FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**

sryanbruen

ECM 12z is more in line with the GFS.

sryanbruen

ECM you teaser , very brief southwesterly before the northerly on the 12z.

JCX BXC

sryanbruen wrote: »

ECM you teaser , very brief southwesterly before the northerly on the 12z.

Not sure why you'd want a southwesterly, cloudy, damp and dreary weather is all too common in this country!

I hope you're doing reverse psychology!

sryanbruen

JCX BXC wrote: »

Not sure why you'd want a southwesterly, cloudy, damp and dreary weather is all too common in this country!

I hope you're doing reverse psychology!

Of course I am!

A northerly will be much clearer.

Donegal Storm

Heading into April a setup like that would probably lead to some land based convection kicking off so plenty of sunshine but with nice cloudscapes and thundery hail showers. I'd take that..

nacho libre

Donegal Storm wrote: »

Heading into April a setup like that would probably lead to some land based convection kicking off so plenty of sunshine but with nice cloudscapes and thundery hail showers. I'd take that..

Yes some heavy hail showers mixed with snow would be good.

sryanbruen

On phone so can’t post charts, but Pub Run continues to show northerly for Easter and staying with us for quite a few days. The GFS has been very consistent with this, all runs today of it have showed this northerly.

pauldry

I remember in 2006 I think it was there was the Northerly being shown on the charts around April but then what followed was some glorious weather for the following few months.

Surely we are due some warmth after this Northerly...surely

JCX BXC

JCX BXC wrote: »

Not sure why you'd want a southwesterly, cloudy, damp and dreary weather is all too common in this country!

I hope you're doing reverse psychology!

Woo hoo!! Come on the Bartlett high........





(gets coat).

kingshankly

nacho libre wrote: »

Yes some heavy hail showers mixed with snow would be good.

It would in its hole its fceking heat we need folks. at this stage have been looking at snow on and off since early January. I’m sure farmers are desperate for a bit of growth at this stage
Would slso be nice not to be having to fill the oil tank every 6 weeks

sryanbruen

GFS 0z was still showing northerly, 06z coming very very shortly for the period.

sryanbruen

GFS 06z is a northerly again and more potent than the 0z.

Elmer Blooker

The possibility of a White Easter still there on the 6z.
I heard somewhere that snow is more common at Easter than Christmas?
I would believe it but only when it's an early Easter such as this one.
edit: Sryan beat me to it.

typhoony

the azores high is finally back where it should be, even if we do get a northerly during the middle of next week it's from the azores extending north instead of cold air pushing south, so very likely we get upper single digit temps by day and feeling pleasant enough away from the wind. Of course all of this is outside the reliable timeframe and the Azores High could as easily orientate in a SW to NE direction which would bring us springlike conditions

sryanbruen

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

The possibility of a White Easter still there on the 6z.
I heard somewhere that snow is more common at Easter than Christmas?
I would believe it but only when it's an early Easter such as this one.
edit: Sryan beat me to it.

I will research and do a table of previous Easters analysing information from charts from the archives.

ECM 0z shows zonal and fairly chilly conditions.





ECM 0z ensemble mean shows northerly.

Elmer Blooker

sryanbruen wrote: »

I will research and do a table of previous Easters analysing information from charts from the archives.

I have heard many times about a famous white Easter in 1975.
There's somewhere to start!

spookwoman

29th looks fun

brookers

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I have heard many times about a famous white Easter in 1975.
There's somewhere to start!

Easter 1984 was really warm and the start of a great summer, it was quite late in April that year. I remember the summer well because my dad was sick.

Jimjay

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I have heard many times about a famous white Easter in 1975.
There's somewhere to start!

My Sister was born March 28th 1975. My mum was already in the hospital and my dad struggled to get to the hospital due to heavy snow and my grandad got stuck in the snow and couldn't get there. (This was in Lincolnshire UK)

Villain

1975 details for Ireland http://edepositireland.ie/bitstream/handle/2262/70969/Agromet%20Bull%207504.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y

sryanbruen

GFS 12z is cold yet again but more of an easterly than a northerly. Wouldn't last that long it seems given the Azores High in the mix.

sryanbruen

GEM 12z is a northerly/northeasterly.

SleetAndSnow

Surprisingly enough, the UKMO is backing the GFS at 144hr, beast 3 incoming?

sryanbruen

The end of the GFS 12z run shows an absolute monster of a block over Greenland of over 1060mb.... now if only that was in December. Complete waste of a beautiful Winter chart..... why does it have to be in April?

Like 99.9% unlikely though to happen cause a 1060mb block in April.... seriously GFS? :P

sryanbruen

ECM 12z shows no northerly at +216hrs but there does seem some signs of Azores High retrogression up to Greenland here. Even then, the air is still fairly chilly with this southwesterly because look where the isobars originate from.

NAGDEFI

brookers wrote: »

Easter 1984 was really warm and the start of a great summer, it was quite late in April that year. I remember the summer well because my dad was sick.

Easter Sunday fell on 22nd April iirc. That whole week after was amazing. I think Northern Ireland set a record April max of 24.6C in Derry, also Valentia had a record April max of 24C.

Kermit.de.frog

GFS dangling the carrot of possibly a 3rd easterly incursion before the end of the month...the GFS has not performed well at all for some time though. So poor it's been almost ignored favor of the European models in recent months.

sryanbruen

Yep, beast from the east part 3 on the GFS 18z. Still all FI for now and don't forget, before the 06z this morning, the GFS was showing this as a northerly, now an easterly.

gabeeg

I wouldn't bet against it.

It'd be a weaker easterly again, but hitting all that moisture... Jeebus

BLIZZARD7

Hmmm certainly support there on the GEFS /Eps for a potent shot from the North/North east/East - surely not another blast coming our way?