race here and has only ever finished outside of the first 3 on 3 occasions from 18 runs on the fibresand. Another small drop in weights brings her down to a mark 3lbs lower than one she won off in March 2018, this is arguably the weakest race has ever run in at the course and has the assistance of one of the more experienced jockeys up top. Is available at bigger prices elsewhere but market is set up perfectly for the additional place EW bet with just the 10 runners (so 1/5 odds either way) and 5th in the market available at 33/1 currently - if this is bigger than 2.4 in the additional place market on Betfair I would be mildly amazed. Wanted to pull the trigger with a max EW bet but it is an amateur riders race had a fair chunk on today already.

Mostly Harmless

Francie Barrett wrote: »

The outside draw in the 8 runner field over the distance here can be an obstacle. Good luck though.

Thanks. I *think* the stats are even enough for 7f and 1m round there. Easy to lose races from a low draw if not getting out the stalls sharpish then getting caught behind wall of horses and kickback, at least being wider gives some margin for error and more flexibility in terms of tactics. In case of Hammer Gun, he's likely to be behind early regardless so not sure it makes much odds where its drawn.

STB.

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

In case of Hammer Gun, he's likely to be behind early regardless so not sure it makes much odds where its drawn.

He's a difficult ride alright, but likes Southwell. Presume they have been running him everywhere else to get his mark down. Only two jockeys have ever won on him. Paddy Mathers and Martin Lane. Lane went off to manage a holiday resort in Fiji. Dont know what the story with Mathers is as he is normally Derek Shaws go to jock.

By the way dont know if you noticed it, but I saw you mention that headbanger Point Zero when tipping up Liamba in the 2.00. You know the horse that beat it in December is in the race with Hammer Gun. The Fahey horse now up a grade (12/1). Last years winner also in the race for Furtado at 25/1. The lack of money tells you everything there though.

slimshady007

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

And last one, had been waiting to see how much can get it to drift first, but have had to bet it now:
12.55 Southwell: Katie Gale (7/1 Paddy paying 4 places 1/5) 2.5pts EW
Back to something resembling form when 3rd of 7 in a considerably stronger race here last time, slightly shorter trip today will also help as has looked to not fully see it out over the extreme staying trips. Very rarely runs a bad race here and has only ever finished outside of the first 3 on 3 occasions from 18 runs on the fibresand. Another small drop in weights brings her down to a mark 3lbs lower than one she won off in March 2018, this is arguably the weakest race has ever run in at the course and has the assistance of one of the more experienced jockeys up top. Is available at bigger prices elsewhere but market is set up perfectly for the additional place EW bet with just the 10 runners (so 1/5 odds either way) and 5th in the market available at 33/1 currently - if this is bigger than 2.4 in the additional place market on Betfair I would be mildly amazed. Wanted to pull the trigger with a max EW bet but it is an amateur riders race had a fair chunk on today already.

Great shout! Won easy

Mostly Harmless

slimshady007 wrote: »

Great shout! Won easy

Ta. Went very well all considered.

STB.

On fire mostly harmless. 8/1 on the off.

Pearlstone

Very well done MH. All weather is not my thing but I have been following this thread with interest and you have tipped up some great selections.

Mostly Harmless

Decent day with both of the bigger stakes getting returns, Katie Gale got it done with relative ease at a whopping 8/1 in first and Liamba scraped a place. Hammer Gun ran ok but probably got too far behind off an insufficiently quick pace, there will be other chances for him in coming weeks. Sooqaan ran a good race but was no match for the winner who looks a horse to follow closely on the fibresand for remainder of winter. On a sad note, poor old Razin Hell suffered a heart attack mid race and is no longer with us - RIP.

+21.1pts on the day and a new high point of profit for the thread, do feel like will struggle to maintain a near 50% ROI but can only try!

Totals
Staked 140.50
Returned 210.10
P/L 69.60
ROI 49.54%

Mostly Harmless

TheMilkyPirate wrote: »

Out over 1m2f at Chelmsford today with Havlin up

Have left it alone as not had time to do the race in detail but could not put anyone off backing it at double figures really, would be hard to come up with any more excuses if cannot go very close today.

HarshOstrich

Aido mcguinness sending two across the sea to wolves tomorrow, piper bomb and beau satchel.
Very interesting

STB.

Red hot MH as Baasha bashes the fav in the last..... Got 11s earlier. Returned 7s. Hope it's boards money.

You were ahead of yourself the last day. Someone reminded u earlier. I took the reminder

TheMilkyPirate

Got 10s on baasha myself, Cheers for the shout last month MH

Mostly Harmless

Not sure whether to laugh or cry, had less than half a point on the betfair show (apols for the aftertime) but still doesn't really cover what was lost on it on last three runs, got a better ride at last tonight anyway

Johnny_Fontane

HarshOstrich wrote: »

Aido mcguinness sending two across the sea to wolves tomorrow, piper bomb and beau satchel.
Very interesting

and taceec....