FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

nacho libre

sryanbruen wrote: »

The end of the GFS 12z run shows an absolute monster of a block over Greenland of over 1060mb.... now if only that was in December. Complete waste of a beautiful Winter chart..... why does it have to be in April?

Like 99.9% unlikely though to happen cause a 1060mb block in April.... seriously GFS? :P

If the ECM went further it might show something similar, albeit not as strong a high pressure.
If the ukmo is backing the gfs, this might be the winter- er, spring, that keeps on giving:)

Kermit.de.frog

GFS again going to try bring an easterly in FI. Interesting to observe this in the days ahead.

Kermit.de.frog

GFS control run also will go easterly. Again high pressure just strong enough to the north.





So, important ECM this morning. Will we see some hints?

Kermit.de.frog

ECM could go easterly



I have seen enough that there is a genuine risk of very cold conditions toward the end of the month. Most likely, once again, from the east. That inherently brings the risk of snow and ice back in for a 3rd time (which would be unheard of in recorded history as far as I am aware).

Long way to go though.

sryanbruen

I've just been working heavily on my November/December 2010 article all day (hopefully will be done and posted in the Irish Weather Statistics thread by the end of the day) with barely any break because some people are waiting in anticipation for it and I don't want to keep them waiting for too long so haven't gotten much time to look at the models but brrrr cold GFS 12z.

sryanbruen

ECM 12z brings in an easterly with coldest air chiefly across the north of the UK.

typhoony

if the last easterly was called Son of Beast of the East the next one must be called Grandson of Beast of the East

Wanderer78

typhoony wrote: »

if the last easterly was called Son of Beast of the East the next one must be called Grandson of Beast of the East

since its the age of equality, maybe, 'the daughter of the beast':D

Cork981

Wanderer78 wrote: »

since its the age of equality, maybe, 'the daughter of the beast':D

Who are we to decide the gender of the Beast.

The beast may prefer to identity itself as neither male nor female but as a gender fluid entity.

gabeeg

It's really quiet in here

pauldry

Maybe the end of month cold will be called BEaster!

I think this will be the last one and slightly less potent again.

So March....in like a lion and out like a ....lion?

sryanbruen

gabeeg wrote: »

It's really quiet in here

I was waiting for the GFS 18z to fully roll out, seems it's pushed the cold air even further northwards than the ECM 12z's track. Still an easterly and a cold GFS run it seems nevertheless.

I completed my November/December 2010 article tonight for those who had anticipated it or are interested, I made sure it's a long treat for you to read and enjoy yourself at. It can be read in the link below. I'm warning you: it's very long. Please appreciate all the hard work gone into this particular article. Sorry for pulling discussion slightly off topic.

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057714322&page=22

Back to FI charts.... so it seems beast from the east part 3 is becoming highly likely now with it being brought forward by the ECM and the GFS runs being consistently cold. The question lies in where the coldest of the air will lie. With the thickness lines, it seems a very wintry outlook. We can get significant lying snow in April as it did in 2008 which was preceded by the February 2008 SSW that year, but the lying snow will not last long:

gabeeg

pauldry wrote: »

Maybe the end of month cold will be called BEaster!

I think this will be the last one and slightly less potent again.

So March....in like a lion and out like a ....lion?

This should definitely be the last easterly of the... month

But then so should the first one. And the one after that definitely should have been the last one. So this one definitely will be.

sryanbruen

Ok..... GFS 18z, what are you actually smoking mate?

Northerly then snowstorm followed by easterly.

**Collapses**

No thank you, it's all too much. I'm out.

gabeeg

I've a good mate getting married on the 31st in Tipp.
This is not an IMBY, but a question of weather etiquette - should I warn him?

The burden of hugely questionable knowledge. It's like having a crap crystal ball that lies to you.

sdanseo

sryanbruen wrote: »

Ok..... GFS 18z, what are you actually smoking mate?

Northerly then snowstorm followed by easterly.

**Collapses**

No thank you, it's all too much. I'm out.

Saw that, but surely temps would be really struggling in the active low for snow to all levels?

sryanbruen

sdanseo wrote: »

Saw that, but surely temps would be really struggling in the active low for snow to all levels?

gabeeg

1812 - the year without summer

km79

Someone else has to be depressed at the thought of that chart coming to fruition in may ???????

gabeeg

That chart definitely won't happen, and the whole model might be completely useless at that range

sryanbruen

gabeeg wrote: »

1812 - the year without summer

1816 :rolleyes:.

km79 wrote: »

Someone else has to be depressed at the thought of that chart coming to fruition in may ???????

The end of the run has us in a lull between areas of low pressure to the east and west but it's still cold. Wouldn't totally discount it even if it's way way out in FI, at least a man can hope for it.

Unfortunately, no signs of Spring right now.

nacho libre

blizzards beast for some:

I'm afraid i have some very bad news for you km79:
UK and Ireland cold snap set to 'extend BEYOND Easter' with 'MULTIPLE Beasts from the East until June':

But seriously the way out maybe near by the last chart Sryan posted, if those lows to west barrel through, i think that may well be the end of the easterly influence. Although the continent should start to warm up quickly in April anyway. So any easterlies by the second week of April should be less cold.

sideswipe

sryanbruen wrote: »

Ok..... GFS 18z, what are you actually smoking mate?

Northerly then snowstorm followed by easterly.

**Collapses**

No thank you, it's all too much. I'm out.

Touché




Jet stream still on holidays.

sryanbruen

GFS 06z is a cold one again with cold keep trying to come back when the high pressure out to the west attempts to ridge over Ireland but never does so truly. Nevertheless, this run looks very dry than wintry especially in the west, perhaps some happy news for them. Just remember it's not going to warm up any time soon but if you do get sunshine well then it will feel nice at this time of year.

The precipitation charts show some snow but daytime temperatures are between 5-7c generally, as MT mentioned in his daily forecast.

typhoony

sideswipe wrote: »

Touché




Jet stream still on holidays.

Gone from being on a a Carribean holiday to a Spanish holiday, I still think the azores high will shift it north sooner than the models are showing

sryanbruen

GFS 12z is just chilly, nothing more than that.

sdanseo

ECM 12z for tomorrow week:



-13 uppers not very far away, snow with any precip from this in the North if not more widespread.
South/southwesterly system coming in at the same time could well result in snowmageddon Mk. II.

Kermit.de.frog

ECM brings the risk of some frontal snowfall in places through the middle of next week. Decent set up.

BLIZZARD7

Wowee, the spring that keeps on giving - ECM cold/possibly snowy from +144hrs out til the end of the run

nacho libre

A very blocked pattern.
This must be a response to mjo going to phase 7 as well as the recent wind reversal in the strat. If the ECM is correct, it's about as cold and snowy as you could possibly get at this time of year, with some very cold weather lurking nearby to our north.
There is potential for a significant fall of snow in places too via a frontal incusion. Will Kermit the frog have to create another thread for a cold out break around Easter?