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FI Charts (T120+ onwards) Spring 2018 READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST

Lumi

Mod Note

This thread is for posting/discussing/analysing FI CHARTS ONLY i.e. Charts in the unreliable time frame, generally +T120 onwards

If your post does not specifically relate to an FI chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved

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sryanbruen

UKMO 12z is teasing an easterly to take place. High pressure is forming to the east of Europe trying to go up to Scandinavia as the low pressure stalls over Ireland.

GFS 12z gets here too by +240hrs.

Low pressure stalling over Ireland, Scandinavian High forming. Two precursors to an easterly, let's see how she goes.

George Sunsnow

We’d be much better off if the fledgling azores high to the southwest on that ukmo model ridged northeast
Snow and cold with all due respect can Feck off now
That’s my hopecast based on that chart
Low teens next week anyway,that’s a start

patneve2

The trend is for a quite decent pooling of frigid air over far NE Europe with 1 or maybe 2 final cold waves coming down somewhere in Europe before winter is over. Anybody fancy some nice April snow? Funnily enough it was a snowfall in mid April 1999 that ignited my passion for cold and snowy weather. 6cm in Dublin airport that morning, melted by midday.

George Sunsnow

I don’t disagree on the probability whilst the jet is into Morocco
However when that rebounds back to where it’s supposed to be,any residual cold will move further east into Russia never hopefully to bother Ireland at least (maybe briefly east anglia) untill next winter
I’d expect that by the time further artic leakage occurs that the jet will be back hopefully before

nacho libre

George Sunsnow wrote: »

I
I’d expect that by the time further artic leakage occurs that the jet will be back hopefully before

Hopefully not. As when the zonal winds reverse it will take some time for the jet to return to normal. Bring on a late Match or April snow storm, ala 1917:D
If the possibility of an Easterly is mentioned in the latest UKMO update then it might be time to take notice.

George Sunsnow

nacho libre wrote: »

Hopefully not. As when the zonal winds reverse it will take some time for the jet to return to normal. Bring on a late Match or April snow storm, ala 1917:D
If the possibility of an Easterly is mentioned in the latest UKMO update then it might be time to take notice.

The jet isn’t going to stay barreling into Morocco for 4 or 5 weeks on the trot,it would be unprecedented ,the Sahara would flood
No nature I expect will say enough is enough and the jet will move more north
You’d need the jet down there for at least another fortnight for Siberian balls to be played
Highly unlikely,it’s a scientists fantasy in my opinion and it better be only that
I never rule out anything

nacho libre

George Sunsnow wrote: »

The jet isn’t going to stay barreling into Morocco for 4 or 5 weeks on the trot,it would be unprecedented ,the Sahara would flood
No nature I expect will say enough is enough and the jet will move more north
You’d need the jet down there for at least another fortnight for Siberian balls to be played
Highly unlikely,it’s a scientists fantasy in my opinion and it better be only that
I never rule out anything

While it's unlikely, as you say can't we rule anything out. Nature has been flipped on its head at the moment.
We are in unprecedented territory with the major straospheric warming followed by an even more extreme Canadian warming(which has never happened before in February) - without which our easterly would likely have failed.
As a result we have seen bizzare charts in the last couple of weeks.
Also as i mentioned in the other thread after December 2010, you'd have probably said it was highly unlikely you'd see an event akin to 1982 within 8 years.
Whatever happens strat experts will be studying the year 2018 for years to come. It seems we have a long way to go in fully understanding what goes on up there.

nacho libre

Close to round 2, albeit not as severe, if this verifies.

Also I notice the UKMO are in fact hinting at the possibility.

BLIZZARD7

nacho libre wrote: »

Close to round 2, albeit not as severe, if this verifies.

Also I notice the UKMO are in fact hinting at the possibility.

Yeah I always thought that 2-3 weeks after the initial blast we would see some sort of reload, how severe that may be is anyone's guess. It would be very unusual to see another potent blast but given the unusual strat developments I wouldn't rule it out. The Jet is all over the place still.

Paddy's weekend/following week to turn cold to very cold under a flow somehwere North of East is my call. Winter to have atleast one more go at us.

George Sunsnow

They may be studying rare events but they’re also studying normality
I haven’t had a 1982 since 1982
Long time

2010 was fine it happened in winter at the start of winter
I see no evidence that this episode will continue into summer as some fringe lunatics (none here) would like
So expect me to look for signs of spring in this thread tbh and only comment on wintry weather if it’s at greater than 50% probability
Currently I’d put it at 10

BLIZZARD7

George Sunsnow wrote: »

They may be studying rare events but they’re also studying normality
I haven’t had a 1982 since 1982
Long time

2010 was fine it happened in winter at the start of winter
I see no evidence that this episode will continue into summer as some fringe lunatics (none here) would like
So expect me to look for signs of spring in this thread tbh and only comment on wintry weather if it’s at greater than 50% probability
Currently I’d put it at 10

Yeah to be fair I would also enjoy warmer weather at this stage but I never turn my back on snow. I would go for a 50% chance of a colder spell before months end and a 10-15% chance of it being severe. Only basing this on our highly unusual current setup from a northern Hemisphere point of view and also I'm expecting this blank sun to really start to show its hand in the coming months.
It would not surprise me if we end the month with An IMT close to March 2013.

Anyway time will tell, hopefully our summer ends up dry and sunny and not like every other recent summer of years ending with the number 8.

nacho libre

George Sunsnow wrote: »

They may be studying rare events but they’re also studying normality
I haven’t had a 1982 since 1982
Long time

There are people in your county who say last week was equivalent to what happened in 1982. One thing is for certain, despite our love to complain, we are better equipped now to handle major snowfall now than we were back then. So perhaps your perception has been altered.

I do however agree such events are rare here. Some of us, if not most of us posting here, will more than likely be dead before an event like last week happens again.

George Sunsnow

Oh I had more snow than in 1982
That’s just because Emma dropped more moisture into the cold
The drifts in 82 lasted a month though because they were twice the size of Emma’s and had a week long freeze before a thaw
They won’t this time
Why were they smaller drifts?
Because here anyway Emma ripple drifted
It dropped drifts in the middle of fields aswell as at ditches meaning it’s drifts weren’t as high but they could have been

If the jet returns north, and it will, artic spillage will be muted on our side of Europe
It would be very unusual for it to stay put that far south outside of the norm for a month which it would be in 2 weeks time

nacho libre

George Sunsnow wrote: »

If the jet returns north, and it will, artic spillage will be muted on our side of Europe
It would be very unusual for it to stay put that far south outside of the norm for a month which it would be in 2 weeks time

The zonal winds are very weak now, and they are set to reverse after the third week in March, it would be unlikely the jet can return to its normal abode before April. It's not a certainity but it's very unlikely. As i keep saying we are in unprecedented territory. A few days of an easterly or a north easterly is not the form horse, more likely a continuation of the current situation, but when the UKMO mention the possibility it's worth taking note of.

JCX BXC

George Sunsnow wrote: »

Why were they smaller drifts?

Because the snow was wetter? Here in West Clare all drifts stopped when the temperature snook a little above 0c.

George Sunsnow

JCX BXC wrote: »

Because the snow was wetter? Here in West Clare all drifts stopped when the temperature snook a little above 0c.

Oh I agree as one explanation where that was the case in an area too
I don’t think the temp went above zero during the entire storm here,even the wet bulb
The snow never went flakey either
I just think in this area it was sheer quantity of snow
I walked across a 20 acre field during the storm Friday morning and I was Wellington deep,knee deep waist deep Wellington deep knee deep etc at various stages (and there was snow underneath that,I wasn’t sinking full depth)
The wind wasn’t fit to blow it all
Hence it’s still around today in great measure a week later despite several rains and lots of warm sunshine
That storm truly was a taste of Boston at home

Anyway we better shut up! This is the model output thread

nacho libre

Judah Cohen @judah47

It is late in the winter but this latest #PolarVortex forecast is supportive of yet another drainage of #cold air from Siberia towards Europe. #BeastFromTheEast, the sequel.

Ding. Ding.

Kermit.de.frog

There are signals there I pointed out the night before last. Seeing this drift in to some of the models. UKMO in particular but the GFS as well in upping thise heights over Scandinavia again...

gfs-0-192.png?12

Delicate evolutions though...

nacho libre

gfs-1-240.png.220d601fa93abffc9daf17d36a05ad7f.png

Getting Closer.

Hopefully M.T. Cranium is wrong, and it makes its way to Ireland in time for Easter:D

With April snowfall in mind, here is an article from the late Philip Eden about a snowfall in April 1908:

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/reports/philip-eden/The-1908-snowstorm.htm

Elmer Blooker

I've noticed that we could have a very cold second half of March but I'm not sure if I have the energy or interest for another chase.
The SSW and the most exciting charts we've seen in years had this forum buzzing and all for what? - a three day cold snap. Time for a break and here's hoping for next winter.

nacho libre

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

I've noticed that we could have a very cold second half of March but I'm not sure if I have the energy or interest for another chase.
The SSW and the most exciting charts we've seen in years had this forum buzzing and all for what? - a three day cold snap. Time for a break and here's hoping for next winter.

I just don't get where you are coming from. A three day cold snap that delivered the snowfall of a life time for many, yet you are still not happy. You should have known with a west based nao the chances of the cold spell being sustained was long odds. Scandi highs don't tend to stay around long, but at least with an east based nao it would more than likely have retrogressed to Greenland, rather than Canada. No snowy episode will be perfect- either it's too late in the year for some, not long enough, or too early in the year to deliver proper convective snow. We are a tiny island surrounded by a vast ocean, that brings mild currents our way, we have to
take what we can get. I'd love if we had a prolonged freeze with copious amounts of snow every winter, but they are exceedingly rare, sadly.

Kermit.de.frog

ECM 168 hrs

ECM1-168.GIF?09-0

So eh, yeah...things are looking more and more interesting.

George Sunsnow

Kermit I’m going to get a dog after that cat...

BLIZZARD7

ECM has a child of the beast knocking on our door - Could this really happen again? I'm thinking maybe...

ECM0-192.GIF?09-0

nacho libre

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

ECM has a child of the beast knocking on our door - Could this really happen again? I'm thinking maybe...

You beat me to it. Gerry Murphy might have to take another vacation:D

BLIZZARD7

A slight shift north and we get a direct hit... Now haven't we been here before?

ECM1-240.GIF?09-0

Kermit.de.frog

The trigger is as soon as 144 hrs on the ECM

ECM1-144.GIF?09-0

A lot of evolution to go yet but steps in the cold direction this afternoon for sure.

nacho libre

My confidence will increase if the next UKMO run shows something similar. This must be the Canadian warming coming into play,but as Sryan said the zonal wind reversal will not be as pronounced as last time so perhaps the odds against it happening are higher this time.

BLIZZARD7

nacho libre wrote: »

My confidence will increase if the next UKMO run shows something similar. This must be the Canadian warming coming into play,but as Sryan said the zonal wind reversal will not be as pronounced as last time so perhaps the odds against it happening are higher this time.

The thing is these patterns can establish with any zonal wind reversal, it doesn't have to be particularly deep (although it would help). This time of year is when zonal winds weaken anyway and we are approaching final strat warming time so I see little reason to think this couldn't happen again. Other than the fact twice in such a short space of time would be very unusual - we know neither weather or probability works like that though.

As kermit points out the trigger isn't really that far into FI so if this is going to happen we should know pretty soon - there shouldn't be the delays like with the first round.

Even if we get a direct hit again the sun will be that bit stronger again and so we would require deep deep cold for it to be high impact weather. I wouldn't rule it out though...