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Punchestown - Day 1

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    #32
    kiers47
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    Kauto wrote: »
    Ten Ten hasn't a hope! Lovely horse and chaser in making but first run in a handicap such as this = no chance. Doubt he will be that busy either. Not really JP's style to go for one first time in a handicap

    I wouldn't say he hasn't a hope now and certainly wasn't endorsing a bet on him. His price is about half what it should be.
    I haven't really studied the race was just trying to decipher what the lads were talking above.


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    #33
    kiers47
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    FelchWivMe wrote: »
    very true actually. dunno if mullins would be too happy about pumping one out for me tho

    Possibly a gelding operation could also be an option??


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    #34
    diomed
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,744 ✭✭✭diomed


    In the Irish Field last weekend it said that Henrietta Knight (trainer of Best Mate) will be at Punchestown signing her new book which is about the training methods of about thirty trainers. I will be buying it.
    I am not a NH person, but I like her book "Not Enough Time", and I like well written books. She was a teacher before she was a trainer.
    Fwiw I spent today packing up my horse racing books, 22 boxes so far with about 75% packed.


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    #35
    gazza1
    Registered Users Posts: 1,137 ✭✭✭gazza1


    JURY DUTY 6.40 surely must come into the reckoning based on runs prior to Cheltenham. Beat Shattered Love 3/4L over 22f here on heavy with Percy 12L back in 3rd.
    Should have no problem staying the extra on this ground.
    14s ew looks a value bet but does depend on how he's come out of the festival.


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    #36
    akelly02
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭akelly02


    All in on douvan tomorrow. Heart and head says he will win . Full duck or no dinner


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    #37
    Gavin "shels"
    Registered Users Posts: 17,963 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    Idea to have a daily thread? Will just be chaos otherwise!

    Maybe rename this for Day 1?


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    #38
    kiers47
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    Douvan seems a bonkers price tbh. He should be at minimum a 2/1 shot. I'm not sure how anyone could be backing him at 11/10 or whatever he is.
    If Min didn't go to Aintree I'd be pretty keen on him but it was a tough race. Think its a no bet race. To many unknowns. Douvan seems to short. Min seems to big. Can't have Un Des Sceaux. If Douvan hit evens on betfair I think I might lay him if pushed for a bet.
    A corker of a race to start the week can't wait for it.


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    #39
    akelly02
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭akelly02


    If douvan didn’t run at cheltenham last year he would be 2/7. He would have won if he stayed up this year in my opinion


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    #40
    kiers47
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    akelly02 wrote: »
    If douvan didn’t run at cheltenham last year he would be 2/7. He would have won if he stayed up this year in my opinion

    If douvan didn't run at Cheltenham last year and had 1 run at Cheltenham since then he would be the same price against this lot.

    Also he fell 4 out. I'm not sure how anyone could say he would have won. There was about half a mile or more to go.


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    #41
    posturingpat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    That Champion chase is the kind of race that having a bet in would almost ruin.
    No bet and i'll not be focussed on any one horse other than the others and will be able to fully enjoy what i think could be the best race of the year.


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    #42
    danganabu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    akelly02 wrote: »
    All in on douvan tomorrow. Heart and head says he will win . Full duck or no dinner
    kiers47 wrote: »
    Douvan seems a bonkers price tbh. He should be at minimum a 2/1 shot. I'm not sure how anyone could be backing him at 11/10 or whatever he is.
    If Min didn't go to Aintree I'd be pretty keen on him but it was a tough race. Think its a no bet race. To many unknowns. Douvan seems to short. Min seems to big. Can't have Un Des Sceaux. If Douvan hit evens on betfair I think I might lay him if pushed for a bet.
    A corker of a race to start the week can't wait for it.
    It's funny how we can all come to very diffeing views of the same race, I agree with kiers47 that the price on Douvan is bonkers, I would have had him as a 4/6 shot to be honest and like akelly02 i'll be going all in. The real Douvan shows up here and they wont see which way he went.


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    #43
    kiers47
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    danganabu wrote: »
    It's funny how we can all come to very diffeing views of the same race, I agree with kiers47 that the price on Douvan is bonkers, I would have had him as a 4/6 shot to be honest and like akelly02 i'll be going all in. The real Douvan shows up here and they wont see which way he went.

    Best of luck to ye lads rather.
    Ye are braver men than me.

    Can I ask a question what price would he have to be to be a layer of him. You reckon he is a 4/6 shot so maybe 1/2?


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    #44
    Slattsy
    Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Min had two very tough races in quick succession and possibly wouldn't be running here if Willie wasn't chasing the trainers championship. Douvan a fair price in my book.

    Douvan and Monalee double for me.


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    #45
    danganabu
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,277 ✭✭✭danganabu


    kiers47 wrote: »
    Best of luck to ye lads rather.
    Ye are braver men than me.

    Can I ask a question what price would he have to be to be a layer of him. You reckon he is a 4/6 shot so maybe 1/2?

    Yeah I would probably be a layer at 1/2, simply because its too skinny for a horse that may bounce and has a fall to get over. But at the current prices I think those fears are overstated.


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    #46
    kiers47
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    Douvan was so enthusiastic at Cheltenham I think that paul needs to try and settle him tomorrow. If he tries to take UDS on they could sicken each other possibly.
    I mean we have only seen the horse complete 2/3's of 2 races in nearly 18 months. Its a big risk to take on an even money shot in my eyes. I'd rather just watch the race tbh. If min didn't run in Aintree id certainly be backing him at the price. But that is also off putting. Good luck to anyone playing.


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    #47
    Justin10
    Registered Users Posts: 3,188 ✭✭✭Justin10


    Sharjah looks a decent price to me on better ground.

    I couldn't have Douvan at evens, hopefully he bolts up, might so a small treble or something but couldn't have him at evens.


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    #48
    RivetingRoger
    Registered Users Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭RivetingRoger


    Getabird Douvan Monalee treble on.
    Low Sun @10/1single
    Blue templar/think positive Double
    Harringtons one in the last single


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    #49
    circadian
    Registered Users Posts: 6,918 ✭✭✭circadian


    I reckon Douvan will smash this but at the same time going in on evens just makes me think "too big to fail".


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    #50
    Rock Lesnar
    Registered Users Posts: 11,880 ✭✭✭✭Rock Lesnar


    Only 2 bets for me today, Dis Donc in the 4.55 and Shattered Love in the 6.40


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    #51
    HandsomeBob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,977 ✭✭✭HandsomeBob


    Two 5 singles and a 5 double: Mengli Khan and UDS. That's my lot for the day.


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    #52
    posturingpat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    kiers47 wrote: »
    Unless of course your thinking something further down the betting? In which case im quite intrigued.

    Ivanovic gorbatov is the one I'm thinking of mainly. Back on decent ground at long last and I expect a big run. Houses of parliament very interesting too on decent ground seeing as with the jockeys claim he's running of a mark ridiculously lenient in comparison to his flat mark(which was achieved on good ground).


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    #53
    famagusta
    Registered Users Posts: 602 ✭✭✭famagusta


    Monalee has to be a big price at 9/4, best form in the race, beaten most of them before...


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    #54
    akelly02
    Registered Users Posts: 3,133 ✭✭✭akelly02


    kiers47 wrote: »
    If douvan didn't run at Cheltenham last year and had 1 run at Cheltenham since then he would be the same price against this lot.

    Also he fell 4 out. I'm not sure how anyone could say he would have won. There was about half a mile or more to go.

    he had half of them in trouble at that stage including altior, away and gone he would have been by the time altior hit top gear


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    #55
    posturingpat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    famagusta wrote: »
    Monalee has to be a big price at 9/4, best form in the race, beaten most of them before...

    Yeah i'd fully agree. Expected 7/4 or as low as 13/8 so i think i'll have a go at 9/4.


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    #56
    Slattsy
    Registered Users Posts: 15,775 ✭✭✭✭Slattsy


    Lot of rain in Dublin city centre over the last hour or so, wonder if Punch is getting any of it?


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    #57
    posturingpat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    Slattsy wrote: »
    Lot of rain in Dublin city centre over the last hour or so, wonder if Punch is getting any of it?

    Interesting, wouldn't do Ivanovic any favours.:(


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    #58
    The Mig
    Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 2,034 Mod ✭✭✭✭The Mig


    Ivanovich Gorbatov is gone at the game.

    My picks for today:
    Sharjah and Draconian
    Bunk Off Early
    Finians Oscar


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    #59
    kiers47
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,564 ✭✭✭kiers47


    Douvan being the only horse they want to back in the Champion Chase it seems. Its odd that it was quite the opposite at cheltenham where he was friendless and Min was smashed.
    If Min drifts any further i think id be a backer each way maybe if someone stuck their head out at 4/1 or possibly 7/2


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    #60
    posturingpat
    Registered Users Posts: 2,722 ✭✭✭posturingpat


    The Mig wrote: »
    Ivanovich Gorbatov is gone at the game.

    My picks for today:
    Sharjah and Draconian
    Bunk Off Early
    Finians Oscar

    Keep hearing this but the last time he encountered decent ground he was beaten 3 lengths off 150 in a county hurdle. His runs this year he's hated the ground and i'll be surprised if he doesn't run a lot better race today than he has been as long as that bloody rain doesn't get into the ground :o


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    #61
    maximo31
    Registered Users Posts: 1,015 ✭✭✭maximo31


    Some price drop on Tyner's horse in the 6.05. 100/1 last night , down as low as 12/1 now!20's left in a few places.


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