Punchestown - Day 1

antietam

Melon, a donkey of absolute extreme based on his breeding to win a NH top race.The worst champion hurdle ever on times this is my LAY Punchestown big ,big time..

piplip87

Seems as if Mullins is going for the 1-2-3 in the champion chase. Any order tricast could be a good bet.

ANDREWMUFC

Mullins has like 3 runners in every race ffs pathetic

chancer007

€40 in on the Friday!

kiers47

chancer007 wrote: »

€40 in on the Friday!

Standard enough really. Tickets could be got cheaper if you booked in advance.
But 40e isn't the worst value really in my eyes.

akelly02

kiers47 wrote: »

Standard enough really. Tickets could be got cheaper if you booked in advance.
But 40e isn't the worst value really in my eyes.

It’s cheaper to cheltenham ffs

kiers47

akelly02 wrote: »

It’s cheaper to cheltenham ffs

I dunno where you go in Cheltenham but the tatts tickets is £50. My couch at home is better than the kip the best mate enclosure so its not comparable.

madmoose

Will Samcro go CH? The 2/1 huge now if so, field looks muck.

longshotvalue

madmoose wrote: »

Will Samcro go CH? The 2/1 huge now if so, field looks muck.

Jeez i think he should be about 5/1. Sharp 2 miles on good ground he has a fair bit to make up on melon and mtoy. This could really suit mtoy, but i dont have the confidence i had in him before.

RivetingRoger

antietam wrote: »

Melon, a donkey of absolute extreme based on his breeding to win a NH top race.The worst champion hurdle ever on times this is my LAY Punchestown big ,big time..

Melon must be the most divisive nh horse in ireland. I think he is a great bit of stuff

kiers47

RivetingRoger wrote: »

Melon must be the most divisive nh horse in ireland. I think he is a great bit of stuff

Id be far from a Melon fan. Not from his lack of ability but he is almost always overbet. However it looks like he'll get his conditions here and will certainly be a price if Samcro rocks up.
I think id be a backer if the market goes the way i think its going to go.

madmoose

aidankkk wrote: »

Jeez i think he should be about 5/1. Sharp 2 miles on good ground he has a fair bit to make up on melon and mtoy. This could really suit mtoy, but i dont have the confidence i had in him before.

It’s a poor field with horses that rarely get their heads in front. Samcro has plenty of gears so the drop back at a sharp track would be fine.

madmoose

I know they said he was but will Identity Thief be turning up for the stayers on Thursday as i’m tempted to back it now at 7/1, after Aintree he could be half that if declared.

BoroMan32

madmoose wrote: »

I know they said he was but will Identity Thief be turning up for the stayers on Thursday as i’m tempted to back it now at 7/1, after Aintree he could be half that if declared.

William Hill still 6/1 on Bacardys for the Stayers. Seems more than fair to me, as short as 7/2 elsewhere.

madmoose

Dutch those two, have to respect Bacardys who won at the meeting a year ago, surely due a race where he gets around!!

Love this meeting because in recwnt experience taking on the favs is profitable.

The Mig

Trainers(especially Mullins) 2nd and 3rd strings this week I'll be backing

gazza1

Western Boy to repeat last year's win ?

longshotvalue

gazza1 wrote: »

Western Boy to repeat last year's win ?

Beaten by another in the same colors that will love good ground.. Hopefully, and depending on prices..

posturingpat

aidankkk wrote: »

Beaten by another in the same colors that will love good ground.. Hopefully, and depending on prices..

Odd jockey bookings. Could be to put people off the obvious one if we're thinking along similar lines :pac:

kiers47

posturingpat wrote: »

Odd jockey bookings. Could be to put people off the obvious one if we're thinking along similar lines :pac:

If your talking Ballyoisin and Ten Ten then its plainly because Barry cannot do 10 stone unless he cut off a foot :pac:

Id imagine he would have picked Ballyoisin anyway considering he has potentionally nearly 2 stone in hand of his hurdle rating when compared to his chase rating.

Not always that easy but it is a fair whack in this sort of race.

kiers47

Unless of course your thinking something further down the betting? In which case im quite intrigued.

Peintre Celebre

Ivanovich id imagine

Slattsy

Sharjah each way for me at 20s. Will love this better ground so hopefully we don't see too much more rain.

NaiveMelodies

Western Boy to repeat. Fairly confident after a Mullins live one didnt make the lineup.

I'd say Cartwright will improve a fair bit on better ground and a good price w/o GAB would be tempting.

posturingpat

NaiveMelodies wrote: »

Western Boy to repeat. Fairly confident after a Mullins live one didnt make the lineup.

I'd say Cartwright will improve a fair bit on good ground and a good price w/o GAB would be tempting.

If you fancy him or anything else for that matter i wouldn't bother with the w/o market, i'd be very shocked if Hardline doesn't hassle Getabird early which along with the decent ground could give him plenty of trouble.

NaiveMelodies

posturingpat wrote: »

If you fancy him or anything else for that matter i wouldn't bother with the w/o market, i'd be very shocked if Hardline doesn't hassle Getabird early which along with the decent ground could give him plenty of trouble.

Hardline surely well over the top at this stage, can't see him bothering Getabird too much!
Re Cartwright I should have said e/w W/o fav.

piplip87

My Fancys for tomorrow:

4.20 Vision Des Flos (Refund if Getabird wins)
4.55 Low Sun.
6.05 That's a Given. (Nap) (Can't imagine Hobbs sending one over for a bumper if it didn't have a real chance)
6.40 Finians Oscar.
7.15 Final list.

Enniskillen, GetaBird, Douvan, Monalee in an ACCA.

FelchWivMe

apparently Mullins refuses to jack off any of his male horses because he wants their testosterone levels to be high before the races. during the off season though, he jacks them off all the time

Niallers87

FelchWivMe wrote: »

apparently Mullins refuses to jack off any of his male horses because he wants their testosterone levels to be high before the races. during the off season though, he jacks them off all the time

You should maybe take some of that advice given what happens u in the tallagt gym🀣🀣🀣

FelchWivMe

Niallers87 wrote: »

You should maybe take some of that advice given what happens u in the tallagt gym������

very true actually. dunno if mullins would be too happy about pumping one out for me tho

Kauto

kiers47 wrote: »

If your talking Ballyoisin and Ten Ten then its plainly because Barry cannot do 10 stone unless he cut off a foot :pac:

Id imagine he would have picked Ballyoisin anyway considering he has potentionally nearly 2 stone in hand of his hurdle rating when compared to his chase rating.

Not always that easy but it is a fair whack in this sort of race.

Ten Ten hasn't a hope! Lovely horse and chaser in making but first run in a handicap such as this = no chance. Doubt he will be that busy either. Not really JP's style to go for one first time in a handicap

kiers47

Kauto wrote: »

Ten Ten hasn't a hope! Lovely horse and chaser in making but first run in a handicap such as this = no chance. Doubt he will be that busy either. Not really JP's style to go for one first time in a handicap

I wouldn't say he hasn't a hope now and certainly wasn't endorsing a bet on him. His price is about half what it should be.
I haven't really studied the race was just trying to decipher what the lads were talking above.

kiers47

FelchWivMe wrote: »

very true actually. dunno if mullins would be too happy about pumping one out for me tho

Possibly a gelding operation could also be an option??

diomed

In the Irish Field last weekend it said that Henrietta Knight (trainer of Best Mate) will be at Punchestown signing her new book which is about the training methods of about thirty trainers. I will be buying it.
I am not a NH person, but I like her book "Not Enough Time", and I like well written books. She was a teacher before she was a trainer.
Fwiw I spent today packing up my horse racing books, 22 boxes so far with about 75% packed.

gazza1

JURY DUTY 6.40 surely must come into the reckoning based on runs prior to Cheltenham. Beat Shattered Love 3/4L over 22f here on heavy with Percy 12L back in 3rd.
Should have no problem staying the extra on this ground.
14s ew looks a value bet but does depend on how he's come out of the festival.

akelly02

All in on douvan tomorrow. Heart and head says he will win . Full duck or no dinner

Gavin "shels"

Idea to have a daily thread? Will just be chaos otherwise!

Maybe rename this for Day 1?

kiers47

Douvan seems a bonkers price tbh. He should be at minimum a 2/1 shot. I'm not sure how anyone could be backing him at 11/10 or whatever he is.
If Min didn't go to Aintree I'd be pretty keen on him but it was a tough race. Think its a no bet race. To many unknowns. Douvan seems to short. Min seems to big. Can't have Un Des Sceaux. If Douvan hit evens on betfair I think I might lay him if pushed for a bet.
A corker of a race to start the week can't wait for it.

akelly02

If douvan didn’t run at cheltenham last year he would be 2/7. He would have won if he stayed up this year in my opinion

kiers47

akelly02 wrote: »

If douvan didn’t run at cheltenham last year he would be 2/7. He would have won if he stayed up this year in my opinion

If douvan didn't run at Cheltenham last year and had 1 run at Cheltenham since then he would be the same price against this lot.

Also he fell 4 out. I'm not sure how anyone could say he would have won. There was about half a mile or more to go.

posturingpat

That Champion chase is the kind of race that having a bet in would almost ruin.
No bet and i'll not be focussed on any one horse other than the others and will be able to fully enjoy what i think could be the best race of the year.

danganabu

akelly02 wrote: »

All in on douvan tomorrow. Heart and head says he will win . Full duck or no dinner

kiers47 wrote: »

Douvan seems a bonkers price tbh. He should be at minimum a 2/1 shot. I'm not sure how anyone could be backing him at 11/10 or whatever he is.
If Min didn't go to Aintree I'd be pretty keen on him but it was a tough race. Think its a no bet race. To many unknowns. Douvan seems to short. Min seems to big. Can't have Un Des Sceaux. If Douvan hit evens on betfair I think I might lay him if pushed for a bet.
A corker of a race to start the week can't wait for it.

It's funny how we can all come to very diffeing views of the same race, I agree with kiers47 that the price on Douvan is bonkers, I would have had him as a 4/6 shot to be honest and like akelly02 i'll be going all in. The real Douvan shows up here and they wont see which way he went.

kiers47

danganabu wrote: »

It's funny how we can all come to very diffeing views of the same race, I agree with kiers47 that the price on Douvan is bonkers, I would have had him as a 4/6 shot to be honest and like akelly02 i'll be going all in. The real Douvan shows up here and they wont see which way he went.

Best of luck to ye lads rather.
Ye are braver men than me.

Can I ask a question what price would he have to be to be a layer of him. You reckon he is a 4/6 shot so maybe 1/2?

Slattsy

Min had two very tough races in quick succession and possibly wouldn't be running here if Willie wasn't chasing the trainers championship. Douvan a fair price in my book.

Douvan and Monalee double for me.

danganabu

kiers47 wrote: »

Best of luck to ye lads rather.
Ye are braver men than me.

Can I ask a question what price would he have to be to be a layer of him. You reckon he is a 4/6 shot so maybe 1/2?

Yeah I would probably be a layer at 1/2, simply because its too skinny for a horse that may bounce and has a fall to get over. But at the current prices I think those fears are overstated.

kiers47

Douvan was so enthusiastic at Cheltenham I think that paul needs to try and settle him tomorrow. If he tries to take UDS on they could sicken each other possibly.
I mean we have only seen the horse complete 2/3's of 2 races in nearly 18 months. Its a big risk to take on an even money shot in my eyes. I'd rather just watch the race tbh. If min didn't run in Aintree id certainly be backing him at the price. But that is also off putting. Good luck to anyone playing.

Justin10

Sharjah looks a decent price to me on better ground.

I couldn't have Douvan at evens, hopefully he bolts up, might so a small treble or something but couldn't have him at evens.

RivetingRoger

Getabird Douvan Monalee treble on.
Low Sun @10/1single
Blue templar/think positive Double
Harringtons one in the last single

circadian

I reckon Douvan will smash this but at the same time going in on evens just makes me think "too big to fail".

Rock Lesnar

Only 2 bets for me today, Dis Donc in the 4.55 and Shattered Love in the 6.40

HandsomeBob

Two 5 singles and a 5 double: Mengli Khan and UDS. That's my lot for the day.