Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

fryup

at last some decent prolonged cold weather will it be cold enough to kill the parasites in the ground??

derekon

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Hi Sryan, Very early I know, but all this talk of cold and snow has me depressed. When do you think you'll compose a summer 2019 prediction?

Sacrilegious!!!! That's like asking for a winter prediction in the middle of a warm July!!!!!!

D

Ultimate Seduction

derekon wrote: »

Sacrilegious!!!! That's like asking for a winter prediction in the middle of a warm July!!!!!!

D

Ah its not! Were at the back end of winter now. This thread was started in August

sryanbruen

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Hi Sryan, Very early I know, but all this talk of cold and snow has me depressed. When do you think you'll compose a summer 2019 prediction?

My Summer 2019 forecast will be released on Tuesday, May 28th but hopefully release lots of updates before then as I normally do.

I am hoping to have some analogues/teleconnection forecasts or signals to post in the next month or two provided the US government doesn't shutdown again and put a detriment into my whole seasonal forecast updates like the month long one that has just ended thus why you've not seen any Spring updates from me.

Summer analogues won't be starting 'til a good while (and if the US government shuts down again then may be even longer). Spring analogues however I'm hoping to start very soon now that I can reanalyse them.

derekon wrote: »

Sacrilegious!!!! That's like asking for a winter prediction in the middle of a warm July!!!!!!

D

In fairness, everybody has their own preferences. Ultimate Seduction prefers Summer over Winter and he's looking forward to what Summer 2019 could hold for Ireland, following what 2018 offered. There's nothing wrong with that.

You could say the same about people preferring Winter over Summer and looking ahead to Winter in the middle of the Summer season. There's already people looking forward to Winter 2019-20 with Winter 2018-19 not even over yet, Spring 2019, Summer 2019 and Autumn 2019 all around the corner before then.

Snow Garden

There better be some snow in Summer too!! :mad:

Dickie10

Can anyine remember the last early spring? like having warmish weather say 13-16 degrees in february and march? long time since we had 16-18 degree paddys day

Calibos

Got sunburnt cutting the hedge in March 2012

coillsaille

Calibos wrote: »

Got sunburnt cutting the hedge in March 2012

I was building my house at the time. I remember during March the block layers were stripped to the waist and got badly burnt.

Dakotabigone

coillsaille wrote: »

I was building my house at the time. I remember during March the block layers were stripped to the waist and got badly burnt.

From frostbit?

Oscar Bravo

A mix of sleet/snow showers here in Castlebar with dazzling sunshine in between.

MJohnston

Why do people always associate sunburn with temperature? They've basically nothing to do with each other, other than you probably have more skin exposed when it's warm.

Dickie10

so its probably 2012? surely due another mild spring so, id take even muggy damp weather if it meant mildness and growth shooting out

nacho libre

I can only conclude Glosea 5 see the effects of the SSW finally having an impact on the tropopshere around mid Februray, but according to kermit's friend, Gaoth, with the upper strat' back to normal, that would not be possible.
Sryan what is your take on the UKMO long range update? Do you think it will suddenly change its long range outlook to back the ECM46?

munsterlegend

nacho libre wrote: »

I can only conclude Glosea 5 see the effects of the SSW finally having an impact on the tropopshere around mid Februray, but according to kermit's friend, Gaoth, with the upper strat' back to normal, that would not be possible.
Sryan what is your take on the UKMO long range update? Do you think it will suddenly change its long range outlook to back the ECM46?

Has it not changed today to a less cold version??

nacho libre

munsterlegend wrote: »

Has it not changed today to a less cold version??

oh has it? I did not see this update. Ah You are right.


UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February with the potential for some periods where winds are coming from the east. In the setup the weather is likely to be mixed with spells of showery rain, sleet and some snow most likely across the south and east, with northern and western parts perhaps more likely to be drier. Despite the prevalence of mainly cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible.

Yes that seems like a downgrade to me for most regions, bar the south east of England.

sryanbruen

Well no snow here but no complaints either as the day has been beautifully sunny (the next best thing) for the most part bar the terrible wet morning. Here's an evening shot I took in Clontarf.

Franz Von Peppercorn

Calibos wrote: »

Got sunburnt cutting the hedge in March 2012

That was prob the hottest day of that miserable year.

Franz Von Peppercorn

nacho libre wrote: »

oh has it? I did not see this update. Ah You are right.


UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February with the potential for some periods where winds are coming from the east. In the setup the weather is likely to be mixed with spells of showery rain, sleet and some snow most likely across the south and east, with northern and western parts perhaps more likely to be drier. Despite the prevalence of mainly cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible.

Yes that seems like a downgrade to me for most regions, bar the south east of England.

That’s basically what they’ve been doing all winter. Downgrading to that paragraph as they got closer.

Marengo

nacho libre wrote: »

oh has it? I did not see this update. Ah You are right.


UK Outlook for Wednesday 13 Feb 2019 to Wednesday 27 Feb 2019:

Generally cold conditions are often likely to dominate the weather through mid to late February with the potential for some periods where winds are coming from the east. In the setup the weather is likely to be mixed with spells of showery rain, sleet and some snow most likely across the south and east, with northern and western parts perhaps more likely to be drier. Despite the prevalence of mainly cold weather, occasional milder interludes remain possible.

Yes that seems like a downgrade to me for most regions, bar the south east of England.

That's another cover your ar*e post from Met UK. Put a chance of everything in and see what transpires. Their medium term LRFs have been woeful this year. Any snow coming seems to be from the west, not due to blocking.

UKMO like Brexit etc..how the mighty have fallen:)

nacho libre

Marengo wrote: »

That's another cover your ar*e post from Met UK. Put a chance of everything in and see what transpires. Their medium term LRFs have been woeful this year. Any snow coming seems to be from the west, not due to blocking.

UKMO like Brexit etc..how the mighty have fallen:)

I think you might be right about covering themselves, they will probably downgrade it further in the coming days. I think yan sno called it well a few weeks ago with his outlook of cold zonal, with no real blocking taking hold

Gonzo

It does look like next week may see a return to mild/normal temperatures for the time of year. However, there are signals that things may cool down for the second half of February.

The Long Range Models have been poor since December. We still have no blocking and no real depth of cold to tap into. The Atlantic hasn't really stopped since the 1st of November. This is not what the Long Term Models were forecasting in the run up to Christmas and beyond.

Some of the long term models want to keep us in a mild westerly flow from next week while others want to have decent blocking, opening up the gates to Siberia. It's almost a 50/50 split in what the models want with the mild vs cold.

The nightmare model watching continues, but still time to get a decent easterly going. It's not too late yet.

nacho libre

Gonzo wrote: »

It does look like next week may see a return to mild/normal temperatures for the time of year. However, there are signals that things may cool down for the second half of February.

The Long Range Models have been poor since December. We still have no blocking and no real depth of cold to tap into. The Atlantic hasn't really stopped since the 1st of November. This is not what the Long Term Models were forecasting in the run up to Christmas and beyond.

Some of the long term models want to keep us in a mild westerly flow from next week while others want to have decent blocking, opening up the gates to Siberia. It's almost a 50/50 split in what the models want with the mild vs cold.

The nightmare model watching continues, but still time to get a decent easterly going. It's not too late yet.

I would love to be proven wrong come mid February, but
I just don't see it happening, Gonzo, unless that lobe of polar vortex is somehow dislodged from Canada. I think the time for the SSW to have worked in our favour has been and gone. I am just going to try and make the most of what snow we get this week. I suppose we can't have a beast from the east every year.

Ultimate Seduction

Dickie10 wrote: »

Can anyine remember the last early spring? like having warmish weather say 13-16 degrees in february and march? long time since we had 16-18 degree paddys day

Late March 2015 had a few scorchers.

m17

Annagh Hill co galway 29/01/19 19.33 temperature -1°C

FrDougalMcguire

Charlestown Co. Mayo about an hour ago

Artane2002

Tomorrow might be one of those mornings where literally everything is white with frost. It's already very frosty/icy here in Dublin 5. Haven't had that since December 2017.

Birdnuts

Had a strange experience on the roads in Mayo tonight. Heavy sticking snow between Claremorris and Castlebar around 8pm. Then a few miles out from the latter on the N84 towards Balintubber, the snow vanished!! Must be something to do with the Mtns to the NW

FrDougalMcguire

Charlestown Mayo

Oscar Bravo

Birdnuts wrote: »

Had a strange experience on the roads in Mayo tonight. Heavy sticking snow between Claremorris and Castlebar around 8pm. Then a few miles out from the latter on the N84 towards Balintubber, the snow vanished!! Must be something to do with the Mtns to the NW

I know the spot and the exact same thing happens in summer, say you get a damp drizzly day in Castlebar, go out there and the cloud base is higher with brighter spells coming through. The Partry Mountains are the ones.

highdef

Birdnuts wrote: »

Had a strange experience on the roads in Mayo tonight. Heavy sticking snow between Claremorris and Castlebar around 8pm. Then a few miles out from the latter on the N84 towards Balintubber, the snow vanished!! Must be something to do with the Mtns to the NW

Probably because the N84 is that bit closer to the sea and therefore closer to the higher DPs and warmer temperatures the nearer you get to the Atlantic with the onshore westerly winds.

Altitude between both roads is similar enough.