Winter 2018/2019 - General Discussion

squarecircles

sparrowcar wrote: »

Population mass innit...

Equally the posts like yours that east coasters have to apologise for become draining.

the difference being when there is the potential for snowfall on the east coast you wont find posters from the west constantly trying to[ Mod Snip] over the charts,


its a joke.


its the same thing evey year.

Meteorite58

Mod Note: You have made your point squarecircles , time to move on now and back on topic.

pad199207

pad199207 wrote: »

Up in the Wicklow mountains today

I can't decipher this at all. What's going on in this photo?

munsterlegend

Dónal wrote: »

I can't decipher this at all. What's going on in this photo?

Frozen water.

Snow Garden

Wow finally...The RTE 6 weather looks very cold for the week.
Hopefully we'll get some sharp frosts and a decent amount of snow. Fingers crossed.

JJayoo

Snow Garden wrote: »

Wow finally...The RTE 6 weather looks very cold for the week.
Hopefully we'll get some sharp frosts and a decent amount of snow. Fingers crossed.

Noooooooooooooooooooooooooo

Farmer2017

I hope there is no snow. For the simple reason the poor homeless have to sleep in it and the wildlife and baby lambs will suffer. Not everyone has the comfort of a warm house.

Graces7

Farmer2017 wrote: »

I hope there is no snow. For the simple reason the poor homeless have to sleep in it and the wildlife and baby lambs will suffer. Not everyone has the comfort of a warm house.

agree totally but surely there will be provision made for the rough sleepers? There usually is.

and all we can do now is make provision; ask local councils?

If snow comes, it comes

ZX7R

Some heavy fog about this morning and some freezing fog also, sticking to the visor of my helmet on the way home from work this morning

no.8

Farmer2017 wrote: »

I hope there is no snow. For the simple reason the poor homeless have to sleep in it and the wildlife and baby lambs will suffer. Not everyone has the comfort of a warm house.

While i understand your concern for the homeless, I think we need not be exaggerating the effect on wildlife with this (possible) event. This is what animals in the wild have evolved to deal with, and have done for thousands of generations up to today. Protect and in some cases, feed yes, but don't doubt their toughness.

Different story if we were looking at -20C or thereabouts.

sideswipe

Farmer2017 wrote: »

I hope there is no snow. For the simple reason the poor homeless have to sleep in it and the wildlife and baby lambs will suffer. Not everyone has the comfort of a warm house.

I'm going to assume from your user name that you started farming in 2017?
Not many farmers I know use the phrase 'baby lambs':pac:

We had snow in March last year, the later we have it the shorter it'll stick around for as the sun gains power and the day length increases. I'd imaging the lambing season was badly effected last year.

Ultimate Seduction

sideswipe wrote: »

I'm going to assume from your user name that you started farming in 2017?
Not many farmers I know use the phrase 'baby lambs':pac:

Didn't think "baby lambs" or born till Spring anyway ?

jay28

Ultimate Seduction wrote: »

Didn't think "baby lambs" or born till Spring anyway ?

Some are born end of December/beginning of January

sryanbruen

Very nice day so far in Dublin.

https://twitter.com/snowbiewx/status/1089879374189527040?s=21

Graces7

Lovely afternoon over here now; as long as you keep out of the wind that has ice in its tail ... bright sun and ocean and mountains a sheer glory
west mayo offshore

Buffalobill29

Heavy hail shower and 5° here at the moment in the Midlands. The weather is surely getting colder.

Tigerandahalf

Lovely blue sky day in the west. Hopefully a bit more on the way.

Buffalobill29

https://imageshack.com/i/pmGoM5HUj][IMJ]https://imagizer.imageshack.com/v2/150x100q90/922/GoM5HU.jpg

sryanbruen

Showing just for fun and speculation.

ECM 12z showed us going milder next week but it shows important developments too for further down the line thereafter (I emphasise though that is just speculation - can't stress enough especially with the model volatility this Winter).

Heights are rising over Scandinavia and trying to link back to a Siberian High (the latter anticyclone is evident across multiple models, not just the ECM) and the Canadian vortex is being removed from the pattern.

If the high to the south of us were to retrogress westwards and link up with a ridge over Canada, the low to the north of us would likely dive southwards into Europe. If the high were to push eastwards and go up to Scandinavia, the low would either dive south or stall there and be blocked off by the blocking over Scandinavia.

With a chart like this, one must use a bit of imagination to think of where the pattern can go at a latter period.



Here's how Feb/Mar 2018 evolved for comparison:



P.S. No, I'm not suggesting a "Beast from the East" at all. I don't think we'll be seeing one of those for a long time.

derekon

sryanbruen wrote: »

Showing just for fun and speculation.

ECM 12z showed us going milder next week but it shows important developments too for further down the line thereafter (I emphasise though that is just speculation - can't stress enough especially with the model volatility this Winter).

Heights are rising over Scandinavia and trying to link back to a Siberian High (the latter anticyclone is evident across multiple models, not just the ECM) and the Canadian vortex is being removed from the pattern.

If the high to the south of us were to retrogress westwards and link up with a ridge over Canada, the low to the north of us would likely dive southwards into Europe. If the high were to push eastwards and go up to Scandinavia, the low would either dive south or stall there and be blocked off by the blocking over Scandinavia.

With a chart like this, one must use a bit of imagination to think of where the pattern can go at a latter period.

.

Mild south westerlies?

D

munsterlegend

derekon wrote: »

.

Mild south westerlies?

D

Hardly very imaginative our normal weather not that I have a clue!

sryanbruen

derekon wrote: »

.

Mild south westerlies?

D

Please read my full post.

I have added daily Feb/Mar 2018 500mb height reanalysis charts to show you how things can evolve and the disclaimer too that I'm not saying a Beast from the East event would be on the way in case anyone would make assumptions!

Two things I notice before some cold spells is either a dry, frosty week or very mild conditions. Rarely do I see a pattern going from very wet to very cold (1978 being an exception).

munsterlegend

sryanbruen wrote: »

Please read my full post.

I have added daily Feb/Mar 2018 500mb height reanalysis charts to show you how things can evolve.

Two things I notice before some cold spells is either a dry, frosty week or very mild conditions. Rarely do I see a pattern going from very wet to very cold (1978 being an exception).

The met office uk have been bullish about a very cold February so they must be thinking something similar.

derekon

munsterlegend wrote: »

Hardly very imaginative our normal weather not that I have a clue!

Well given the winter we've had so far...........

D

derekon

sryanbruen wrote: »

Please read my full post.

I have added daily Feb/Mar 2018 500mb height reanalysis charts to show you how things can evolve and the disclaimer too that I'm not saying a Beast from the East event would be on the way in case anyone would make assumptions!

Two things I notice before some cold spells is either a dry, frosty week or very mild conditions. Rarely do I see a pattern going from very wet to very cold (1978 being an exception).

Oh you divil! And just when I'd written the Irish winter off!!!!

D

ZX7R

munsterlegend wrote: »

The met office uk have been bullish about a very cold February so they must be thinking something similar.

They were also bullish about a cold December and January also

derekon

ZX7R wrote: »

They were also bullish about a cold December and January also

I'm hearing they are also quite bullish about a very cold March too

D

typhoony

is there going to be a snow reports thread?

sryanbruen

typhoony wrote: »

is there going to be a snow reports thread?

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057949919&page=32

Ultimate Seduction

Hi Sryan, Very early I know, but all this talk of cold and snow has me depressed. When do you think you'll compose a summer 2019 prediction?