European Parliament Elections 2019

is_that_so

robwen wrote: »

She was a new candidate in the constituency last time out that's why she didn't poll aswell, she is obviously hoovering up a lot of FF votes this time out from around Monaghan Cavan & surrounding areas where Smith would be at his strongest I'd expect quiet a few of them to go back to Smith

You mean it was a new constituency. She's likely to hoover votes up anywhere people are worried about Brexit. Most of the surplus will go to Walsh so it doesn't matter how Smith does out of it.

is_that_so

robwen wrote: »

Check your facts, McGuiness ran in the old Leinster constituency in the 04 & 09 Euro elections 2014 was her first time running in this constituency

As it was for everyone else so they were all "new" candidates, which makes it a pretty pointless fact.

robman60

robwen wrote: »

Check your facts, McGuiness ran in the old Leinster constituency in the 04 & 09 Euro elections 2014 was her first time running in this constituency

Sure by that definition none of the candidates was in before except Lynn Boylan I'm Dublin. The others have been redrawn.

I still think Casey has a chance if he can manage to get 1 or 2% more than he's polling. Could transfer from O'Dowd of renua and FHE I think, who will probably get around 5% between them. Smith will go close but I just think they haven't the votes for such bland candidates.

Fan of Netflix

Entire Army, their families and army veterans are voting against Fine Gael in protest. Should this have any impact? Unsure how many people that would be.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/defence-forces-personnel-voting-against-fine-gael-in-protest-over-pay-and-conditions-926040.html

robwen

is_that_so wrote: »

As it was for everyone else so they were all "new" candidates, which makes it a pretty pointless fact.

Oh look little point trying to discuss with folk here most of ye have your own agendas to push, going by this thread no one's voting for the 2 biggest parties in the state, FG & FF will have no one elected, goodluck tomor don't forget to vote early & vote often

is_that_so

robman60 wrote: »

Sure by that definition none of the candidates was in before except Lynn Boylan I'm Dublin. The others have been redrawn.

I still think Casey has a chance if he can manage to get 1 or 2% more than he's polling. Could transfer from O'Dowd of renua and FHE I think, who will probably get around 5% between them. Smith will go close but I just think they haven't the votes for such bland candidates.

O'Dowd will barely register and he's FG gene pool. Once they've sorted the McGuinness surplus I expect them to eliminate up to PBP chap at least, maybe including him. Ming will get votes from them as will Carthy. Not convinced about Casey's ability to attract transfers. Next to go will be Labour and Greens - not votes for Casey there and then finally and crucially for Smith his running mate. If Casey gets any of those he's sunk.

is_that_so

Fan of Netflix wrote: »

Entire Army, their families and army veterans are voting against Fine Gael in protest. Should this have any impact? Unsure how many people that would be.

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/defence-forces-personnel-voting-against-fine-gael-in-protest-over-pay-and-conditions-926040.html

Maybe in the locals, which is regularly the protest vote. EU constituencies are probably far too big to be too adversely affected.

is_that_so

robwen wrote: »

Oh look little point trying to discuss with folk here most of ye have your own agendas to push, going by this thread no one's voting for the 2 biggest parties in the state, FG & FF will have no one elected, goodluck tomor don't forget to vote early & vote often

In this constituency FG may get 2 and FF may get none. I think most people agree that Ming & Carthy should be OK.

eagle eye

I'm not voting for them but I think people will be surprised at the Sinn Fein vote.
I travel all around the constituency with the exception of Kildare, Meath and Louth. A hell of a lot of people told me they are giving Carthy their no.1
Now that's just me counting numbers in my head but a hell of a lot of people have said that. I would not be surprised if Carthy topped the poll.

FrancieBrady

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm not voting for them but I think people will be surprised at the Sinn Fein vote. They could be in the running for two seats. I travel all around the constituency with the exception of Kildare, Meath and Louth. A lot of people are talking about voting Sinn Fein 1 and 2.
Now that's just me counting numbers in my head but a hell of a lot of people have said that. I would not be surprised if Carthy topped the poll.

Two seats? Neat trick if they pull that off, considering they are only running one candidate in each constituency.

James Brown

The SD's make it so hard. I keep hoping.
Saw this today. Its brave but foolish. It may appeal to a younger design interested group but such a bad idea IMO.

Faugheen

is_that_so wrote: »

1. Sampling I believe.
2. Ming had a surplus of about 200 when he made the quota so they wouldn't have bothered as they could make no material difference.

It's slightly different for a first count surplus re: how it's distributed. However holds the surplus has all of their FPVs sorted depending on the number 2.

So say for example Mairead McGuinness gets 180,000 FPV the Quota is 120,000. That leaves a surplus of 60,000. They'll sort all of her FPVs by whoever is the second preference.

When the sorting is done, if half of McGuinness' FPV are going to Maria Walsh at number 2, then half of the surplus (30,000 in this case) will be allocated to Walsh.

If a quarter of McGuinness is going to Matt Carthy, then a quarter of the surplus (15,000) will go to him and so on.

I understand that might make zero sense.

is_that_so

Faugheen wrote: »

It's slightly different for a first count surplus re: how it's distributed. However holds the surplus has all of their FPVs sorted depending on the number 2.

So say for example Mairead McGuinness gets 180,000 FPV the Quota is 120,000. That leaves a surplus of 60,000. They'll sort all of her FPVs by whoever is the second preference.

When the sorting is done, if half of McGuinness' FPV are going to Maria Walsh at number 2, then half of the surplus (30,000 in this case) will be allocated to Walsh.

If a quarter of McGuinness is going to Matt Carthy, then a quarter of the surplus (15,000) will go to him and so on.

I understand that might make zero sense.

No it's perfectly clear.

Macha

I remember Claire Byrne of the Green Part had an explainer somewhere that made sense to me as the time..

charlie14

is_that_so wrote: »

O'Dowd will barely register and he's FG gene pool. Once they've sorted the McGuinness surplus I expect them to eliminate up to PBP chap at least, maybe including him. Ming will get votes from them as will Carthy. Not convinced about Casey's ability to attract transfers. Next to go will be Labour and Greens - not votes for Casey there and then finally and crucially for Smith his running mate. If Casey gets any of those he's sunk.

I would doubt Casey getting many transfers from Smith`s running mate. I wouldn`t rule out Smith getting some of the McGuinness surplus due to geographical factors though.Maybe not a lot, but could be enough to push him over the line.

is_that_so

charlie14 wrote: »

I would doubt Casey getting many transfers from Smith`s running mate. I wouldn`t rule out Smith getting some of the McGuinness surplus due to geographical factors though.Maybe not a lot, but could be enough to push him over the line.

Smith's problem is that he seems to be very low on FPV support but he's been pretty unimpressive. I don't think he'll get that many from McGuinness. Walsh potentially has a huge pile waiting for her, which would leave her too far ahead of him. The Casey thing I include as an example of FF getting it wrong. I really don't think he's in anyway transfer friendly.

blanch152

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm not voting for them but I think people will be surprised at the Sinn Fein vote.
I travel all around the constituency with the exception of Kildare, Meath and Louth. A hell of a lot of people told me they are giving Carthy their no.1
Now that's just me counting numbers in my head but a hell of a lot of people have said that. I would not be surprised if Carthy topped the poll.

I would really be surprised if Carthy topped the poll.

If that turns out to be the case, it could only be because FG have split the vote evenly between their two candidates. That could well give FG two seats.

Loafing Oaf

Cuffe has gone in to 1/5 with PP, only slightly longer than Boylan and Andrews now. South seems to have tightened up though, very little between Wallace O'Sullivan and Byrne for (presumably) the last seat.

is_that_so

blanch152 wrote: »

I would really be surprised if Carthy topped the poll.

If that turns out to be the case, it could only be because FG have split the vote evenly between their two candidates. That could well give FG two seats.

If support levels are true it will guarantee two seats. Think Carthy will come in mid-teens, probably ahead of Ming. McGuinness I'd expect to be above 20%.

is_that_so

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Cuffe has gone in to 1/5 with PP, only slightly longer than Boylan and Andrews now. South seems to have tightened up though, very little between Wallace O'Sullivan and Byrne for (presumably) the last seat.

All about being far enough ahead of the pack. Last seats may well be decided below the quotas.

charlie14

is_that_so wrote: »

Smith's problem is that he seems to be very low on FPV support but he's been pretty unimpressive. I don't think he'll get that many from McGuinness. Walsh potentially has a huge pile waiting for her, which would leave her too far ahead of him. The Casey thing I include as an example of FF getting it wrong. I really don't think he's in anyway transfer friendly.

I`m not that sure McGuinness having a huge pile of transfers will be better for Walsh than if the two of them split the vote evenly between them. Walsh is new, and geography could play a part in where McGuinness`s transfers go with Smith being from Cavan.

If McGuinness and Walsh`s votes are closer together, McGuinness would make it anyway as she is very transfer friendly. I may be wrong but for Walsh to take that seat, then I feel she will most likely have to be a few points better than Smith on the first count as he will get the vast bulk of Rabbitte`s transfer when she is eliminated.
The other question is if it does end up with the final seat between Walsh and Smith, where will Casey`s vote go when he is eliminated.
I would imagine they are more FF gene pool than FG.

is_that_so

charlie14 wrote: »

I`m not that sure McGuinness having a huge pile of transfers will be better for Walsh than if the two of them split the vote evenly between them. Walsh is new, and geography could play a part in where McGuinness`s transfers go with Smith being from Cavan.

If McGuinness and Walsh`s votes are closer together, McGuinness would make it anyway as she is very transfer friendly. I may be wrong but for Walsh to take that seat, then I feel she will most likely have to be a few points better than Smith on the first count as he will get the vast bulk of Rabbitte`s transfer when she is eliminated.

FG seem to be working towards that with her over as far as Kildare campaigning. Yeah it is easier to have the FPVs higher. If Walsh gets to low teens on FPVs then they have the second seat. I don't know why you imagine transfers for Smith off McGuinness over her running mate. In 2014 she got the vast majority of transfers from Higgins. Only Harkin got anything worthwhile. Walsh seems to be a good distance ahead of Smith. She would be transfer friendly and could reasonably expect votes from both the Greens and Labour. Their share should be 5%-6% at least and a fair number of those cancels out the Rabbitte transfers.

johnnyskeleton

robwen wrote: »

Oh look little point trying to discuss with folk here most of ye have your own agendas to push, going by this thread no one's voting for the 2 biggest parties in the state, FG & FF will have no one elected, goodluck tomor don't forget to vote early & vote often

Mod note:

More constructive posts please

charlie14

is_that_so wrote: »

FG seem to be working towards that with her over as far as Kildare campaigning. Yeah it is easier to have the FPVs higher. If Walsh gets to low teens on FPVs then they have the second seat. I don't know why you imagine transfers for Smith off McGuinness over her running mate. In 2014 she got the vast majority of transfers from Higgins. Only Harkin got anything worthwhile. Walsh seems to be a good distance ahead of Smith. She would be transfer friendly and could reasonably expect votes from both the Greens and Labour. They share should be 5%-6% at least and a fair number of those cancels out the Rabbitte transfers.

European elections do not always follow the tight transfers between running mates you have in General Elections where both would be well known in a relatively small geographical area. Neighbours children can often come in for a consideration as much as party where you have a large geographical spread. Especially in rural border areas.

is_that_so

charlie14 wrote: »

European elections do not always follow the tight transfers between running mates you have in General Elections where both would be well known in a relatively small geographical area. Neighbours children can often come in for a consideration as much as party where you have a large geographical spread. Especially in rural border areas.

I think you're really stretching here especially in imagining sizable FG transfers to FF. He may get a few but Walsh would get the lion's share of them, if FG have their vote management right. By the same argument you one could claim some of Rabbitte's transfers will go to Walsh.

Galwayguy35

is_that_so wrote: »

Based on what?

She's not popular this side of the country and she needs every voteshe can get.

Galwayguy35

is_that_so wrote: »

Casey will not get the transfers.

Granted he made a bit of a hames of it in the debate but i think he might do better than people think.

I wouldn't write him off just yet.

is_that_so

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

She's not popular this side of the country and she needs every voteshe can get.

She has a running mate who should top the poll at over 20%, probably quite a bit over. She herself currently seems to be in the pack on 10%. That's not unpopular at all. If they get the transfers right and she is on 10%+ she'll be elected.

is_that_so

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

Granted he made a bit of a hames of it in the debate but i think he might do better than people think.

I wouldn't write him off just yet.

Who'll give him 2nd preferences etc. ? If you vote for any other candidate, except maybe Renua, he's really not someone you might consider. As I've said before there are parallels with Ganley in 2009 - he needs to be close to 15% FPV to have any hope because he will not attract too many transfers.

Galwayguy35

is_that_so wrote: »

She has a running mate who should top the poll at over 20%, probably quite a bit over. She herself currently seems to be in the pack on 10%. That's not unpopular at all. If they get the transfers right and she is on 10%+ she'll be elected.

So you think she could get the 4th seat?

I'd say McGuinness, Carty and Ming will get the first 3, would you agree with that?