Spring 2018: General Discussion

Mobhi1

I can't see any cloud here in Dublin 11. There's only a slight breeze and it's 22.2C.

BLIZZARD7

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Note the boiling seas all around Epic Europa:

Looking Like a reverse tripole for the past few days, first week of the month looked closer to a normal tripole profile though. Bit of a mixed bag.

Any thoughts on this yet @syranbruen re next winter?

Feeling very warm in South Dublin at the moment, not sure what the temp is.

Xenji

Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Ireland
High intensity rainfall amounts in scattered thunderstorms during Friday, leading to spot flooding. As much as 50mm possible in a short time.

Issued: Thursday 31 May 2018 10:00

Valid from Friday 01 June 2018 12:00 to Friday 01 June 2018 22:00

Gonzo

Today easily feels like the warmest, most muggy day of the year so far. Very little sun so far today, but when it does shine it's very warm indeed. A complete contrast to the mostly cool breezes of the past week.

pauldry

its broken 19c in Sligo

9 days in a row now

Xenji

22.1C in Castlebar currently after a very dull start, it is also the most humid morning and afternoon we have had since this spell started, hovering around the 80% mark at the moment.

sryanbruen

Artane2002 wrote: »

Very little clouds around in Dublin 5, only a few to my southwest. Pleasant day for walking or activities that don't involve too much effort.

Yeah, same here. Have had the pool set up in the garden since yesterday afternoon. Thought I was a bit late on that and that I would have to wait 'til next week for the next nice day to be in it but today has been far far better than I expected. Lots and lots of sunshine.

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Looking Like a reverse tripole for the past few days, first week of the month looked closer to a normal tripole profile though. Bit of a mixed bag.

Any thoughts on this yet @syranbruen re next winter?

Feeling very warm in South Dublin at the moment, not sure what the temp is.

I continue to think positive about Winter 2018-19 for several reasons even with how the North Atlantic Ocean has fared with its SST profile this May.

Been trying to find some sort of analysis of the SSTs during May 1962 and I found this one below from NOAA which shows cool SSTs for the tropics like May 2018 but other than that, they're quite different from each other! On the May 1962 analysis, it shows some warm SSTs just to the south of Greenland which gives the hints of blocking - and indeed, Summer 1962 was a cool season following on from the coldest March of the 20th century.



A tripole is just one of many factors that we use to forecast the Winter, there are so many more considerations that even if we don't get a tripole, it doesn't matter much. It can change very readily into the Winter itself. 2009 was your clear example with no tripole in May, a positive NAO (just like 2018 and if you saw my post on May patterns, 2009 had a somewhat similar pattern to May 2018). What happened after May 2009? Ok, the BBQ Summer. But that's not my point :P, Winter 2009-10. Need not I remind you also that 2009-10 had El Nino Modoki? Look at the ENSO outlook I posted a few days ago for Winter 2018-19 currently where I also explain what an El Nino Modoki is and previous Winters it has occurred in: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057875863

Let's not forget too that 2018 has low solar activity to factor in.

Plenty of reasons to be positive about this year's coming Winter.

I'm not too focused on the Winter for now by the way because I want my Summer first.

JCX BXC

Clouded over now as showers approach from the SSE, still maintaining a temp of 22.6c, after an earlier high of 24.3c.

cute geoge

Beautiful morning but sky darkened from noon onwards and we got all mighty thundery down pour which lasted well over half a hour in listowel dry now but cloudy ...back to the same oul misery again!!!!

Mobhi1

It's gone mostly cloudy now and the breeze has picked up a bit and the temperature's down a bit to 20.8C.

Artane2002

I can't confirm but I think I can hear thunder in the distance. Still sunny but lots more clouds around. This turned out to be a better day than I expected.

JCX BXC

Artane2002 wrote: »

I can't confirm but I think I can hear thunder in the distance. Still sunny but lots more clouds around. This turned out to be a better day than I expected.

I doubt it, no real showers around Dublin.

Artane2002

JCX BXC wrote: »

I doubt it, no real showers around Dublin.

Looking at the radar, there was no thunder. It must have been some other loud noise. The clouds to my southwest darkened so I thought it may have been thunder from those clouds.

Gonzo

tomorrow and Saturday could be very wet in places with some very heavy showers around. Looks much dryer from Sunday.

Met Office Weekend Forecast:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O_iMH4mblsA

SleetAndSnow

Cloudy, Humid and about 20/21 degrees here in Cork City all day. Like the warmth, hate the cloud and humidness

Oscar Bravo

Another nice warm evening, 6pm reports

Mt.Dillon 24 degrees
Mullingar 23 degrees
Athenry 23 degrees
Dunsany 22 degrees

Mobhi1

There's a mixture of cloud and sunshine here now It feels a bit cool, especially when exposed to the breeze. It's currently 18.2C. The high today was 22.2C.

Clonmel1000

Running out of superlatives to describe these evenings love it.

mg1982

Good bit cooler here today due to cloud cover. Hoping will see some lightening displays tomorrow here in sligo.

mg1982

Just noticed a lovely red moon rising over the trees outside. Were we due a blood moon tonight.

DOCARCH

June 1st....Summer! General chat can continue here: https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2057827376&page=8

Artane2002

My opinion on Spring 2018 is probably going to be controversial. I thought it was excellent. You couldn't really have asked for more, from the snow in March to the brilliant May. More sunshine in April would have been nice but I'm not going to complain after such an interesting Spring.

Oneiric 3

BLIZZARD7 wrote: »

Looking Like a reverse tripole for the past few days, first week of the month looked closer to a normal tripole profile though. Bit of a mixed bag.

Interesting Blizzard, thanks.

sryanbruen

To further my Winter post for BLIZZARD7 and anybody else who is interested, I have a theory that as the Atlantic Ocean has dramatically cooled this year so far with a lot of cooler than average anomalies, could this set us up for a Scandinavian High to be more frequent?

A largely cold Atlantic is indicative of a negative AMO. We have not had a negative AMO since the 1980s when there were some quite cold and snowy Winters and one expects a negative AMO to take place in the 2020s.

To show what I mean, from windy.com, see how the Atlantic circulation has evolved this Spring with the block of high pressure to the east. The winds in the Atlantic are being directed from the Arctic and just off the west of Ireland sending the areas of low pressure southwards into the Azores and the tropics. Thus why the air has been so cold in these areas. Meanwhile, the winds then are directed to the eastern seaboard of the US where it has been very warm. The winds are originally sourced from the Arctic for here but are majorly moderated by the tropical waters.

My theory is that if this continues into Winter which is unlikely given the power of the Polar Vortex, it could promote Scandinavian blocking again with the low pressures from the Atlantic failing to make inroads across Ireland and be directed to the south with these winds. As we are well aware, Scandinavian blocking in Winter can produce some big ol' beasts indeed. Evidence showed that the Great Frost of 1740 was caused by a Scandi High.

sryanbruen

For Ireland, it may not have been a record breaker of a May though a nice pleasant month, the UK is a different story. It is provisionally the warmest (records since 1910) and sunniest (records since 1929) May on record for the UK.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/releases/2018/may-2018-statistics

sryanbruen

My estimations are correct on how May fared.

May 2018 monthly weather summary now has released and the main headline for the month was "Generally dry and sunny. Warm."

It was the driest May since 1991 at Casement Aerodrome with only 16.8mm of rainfall.

It wasn't as warm as May 2008 at any of the stations.

At the majority of stations, May 2018 was not as sunny as May 2017 or 2016 with Dublin Airport recording the highest sunshine total of 224 hours in comparison to 253 hours at Malin Head in May 2016 and 267 hours at Belmullet in May 2017.

https://cli.fusio.net/cli/bulletin/data/2018/05/sum_052018.pdf

I preferred May 2016 and especially 2017 personally.

sryanbruen

Spring 2018 seasonal weather summary is now released.

Highlights from it and including my time of comparing Springs:

- Very cold start, very warm finish.
- Coldest Spring since 2013 courtesy of a very cold March.
- Wettest Spring since 1964 at Valentia Observatory.
- Second wettest April on record at Cork Airport behind only 1966.
- Dullest Spring at Cork Airport since 1996.
- Dullest March since 2013.
- Coldest Spring day on record (1st March) widely.
- Coldest March since 2013.
- Coldest Spring temperature on record at Cork Airport.
- Warmest May since 2008.
- Wettest Spring day at Dunsany since 2009.
- Worst Spring blizzard since 1917 and worst blizzard overall since 1982.

https://cli.fusio.net/cli/bulletin/data/2018/14/sum_142018.pdf

Artane2002

sryanbruen wrote: »

Spring 2018 seasonal weather summary is now released.

Highlights from it and including my time of comparing Springs:

- Very cold start, very warm finish.
- Coldest Spring since 2013 courtesy of a very cold March.
- Wettest Spring since 1964 at Valentia Observatory.
- Second wettest April on record at Cork Airport behind only 1966.
- Dullest Spring at Cork Airport since 1996.
- Dullest March since 2013.
- Coldest Spring day on record (1st March) widely.
- Coldest March since 2013.
- Coldest Spring temperature on record at Cork Airport.
- Warmest May since 2008.
- Wettest Spring day at Dunsany since 2009.
- Worst Spring blizzard since 1917 and worst blizzard overall since 1982.

https://cli.fusio.net/cli/bulletin/data/2018/14/sum_142018.pdf

Very interesting spring! Many people consider spring and autumn boring but Spring 2018 shows you that Spring can be more interesting than some winters (looking at you, 2016-17).

Jpmarn

Some people I talk to say we hardly got a spring at all this year. It was late when winter left us after the first week of April. Six weeks later we got the early arrival of summer.