European Parliament Elections 2019

is_that_so

VG31 wrote: »

Maybe he has been "parachuted in", but Durkan has a lot of political experience. Walsh has nothing.

She went for EU election nomination and they chose her. Seemingly she has done a lot of community work as well. Echoes of Harkin right there.

Yurt2

New Generation. Fresh Voice. Zig & Zag. Biker Mice From Mars. Pogs. Remember Pogs?!?

is_that_so

Yurt! wrote: »

New Generation. Fresh Voice. Zig & Zag. Biker Mice From Mars. Pogs. Remember Pogs?!?

Millennial voters?

Zubeneschamali

Lukas Agreeable Ranch wrote: »

I'll be voting Green, and only Green, in the Euros.

I'll vote Green #1, but she won't get in, so next Labour, who won't get in either, so then I'll vote all the way down to help FG beat Renua, FF and SF, all the way to the bottom so that I can register that I'd rather have a Direct Democracy looper than the only person I will leave off the ballot:


Casey.

jm08

is_that_so wrote: »

She went for EU election nomination and they chose her. Seemingly she has done a lot of community work as well. Echoes of Harkin right there.

Somone on one of the political parties were saying that FG decided to push Walsh in Kildare because it was one of the most supportive counties of repealing the 8th and the Same Sex Marriage referendum.

charlie14

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I'll vote Green #1, but she won't get in, so next Labour, who won't get in either, so then I'll vote all the way down to help FG beat Renua, FF and SF, all the way to the bottom so that I can register that I'd rather have a Direct Democracy looper than the only person I will leave off the ballot:


Casey.

Casey will be getting nothing from me, but it will be interesting to see how many number 1`s and transfers he gets.
From the polls it certainly appears we are very much pro the EU at the moment, but as a candidate in the Presidential election he appeared to garnered support from voters, on areas that if they were asked in polls, very much kept their views to themselves until he raised them.

damowill

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I'll vote Green #1, but she won't get in, so next Labour, who won't get in either, so then I'll vote all the way down to help FG beat Renua, FF and SF, all the way to the bottom so that I can register that I'd rather have a Direct Democracy looper than the only person I will leave off the ballot:


Casey.

Do you think Saoirse McHughs performance on prime time was enough to catapult her into the race? She did extremely well, and got a lot of social media attention. She may not have done a 'Casey Presidential election moment' but it was significant nonetheless.

Zubeneschamali

charlie14 wrote: »

From the polls it certainly appears we are very much pro the EU at the moment.

Casey is trying to soak up anti EU protest votes in a constituency that already has Ming elected as an anti EU protest candidate and Matt Carthy from a party at best lukewarm on the EU. Both of those MEPs would be pro neutrality and anti EU army.


Not much left over for Casey there. On PP right now, Maria Walsh is 4/6, Brendan Smith 6/4 and Casey out at 11/4 for that 4th seat.

is_that_so

jm08 wrote: »

Somone on one of the political parties were saying that FG decided to push Walsh in Kildare because it was one of the most supportive counties of repealing the 8th and the Same Sex Marriage referendum.

It's also to redistribute that huge McGuinness FPV. She's really only campaigning in Meath, Louth and Monaghan now. If they can get the Walsh FPV up to around 14% then they will take two seats comfortably.

Fan of Netflix

Casey was 4-1 yesterday, must have been a bit of cash put on.

is_that_so

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Casey is trying to soak up anti EU protest votes in a constituency that already has Ming elected as an anti EU protest candidate and Matt Carthy from a party at best lukewarm on the EU. Both of those MEPs would be pro neutrality and anti EU army.


Not much left over for Casey there. On PP right now, Maria Walsh is 4/6, Brendan Smith 6/4 and Casey out at 11/4 for that 4th seat.

Ming will get transfers and Carthy should be fine as well. Smith was very poor on TV the other night. He's really not a great candidate.

For Forks Sake

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Casey was 4-1 yesterday, must have been a bit of cash put on.

Put on others maybe, he was 6th favourite @ 2/1 earlier in the week

Zubeneschamali

is_that_so wrote: »

Smith was very poor on TV the other night. He's really not a great candidate.

Say "Cheese"!

Zubeneschamali

is_that_so wrote: »

Ming will get transfers and Carthy should be fine as well.

I think both are very safe - my point is that if you want to vote for an anti-establishment anti-EU candidate in MNW, you have credible options in Ming and Carthy already. Why protest vote for Casey?

Fan of Netflix

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think both are very safe - my point is that if you want to vote for an anti-establishment anti-EU candidate in MNW, you have credible options in Ming and Carthy already. Why protest vote for Casey?

True but the field is crowded on the left, Casey has plenty of space on the right. The anti immigration, anti traveller populist stuff probably will go well with a lot of people. Carthy and Ming wouldn't support that.

is_that_so

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

I think both are very safe - my point is that if you want to vote for an anti-establishment anti-EU candidate in MNW, you have credible options in Ming and Carthy already. Why protest vote for Casey?

No argument form me. I've never thought Casey had a hope and I would be pretty surprised to see him anywhere near the business end of the count.

is_that_so

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

True but the field is crowded on the left, Casey has plenty of space on the right. The anti immigration, anti traveller populist stuff probably will go well with a lot of people. Carthy and Ming wouldn't support that.

But there are not enough votes out there especially as voters will revert to their more usual voting patterns.

4068ac1elhodqr

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Casey was 4-1 yesterday, must have been a bit of cash put on.

Still at 3.75 that's an overall drift, was at one point just about 1.75 to get a seat in M-NW.



Could he still do it? Perhaps.

is_that_so

damowill wrote: »

Do you think Saoirse McHughs performance on prime time was enough to catapult her into the race? She did extremely well, and got a lot of social media attention. She may not have done a 'Casey Presidential election moment' but it was significant nonetheless.

The Green vote is not strong outside urban areas. It could be as high as 12% in Dublin but 5% would be good elsewhere.

is_that_so

Delaney Prickly Skylight wrote: »

Still at 3.75 that's an overall drift, was at one point just about 1.75 to get a seat in M-NW.



Could he still do it? Perhaps.

Not unless he gets an awful lot of transfers and he looks a lot more like a FPV candidate and nothing else. 10% or under will not get him a seat.

robwen

Smith should do okay from the McGuinness surplus

ancapailldorcha

Mod: This is a forum for serious discussion. Please bear that in mind.

Zubeneschamali

robwen wrote: »

Smith should do okay from the McGuinness surplus

Last time McGuinness had just 6408 surplus after the 5th count.

It went:

834 Pat the Cope FF
665 Byrne FF
643 Carthy SF

and:

4266 Harkin Ind

There is no way Smith will do OK on McGuiness's surplus.

robwen

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Last time McGuinness had just 6408 surplus after the 5th count.

It went:

834 Pat the Cope FF
665 Byrne FF
643 Carthy SF

and:

4266 Harkin Ind

There is no way Smith will do OK on McGuiness's surplus.

She was a new candidate in the constituency last time out that's why she didn't poll aswell, she is obviously hoovering up a lot of FF votes this time out from around Monaghan Cavan & surrounding areas where Smith would be at his strongest I'd expect quiet a few of them to go back to Smith

Fan of Netflix

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Last time McGuinness had just 6408 surplus after the 5th count.

It went:

834 Pat the Cope FF
665 Byrne FF
643 Carthy SF

and:

4266 Harkin Ind

There is no way Smith will do OK on McGuiness's surplus.

2 questions


1. How do they decide which votes to redistribute as surplus?
2. Surprisingly low number of transfers from Ming voters to Matt Carthy? Any idea why?

robman60

robwen wrote: »

She was a new candidate in the constituency last time out that's why she didn't poll aswell, she is obviously hoovering up a lot of FF votes this time out from around Monaghan Cavan & surrounding areas where Smith would be at his strongest I'd expect quiet a few of them to go back to Smith

Lol what are you on about? Neither McGuinness nor Harkin were new candidates last time.

People keep looking for the FF vote in MNW, but the reality is Casey is probably taking more from them than the other parties, and more importantly their two candidates are completely hopeless.

is_that_so

Zubeneschamali wrote: »

Last time McGuinness had just 6408 surplus after the 5th count.

It went:

834 Pat the Cope FF
665 Byrne FF
643 Carthy SF

and:

4266 Harkin Ind

There is no way Smith will do OK on McGuiness's surplus.

The other point here is that McGuinness got 28K of the Higgins preferences. Only Harkin got any real benefit from him otherwise.

nice_guy80

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

2 questions


1. How do they decide which votes to redistribute as surplus?
2. Surprisingly low number of transfers from Ming voters to Matt Carthy? Any idea why?

because Ming's voters aren't shinners?

is_that_so

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

2 questions


1. How do they decide which votes to redistribute as surplus?
2. Surprisingly low number of transfers from Ming voters to Matt Carthy? Any idea why?

1. Sampling I believe.
2. Ming had a surplus of about 200 when he made the quota so they wouldn't have bothered as they could make no material difference.

robwen

robman60 wrote: »

Lol what are you on about? Neither McGuinness nor Harkin were new candidates last time.

People keep looking for the FF vote in MNW, but the reality is Casey is probably taking more from them than the other parties, and more importantly their two candidates are completely hopeless.

Check your facts, McGuiness ran in the old Leinster constituency in the 04 & 09 Euro elections 2014 was her first time running in this constituency