Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

MajesticDonkey

pad199207 wrote: »

We’re going through the most volatile period in winter weather watching history and yee come in here wanting to know what the weather is in Spain?:p

My sincere apologies! :pac: :pac:

Just looking to see if I can get some heat into me before coming back to the snow and the inevitable cold and flu that'll come with it

patneve2

KingdomRushed wrote: »

This is ridiculous hyperbole. Tonight’s ECM would not bring anything of the sort! It’s a few days of an easterly with highish pressure to boot reducing snow shower potential. Hopefully people coming here for common sense takes won’t be taking talk of ‘frozen rivers’ seriously.

Have to agree. With high enough pressure and poor thicknesses we'd be lucky to get light to moderate graupel showers if tonight's ECM came to fruition. All conjecture at this stage but its ridiculous to compare tonight's run with the ridiculously cold and snowy set up that came about in 87.

Artane2002

patneve2 wrote: »

Have to agree. With high enough pressure and poor thicknesses we'd be lucky to get light to moderate graupel showers if tonight's ECM came to fruition. All conjecture at this stage but its ridiculous to compare tonight's run with the ridiculously cold and snowy set up that came about in 87.

The thicknesses could be better but they will probably suffice, especially when you take into account other factors, like how cold the uppers are and the warm SSTs.

Ultimate Seduction

"We're watching history"

"Lying snow on frozen rivers"

MINI ICE AGE ON THE WAY!

TEMPERATURE SET TO PLUMMET TO LOWEST ON RECORD AS RIVERS FREEZE OVER.

4068ac1elhodqr

Pity the thundersnow isn't arriving Sunday (likely Tues-Wed instead?),
would have been ace with Sundays 'Super Blood Red Wolf Moon' bouncing off the whiteout.

sryanbruen

ECM had bitterly cold 850hPa temperatures but similarities to January 1987, I don't see the reflection at all. The low is too far south and pressure is too high.

4068ac1elhodqr

Celine Faithful Worm wrote: »

Pity the thundersnow isn't arriving Sunday (likely Tues-Wed instead?),
would have been ace with Sundays 'Super Blood Red Wolf Moon' bouncing off the whiteout.

Just read the eclipse starts at 3.33am Monday GMT followed by the maximum eclipse at 5.12am, so might still get some red-white scenery via the frost.

q85dw7osi4lebg

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

"We're watching history"

"Lying snow on frozen rivers"

MINI ICE AGE ON THE WAY!

TEMPERATURE SET TO PLUMMET TO LOWEST ON RECORD AS RIVERS FREEZE OVER.

After hours is that way >

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

ECM had bitterly cold uppers but similarities to January 1987, I don't see the reflection at all.

Not in terms of snow potential, but the depth of cold waiting to the north east is kind of similar,but whether we ever tap into that going into February is another matter. I do think there will be a bit of snow around, if tonight's ECM comes to fruition.

Marengo

sryanbruen wrote: »

ECM had bitterly cold uppers but similarities to January 1987, I don't see the reflection at all.

Agree. When I said epic earlier I meant in the context of this year, the possibility for ice days and the possibility for snow on 24th.

1987 brought -16 uppers, and air from deep Siberia at the heart of winter 11-14 Jan. And much lower air pressure.

Now there’s nothing to say if a cold spell does arrive next week it won’t evolve into something better. The ECM was very positive for cold, after the mess of the GFS 12Z.

It’s a bit like sport, you’re only as good as your last match.. we’re only as good as the last model run!

sdanseo

Had to leave the office for a few minutes today and wander around the warehouse looking for oversized freight.
Spent maybe 5 to 10 minutes outside with a 4 layers on and can officially report it's bloody cold.

Slightly more technical, my car is accurate as compared to Dublin airport, and read 0.5C at 8.30 this morning right by the sea.
1.5C a few minutes ago coming home.
Plenty cold for sleet and snow at high levels tonight. Wicklow mountains should be white in the morning.

As posted in the technical thread, this would give a snow-followed-by-cold-rain mess to low levels in the midlands and west as well.

Mortelaro

sryanbruen wrote: »

ECM had bitterly cold 850hPa temperatures but similarities to January 1987, I don't see the reflection at all. The low is too far south and pressure is too high.

Source air and cold is pretty similar,
Jan 1987 wasn't one day though,it was over a week with a feature moving in at the end
The chart I was commenting on was one day in FI
There was one day in FI in 1987 too if we had the facility to chart watch back then (we didnt)
As it's all FI,anything could be the reality in a fortnight,certainly a shallow low would drop that 1019 down to 1010 at quite short notice or something coming in from the Baltics at short notice
All the while feeding in freezing air should you continue feeding it from that direction
1019 mb would allow for showers albeit light
That's the longer version of my opinion on that run,if you see my thinking now?
I was not saying that's what will happen
I'm waiting untill Sunday to confirm in my mind if winter is coming

SleetAndSnow

About 2/3 degrees here in Cork City currently. Feels like winter alright. Fire blaring for the 3rd time this winter only and its beautiful!

YanSno

Marengo wrote: »

Agree. When I said epic earlier I meant in the context of this year, the possibility for ice days and the possibility for snow on 24th.

1987 brought -16 uppers, and air from deep Siberia at the heart of winter 11-14 Jan. And much lower air pressure.

Now there’s nothing to say if a cold spell does arrive next week it won’t evolve into something better. The ECM was very positive for cold, after the mess of the GFS 12Z.

It’s a bit like sport, you’re only as good as your last match.. we’re only as good as the last model run!

Well you will be saying epic until March

Marengo

YanSno wrote: »

Well you will be saying epic until March

Maybe I will

It’s quite easy to criticize with one liners. I’ve outlined in 2 detailed posts why I made the comment.

I remember 1979, 1982, 1987 etc and studied 1933, 1947, 1963 so I don’t appreciate being talked down to.

hoody

Light sleet / snow shower in Loughrea just now.

YanSno

Marengo wrote: »

Maybe I will

It’s quite easy to criticize with one liners. I’ve outlined in 2 detailed posts why I made the comment.

I remember 1979, 1982, 1987 etc and studied 1933, 1947, 1963 so I don’t appreciate being talked down to.

I didn't mean to down talk or anything . Fair enough so what are you basing your research on. By saying epic other people might think and react differently. There nothing out of the ordinary for the next 10 days. Just zonal Atlantic back to business with colder intervals

sryanbruen

YanSno wrote: »

I didn't mean to down talk or anything . Fair enough so what are you basing your research on. By saying epic other people might think and react differently. There nothing out of the ordinary for the next 10 days. Just zonal Atlantic back to business with colder intervals

Whether out of the ordinary or not, it's very different to this Winter so far so there'll be relativity involved.

YanSno

sryanbruen wrote: »

Whether out of the ordinary or not, it's very different to this Winter so far so there'll be relativity involved.

Yes exactly we had dry couple of weeks so now we are going to play catch up with wet and windy weather

Ultimate Seduction

A lot of people use this forum alone for their forecasts. Saying things like lying snow on frozen rivers is ridiculous really. Could easily set panic into farmers an elderly. Or as I implied, a tabloid reporter reads this thread and you'll see the headlines tomorrow. Theres no evidence anywhere for what you suggest, and even if there was, its so far out its to be ignored.

Marengo

YanSno wrote: »

I didn't mean to down talk or anything . Fair enough so what are you basing your research on. By saying epic other people might think and react differently. There nothing out of the ordinary for the next 10 days. Just zonal Atlantic back to business with colder intervals

In the context of a mild 12GFS it promises cold with uppers of -10/-11C. Possible snow next Thursday. Hints of a Scandi High.

I shouldn’t have to explain myself to you, or anyone else, for using the word epic.

Epic for this year. Not 47, 63, 87. But all those years had to start somewhere. 47 had a particularly late start Now would you kindly go away and pick on someone else who uses a word you dislike. I’m not Met Eireann and doubt i’m Influencing thousands like Villain, Sryan, MT, Gaoth Laidir and other excellent forecasters.

Enthusiastic amateurs are allowed comment on a public forum.

Marengo

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

A lot of people use this forum alone for their forecasts. Saying things like lying snow on frozen rivers is ridiculous really. Could easily set panic into farmers an elderly. Or as I implied, a tabloid reporter reads this thread and you'll see the headlines tomorrow. Theres no evidence anywhere for what you suggest, and even if there was, its so far out its to be ignored.

I never mentioned rivers freezing or anything like that.

Mortelaro

Marengo wrote: »

I never mentioned rivers freezing or anything like that.

That was me because the Avoca river in Arklow froze in Jan 87 and Dec 2010 with snow sitting on the ice and fleshed out my point in my last post again
I actually find it strange that such a scenario would be dismissed
All I was saying really is uppers in the source at -20c wouldn't have much bother if a northeasterly was sustained dragging sub -10 uppers into Ireland meaning ice days at this time of the year which would freeze rivers
It wasn't a forecast
Nothing in this thread is a forecast,it's commentary on charts and an explanation when I was prompted
That's all
Others can have different thoughts on what might happen

Marengo

Mortelaro wrote: »

That was me because the Avoca river in Arklow froze in Jan 87 and Dec 2010 with snow sitting on the ice and fleshed out my point in my last post again
I actually find it strange that such a scenario would be dismissed
All I was saying really is uppers in the source at -20c wouldn't have much bother if a northeasterly was sustained dragging sub -10 uppers into Ireland meaning ice days at this time of the year which would freeze rivers
It wasn't a forecast
Nothing in this thread is a forecast,it's commentary on charts and an explanation when I was prompted
That's all
Others can have different thoughts on what might happen

And you’re totally entitled to your opinion and always give your reasoning.

Rebelbrowser

The low level (680m) ski resort I'm going to in Austria on Sat week currently is forecasted to have a day time max that day of -15 falling to -26 at night. Colder at 2000m where we will be skiing presumably. Yikes....

Monkeynut

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

The low level (680m) ski resort I'm going to in Austria on Sat week currently is forecasted to have a day time max that day of -15 falling to -26 at night. Colder at 2000m where we will be skiing presumably. Yikes....

you are mad. i just wouldn't be able to board the plane. fair play to you.

Villain

The pub run deserves a toast

Mortelaro

Villain wrote: »

The pub run deserves a toast

Snow lying on freezing pints out in the smoking area ?

kittyn

Villain wrote: »

The pub run deserves a toast

What a run from the GFS 😱🥶🥶

SleetAndSnow

the uppers just keep getting better and better o.O . This is a totally different run the 12z, so hard to trust!