Galway Festival 2018

BumperD

Good god.

gazza1

Mine Now 7.55 12/1 ew

Makes chase h'cap debut off a mark of 125 and the jockey takes a further 5lbs off.
Has a hurdle rating of 143 so is thrown in if he can bring his hurdle form to the fore.
Ground not a problem with all wins coming on either yielding soft or heavy

5.45 KUDBEGOOD 7/1 ew

Another h'cap debutant was withdrawn on monday cos of the ground as he's been waiting for softer ground.
2nd over 7f lto to Rock Sound (Rated 78) beaten 3/4L so a mark of 68 looks very fair.
Step up to a mile should suit based on last run and not badly drawn

GL

tryfix

kiers47 wrote: »

In fairness lads backing favorites just because they are the favorite are going to lose money forever and always.
If Gordon/Willie weren't sending numerous entries to these races they would be horrendous affairs and similar to the ****e you see at a mid week meeting in the UK.

That's all true, but it makes successful betting in those kinds of races pretty damn impossible from a form POV. If a race is allowed to be a lottery then it's something a punter should avoid unless they have a way of not losing most of the time on those races.

Looking at the Galway Plate yesterday all I could think of was how Michael O Leary must be spending an absolute fortune while he's making a pig's ear of Irish NH racing.

Computer Science Student

Have a mighty tip for tomorrow lads PM me if interested

donaldtramp

Does anyone know where I can buy a racehorse?

jobeenfitz

donaldtramp wrote: »

Does anyone know where I can buy a racehorse?

Ballinasloe, if ya can wait til October?

kiers47

tryfix wrote: »

That's all true, but it makes successful betting in those kinds of races pretty damn impossible from a form POV. If a race is allowed to be a lottery then it's something a punter should avoid unless they have a way of not losing most of the time on those races.

Looking at the Galway Plate yesterday all I could think of was how Michael O Leary must be spending an absolute fortune while he's making a pig's ear of Irish NH racing.

Ya they can be a lottery but the average punter it seems believes you have to have a bet in every race. Then complains that they can't win because Willie is winning with outsiders.

As far as I can see if the people complaining stopped betting on every race then they may have a chance.

tryfix

kiers47 wrote: »

Ya they can be a lottery but the average punter it seems believes you have to have a bet in every race. Then complains that they can't win because Willie is winning with outsiders.

As far as I can see if the people complaining stopped betting on every race then they may have a chance.

I don't follow everyday jumps racing so I only notice the problem of multiple stable/owner entries in the big Irish NH races, particularly the big money handicaps like the Irish Grand National which are the types of races that should be showcasing NH racing in a way that would make coming racing attractive to a new generation of racegoers.

Having to explain to a new racegoer that the favourite will most likely be beaten by one of six stablemates carrying the same colours that no one could make a case for on the formbook is going to make the new racegoer think that Irish racing is too dodgy to touch.

The same goes for the O'Brien/Coolmore horses on the flat but at least the Coolmore owned horses tend to run in a variety of colours so that punters don't have to be sifting through 6 runners in identical silks looking for the particular slightly different coloured hat that their punting choice is running in. It's a big turn off looking through a big field of runners for your coloured hat as you watch a host of identical colours being carried by runners that are falling, out the back or somewhere near the pace.

There should be a clampdown on the multiples of same coloured silks an owner can run in a race. It's almost as bad in England where the Godolphin blue silks are carried by 4 or more owners in some races where punters are squinting to figure out which runner is which.


Also on the flat, It's an utter disgrace that O'Brien is allowed to train his multiple runners in races where punters have no clue which of his are out for a gallop and which ones are out to win. The rules of racing state that all runners must be trying, the racing authorities are a bad joke.

Mostly Harmless

Apart from the awkwardness of having loads of the same silks or the Coolmore pacemaker/team tactics on flat, I don't really see the issue with having multiple horses running for the same connections in the same race - I don't think it makes the race any more or less of a lottery, a 20+ runner handicap hurdle run round a sharp track on soft ground will not see the FAV winning 100% of the time regardless of how many runners WPM has - if you ran yesterdays race a 100 times how many times would Sharjah win it?

Are we genuinely saying that when Wings Of Eagles won the Derby, the other Coolmore horses were out for a gallop?

NaiveMelodies

"Rubys a Gangster because he didn't think the winner of the Galway Hurdle had a chance(this opinion cost him 20k)"
"Elliotts a cheat because high class Clarcam wins a ****e Galway Plate AT 33/1."

It's comments like these by bookie dwellers and some actual racing fans that go a long way to developing this kind of notion that when a trainer/owner has multiple runners, one of those runners is fixed to win.
It's not that hard to explain that this isn't the case to new fans and racegoers.

Of course it isn't ideal, like in any sport, that a select number of owners/trainers have somewhat of a monopoly.
Despite this monopoly, Horse Racing does produce far more fairytale underdog stories than most other sports.

NaiveMelodies

Thunder and Roses my belated bet of the week in the 7.55.
25s too big.

kiers47

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Apart from the awkwardness of having loads of the same silks or the Coolmore pacemaker/team tactics on flat, I don't really see the issue with having multiple horses running for the same connections in the same race - I don't think it makes the race any more or less of a lottery, a 20+ runner handicap hurdle run round a sharp track on soft ground will not see the FAV winning 100% of the time regardless of how many runners WPM has - if you ran yesterdays race a 100 times how many times would Sharjah win it?

Are we genuinely saying that when Wings Of Eagles won the Derby, the other Coolmore horses were out for a gallop?

Fair points.
The fav should never be winning 100% of the time. This in my eyes is peoples main downfall. Everything gets beat and everything should have a cut off. People sticking a load of odds on shots into an acca and cribbing that a 1/4 shot gets beat by his stablemate as if it was as certain to happen as the sun rising.

Like Tryfix i dont tend to follow a whole pile of NH meetings as im more a flat man.
I dont see the problem running a number of horses in a race once they are all going to be running on merits. With the odd exception of some of the top flat group 1's a pacemaker setting a decent but not absurd pace is almost always going to make the race a more fair test for the best horses. How many Group 1s have we seen down the years where they hack round and sprint from the 2f pole. Farcical stuff.

In them top NH h/c's gordon and willies are all there trying to win. There is no ifs or buts about it. Aidan i suppose can leave a bit of work to do on his 2yo's first time out but i mean is anyone backing them at short prices on racecourse debut? Maybe, but Jesus you'd want your head examined if you are.

Francie Barrett

Best bet of the day, if not week has to be Chieftain's Choice in the 4:20 at Bangor. This one always sticks in my head from when I saw it run back in November 2016 when it was a disgraceful non-trier. After a short holiday, it then came back to win a few months later off a mark of 114. A few runs later it now has a 124 rating over fences and is as low as 110 over hurdles after it made a seasonal re-appearance and brushed the cobwebs off. Just been a bit nibbled at in the betting makes me think that this could be ready to put in a big performance today. 8/1 best price now, decent win bet for me.

Francie Barrett

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

It's comments like these by bookie dwellers and some actual racing fans that go a long way to developing this kind of notion that when a trainer/owner has multiple runners, one of those runners is fixed to win.

You really are a sh1t stirrer, aren't you? No one said anything about fixing, so don't put words into my mouth.

Bangor Billy

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Best bet of the day, if not week has to be Chieftain's Choice in the 4:20 at Bangor. This one always sticks in my head from when I saw it run back in November 2016 when it was a disgraceful non-trier. After a short holiday, it then came back to win a few months later off a mark of 114. A few runs later it now has a 124 rating over fences and is as low as 110 over hurdles after it made a seasonal re-appearance and brushed the cobwebs off. Just been a bit nibbled at in the betting makes me think that this could be ready to put in a big performance today. 8/1 best price now, decent win bet for me.

Off to Bangor today so I will take your advice

tryfix

Mostly Harmless wrote: »

Apart from the awkwardness of having loads of the same silks or the Coolmore pacemaker/team tactics on flat, I don't really see the issue with having multiple horses running for the same connections in the same race - I don't think it makes the race any more or less of a lottery, a 20+ runner handicap hurdle run round a sharp track on soft ground will not see the FAV winning 100% of the time regardless of how many runners WPM has - if you ran yesterdays race a 100 times how many times would Sharjah win it?

Are we genuinely saying that when Wings Of Eagles won the Derby, the other Coolmore horses were out for a gallop?

You won't find too many people saying that O'Brien's horses aren't trying in an important race like the Epsom Derby. Wings Of Eagles was a running on 2nd in a Derby Trial, punters would be assuming that he'd be giving it his best to get placed in the Derby.

Where O'Brien's horses are out for a gallop is the 2yo maidens where very few of his bluebloods ever win first time out. It's O'Brien's training technique to run a clatter of Galileo, War Front and Scat Daddy debutants in a maiden where they often all finish out the back or running on from the rear at the end of the race after getting the most gentle of introductions.

Most 2yo debutants from other stables try a lot harder to "gain the best possible placing" on their debut and almost everyone understands that 2yo debutants are very green and that they should improve with racing. O'Brien's debutants often go way beyond the running green stage into the out for an educational gallop stage. Often the best bred O'Brien 2yo will go off favourite for a maiden with the once a year racegoer not having a clue that this particular favourite won't be running to win the race.

Ladyinthedark

Computer Science Student wrote: »

Have a mighty tip for tomorrow lads PM me if interested

Pm d u

NaiveMelodies

Francie Barrett wrote: »

You really are a sh1t stirrer, aren't you? No one said anything about fixing, so don't put words into my mouth.

Are you trying to say that calling Ruby a gangster is not implying that he is a cheat?

If you read the comment properly you'd note I said that these kind of comments 'go a long way to developing the notion'.
I am not putting words into your mouth.
I am actually explaining how the nonsensical words in your mouth could effect the opinions of new racegoers and prospective fans of the sport.

Francie Barrett

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Are you trying to say that calling Ruby a gangster is not implying that he is a cheat?

If you read the comment properly you'd note I said that these kind of comments 'go a long way to developing the notion'.
I am not putting words into your mouth.
I am actually explaining how the nonsensical words in your mouth could effect the opinions of new racegoers and prospective fans of the sport.

Of course he is not a cheat. He is the greatest national hunt rider of his generation. The notion he would try to fix a tuppenny race is nonsense.

The issue I have are his comments to the media. Horses that have no chance go off and win races, horses that he fancies do nothing, what's worse is that he talks about horses being in fine form schooling, only for them to be pulled for big races just hours later. This happens all the time with Ruby. You cannot trust a word that comes out of his mouth.

Auroras_encore

On all known form the first thing anyone would have done is put a line through sharjah on that ground and weight

Chancer3001

Ladyinthedark wrote: »

Pm d u

Let us know when it wins

BumperD

If jockeys knew what horses were going to win races, they wouldn’t be riding, they’d be long retired.

Mostly Harmless

Kudbegood in next looks to have been saved for Galway, decent ew bet imo

Francie Barrett

I think it's a huge conflict of interest for a jockey to be taking money from a bookmaker for opinions. But I am clearly in the minority here, so I will drop it.

BumperD

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I think it's a huge conflict of interest for a jockey to be taking money from a bookmaker for opinions. But I am clearly in the minority here, so I will drop it.

I totally agree with you on that. Conflicted up the ying yang.

tucker1971

BumperD wrote: »

I totally agree with you on that. Conflicted up the ying yang.

Another mullins second string nessun dorma goes in today, beating limini. Of course paddy power were offering limini and king of lear as an enhanced double...😉😉

MyStubbleItches

Francie Barrett wrote: »

I think it's a huge conflict of interest for a jockey to be taking money from a bookmaker for opinions. But I am clearly in the minority here, so I will drop it.

Give it a few days and you won't be in the minority until Cheltenham again.

Joe_ Public

As much as I disdain the practice if providing a bit of harmless guff for gullible shop punters is all jockeys are doing, then I don’t really see the conflict of interest. Does it change their approach to a race in any way, make them ride a race differently? Don’t see why it would to be honest.

And don’t see what special insight PP would need to go enhanced on a horse that had let down favorite backers on its 2 previous runs. I’d say the stable is a bit frustrated she couldn’t go out and get the job done tonight.

The answer is no: I don’t work for pp or any other bookmaker. Have no love for them whatsoever.

Whiplash85

Whenever you see enhanced prices on selections especially from Mullins yard alarm bells should be ringing.

mailburner

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Best bet of the day, if not week has to be Chieftain's Choice in the 4:20 at Bangor. This one always sticks in my head from when I saw it run back in November 2016 when it was a disgraceful non-trier. After a short holiday, it then came back to win a few months later off a mark of 114. A few runs later it now has a 124 rating over fences and is as low as 110 over hurdles after it made a seasonal re-appearance and brushed the cobwebs off. Just been a bit nibbled at in the betting makes me think that this could be ready to put in a big performance today. 8/1 best price now, decent win bet for me.

wonder how hard this tried today?
I'll back this one myself next time out but today to me looked like it was just out for a spin

just watched the start and the last half mile, bout 11th 2 out and going nowhere yet appeared to finish pretty fast to finish 7th