Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

derekon

compsys wrote: »

That 2010 forecast was almost a decade ago :pac:

I don't think giveitholly was being mean or attacking MT - just highlighting that long-range forecasts are unpredictable. Everyone IMO opinion - including the mighty MT - gets them wrong as often as they get them right.

Yes, just over 8 years ago.



But the heatwave of summer 2018, just 7 months ago - was correctly called by MT Cranium. Hands down the best forecaster on both boards.ie and UK Netweather (where for some reason, he is just seen , well to me anyway, as another poster , which is their loss!)


D

derekon

giveitholly wrote: »

Apologise for what,Am I not allowed have an opinion? I think Mt is great and read his forecast every day but that doesn't say he is always right,all this winter we are hearing of this deep cold coming but its always being pushed back,I understand how hard difficult it is to give long term forecasts but derekon I won't be apologising because I have nothing to apologise for

And that is entirely your decision!


D

Gonzo

giveitholly wrote: »

I'm afraid he has been doing that the whole winter,everything should be taken with a pinch of salt

Nobody has been able to successfully predict this winter for our part of the world. It has been a forecasting nightmare.

The long range forecasts kept showing the perfect winter setup for our part of the world and were very much in agreement with prolonged blocking and cold for second half of January and all of February into March.

All the building blocks looked like they were going to be in place for us including a proper SSW event. The UKMO also predicted a colder than average winter based on the data back in November and December.

The SSW event happened and it was a good one, but sadly it failed to deliver for our corner of Europe, Ireland more than any other country getting a particularly mild and Atlantic dominated first 2 months of winter.

Too many building blocks didn't fall into the right place and this has kept the Atlantic strong for Ireland since December 1st, it has refused to give up the fight and the fight is still going on into February.

The charts really wanted to bring cold, easterly's and blocking to us, but because of the Atlantic refusing to let go, these wonderfull charts kept delaying and nothing good was showing up on the short term models, it was always in the long range.

We came close to a major easterly about 2 to 3 weeks ago, and this was very swiftly blocked off once again by the power of the Atlantic.

Some of the long range charts are still showing up blocked scenarios after next week, but at this stage you have to really question them.

I believe every forecaster regardless of skill level has tried their best this winter to deliver us accurate forecasts and predictions, all the best data and super computers just could not model what really happened so far this winter.

Calibos

We just need to accept that most years we are going to be the most Northerly Snow free place on the entire planet thanks to sitting in the North Atlantic and being the first port of call for the gulfstream and the jetstream.

The most painful example being February 2012 when the most westerly extent of the snow that year was the coast of Wales.

derekon

Calibos wrote: »

We just need to accept that most years we are going to be the most Northerly Snow free place on the entire planet thanks to sitting in the North Atlantic and being the first port of call for the gulfstream and the jetstream.

The most painful example being February 2012 when the most westerly extent of the snow that year was the coast of Wales.

Agreed, it is what it is. Ireland is the worst place in Western Europe for snow. All the wishing and hopecasting in the world won't change that fact.....

D

sryanbruen

I’d rate January 2019 slightly below average at 4/10 personally. It was no December 2018 but no December 2010 either. The first half brought its mark this low for me. The second half was generally fine and seasonable.

Gonzo

some of the long range models are now pointing at a milder than average February, with the last 3 weeks of February looking mild.

Of course those predictions could be quite wrong, they have been wrong for most of January and were painting a very different picture for February up until this week. Will be interesting to see will they be wrong again.

Winter so far I would rate:

December - 2/10
January - 3/10

Billcarson

Personally I think 4/10 is slightly generous . I'd go for 3/10 for Jan for my location anyway . 1/10 For Dec as it was such a bad month regards anything wintry , right up there with dec 2015 on that front. 4/20 so far for winter 2018/19 for me.

The Mig

Fingers crossed for another Beast from the East this spring!

derekon

Gonzo wrote: »

some of the long range models are now pointing at a milder than average February, with the last 3 weeks of February looking mild.

Of course those predictions could be quite wrong, they have been wrong for most of January and were painting a very different picture for February up until this week. Will be interesting to see will they be wrong again.

Winter so far I would rate:

December - 2/10
January - 3/10

My ratings for the winter so far

December - 0/10 (temperatures in the teens was the icing on the cake)

January - 0/10 (the models constantly leading us up the garden path was a particular highlight)

Personally I'd take a very mild February, which would lead is nicely into Spring 2019.....this winter has just been one disappointment after another.

D

sideswipe

The Mig wrote: »

Fingers crossed for another Beast from the East this spring!

Only if we can get a summer like last summer as a chaser!

The Mig

sideswipe wrote: »

Only if we can get a summer like last summer as a chaser!

That's a deal!

Rock Lesnar

Class day here in meath, clear blue sky and sun shining since the start of the day, looking like a good hard frost tonight

As for the winter in general, yeah its been fairly bland and not very exciting, but its been largely dry for me anyway, and i prefer that to constant rain, muck and floods

JCX BXC

Fairly sh*te January if I'm honest, at least there was some interest at the end.

Gonzo

Rock Lesnar wrote: »

Class day here in meath, clear blue sky and sun shining since the start of the day, looking like a good hard frost tonight

Great day here too, blue sky all day, patches of graupel in the shade,side roads are a bit dangerous tho.

Today is probably only 1 of 3 or 4 nice days we've had the whole winter.

Artane2002

I'd say southeast England had a snowier winter than the rest of England. The easterly in November brought them snow, they got snow from the last northwesterly and they had snow yesterday and today. Feels odd to think that London had more snow this year than Dublin.

pistolpetes11

2018/2019 Winter 😂😂😂

Gonzo

tomorrow should be another fine, sunny, frosty and crisp day. Hard frost tonight and more frost tomorrow night. Normal service resumes from Sunday.

That would make these first 2 days of February, probably the highlight of the winter so far.

Gonzo

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

2018/2019 Winter 😂😂😂

looks very similar to the dusting I got at Dunshaughlin, the only lying snow of this winter so far.

Billcarson

Gonzo wrote: »

tomorrow should be another fine, sunny, frosty and crisp day. Hard frost tonight and more frost tomorrow night. Normal service resumes from Sunday.

That would make these first 2 days of February, probably the highlight of the winter so far.

This is our Winter lol. Waited months for it. Lol

SleetAndSnow

Car reading 2 degrees here in Cork City so already a lot colder then yesterday. Just feels bitter. Love it.

Mortelaro

https://www.instagram.com/p/BtWBkYxHCtA/?utm_source=ig_share_sheet&igshid=htxyzfzos8zl

m17

Roscommon 01/02/19 17.00 temperature 3°C

bazlers

Still time lads and lassies for a big event. 24/25th Feb. 1947 was one of the greatest snowfalls to ever hit the country (not to mention last year).
A few shifts here and there in the models and a good helping of luck and you never know...all of the disappointment would soon be forgotten.

m17

Tuam Co galway 01/02/19 18.15 temperature 0°C

Loughc

The Mig wrote: »

Fingers crossed for another Beast from the East this spring!

Better chance of winning the euromillions tonight.

Gonzo

bazlers wrote: »

Still time lads and lassies for a big event. 24/25th Feb. 1947 was one of the greatest snowfalls to ever hit the country (not to mention last year).
A few shifts here and there in the models and a good helping of luck and you never know...all of the disappointment would soon be forgotten.

I think we're going to need some major shifts in the models, the latest GFS run in particular is not what we want to see in February.

seamusk84

Still don’t get why everyone loves the snow and cold. As a motorcyclist and someone who also goes running every day, even this cold is a nightmare...The snow is just a disaster for me.

Can’t wait for the mild weather to resume on Monday!

Rock Lesnar

The Mig wrote: »

Fingers crossed for another Beast from the East this spring!

More like the mess from the west

YanSno

Very unsettle week coming up as i mentioned a while ago we had a very dry end of December and start of January, we are going to play catch up with rainfall. LP will keep barrelling through until around the middle of February where we might have a dry settled period after that it's back to Zonal. Teleconnections not showing any signs of anything cold in the horizon