All Weather Winter Warmer

irish_major · 08-01-2019 3:43pm

2ndcoming wrote: »

Ah Woodside Wonder, chanced upon his massive journey taken to Kempton the last day and stuck a fiver e/w on at 40s, the rest as they say is history
:) lovely flukey little spot.

Edit: I see he's had a couple outings already since that one...

Oh FFS.

Will ye leave his thread alone rather than after-timing and putting yer own tips on it, start a different thread rather than cluttering this one!

2ndcoming · 08-01-2019 4:29pm

irish_major wrote: »

Oh FFS.

Will ye leave his thread alone rather than after-timing and putting yer own tips on it, start a different thread rather than cluttering this one!

Get over yourself snowflake, I spotted the horse's name and remembered a jammy moment, it was a month ago you tulip.

Where did I put my own tip up?

2ndcoming · 08-01-2019 4:33pm

Also 3 of the last 12 posts actually are people putting their own fancies up

Mostly Harmless · 08-01-2019 4:44pm

Would be easier if thread was kept a bit tidier from my point of view TBH, but not going to tell people what to do

BumperD · 08-01-2019 6:49pm

2ndcoming wrote: »

Get over yourself snowflake, I spotted the horse's name and remembered a jammy moment, it was a month ago you tulip.

Where did I put my own tip up?

After timing sticky is the 3rd listed on the forum, worth a read.

Think respecting MH wishes and leave this uncluttered is best, otherwise it will become a pain reading through waffle and gibberish, IMO

2ndcoming · 08-01-2019 6:57pm

BumperD wrote: »

After timing sticky is the 3rd listed on the forum, worth a read.

Think respecting MH wishes and leave this uncluttered is best, otherwise it will become a pain reading through waffle and gibberish, IMO

Commenting on someone's pick that day about a relatively long past success on the same horse is not what I would call after timing tbh. Coming in and saying I backed the winner in that race that day is after timing.

For what it's worth others putting up separate horses for the same races is far more derailing imo, followers end up with three tips for one race...

I know there are sensitive souls in here though, I just won't bother commenting in future.

Mostly Harmless · 08-01-2019 7:14pm

I am not particularly bothered, just when I am reading back can be a pain the rearend to have to wade through a load of posts to get back to what I am looking for, it's fine that people are contributing their thoughts and chipping in with opinions, that is basically the point of a public forum after all.

BUT... sticking up your own selections and write ups in this thread is a bit much especially when there are daily threads (that very few post in) for such stuff. Also aftertiming 40/1 winners is just wrong anywhere, anytime. But I am not a mod and do not want to tell people what to do, just use a bit of common sense.

Back on track now, hopefully Poppy In The Wind can rescure the day here!

STB. · 08-01-2019 7:15pm

Mostly Harmless. Didnt you put up Novabridge the last day ?

See its down in the 6.15!

STB. · 08-01-2019 7:39pm

Had a brief look at Newcastle and your fancies earlier MH. Newcastle isn't my favourite track as many horses simply hate it.

Couldn't help but notice that Richard Spencer's runs to winners ratio is 5/11! His horse in the next is White Iverson whose form figures are 888, which is plenty of fat ladies and probably why its 14/1. Same again in the 7.15 he has Morris on another outsider 20/1. I'll back none of them as Ed Walker's horses in both races are well backed. Suspect that PJ will win the second last anyway.

I had a look at the A/W cards earlier in the week and one that caught my eye was Perfect Soldier in the 7.15 at Kempton tomorrow. Top weight off 67 on second run for Keightley since leaving Michael O Callaghan. He was running off considerably higher in Ireland and was beaten 2/L off 78 at Wolverhampton on one of O Callaghan's raid missions just over a year ago. Priced up at 40/1

Unlucky with Navadir last night. Got to the front too soon. Looked the winner a good bit out.

Mostly Harmless · 08-01-2019 7:44pm

STB. wrote: »

Had a brief look at Newcastle and your fancies earlier MH. Newcastle isn't my favourite track as many horses simply hate it.

Couldn't help but notice that Richard Spencer's runs to winners ratio is 5/11! His horse in the next is White Iverson whose form figures are 888, which is plenty of fat ladies and probably why its 14/1. Same again in the 7.15 he has Morris on another outsider 20/1. I'll back none of them as Ed Walker's horses in both races are well backed. Suspect that PJ will win the second last anyway.

I had a look at the A/W cards earlier in the week and one that caught my eye was Perfect Soldier in the 7.15 at Kempton tomorrow. Top weight off 67 on second run for Keightley since leaving Michael O Callaghan. He was running off considerably higher in Ireland and was beaten 2/L off 78 at Wolverhampton on one of O Callaghan's raid missions just over a year ago. Priced up at 40/1

Unlucky with Navadir last night. Got to the front too soon. Looked the winner a good bit out.

Bet White Iveson last time at Southwell and ran awfully but might have needed it after being gelded, looks a massive price here at 20s+ now.

Perfect Soldier also a bet last time at Southwell, will be having a good look at that tomorrow, once getting on is a more realistic possibility.

Mostly Harmless · 08-01-2019 7:48pm

Crap day. Feel like Woodside Wonder was a bad bet in hindsight for all did not run too badly. Watchable somehow managed to fade out of the places after being up front for most of the race. Poppy In The Wind was never involved. Serves me right for punting so many at that kip.

-7pts on the day

Totals
Staked 162.50
Returned 214.30
P/L 51.80
ROI 31.88%

STB. · 08-01-2019 8:00pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Perfect Soldier also a bet last time at Southwell, will be having a good look at that tomorrow, once getting on is a more realistic possibility.

The more I look at its form, top weight in a 55-67. Gavin Ashton was riding it the last day (you could tell me he is a virtual racing jockey and I wouldn't have corrected you) . That last A/W horse that beat it 2 lengths at Wolverhampton a year ago was a progressive 3 year old and is now rated late 80s. Keightley likes a gamble (Morning 33s Sp 22/1 last day out). Liam Jones on this time 50/1 with bet365. Will check for tell tale signs later.

Jan Van Hoof has semi decent form in the last at Newcastle!

Mostly Harmless · 09-01-2019 9:59am

Busy this morning, so getting these up unusually early.

3.05 Lingfield: First Link (20/1 365) 2pts EW
Best run to date was two starts back when 3rd in novice company over this trip at Kempton. Winner of that has gone on to win in handicap company off 67 and the 4th placed horse (over 2 lengths behind First Link in that race) has won both starts since off 59 and 65 (when running under 6lb penalty) so a fairly straight forward case can be made for this one off just 57 today if that form is taken literally. Not so good on most recent start over 7f but looks like is more suited to sprint trips based on keen going nature and looked very much a non stayer over a mile when trying to make all on second career start. Up against a field of relatively exposed sorts and could have a fair amount of improvement to come off this mark. Is some 4 places available but actually prefer the standard place terms for once and very hopeful of some marked improvement today.

7.15 Kempton: Cashel (12/1 Generally) 1.5pts EW
Looked to lose form when trained by Dascombe and put in an eye catching effort when 5th from a wide draw over same C&D as today on first start for Mick Appleby. Yard do well with these sorts and no surprise to see further improvement today off 2lb lower mark.

Mostly Harmless · 09-01-2019 4:14pm

First Link done well to finish as close as did in 5th after being given a lot to do and not getting a completely clear run in the straight, annoying but if every 20/1 bet goes off at 8/1 then things will be fine in the long term

CH3OH · 09-01-2019 8:26pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Busy this morning, so getting these up unusually early
7.15 Kempton: Cashel (12/1 Generally) 1.5pts EW
Looked to lose form when trained by Dascombe and put in an eye catching effort when 5th from a wide draw over same C&D as today on first start for Mick Appleby. Yard do well with these sorts and no surprise to see further improvement today off 2lb lower mark.

Nice second at 16/1
Thanks

Mostly Harmless · 09-01-2019 8:26pm

Cashel flashed home again and bags place money at bigger price of 16/1.

-0.7pts on the day

Totals
Staked 169.50
Returned 220.60
P/L 51.10
ROI 30.15%

Mostly Harmless · 09-01-2019 8:36pm

Graph of running P/L after 90 bets, if pattern continues (and I doubt it will) then should be another jump up in the pipeline

Mostly Harmless · 10-01-2019 12:13pm

Today:
12.45 Southwell: Love Rat (9/2 Hills, BV) 1.5pts Win
1.20 Southwell: Classic Pursuit (15/2 Hills) 1pt EW
2.25 Southwell: The Right Choice (8/1 Boyles) 1pt Win
3.00 Southwell: Pearl Acclaim (13/2 Ladbrokes) 2pt Win
4.45 Chelmsford: African Showgirl (8/1 Generally) 1pt Win

Write ups to follow when I get some time.

Mostly Harmless · 10-01-2019 1:33pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

12.45 Southwell: Love Rat (9/2 Hills, BV) 1.5pts Win

Looked to have turned a bit of a corner when scraping home over C&D last time out. Well punted early doors there, so apparently not an unexpected improvement. Only a 3lb rise to deal with today, still well below opening handicap mark of 75 and not yet exposed at this distance. Thought should be near enough fav at around 3/1 to 7/2.

Mostly Harmless · 10-01-2019 1:44pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

1.20 Southwell: Classic Pursuit (15/2 Hills) 1pt EW

Got up on the line last time over C&D, that run was on back of a small break and should yet improve on that effort as generally needs a run when coming back from a break. Effective on the fibresand and decent record at the distance at Southwell. Close to a career high mark at age of 8 which is not typically a good thing but had looked as good as ever on turf during the summer and seemed a decent bet to be placed at a minimum with the eight runners lining up.

Mostly Harmless · 10-01-2019 2:14pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

2.25 Southwell: The Right Choice (8/1 Boyles) 1pt Win

Outran odds when placed at 16/1 last time and splitting some shorter priced opponents. Not convinced that truly stays much beyond sprint trips and still relatively unexposed on the fibresand. Form on turf suggests that will not need to improve too much to go close off this mark and thought was a point or two too big.

Mostly Harmless · 10-01-2019 2:19pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

3.00 Southwell: Pearl Acclaim (13/2 Ladbrokes) 2pt Win

Been running in better races than this and took step in right direction last time. Slight concern by trip of 6f as best form has been over shorter, but probably not a massive barrier to success in a very weak race. Drawn wide but rather be out there than against rails and risk getting trapped behind horses. Proven class edge against rest of the field and reproduction of run last time would possibly be good enough even.

Mostly Harmless · 10-01-2019 2:21pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

4.45 Chelmsford: African Showgirl (8/1 Generally) 1pt Win

Have bet this one at Southwell on more than one occasion, tendency to get behind early has prevented her from getting into races there, is not ideal here either but is less of a handicap. Be very surprised if Furtado cannot get a win out of her off a basement mark sooner or later and there is a lot of deadwood in here.

Mostly Harmless · 10-01-2019 2:21pm

Shorter write ups than usual as in a bit of a rush

akelly02 · 10-01-2019 3:32pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Outran odds when placed at 16/1 last time and splitting some shorter priced opponents. Not convinced that truly stays much beyond sprint trips and still relatively unexposed on the fibresand. Form on turf suggests that will not need to improve too much to go close off this mark and thought was a point or two too big.

well done fella

Bigsliothar · 10-01-2019 4:05pm

Super picking

TheMilkyPirate · 10-01-2019 4:06pm

You're some boy, Great picks

IAMAMORON · 10-01-2019 4:14pm

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Today:
12.45 Southwell: Love Rat (9/2 Hills, BV) 1.5pts Win
1.20 Southwell: Classic Pursuit (15/2 Hills) 1pt EW
2.25 Southwell: The Right Choice (8/1 Boyles) 1pt Win
3.00 Southwell: Pearl Acclaim (13/2 Ladbrokes) 2pt Win
4.45 Chelmsford: African Showgirl (8/1 Generally) 1pt Win

Write ups to follow when I get some time.

Great Picks. Good luck with the last. Nice one.

Mostly Harmless · 10-01-2019 7:16pm

Decent day with two winners, 10c R4 on Pearl Acclaim. African Showgirl just about the worst bet of the thread yet going off at around 40s on the exchange after having been backed at 8/1 this morning. Back moving in the right direction again.

+15.2pts on the day

Totals
Staked 177.00
Returned 243.30
P/L 66.30
ROI 37.46%

Mostly Harmless · 11-01-2019 12:04pm

8.00 Dundalk: Bellick (12/1 Ladbrokes, Paddy, Boyles) 2pts EW

Write up in a bit. Probably no other bets today.

All Weather Winter Warmer

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