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European Parliament Elections 2019

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    #392
    An Ciarraioch
    Registered Users Posts: 5,800 ✭✭✭An Ciarraioch


    Fan of Netflix wrote: »
    She was impressive last night. But how much will last night debate influence it. She is unknown and has massive ground to make up. Casey will still get a decent protest vote I reckon.

    Casey got over 123,000 first preference votes in the Midlands North West constituency in the Presidential election in October. Unless that totally collapses, he has a very good chance IMO. I won't be voting for him either, but think it's worth a few quid at 4-1 tbh.

    Of course, that was in the absence of either FG or FF.


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    #393
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,016 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Fan of Netflix wrote: »
    She was impressive last night. But how much will last night debate influence it. She is unknown and has massive ground to make up. Casey will still get a decent protest vote I reckon.

    Casey got over 123,000 first preference votes in the Midlands North West constituency in the Presidential election in October. Unless that totally collapses, he has a very good chance IMO. I won't be voting for him either, but think it's worth a few quid at 4-1 tbh.

    Where is he going to get transfers from though? Looks like the only candidate with much of a surplus will be McGuinness, and I can see too many of them going to Casey. Ditto with likely eliminated candidates with a decent vote like Hannigan and McHugh.


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    #394
    Inquitus
    Registered Users Posts: 13,734 ✭✭✭✭Inquitus


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Of course, that was in the absence of either FG or FF.

    I'd like to think he's done enough self damage not to get elected, he is not the sort of man we want representing us as President or as an MEP.


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    #395
    Fan of Netflix
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,167 ✭✭✭Fan of Netflix


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Where is he going to get transfers from though? Looks like the only candidate with much of a surplus will be McGuinness, and I can see too many of them going to Casey. Ditto with likely eliminated candidates with a decent vote like Hannigan and McHugh.

    I'd say he'll pick up a fair few transfers from the Renua lad, Fidelma Healy Eames, and the Fianna Fail candidate.


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    #396
    Galwayguy35
    Registered Users Posts: 16,285 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    An Ciarraioch wrote: »
    Take note of Paddy Power odds, where he has drifted out from 2/1 yesterday to 4-1, while Saoirse McHugh of the Greens has come into that figure from 50/1 - pretty much the exact opposite of what happened during the presidential campaign.

    McGuinness, Ming and Carty will get 3 seats I think and the 4th is the one up for grabs.

    Smith could get it I think or outside bet maybe Casey.


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    #397
    eagle eye
    Registered Users Posts: 37,527 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    Inquitus wrote: »
    I'd like to think he's done enough self damage not to get elected, he is not the sort of man we want representing us as President or as an MEP.
    He would be better than Walsh, she hasn't a clue and isn't very smart.


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    #398
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 66,929 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    eagle eye wrote: »
    He would be better than Walsh, she hasn't a clue and isn't very smart.

    And a man who wanted to leave the Euro one week and then didn't the next, does have a 'clue'?


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    #399
    Faugheen
    Site Banned Posts: 12,341 ✭✭✭✭Faugheen


    Fan of Netflix wrote: »
    She was impressive last night. But how much will last night debate influence it. She is unknown and has massive ground to make up. Casey will still get a decent protest vote I reckon.

    Casey got over 123,000 first preference votes in the Midlands North West constituency in the Presidential election in October. Unless that totally collapses, he has a very good chance IMO. I won't be voting for him either, but think it's worth a few quid at 4-1 tbh.

    Greens are going to be very transfer friendly and she wasn’t that far off Smith, Casey, Walsh et al in the polls. If Labour candidate polls in the 5/6% mark and isn’t eliminated before her then she comes right into the mix I reckon.

    I think she’ll just miss out but she won’t be far away whatsoever. If the Greens get three seats then they’re the big winners of the election from my point of view.

    Green issues have been a big thing in this election and they’ve campaigned extremely well. A lot of voters will recognise that these are the issues they’ve been talking about for years and they’re finally coming to fruition.


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    #400
    eagle eye
    Registered Users Posts: 37,527 ✭✭✭✭eagle eye


    FrancieBrady wrote:
    And a man who wanted to leave the Euro one week and then didn't the next, does have a 'clue'?
    He has more of a clue than her. She is possibly the dumbest person ever to contest an election.


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    #401
    Moghead
    Registered Users Posts: 353 ✭✭Moghead


    eagle eye wrote: »
    He has more of a clue than her. She is possibly the dumbest person ever to contest an election.

    Fidelma Healy Eames? Peter O'Loughlin?


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    #402
    VinLieger
    Registered Users Posts: 17,653 ✭✭✭✭VinLieger


    eagle eye wrote: »
    He has more of a clue than her. She is possibly the dumbest person ever to contest an election.

    Gemma o doherty? Ben Gilroy? Any of the 2nd tier healy rays?

    Bit of a sweeping statement there


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    #403
    gmisk
    Registered Users Posts: 31,852 ✭✭✭✭gmisk


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/website-targeting-eu-candidate-s-sexuality-boosted-by-google-ads-ch9hmqvp8

    I am not a fan of Maria Walsh but this is pretty horrible behaviour...the guy behind it seems like a total loon


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    #404
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 66,929 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    eagle eye wrote: »
    He has more of a clue than her. She is possibly the dumbest person ever to contest an election.

    Not a remotely credible comparison. Is there a candidate in the field that has bumbled about on critical areas of policy as much as him?
    You might not like what she has to say, but at least she is together enough to have a coherent stance.


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    #405
    robman60
    Registered Users Posts: 2,222 ✭✭✭robman60


    Does anyone think Ming might be in a little bit of a precarious position? I still think he will get in, but I was thinking green party might take some of his vote (even if his old issue is actually anti-environmentalist), his prospective vote took a hit in recent polls, and his support is highest, by a long shot, amongst the young, those least likely to vote.

    As I said I still think he will get in but not comfortably by any means.


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    #406
    Fan of Netflix
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,167 ✭✭✭Fan of Netflix


    Faugheen wrote: »
    Greens are going to be very transfer friendly and she wasn’t that far off Smith, Casey, Walsh et al in the polls. If Labour candidate polls in the 5/6% mark and isn’t eliminated before her then she comes right into the mix I reckon.

    I think she’ll just miss out but she won’t be far away whatsoever. If the Greens get three seats then they’re the big winners of the election from my point of view.

    Green issues have been a big thing in this election and they’ve campaigned extremely well. A lot of voters will recognise that these are the issues they’ve been talking about for years and they’re finally coming to fruition.


    The Greens poll well in Dublin (12% in the most recent SBP poll) but not here they had only 3% in Connacht Ulster in the same poll. Of course those polls should be taken with a pinch of salt, but they do tally with previous election results. They are seen as pro carbon tax (and every other tax) anti farmer, anti motorist and a mainly Dublin centric party. They don't even have a presence in vast swathes of the constituency.

    Greens depend on the young vote (who don't vote) and well off people in Dublin who use public transport. In other words anyone without a car.


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    #407
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,517 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Fan of Netflix wrote: »
    The Greens poll well in Dublin (12% in the most recent SBP poll) but not here they had only 3% in Connacht Ulster in the same poll. Of course those polls should be taken with a pinch of salt, but they do tally with previous election results. They are seen as pro carbon tax (and every other tax) anti farmer, anti motorist and a mainly Dublin centric party. They don't even have a presence in vast swathes of the constituency.

    Greens depend on the young vote (who don't vote) and well off people in Dublin who use public transport. In other words anyone without a car.

    Saoirse doesn't fit this narrative.

    She is pro community delivered services which should appeal to rural people.


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    #408
    Fan of Netflix
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,167 ✭✭✭Fan of Netflix


    Tell me how wrote: »
    Saoirse doesn't fit this narrative.

    She is pro community delivered services which should appeal to rural people.
    Well she's from Achill Island so that does help in that regard. I like her and wouldn't mind if she got the 4th seat, even if I've no real time for the Greens.


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    #409
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,845 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    Fan of Netflix wrote: »
    The Greens poll well in Dublin (12% in the most recent SBP poll) but not here they had only 3% in Connacht Ulster in the same poll. Of course those polls should be taken with a pinch of salt, but they do tally with previous election results. They are seen as pro carbon tax (and every other tax) anti farmer, anti motorist and a mainly Dublin centric party. They don't even have a presence in vast swathes of the constituency.

    Greens depend on the young vote (who don't vote) and well off people in Dublin who use public transport. In other words anyone without a car.




    Well off people in Dublin that use public transport!!


    Your way off the mark there. More middle class in Dublin use the public transport.


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    #410
    Fan of Netflix
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,167 ✭✭✭Fan of Netflix


    average_runner wrote: »
    Well off people in Dublin that use public transport!!


    Your way off the mark there. More middle class in Dublin use the public transport.
    I meant middle class. The very well off have cars, fly around in big SUV's and vote Fine Gael.


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    #411
    Zubeneschamali
    Registered Users Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    robman60 wrote: »
    Does anyone think Ming might be in a little bit of a precarious position?


    Its interesting that both Ming and McGuinness were popular last time, both are running on their EU Parliament record, but McGuinness has overtaken Mings poll-topping last time out.

    Ming's slogan is "taking the job seriously" but he was elected as a euro sceptic anti-environmentalist protest candidate, and jumping from that to "taking the job seriously" and sitting with the Nordic Greens is a bit of whiplash for his supporters.


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    #412
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,517 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Fan of Netflix wrote: »
    Well she's from Achill Island so that does help in that regard. I like her and wouldn't mind if she got the 4th seat, even if I've no real time for the Greens.

    Greens are unproven in terms of governing or developing practical policies in terms of industry, the economy and health for example. But, they're raisin d'etre, the environment, is the area in most need of attention in my view so I'm going support any reasonably capable green candidate where I can.


    The whole 'car' topic is bizarre. To spend so much (of Net income) on something we use so little of (percentage of time wise) in many cases purely for a perceived sense of convenience is either a failing of society or a success for the industry, depending on your perspective.


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    #413
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,845 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    Fan of Netflix wrote: »
    I meant middle class. The very well off have cars, fly around in big SUV's and vote Fine Gael.


    I think you find they vote FF and FG mainly.


    To be honest there is not that much of choice in Ireland.


    SF are a lost sheep and need a leader.
    Labour are just Labour
    The other smaller parties are nothing.


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    #414
    Fan of Netflix
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,167 ✭✭✭Fan of Netflix


    Zubeneschamali wrote: »
    .

    Ming's slogan is "taking the job seriously" but he was elected as a euro sceptic anti-environmentalist protest candidate, and jumping from that to "taking the job seriously" and sitting with the Nordic Greens is a bit of whiplash for his supporters.
    Not sure what you mean here? He sat with that group last time along with Sinn Fein. They are the socialist group in the parliament. The Greens are a different group called the European Greens.


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    #415
    Fan of Netflix
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,167 ✭✭✭Fan of Netflix


    average_runner wrote: »
    I think you find they vote FF and FG mainly.


    To be honest there is not that much of choice in Ireland.


    SF are a lost sheep and need a leader.
    Labour are just Labour
    The other smaller parties are nothing.
    I agree with you, I'm mainly voting Independent if there is a decent Independent.


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    #416
    FreudianSlippers
    Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    average_runner wrote: »
    Well off people in Dublin that use public transport!!


    Your way off the mark there. More middle class in Dublin use the public transport.
    Define "middle class" and "well off"?


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    #417
    FreudianSlippers
    Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    Fan of Netflix wrote: »
    I agree with you, I'm mainly voting Independent if there is a decent Independent.
    There's really only one in Dublin, but unfortunately I cannot remember his name.


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    #418
    robman60
    Registered Users Posts: 2,222 ✭✭✭robman60


    average_runner wrote: »
    I think you find they vote FF and FG mainly.


    To be honest there is not that much of choice in Ireland.


    SF are a lost sheep and need a leader.
    Labour are just Labour
    The other smaller parties are nothing.

    This pretty much. I'm not in Ireland at the moment but nothing even appeals to me slightly. Seems they're all targeting the same sort of voter. Anything anti-establishment will get a bit of a hearing because the main parties are so similar.

    Normally find myself backing some no-hoper #1 then back to the usual rubbish of FF followed by FG because at least they have the least unviable economic plans.


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    #419
    Tell me how
    Registered Users Posts: 21,517 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    average_runner wrote: »
    I think you find they vote FF and FG mainly.


    To be honest there is not that much of choice in Ireland.


    SF are a lost sheep and need a leader.
    Labour are just Labour
    The other smaller parties are nothing.

    There is a lot of choice in Ireland. Way more than some places. Look at the US for example.

    Granted FG, FF are never really out of power but Labour have had considerable influence here, SF are approaching consideration in this respect and I'm hopeful the greens will at least help support strategy development to benefit the environment which is of paramount importance.


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    #420
    Fan of Netflix
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 1,167 ✭✭✭Fan of Netflix


    Tell me how wrote: »
    Greens are unproven in terms of governing or developing practical policies in terms of industry, the economy and health for example. But, they're raisin d'etre, the environment, is the area in most need of attention in my view so I'm going support any reasonably capable green candidate where I can.


    The whole 'car' topic is bizarre. To spend so much (of Net income) on something we use so little of (percentage of time wise) in many cases purely for a perceived sense of convenience is either a failing of society or a success for the industry, depending on your perspective.
    I don't agree with the carbon tax at all, and it's overly targeting people less well off when they should be going after corporations.

    It's fine saying we should get rid of cars, ideally we should, but unless there is a massive improvement in public transport it won't happen. Public transport outside Dublin in this country is an utter disgrace and non existent in many cases. I don't see any improvement coming. I personally believe the train service should be vastly improved, there isn't even a train in my constituency or Donegal. There needs to be a serious discussion about the future of public transport in this country.


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    #421
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,845 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    Tell me how wrote: »
    There is a lot of choice in Ireland. Way more than some places. Look at the US for example.

    Granted FG, FF are never really out of power but Labour have had considerable influence here, SF are approaching consideration in this respect and I'm hopeful the greens will at least help support strategy development to benefit the environment which is of paramount importance.




    But as long as FG/FF are the majority parties in goverment, the small ones can have no influence.


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