Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

snowstorm445

Marengo wrote: »

I know this is FI but also relates to a trend this (and indeed many) winters. The eye candy gets pushed out.

Rushed Kingdom called it well this morning.

Anyway as Nacho Libre says, maybe the ole ECM will stick to it's guns.

It was ever thus. Story of the Irish winter really.

I’m quite sure we’ll be looking at the exact same set of FI mirage charts at the start of February for mid February.

Marengo

Gonzo wrote: »

It's very frustrating, none of the charts can be relied upon really. After 2 or 3 good runs we're now back to where we were 2 nights ago. Still looking promising for the last few days of January but it would be nice to have some reliable eye candy for next week, something for us to all look forward to over the weekend.

The way i look at it is FI is at 7 days or so. We have potential for the very end of January and the month of February. And if it's a year we don't get snow and cold, at the end of February we'll have longer days and Spring and Summer to look forward to.

The game is far from over. We're still at mid winter.

Ultimate Seduction

I don't really care weather it snows or not, I can't control it so what will be will be..

I know the kids love it too an obviously some adults, BUT.. Do the adults on here who are almost praying for snow not drive, or work? I can't stand it! Have to leave almost an hour earlier for work, crawl at about 30 kph the whole way. Spent ALOT more on heating costs ect.

ednwireland

first snow of the winter on the high point of the bluestack mountains today (just !)

nacho libre

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Do the adults on here who are almost praying for snow not drive, or work?
Have to leave almost an hour earlier for work, crawl at about 30 kph the whole way. Spent ALOT more on heating costs ect.

Well this question is new.
Yes. I had to drive on some untreated roads last year during the beast from the east. I still love to see the snow coming.

sryanbruen

KingdomRushed wrote: »

Some good members still showing on the GFS ensembles for snow and cold. Could swing back yet but overall trend for first bite at an easterly is fading a little

No evidence at all of an easterly on the ensemble mean just again revealing the uncertainty with wild swings like this and Fantasy Island truly living up to its name.

Mortelaro

2 days ago on the GFS,there wasn't a whiff of an easterly or northeasterly, it's the storm up north pushing the high south that's it's problem
That's a while away yet and changes often
No need to cast in stone ,wait untill Sunday,ye will do yer heads in

Marengo

sryanbruen wrote: »

No evidence at all of an easterly on the ensemble mean just again revealing the uncertainty with wild swings like this and Fantasy Island truly living up to its name.

I suppose it really comes down to this American low pressure. Feckin America and Europe and, our location, gulf stream, and everyone effecting our weather! Though from a farming background so without the gulf stream i wouldn't be a happy camper either!

JCX BXC

For weather enthusiasts, it's a pity we're getting very little weather so to speak, no storms, no frost's, no snow etc.

Gonzo

We had no idea how good we had it in the run up to November/December 2010 and last winters Beast From The East/Storm Emma with mostly easy and consistent runs. This has been a forecasting nightmare and we still have no guarantee of what will happen after Sunday/Monday.

Perhaps a break from model watching for 1 to 2 days might be a good idea and come back to it on Saturday with a fresh mind.

highdef

nacho libre wrote: »

The system off the coast of America is to blame. The GFS has moved towards the Icon and UKMO. As to whether the ECM remains steadfast. I would not bank on it.
The real problem is the high in the Atlantic just can't get northwards it seems. So everything gets flattened out. It looks like Gaoth Laidir might be proved right the way its going now:(

You can almost ALWAYS trust Gaoth Laidir when he speaks up. He's a person with an unbiased opinion and does not let emotions get in his way.

Marengo

That great month February is still there. It gives us hope even if Sunday's forecast isn't great.

1947, 1986, 1991, 2018 etc.

Lucreto

Just reading that Ontario and Quebec may hit -30c this weekend.

So unfair

Ultimate Seduction

Lucreto wrote: »

Just reading that Ontario and Quebec may hit -30c this weekend.

So unfair

Just reading that parts of Australia to hit +50°c today.

So unfair..

Marengo

Also i know a few posters have made the point on here that when it wasn't snowing 28th Feb-2nd March last year we had the dripping of melting snow.

Firstly the sun is much stronger at that time so you will have roofs dripping etc, even when it's cloudy solar radiation gets in. However on the 1st March most of the country had an air temp below freezing. So this drip water was freezing in the shade.

I had been of the opinion that it was difficult to get a really severe snow event and cold post 20th Feb. I was proven wrong. So February can deliver.

Also on St. Patrick's Day in Twickenham it was -2C during the Grand Slam game. That cold travelled over to us. It just shows well into March an ice day is possible.

Mortelaro

This is what the NWS have to say in their scientific discussion about the late w/end northeaster storm in the New York area

I've bolded the bit where they think the GFS and Gefs is/are mild outliers amongst other comments on uncertainty

This has
led to a consensus of a colder solution and a track of the low
further south and east than the previous forecast package. Dprog/dt
on the recent deterministic runs shows this general trend well
except the GFS/gefs which appear to be an outlier solution and
remain much warmer than the rest of the guidance. The main energy
with the southern stream wave will be coming onshore today. There is
also sensitivity as noted above with the how much the polar jet
interacts and phases with the southern stream, so changes in track
forecast are still possible in subsequent forecast packages.

Chris_5339762

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Just reading that parts of Australia to hit +50°c today.

So unfair..

Nuts to both of those values, I'll take 9º and cloudy!

now online

According to my Google home there'll be snow in cork on 25th of January ðŸ˜

Little snowy old me

sryanbruen wrote: »

That has to be the least depressing or negative comment I've heard from you ever on this forum.

Thanks, I think.

Marengo

Back on track:)

kittyn

Love it Marengo

highdef

Marengo wrote: »

Back on track:)

As long as that Scandi high does not continue to venture south, then it's lopking great again. A very interesting run!!! F5 F5 F5 F5 F5!

sryanbruen

Marengo wrote: »

I had been of the opinion that it was difficult to get a really severe snow event and cold post 20th Feb. I was proven wrong. So February can deliver.

Well not quite sure on the cold but one of Ireland's worst blizzards occurred at the start of April 1917.

https://www.rte.ie/centuryireland/index.php/articles/coldest-irish-april-for-36-years

Winter 1916-17 was a very snowy Winter in general (January had some stonker snowfalls too) and it occurred in the middle of World War I.

Marengo

kittyn wrote: »

Love it Marengo

Hope the GFS 18Z returns to cold and we can sleep soundly:)

DOCARCH

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

I don't really care weather it snows or not, I can't control it so what will be will be...

With age, I have ended up in your boat!

Absolutely love snow, but have gotten over the stress/highs/lows/joy/disappointment of model watching.

Marengo

sryanbruen wrote: »

Well not quite sure on the cold but one of Ireland's worst blizzards occurred at the start of April 1917.

https://www.rte.ie/centuryireland/index.php/articles/coldest-irish-april-for-36-years

Winter 1916-17 was a very snowy Winter in general (January had some stonker snowfalls too) and it occurred in the middle of World War I.

Yes. A few deaths with people who got caught in drifts 1st April 1917. Mercury hit -8C.

Reckless Abandonment

Looking very cold

MidMan25

-22 here this morning, it doesn't feel a whole lot different to -12 to be honest!

NMB

I must be the only on who’s enjoying the model watching it’s been super exciting. Soap opera models - crazy forecasts and outputs then all hopes dashed and then a new episode on the next days run. The signals for cold are there but the result and wish goalposts keep moving.

Thing is the trend is cold and it’s only a matter of when not if that we get proper snow.

It has been said many times over the last few weeks we’ll get a few bites of the cherry and then the whole pavlova- have faith the game is just half time - still all to play for !

SleetAndSnow

Im also loving the ups and downs of this rollercoaster ride, so much better then the last few months of the boring high, where will cloud be predicting.

Needless to say the ECM has us in the freezer at 216 hrs hehe