European Parliament Elections 2019

KikiLaRue

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Granted he made a bit of a hames of it in the debate but i think he might do better than people think.

I wouldn't write him off just yet.

He wrote himself off with his arrogance. This isn’t like the presidential election where there was no candidate from FF or FG to compete with.

He has no ground campaign, no posters, nothing more than trite soundbites to offer.

is_that_so

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

So you think she could get the 4th seat?

I'd say McGuinness, Carty and Ming will get the first 3, would you agree with that?

Yep on the first 3. I think she may well be better placed because of McGuinness. Smith would be another possibility but he needs a good FPV. I will say I am surprised her support is so high, I had her down for maybe 7%-8% before the campaign. Then again I didn't expect McGuinness to be such a shoo-in.

Galwayguy35

KikiLaRue wrote: »

He wrote himself off with his arrogance. This isn’t like the presidential election where there was no candidate from FF or FG to compete with.

He has no ground campaign, no posters, nothing more than trite soundbites to offer.

He was all over the place all right, stupid move as well giving out about EU migrants who nobody has a problem with at all.

charlie14

is_that_so wrote: »

I think you're really stretching here especially in imagining sizable FG transfers to FF. He may get a few but Walsh would get the lion's share of them, if FG have their vote management right. By the same argument you one could claim some of Rabbitte's transfers will go to Walsh.

European elections do not necessarily follow the party voting transfers, or even party support patterns of Dail or local elections. In 2014 for example, FG had a very good European election whereas their local elections were a bit of a disaster.


I am not saying that Smith will get more McGuinness transfers than Walsh, or anywhere near it, but if it is a tight finish between the two then being from the same area as McGuinness could pick him up enough of her transfers to make the difference.

charlie14

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

He was all over the place all right, stupid move as well giving out about EU migrants who nobody has a problem with at all.

He is a chancer. But then many thought there was not a problem with migrants of itinerants in the lead up to the presidential election. I cannot see him getting a seat, but where his 2nds go could have a serious bearing as too who gets one.

is_that_so

charlie14 wrote: »

European elections do not necessarily follow the party voting transfers, or even party support patterns of Dail or local elections. In 2014 for example, FG had a very good European election whereas their local elections were a bit of a disaster.


I am not saying that Smith will get more McGuinness transfers than Walsh, or anywhere near it, but if it is a tight finish between the two then being from the same area as McGuinness could pick him up enough of her transfers to make the difference.

Well people protest in locals. More obvious voting behaviour in the Euros. It will all be down to how many FPVs he can get and that's not looking good. 1%-2% ahead of Walsh and it could be tighter but McGuinness won't help him. If he gets more than a 1000 transfers from McGuinness that will be a lot. Relative to what could be available to Walsh that's really of no use to him.

is_that_so

charlie14 wrote: »

He is a chancer. But then many thought there was not a problem with migrants of itinerants in the lead up to the presidential election. I cannot see him getting a seat, but where his 2nds go could have a serious bearing as too who gets one.

I saw someone suggest elsewhere that he will probably elect Ming! Or there may be too few 2nd prefs to make any difference to anything.

charlie14

is_that_so wrote: »

Well people protest in locals. More obvious voting behaviour in the Euros. It will all be down to how many FPVs he can get and that's not looking good. 1%-2% ahead of Walsh and it could be tighter but McGuinness won't help him. If he gets more than a 1000 transfers from McGuinness that will be a lot. Relative to what could be available to Walsh that's really of no use to him.

Granted people do protest in local elections, but that does not explain the voting pattern of the 2014 European and local elections. People voted strongly against FG in those local elections and strongly in favour of FF. Yet in the European election on the same day those party votes were more or less reversed. That would suggest, to me at least, that European elections are as much to do with the candidate and their location as party loyalty.
That`s why I would see transfers being much looser in the Europeans and not as predictable as in Dail elections.
The other variable here if it does come down to Walsh and Smith, is where Casey goes out and where his vote then goes.

charlie14

is_that_so wrote: »

I saw someone suggest elsewhere that he will probably elect Ming! Or there may be too few 2nd prefs to make any difference to anything.

Quite possibly, or they could go all over the place. If they are to have a say in the last seat though and it is down to Walsh and Smith, I cannot see Walsh getting many.

is_that_so

charlie14 wrote: »

Granted people do protest in local elections, but that does not explain the voting pattern of the 2014 European and local elections. People voted strongly against FG in those local elections and strongly in favour of FF. Yet in the European election on the same day those party votes were more or less reversed. That would suggest, to me at least, that European elections are as much to do with the candidate and their location as party loyalty.
That`s why I would see transfers being much looser in the Europeans and not as predictable as in Dail elections.
The other variable here if it does come down to Walsh and Smith, is where Casey goes out and where his vote then goes.

As I said more typical behaviour in Euros. I don't think your loose transfer hypothesis holds up, save for a Marian Harkin type. Neither Labour nor FG voters will opt for SF, some FF voters might. FF voters will give higher preferences to Labour and the Greens but rarely to FG. FG voters would be similar but also favour Labour and the Greens but never SF. Labour and the Green would favour most parties except SF. I don't think there will be a huge second preference out of Casey at all. Smith needs a good FPV, without it she's in.

charlie14

is_that_so wrote: »

As I said more typical behaviour in Euros. I don't think your loose transfer hypothesis holds up, save for a Marian Harkin type. Neither Labour nor FG voters will opt for SF, some FF voters might. FF voters will give higher preferences to Labour and the Greens but rarely to FG. FG voters would be similar but also favour Labour and the Greens but never SF. Labour and the Green would favour most parties except SF. I don't think there will be a huge second preference out of Casey at all. Smith needs a good FPV, without it she's in.

Based on the last European and local elections I do not see how in 2014 the Europeans were typical of voters voting along typical party lines.
FG had a poor local election where FF had a good one.That was repeated in the following GE. Typical of party voting in both local and national elections.

The 2014 European election was the very opposite when it came to party support.


I would not rule out Casey having a half decent 1st. preference vote, but I cannot see him progressing from that on transfers. Whatever 1st preference he gets will be distributed when he is eliminated. If that vote is the difference between Walsh or Smith taking the seat then from his presidential vote I would be of the opinion that vote was mainly from the FF gene pool. If that is again where his votes come from then they will favour Smith much more than Walsh

Inquitus

No exit poll for the UK vote, sadly, and no results until all 27 EU elections have concluded on Sunday at 10pm Irish time. We have an exit poll, but again no official results until all countries have finished voting, and most likely to come through on Monday.

An Ciarraioch

We do have a Dutch exit poll, however, and it appears that Forum for Democracy, the new Eurosceptic party there, have underperformed, only finishing fourth when they were expected to top the poll:

http://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1131637132412542976

dark crystal

An Ciarraioch wrote: »

We do have a Dutch exit poll, however, and it appears that Forum for Democracy, the new Eurosceptic party there, have underperformed, only finishing fourth when they were expected to top the poll:

http://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1131637132412542976

I hope this is a sign of things to come for Farage...

robman60

dark crystal wrote: »

I hope this is a sign of things to come for Farage...

Looking at the chart, the difference between second and fourth is only about 3.5%. Farage is double digits ahead, and will romp home.

An Ciarraioch

And we have seat projections, with one far-right party only filling what it's predecessor lost:

http://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1131644561669939200

L1011

That's some recovery for the PvdA based on their last GE results - 7th largest there.

Jamie2k9

If such fractured results like this appear across the block, it will be equally as bad had the right taken around third of seats as predicted. France and Germany results will tell a lot.

It could be 5 years of little change.

badtoro

When does the count start for the EP elections here, and might we have an ETA on indications?

Inquitus

badtoro wrote: »

When does the count start for the EP elections here, and might we have an ETA on indications?

Exit poll when the polls close tomorrow, count begins on Sunday, most results expected on Monday.

An Ciarraioch

Turnout observations in NI:

https://sluggerotoole.com/2019/05/23/ep19-election-day-open-thread/

Sir Oxman

Dublin for me and it's a difficult one with the left of centre field packed with three good candidates

I wouldn't like to lose Clare Daly from the Dail but for me she is the best of the field and the frontrunner for a left seat (exc Boylan)
Alice-Mary Higgins is very strong and I like Eilish Ryan of WP

The quandry is whether I put Daly #1 and Higgins #2 or vice versa or stick Boylan in at #2 to ensure maximum chance for left seat.
Choices:
#1 Daly #2 Boylan #3 Higgins
#1 Higgins #2 Daly #3 Boylan


The only other candidates I would preference after 1-3 is Gannon and Cuffe possibly - I rarely fill out the whole paper as I would never consider FG/FF/Lab no matter who they are or any of the other loons on this ballot (O'Doherty, Kelly, Gilroy etc)

Stephen15

For me it will be

1. Gemma O'Doherty
2. Ben Gilroy
3. Herman Kelly

blanch152

charlie14 wrote: »

European elections do not necessarily follow the party voting transfers, or even party support patterns of Dail or local elections. In 2014 for example, FG had a very good European election whereas their local elections were a bit of a disaster.

.

Maybe I am missing something, or maybe Wikipedia is wrong, but......

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_European_Parliament_election_in_Ireland

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Irish_local_elections

FG got 22.28% in the 2014 European elections
FG got 24% in the 2014 local elections.

I am confused as to how you conclue that they had a very good European election whereas their local elections were a bit of a disaster. To me, neither vote was very good, but the locals were significantly better than the Euros, which is the opposite of your post.

blanch152

is_that_so wrote: »

As I said more typical behaviour in Euros. I don't think your loose transfer hypothesis holds up, save for a Marian Harkin type. Neither Labour nor FG voters will opt for SF, some FF voters might. FF voters will give higher preferences to Labour and the Greens but rarely to FG. FG voters would be similar but also favour Labour and the Greens but never SF. Labour and the Green would favour most parties except SF. I don't think there will be a huge second preference out of Casey at all. Smith needs a good FPV, without it she's in.

Good analysis.

Casey transfers are likely to go all over the place. There is a certain element who will see him as more protest than Ming, but who will then give second preference to Ming, which really means Ming is safe, so long as he gets a decent first preference and Casey gets eliminated relatively early.

votecounts

.

blanch152

votecounts wrote: »

.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1130726/european-elections-exit-poll-uk-eu-elections


From this, it seems no. Actually, if EU countries are voting until Sunday, we can't count EU votes until then. However, if we are counting local elections, we will have some idea.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Maybe I am missing something, or maybe Wikipedia is wrong, but......

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_European_Parliament_election_in_Ireland

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Irish_local_elections

FG got 22.28% in the 2014 European elections
FG got 24% in the 2014 local elections.

I am confused as to how you conclue that they had a very good European election whereas their local elections were a bit of a disaster. To me, neither vote was very good, but the locals were significantly better than the Euros, which is the opposite of your post.

Euros 2014: 4 seats out of 12 going into the 2014 Euro election and came out with 4 out of 11 seats.

Local elections: Its vote share dropped by more than 12 percentage points since the general election and, despite the overall increase in the number of council seats, the party lost more than 100 from its total of 335.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Euros 2014: 4 seats out of 12 going into the 2014 Euro election and came out with 4 out of 11 seats.

Local elections: Its vote share dropped by more than 12 percentage points since the general election and, despite the overall increase in the number of council seats, the party lost more than 100 from its total of 335.

To be honest, I would always look at the number of people voting for you rather than the seats won.

Any election can result in seats being won or lost, but it is the number of votes that is the longer term indicator.

As an example, I am very interested in how the Green candidates do in Dublin 15 (or Dublin West as the constituency is known). If Daniel Whooley is elected, that increases the chances of the Greens taking a seat in the Dail election.

On a bigger point, peak Sinn Fein was in 2014 in terms of people voting for them. It will be interesting to compare next week.

Faugheen

blanch152 wrote: »

To be honest, I would always look at the number of people voting for you rather than the seats won.

Any election can result in seats being won or lost, but it is the number of votes that is the longer term indicator.

As an example, I am very interested in how the Green candidates do in Dublin 15 (or Dublin West as the constituency is known). If Daniel Whooley is elected, that increases the chances of the Greens taking a seat in the Dail election.

On a bigger point, peak Sinn Fein was in 2014 in terms of people voting for them. It will be interesting to compare next week.

Parties look at seats though. The more seats, the better chance of maintaining control of as many councils as it can and then being able to implement policies.

Vote share matters diddly squat unless it’s turning into seats.