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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Lumi

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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YanSno

Latest charts suggest a potential reload from the east

nacho libre

https://twitter.com/MetmanJames

Stratospheric winds expected to become easterly again, this will likely be the final warming (climatological weakening into spring as seen by the black line.

Rebelbrowser

another cold blast less likely this morning. ECM has a much bigger cold pool but it stalls at the north sea on Paddys weekend whilst gfs actually has a brief easterly incursion as it goes south of us but with unremarkable uppers.

George Sunsnow

Yes a much better outlook from the Ecm this morning thankfully
The southwesterlies will be welcome for most versus another closedown
Note too the surface feed in any easterly that does reach us is down around Romania
Current Bucharest temp is +17c
I think most people would be happy if that’s where any easterly is sourced because it would be a drying mild wind

George Sunsnow

Only a very weak ridge type scandy high of no consequence anywhere on the last two ECM runs
A lot of rain as it also has the low of the GFS and UKM models

I haven't time to wait for a pointless 240 image but the flow up to 192h is definitely surface sourced where 2m temps are likely to be in the high teens down around Romania and Greece
Ergo quite dry and relatively mild away from coasts
216 has appeared while I type and that suggests the scandy high is gone altogether and we remain in a Col
A sliding low with building pressure to the north might send our source air feed to the northeast though suggesting Cold weather by then
But given the volatility of all models and the fact all these lows just seem to meander around in the absence of a jet to push them I'd not bother too much with that picture,theres too much change in the outer realms of the reliable at the moment

And there you have it tonights 240,has the scandy high an Iceland high and invites in a NE beast
Of course tomorrow morning it will be different again
Oh I seem to have waited for a pointless 240 image
All I need to do now is hop over to netweather where no doubt somebody with about as much knowledge of weather as my cat will have posted "Boom!"
Its a funny old world :rolleyes:

Kermit.de.frog

That's a cold medium term outlook on this evening's GFS. Would bring plentiful snow showers to the east of the country.

Similarly ICON has us on the edge of something useful too

ECM ENS mean around St Patrick's Day is moving more towards an easterly now.

EDM1-192.GIF?10-0

sdanseo

NAVGEM is going for it, as is the JMA although the air looks a bit warmer since it's being spun up from Turkey

Most of the rest aren't long enough range, GEM and ICON having none of it and ECM is only halfway on board. A long way to go yet.

navgem-0-180.png?10-18

nacho libre

gfs-1-180.png.efdfc6fd690ea40320c97f45a6de818a.png

The beast is sill on course according to the latest GFS. Hopefully this output verifies.

Meteorite58

At the moment it looks to me like a brief incursion of cold uppers leading to sharp frosts perhaps on the Eastern side of the country as an area of HP centers just to the E of Ireland , looks like this area of HP could block the coldest airs sending them down into France / the Med. Temperatures getting up to around 4- 6 C during the day in the E perhaps a couple of degrees more in the W under possible cloud and perhaps windy along the W coast . Sun, Mon somewhat cool /cold perhaps but it looks like a return to milder air on Tues. It seems to me that it doesn't take long for the Atlantic to take charge again.

aidanodr

RETURN OF THE BEAST? TV3 weatherman raises fears Beast from the East could return to cause chaos on St Patrick’s weekend

Deric Ó hArtagáin has warned that recent patterns could be indicating a return of the weather hell

https://twitter.com/deric_hartigan/status/972909547970015232

Kermit.de.frog

The cold air will be pooling out east again in the coming days. It's the direction of travel west that needs to be sorted...

nacho libre

-13 upper air into parts of England on the latest ecm run, although it does not last long.
One thing is certain, parts of Europe are going into the freezer again. A very impressive cold pool is building out east for the time of year. It would be too good to be true to get another beast from the east so soon- that would be mother nature playing tricks on us. A mid altantic high looks the forms horse in fi.
So Ireland may not be visited by the child of the beast, but those looking for warm spring weather will probably be waiting a while longer.

Rebelbrowser

latest gfs looks like snow showers on Monday week and a trip to the beach a week later!

BLIZZARD7

Morning runs are building on the easterly trend, any more similar shifts north and we're in the firing line from the beast. A remarkable cold pool sitting just to our East next weekend. -16c uppers lurking over the south East UK/benelux area on the ICON. If we can manage a depth of cold even close to our last blast then I for one will be very interested.
@George Sunsnow I fear you have not seen the last of the snow just yet...

UKMO trending the right way if it's a mini beast you're after, not quite perfect for us yet though.

UW120-21.GIF?12-05

nacho libre

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Morning runs are building on the easterly trend, any more similar shifts north and we're in the firing line from the beast. A remarkable cold pool sitting just to our East next weekend. -16c uppers lurking over the south East UK/benelux area on the ICON. If we can manage a depth of cold even close to our last blast then I for one will be very interested.
@George Sunsnow I fear you have not seen the last of the snow just yet...

The UKMO and Icon have heavy snow showers for the South East of England next Sunday. It would be great to see upgrades in the next day or so, but i fear Ireland will just miss out on the beast and those who turned their back on snow won't be punished for their insolence:(. But seriously the fact another easterly is even a possibility is remarkable. Just think we go years without easterly, then two are a possibility within two weeks of each other.

nacho libre

If this were shifted further north, i mean the core of the cold, and further west, it would be game on for something close to the beast part 2. M.T.Cranium would have to reconsider his holiday. He would be fretting his Canadian Warming too. To see the -16 upper temperatures close to Britain at this time of year is incredible!

Mount Vesuvius

ECM at 144 says get the shovels out again. And I'm not talking beach ones. Game on .

M.T. Cranium

Yes and the GFS has backed off its coldest intrusion, battle of models time again. GEM brings cold air to Britain and not quite into Ireland before it's pushed away by day eight.

Agreed that if ECM verified, a lot of snow potential.

Waiting to see if this is one-off or a building trend.

There's a large storm brewing in the western Atlantic that models need to forecast accurately before we get to any sort of certainty, if that tracks east of present consensus, could keep the westerly action alive, and this is probably why GFS has backed off because it is east of other models with this low (due to be near Nova Scotia by 12z Wed).

Rebelbrowser

hilarious ECM this morning. we were washing and putting away ski clothes yesterday. have just put task on hold......

BLIZZARD7

ECM a shift north but similar to UKMO until +120hrs, end result = mini beast and a return to deep winter for a few days.

ECM1-120.GIF?12-12

Very very interesting chart viewing these past few weeks.

BLIZZARD7

Strong signal and notable shift colder on the EPS too - Amazing to think these charts are for mid to late March. Very cold for any time of the year.

- Lows sliding on a NW-SE axis with that wedge of heights building to our North East

EDM1-120.GIF?12-12

cherryghost

GFS still has a swing and a miss southwards. No charts in any real agreement still so long way to go yet.

Oneiric 3

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Strong signal and notable shift colder on the EPS too - Amazing to think these charts are for mid to late March. Very cold for any time of the year.

Beautiful chart, and one I can only hope that will be repeated many times during the late Spring and coming Summer, because it would only mean one thing: power showers like none other.

Kermit.de.frog

Still a good bit of uncertainty across the models. It will turn colder, how much colder remains open. There is a risk of some disruptive snowfall returning and associated overnight frost and icy conditions, no doubt about that.

A thread could be opened shortly if we see more consensus. It's Saturday morning onward we are focused on here.

Definitely keep an eye on the forecasts especially if you have been badly effected with the last event.

12z model runs big today!

Kermit.de.frog

First model of the evening. ICON will bring in the cold air further north. This at just 105 hrs out...

Rebelbrowser

Dublin Parade looking interesting...

Gotta like that cold pool over Britain seemingly on its way to us...

pad199207

Hard not to get excited AGAIN with that ICON

Kermit.de.frog

UKMO goes a little further south with the colder air more in to the continent.

Meanwhile GEM...

gem-0-114.png?12

BLIZZARD7

GFS is an improvement on its 06z run, better alignment, cold pool further north and west earlier on but still a near miss, better ridging towards eastern Greenland seems to be the difference. UKMO not great with the real cold stopping around Belgium. GEM and ICON are stunning - over to you ECM...

GFS might be a delay rather than a near miss, still prefer the ICON and GEM with the cleaner evolution -

gfs-1-144.png?12

Kermit.de.frog

Yes, important ECM this evening. Good signs overall for some much colder weather (if that's what you want!).