Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

ninebeanrows

850hPa winds - idea of max potential gusts.

RobertKK

I just enjoy this webcam, it has been snowing for hours...Finland, I have a Finnish friend there, he said they have twice the normal amount...
https://www.datapartner.fi/fi/web-kamera

highdef

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

850hPa winds - idea of max potential gusts.

That's an idea of max potential gusts at approx 1,500m so not really representative of any person living in Ireland.

Having said that, ECM is showing widespread gusts between 100 and 120 km/h in many areas, especially the west and northwest and (quite unusually) across the central swathe of the country.

@Sleety_Rain - Just saw your reference to using the 850hPa gusts as an indication to potential gusts should there be a sting jet scenario in the new thread for this potential event, which is entirely plausible given the current ECMWF chart for the 8th so point taken.

Donegal Storm

Gonzo wrote: »

I think we're all thinking the same way. At this stage I don't care if there's no more frost or snow in the charts till November 2019. It's time to stick a fork in this winter and focus on looking forward to the Spring and Summer.

Definitely the same for me, I find no matter what weather we've been having I get really fed up with winter every year around now, constant darkness, dampness and lack of heat takes its toll eventually. Really looking forward to feeling a bit of heat in the sun again and starting to see convection kicking off over land

Franz Von Peppercorn

sryanbruen wrote: »

Not bad in Dublin 13, good sunny spells. A far cry from yesterday's glorious sights though. It has generally been alright since mid-January here with a dramatic improvement in sunshine from the horrible muck of December into the first half of January.

The first two days of February have already had more than 20% of December's total sunshine at Dublin Airport.

November in Dublin was atrocious though. Worse than 2015 for rain.

sryanbruen

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

November in Dublin was atrocious though. Worse than 2015.

Not part of meteorological Winter which my post was speaking about. I didn't find November as bad as some say as I enjoyed some very wet days it had (like the 9th) and listening to the winds of dirty Diana near the end of the month. I know, unpopular opinion. Maybe in future when I have to commute often, I'll have a different thought on a month like November 2018.

EDIT: The easterly though during November was atrocious - I do agree there.

Gonzo

Franz Von Peppercorn wrote: »

November in Dublin was atrocious though. Worse than 2015 for rain.

November 2018 was brutal here in South Meath, the worst part was that easterly where we had almost 50 continuous hours of cold rain. It rained basically every day throughout that month and December wasn't much better untill Christmas week where it dryed out a bit.

Gonzo

looking at the temperatures on Meteociel, picks up the Atlantic making inroads into western Europe perfectly. Ireland, UK, much of France and Spain are yellow/green colours with temperatures close to 10C or above.

Also interesting is the warmth over southern and eastern United States, only a few days ago some of those areas had temperatures close to -30C, today they are hitting 20C, a rise of almost 50C over a matter of days in some areas.

sryanbruen

Gonzo wrote: »

looking at the temperatures on Meteociel, picks up the Atlantic making inroads into western Europe perfectly. Ireland, UK, much of France and Spain are yellow/green colours with temperatures close to 10C or above.

Also interesting is the warmth over southern and eastern United States, only a few days ago some of those areas had temperatures close to -30C, today they are hitting 20C, a rise of almost 50C over a matter of days in some areas.

That's the kind of temperature difference they would have had last year when we were having the Beast from the East but the other way round. They were having remarkably high temperatures for late February standard whilst we were under bitterly cold easterly winds then when it became gradually milder here and unsettled, the high retrogressed to North America forming a western based negative NAO and bringing heavy snowfalls (including a couple of nor'easters) to them. In fact, it was the coldest April on record in the Mid-West after.

Similarly in February 1991 during that beasterly, the eastern seaboard had record breaking heat or at least according to Ian McCaskill.

Gonzo

sryanbruen wrote: »

I still remember coming home from school and watching that forecast live after the 6pm news on BBC1. Snow was already falling at that stage, the next morning school was cancelled for more than a week.

Meteorite58

highdef wrote: »

That's an idea of max potential gusts at approx 1,500m so not really representative of any person living in Ireland.

Having said that, ECM is showing widespread gusts between 100 and 120 km/h in many areas, especially the west and northwest and (quite unusually) across the central swathe of the country.

@Sleety_Rain - Just saw your reference to using the 850hPa gusts as an indication to potential gusts should there be a sting jet scenario in the new thread for this potential event, which is entirely plausible given the current ECMWF chart for the 8th so point taken.

I believe they are actually average wind speeds at 850 hPa, approx 1,500m

Rebelbrowser

Gonzo wrote: »

I still remember coming home from school and watching that forecast live after the 6pm news on BBC1. Snow was already falling at that stage, the next morning school was cancelled for more than a week.

Yup. Remember it snowed the following morning in Cork and we got sent home from school. They used to do a long forecast on the radio 1 at 12.55 on a Sunday afternoon and I remember the previous Sunday when they announced that upcoming spell I was ridiculously excited. The Jan 87 easterly was still fresh in the memory back then. Happy memories.

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

Similarly in February 1991 during that beasterly, the eastern seaboard had record breaking heat or at least according to Ian McCaskill.

Good Old Ian. What an epic forecast. I would be happy if we got event like Feburary 1991 to finish off this winter. I guess that is extremely unlikely at this stage. Are you of the same view as Yansnow that March will be a below average month temperature wise?

Oscar Bravo

Some heavy showers with lightning possible along the west coast around dawn.Knock TAF gives a small chance of thunderstorms between 7am-9am. Perhaps Grace will see some lightning.

Donegal Storm

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Some heavy showers with lightning possible along the west coast around dawn.Knock TAF gives a small chance of thunderstorms between 7am-9am. Perhaps Grace will see some lightning.

Just thinking it's been yet another extremely un-thundery winter, following on from a near thunder free 2018 (apart from that one night in May the the SE'ern third of the country experienced). A far cry from the big thundery hail showers we used to get coming in off the Atlantic most winters in the 2000's

May 2017 is still the last time I've heard a rumble of thunder, surely we're due a decent spell at some stage..:rolleyes:

gozunda

Graces7 wrote: »

Indeed yes! Thank you!

Unfortunately also huge storm potential coming straight at the West coast this week ...

Graces7

Oscar Bravo wrote: »

Some heavy showers with lightning possible along the west coast around dawn.Knock TAF gives a small chance of thunderstorms between 7am-9am. Perhaps Grace will see some lightning.

lol,, you keep.. stealing my thunder Came back to say I heard thunder... Not noticed lightning but I am abed and no sky view

I have officially canceled my early walk... sheeting down and intermittent rumbles.... shudders!

west mayo offshore flood plain

Graces7

gozunda wrote: »

Unfortunately also huge storm potential coming straight at the West coast this week ...

yep. Hoping a clear spell Thursday so my fortnightly shopping delivery can get here

Villain

Some snow tonight on higher ground

Little snowy old me

That wind is bitter today.

Gonzo

weekend looks quite chilly but should be plenty of sunshine between any showers.

Rock Lesnar

Great day today, sunny, in a strong drying breeze

squarecircles

A ferocious prolonged and intense hail shower this morning,with frequent flashes of lightning passed directly over head,west mayo.


wild morning.

lolie

Villain wrote: »

Some snow tonight on higher ground

Yeah plenty of the models are showing rain turning wintry as it clears east tonight.
Currently 8c here but feels colder than that.

SeaBreezes

Ninja snow!!!

ninebeanrows

What is the EC upto now :P

Oscar Bravo

1835 met update

Heavy rain will extend nationwide this evening and early tonight, turning to sleet or snow in places, especially in Connacht and west Ulster. The rain will clear eastwards into the Irish Sea later in the night with clear spells and scattered showers following. Minimum temperatures of 0 to +3 degrees with strong west to northwest winds developing in southern and eastern coastal districts for a time.

Villain

The end of the ECMWF 12z is like Kermit hacked the model and is trying to Hotwire the rollercoaster

SleetAndSnow

Pelting down in cork city. Big, heavy drops of rain.

Marengo

Sometimes lightning strikes twice..

After January 2010 i didn't think i'd see a comparable cold spell in a few years, we had one in less than 11 mts!!

So here's to another little Beast!:D